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time to jump in or stay on the fence?

By Mick Russom   Follow   Sat, 17 Mar 2012, 11:18am   5,585 views   48 comments
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I'm thinking of jumping into the market. I'm looking at a 4 / 2 1600 sq ft for 800k. The mortgage rate is locked in at 4%, 625000, 3000+100+840 (3940 PITI). Belmont Cipriani / Haskin Estates area.

I'm currently renting a 3/2 condo for 2550.

You guys think the market will flop on the bottom or start taking off?

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1. rootvg Follow Befriend (8) 1 threads 792 comments Danville, CA Premium

   9   3:10pm Sat 17 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   nw888 says Oh, and I don't think the market will take off for years and years. In fact I think it will continue to drop, and once interest rates go up it will drop some more. (sigh) It depends upon where you buy and what you buy and how you buy. If you buy in Livermore, where the traffic is unbearable and the schools are so-so and there's a lot of housing? Sure, you could get hurt. If you buy in Lafayette or Orinda and it's close to BART and there's a limited amount of housing available? You could do well. You probably would do well. 800K is too damn much money.

2. Nomograph Follow Befriend (1) 104 threads 2,851 comments

   10   4:28pm Sat 17 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (6)   Dislike   Mick Russom says I'm thinking of jumping into the market. I'm looking at a 4 / 2 1600 sq ft for 800k. I guess all that talk about having Iwog's boot on your neck and wanting to kill yourself was just Internet drama.

3. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   11   10:48pm Sat 17 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Nomograph says I guess all that talk about having Iwog's boot on your neck and wanting to kill yourself was just Internet drama. Good catch! What say you, Mick Russom?

4. bighorse Follow Befriend 3 threads 106 comments San Jose, CA

   12   12:34am Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   nw888 says once interest rates go up it will drop some more. Hasn't growing up taught you that life is not fair? That life lesson makes me believe that I will never see interest rates go up significantly for the rest of my life.

5. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   13   2:57am Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Interest rates will always be at whatever level is in the best interests of the big banks. Right now the big banks have a lot of bad debt on their books. So we'll have negative real interest rates (interest rates lower than the inflation rate) for a long time. Not to mention the huge government debts.

6. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 182 threads 4,614 comments Premium

   14   5:41am Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (1)   Protected   A bargain at twice the price! 10x after a few years! Never been a better time to buy!

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,651 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   15   10:43am Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike   Protected   Nomograph says I guess all that talk about having Iwog's boot on your neck and wanting to kill yourself was just Internet drama. iwog says I simply don't believe anything you're trying to sell here anymore. I don't believe you're suicidal. I don't believe your kids are starving. I think this is a bit of theater drama because you want to get your point across.

8. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   16   6:06pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   0.8 million dollars for a 1600 sqft shack? If you are going to bring that many Ben Franklins to the table it would be prudent to think about where this housing market is going. Make sure you can handle the market continuing to drop. If you can't then that 3/2 condo is perfect. Good luck and if you do end up buying here I would at the minimum setup an alternative investment that shorts the housing market. Bet against builders, banks, etc. It'll be a good hedge for you. Buy some out of the money puts for cheap.

9. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   17   6:19pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   RentingForHalfTheCost says If you are going to bring that many Ben Franklins to the table it would be prudent to think about where this housing market is going. Make sure you can handle the market continuing to drop. Exactly. I just can't understand how these housing bulls, who, you would think have at least half a brain, can talk about any kind of a bottom, where they are still selling 1600 sqft shacks in blue-collar Belmont for close to $1M. These sellers must still think it's f*n 2007 out there. Somebody, should smack them.

10. toothfairy Follow Befriend 40 threads 865 comments Oakland, CA

    18   7:10pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Notice how all of that "Dont buy a house!" stuff mysteriously disappeared from the front page? That should be a clue.

11. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    19   7:18pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   toothfairy says Notice how all of that "Dont buy a house!" stuff mysteriously disappeared from the front page? That should be a clue. Remember, the object of the bubble is to suck in as many suckers as possible, both on the way and on the way down. So, just because more housing bears are getting off the fence, doesn't mean that we are anywhere close to the bottom.

12. Bigsby Follow Befriend 2,843 comments Monterey, CA

    20   7:19pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Nomograph says I guess all that talk about having Iwog's boot on your neck and wanting to kill yourself was just Internet drama. iwog says I simply don't believe anything you're trying to sell here anymore. I don't believe you're suicidal. I don't believe your kids are starving. I think this is a bit of theater drama because you want to get your point across. I suppose if his kids are starving he could look for a house for $799,000 instead.

13. toothfairy Follow Befriend 40 threads 865 comments Oakland, CA

    21   7:20pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Usually the bottom is the point of maximum bearishness just like the top is maximum bullishness

14. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    22   8:14pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   toothfairy says Usually the bottom is the point of maximum bearishness just like the top is maximum bullishness Exactly, so if people are maximum bearish, they wouldn't be selling a 1600 sqft shack, without any land, for close to $1M in a blue-collar neighborhood. Bottom means blood is flowing, while some of the sellers around here, have yet to have their blood drawn.

15. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    23   8:27pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Nationally, the bubble is mostly deflated. At least according to Shiller. The Bay Area is still crazy. Maybe the Bay Area (along with Vancouver, BC) is importing the China RE bubble? http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

16. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    24   8:36pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says Nationally, the bubble is mostly deflated. At least according to Shiller. The Bay Area is still crazy. Maybe the Bay Area (along with Vancouver, BC) is importing the China RE bubble? We had our bubble start in 1998.. for all the wrong reasons. so we were the first and may well be the last... We may have lost the race to the bottom!

17. Katy Perry Follow Befriend 8 threads 530 comments Murrieta, CA

    25   9:31pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   BUY THaT MOther...

18. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    26   10:55pm Sun 18 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   There's a stranger in my bed, There's a pounding my head Glitter all over the room Pink flamingos in the pool I smell like a minibar DJ's passed out in the yard There's a mortgage on my desk And my banker owns the rest

19. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    27   4:43am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Some places never had a bubble given that the unemployment rate was 5%. Now the unemployment rate is 8%, shouldn't price goes below normal a little bit. Of course, the government and Fed print trillions of dollars to keep the price up helped.

20. joshuatrio Follow Befriend 41 threads 704 comments Monterey, CA

    28   8:20am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says There's a stranger in my bed, There's a pounding my head Glitter all over the room Pink flamingos in the pool I smell like a minibar DJ's passed out in the yard There's a mortgage on my desk And my banker owns the rest Nice.

21. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    29   8:24am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   toothfairy says Usually the bottom is the point of maximum bearishness just like the top is maximum bullishness You ain't seen nothing yet. Here are the bearish signs I need to see before even looking int the general fence direction, let alone getting back up on top. 1) No more "coming soon" signs on front yards. This is so obnoxious to me. Either you are selling or you are not. No one cares if you are thinking about selling but not ready. You don't see signs saying "Thinking of being a buyer soon". Keep it to yourself and save a tree. 2) Realtors starting to use valid arguments for attracting buyers, rather than the same fear tactics. People need to buy for house value (Price to rent, price to wages, etc.) and because the purchase will improve their life, not because they simply can. 3) More transparency in the whole real estate transaction process. Realtors need to push this as well rather than just saying they can be trusted. If you can truly be trusted then you would be more than willing to show it. Guilty until proven innocent to me. 4) The growth of FSBO, ebay real estate, craiglists and equivalent sites for selling land/houses. This has not nearly grown like I would expect considering the savings and transparency. Houses are just like autos. I don't see any difference. I can find a used auto, test drive it, bring it to an expert for an appraisal, find out where the title lives (owner or bank), check with the state to see if taxes are outstanding, etc. all without paying hardly anything. Then I can decide to buy or not buy without some agent spewing real estate vomit into my ear.

22. edvard2 Follow Befriend 38 threads 2,313 comments

    30   8:27am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I guess it all comes down to whether or not you can afford to buy the house. Nobody can guess what the housing market can or will do thus what could happen should not be a part of the decision to begin with anyway.

23. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    31   8:32am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   edvard2 says I guess it all comes down to whether or not you can afford to buy the house. Nobody can guess what the housing market can or will do thus what could happen should not be a part of the decision to begin with anyway. Just because you can afford doesn't mean you should. In 2005-2006 anyone with a pulse could afford. However, making $15/hr and looking at 500-600K houses while a realtor is telling you how much money you can make on owning this home is not right in my book. Affordability is way over-rated. Buy because there is value in the asset and it will improve your quality of life.

24. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    32   9:05am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says There's a stranger in my bed, There's a pounding my head Glitter all over the room Pink flamingos in the pool I smell like a minibar DJ's passed out in the yard There's a mortgage on my desk And my banker owns the rest And the correct answer is "Ding ding ding - Stockton!"

25. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    33   9:49am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   RentingForHalfTheCost says And the correct answer is "Ding ding ding - Stockton!" I don't get it. I know that Stockton is (or was) #1 in the USA for forclosures. I've never actually been there myself.

26. edvard2 Follow Befriend 38 threads 2,313 comments

    34   11:02am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Just because you can afford doesn't mean you should. In 2005-2006 anyone with a pulse could afford. However, making $15/hr and looking at 500-600K houses while a realtor is telling you how much money you can make on owning this home is not right in my book. Affordability is way over-rated. Buy because there is value in the asset and it will improve your quality of life. I was speaking in broad generalities. We're all going to have our own ideas of what 'affordable' is. To me 800k sounds really, really high. For others, and I assume the OP, its reasonable. Again- if you can afford it, as in you have the means to pay for it, a stable job, savings, a good retirement plan in action, and are not concerned about the home's future value ( because again- nobody knows what is going to happen) then why not?

27. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    35   11:20am Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says RentingForHalfTheCost says And the correct answer is "Ding ding ding - Stockton!" I don't get it. I know that Stockton is (or was) #1 in the USA for forclosures. I've never actually been there myself. Mini bar, pink flamingos, underwater mortgage, etc. Just sounded like you were describing Stockton. I have only driven threw there on my way to Kirkwood or Angles Camp. One time I stopped for gas off of the freeway and had to run in to pay because the pump wasn't working properly. Well, my wife was pretty freaked out when I returned because there was purple running lights, chrome, reverse spinning wheels, 808 bass, all around us. I felt okay, but to my wife the situation was pretty unnerving. Lets just say we fill up long before Stockton now. ;)

28. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    36   12:11pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Ah ok. Makes sense now ;-) I've been to the Bay Area a few times but never went to Stockton. I heard it was #1 for forclosures in the USA at one point.

29. Netreality Follow Befriend 1 threads 16 comments Menlo Park, CA

    37   1:03pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ignore comments from people that don't live on the peninsula. Avg Incomes of "buyers" here are $200k-400k annually. Avg incomes in the town/area mean nothing, because many buyers have stock, inheiritance, etc. The avg incomes of people that are not possible buyers just don't matter. Apple stock just rose from $500 to $600 a share recently. How many people just made $100k+ on that rise recently? Lots. It's not paper earnings if you sell :) 800k sounds cheap to me! Not saying buy, just saying that you can probably rent it out for $3500-4500, depending on school district and quality.

30. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    38   1:39pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   What $800k will buy outside of the SF Bay Area:

31. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    39   1:48pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Netreality says Ignore comments from people that don't live on the peninsula. Avg Incomes of "buyers" here are $200k-400k annually. Avg incomes in the town/area mean nothing, because many buyers have stock, inheiritance, etc. The avg incomes of people that are not possible buyers just don't matter. Apple stock just rose from $500 to $600 a share recently. How many people just made $100k+ on that rise recently? Lots. It's not paper earnings if you sell :) 800k sounds cheap to me! Not saying buy, just saying that you can probably rent it out for $3500-4500, depending on school district and quality. Right you are. How foolish of us to question the value of a 800K pile of rubble. I guess all these people in Belmont and surrounding area are not paying their mortgage because they are stuffing their mattress when their 200-400K salaries. Now that is a good saving technique. If you can rent a 800K house on the peninsula for $4500 then I haven't seen it yet. For 4500 I can rent a place in Hillsborough and we all know what 800k gets you up there.

32. rootvg Follow Befriend (8) 1 threads 792 comments Danville, CA Premium

    40   1:51pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says What $800k will buy outside of the SF Bay Area: Sure, but then I wouldn't have a job to pay for it. Prices are high because there are jobs and then there are people here with money they've made or inherited and it's a hell of a nice place to live. The BA is too expensive for most people. We almost moved but found something we could afford. We got lucky. Most people do not. Having said all that, you don't have to spend eight tenths of a million bucks to live here. We didn't.

33. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    41   1:57pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says stuffing their mattress when their 200-400K salaries. State income tax with higher rates is kicking in if Brown gets his way... http://www.mercurynews.com/california-budget/ci_20171655/brown-teachers-union-negotiating-deal-rewrite-november-tax Brown's revised plan would put a larger burden on individuals who earn $500,000 or more a year, raising their income tax rate by 3 percentage points instead of his earlier plan for a 2 percentage point increase, while reducing his sales tax hike proposal from a half-cent to a quarter-cent. Those earning $300,000 to $500,000 would also see more of a tax hike: a 2 percentage point increase, rather than a 1.5 percentage point hike. The new proposal also is expected to extend the period of the income tax hike from five years to seven.

34. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    42   2:01pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Netreality says Apple stock just rose from $500 to $600 a share recently. How many people just made $100k+ on that rise recently? Lots. It's not paper earnings if you sell :) Not the people who bought during the bubble! their cash burn is eaten up by their mortgage payments. The "Forced Savings" RE agents were talking about didnt work well for these owners.

35. nw888 Follow Befriend (2) 10 threads 132 comments

    43   2:02pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rootvg says It depends upon where you buy and what you buy and how you buy. (sigh) This has nothing to do with the MARKET does it?

36. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    44   2:03pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   rootvg says Sure, but then I wouldn't have a job to pay for it. So then a high paying job in the Bay Area gets you nothing more than a shitty job outside of the Bay Area. In both places, people are living paycheck to paycheck. What's the point of going to school for a high-tech career then? Yikes.

37. rootvg Follow Befriend (8) 1 threads 792 comments Danville, CA Premium

    45   2:05pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   nw888 says rootvg says It depends upon where you buy and what you buy and how you buy. (sigh) This has nothing to do with the MARKET does it? Sure it does. If you end up over your head, it's YOUR fault. You didn't do the math. You don't know the market. We were told over and over and over that we'd never get into Danville for what we paid. Guess what? They were WRONG, all of them. How can it be any different anywhere else?

38. rootvg Follow Befriend (8) 1 threads 792 comments Danville, CA Premium

    46   2:08pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says rootvg says Sure, but then I wouldn't have a job to pay for it. So then a high paying job in the Bay Area gets you nothing more than a shitty job outside of the Bay Area. In both places, people are living paycheck to paycheck. What's the point of going to school for a high-tech career then? Yikes. That response is SO typical of the Rust Belt: life's a bag of shit everywhere so why try? Except that it's NOT. My lifestyle won't change one bit in the new house. We have some improvements to pay for and I won't fly for awhile until that's gone but other than, nothing much will change...because we bought what we could afford. You need to come out here and visit. You might never go home.

39. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 40 threads 2,062 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    47   7:09pm Mon 19 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says What $800k will buy outside of the SF Bay Area: Then here is what you get in Belmont for that loot. Maybe you can get some rent money from all the rodents that live in the attic. http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Belmont/2111-Coronet-BLVD-100_81201442.htm

40. FunTime Follow Befriend (3) 41 threads 835 comments San Francisco, CA

    48   4:24pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says What $800k will buy outside of the SF Bay Area: A chance to really mess up the environment. Nice shot of the middle of nowhere. We ought to leave nature alone people.

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