calibrating the "time" component in the TMRCA will still require the ability to convert "step events" when an STR changes from length X to length X+1 or X-1 to how often those take place over time, the so called molecular clock
You should be able to estimate the Events to MRCA by calculating the most parsimonious ancestor (least number of steps to all extant Kill*la samples), then for the comparison between the MRCA and each Kill*la sample you can get the mean and variance estimator for "steps to MRCA"
The should be published estimators for the mean and variance for STS events per unit time.
the TMRCA estimate is then biased (lower) since:
1) small number of samples, might not have found all the Kill*la variation
2) most parsimonious ancestor is shortest path
you can use both the variance on the steps to MRCA as well as STS events per unit time combined to get upper and lower confidence bounds on the TMRCA estimate
I thought that many of these calculations were being done automagically at places supporting the surname project:
Thanks for the lead. I'll poke around dnaancestryproject.com, since my own understanding of Bayesian statistics is poor.
I know that familytreedna.com does have a calculator that takes into account the probability of each locus value, but they do not let you use it unless you pay for their DNA test first. Not very friendly of them.
im the guy who writes the code himself in c++ (or python perl, php, whatever, its been a while since a few others, but I'm not opposed to pushing stack in assembler, given hours of concentration) perhaps we can take the population genetics discussion off line, you know my contacts
dnaancestry is likely very $ centered, the web business model is all trying to figure a way to make $, we all know that problem