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Real Price discovery has started in high-end cities in LA

By dunnross   Follow   Tue, 20 Mar 2012, 11:55pm   8,369 views   57 comments
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Real price discovery has started in middle to high end neighborhoods in LA. Bay Area fortress is next:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/short-sales-foreclosures-pasadena-foreclosure-and-short-sale-shadow-inventory-2012/

My prediction - 40% haircut in 3 years or less for BA fortress.

Most Liked Comments

1. AlexG Follow Befriend 5 comments South Pasadena, CA

   1   1:19am Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Patience, patience friends - this WILL happen, and the longer our insane government engages in its craziness the more painful the eventual collapse is going to be... I've seen this movie before: reforms that were badly needed in Soviet Union in late 70s and early 80s had been rejected because, com' on it was the USSR, for god sake - the happiest place on earth, the country where working people were in charge, the place where we were brothers' keepers, sisters' keepers, and on and on... recognize familiar crap? Well, you all know how that ended... we are getting there, it will be just a little longer, not much... :-(

2. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   2   7:01am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says This is the same prediction you had three years ago. My prediction did come true, but only partially, because I didn't think that gov't will come in with their massive bailouts in such a big way. However, now that the gov't is broke, it's not going to happen again.

3. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   3   8:15am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   A lot of assets are overvalued right now thanks to the free money from Uncle Ben. When "cash is trash", that cash is used to buy up assets.

4. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   4   11:29am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says In the form of mortgages. The printed money will go to the banks to be lent out at interest. Ahh,I wasn't counting on banks giving away 6 times the persons income.LOL. Return of liar loans.

5. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   5   7:25am Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   rowemoore says The properties mentioned are in crappy school districts. Not exactly a fortress. Housing bulls will always find excuses for why prices are not falling in "their" neighborhoods. For example, where I live, last year it was the "better schools" which was a factor in making the neighborhood more bullet-proof. This year, prices have come down in the "better schools" area too, so the new excuse is the "golf course".

6. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

   6   12:58pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   AlexG says Patience, patience friends - this WILL happen I so hope you are right. The new available properties in my LA area today are all 'flips', some investor somehow got a good deal, went to Home Depot, and is now asking 50K more. It is sickening to me.

7. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   7   2:51pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   look out below. Realtors will need to switch careers. 3% of 100K is not a lot of money when you get your cut. I need a gardener if anyone needs work. ;)

8. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   8   5:11pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   David9 says RentingForHalfTheCost says There will be no buyers at half what their asking. Greedy scum bags. You are right. I guess what confuses me personally is why it is taking so long. I remember I couldn't give my previous condo away for 10 years! Just need to remember that. Sales are historically low. What sales there are are over half distressed. The market sucks. People can ask what they want, they just will not sell. All the fools here talking about houses with multiple bids and sales over asking are all smoking crack. They are the same fools that couldn't get a descent degree. The bottom feeders always try to prey on the weak. Use scare tactics to generate a life for themselves. They are scum and right now should learn that their dribble has crippled this country. We talk about other nationalities here in vain, when the real backlash should be on the real estate industry. They suck, they all suck.

9. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

   9   9:54pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   rufita11 says for $200K more than they paid. Yes, that too, must have been the Redfin email of the day as most investors are adding on more than that when attempting to sell their investment properties. Repeating myself, I feel this is discrimination against anyone who does not have boat loads of cash. And this is not exclusive to 'Home Depot Flippers'. At auction.com, many properties are 'cash only'. But, way of the world I suppose, doesn't mean I'm going to be a fool.

10. nw888 Follow Befriend (2) 10 threads 132 comments

    10   12:08am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   This is great news!

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,446 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    11   6:52am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says My prediction - 40% haircut in 3 years or less for BA fortress. This is the same prediction you had three years ago.

12. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    12   7:04am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says However, now that the gov't is broke, it's not going to happen again. They'll just print more money.

13. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    13   7:28am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says They'll just print more money. And how exactly will I get a big chunk of that money? My employer says,I can't have it. :)

14. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    14   7:42am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well of course YOU won't. Neither will I.

15. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    15   7:57am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says Well of course YOU won't. Neither will I. So,how exactly will that money flow in the hand of buyers to propel the house prices?

16. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    16   8:13am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   In the form of mortgages. The printed money will go to the banks to be lent out at interest.

17. Mobi Follow Befriend 1 threads 238 comments

    17   8:42am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says My prediction - 40% haircut in 3 years or less for BA fortress. You need a financial collapse on the scale of 2008/2009 (or bigger than that) to make it happen. It may or may not be within 3 years.

18. Philistine Follow Befriend 485 comments Los Angeles, CA

    18   8:43am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   This article is silliness. LA the city has held steady in mid- and upper-end neighborhoods since the nationwide declines of 2008. Pasadena is a great place but it is not a neighborhood of LA. The suburban sprawl of shee-shee OC and dirtville Inland Empire is not LA, either. It's dumb how prices in LA have actually *not* dropped in almost three years and are showing a trend of slight increases so far this year. This is like when people I know back in the northeast talk about price declines in NYC and then say it's in places like the Bronx, Jersey City, etc. Sorry, but Valley Stream is a completely different place from Manhattan or Brooklyn.

19. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 905 comments Ross, CA

    19   8:54am Wed 21 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The properties mentioned are in crappy school districts. Not exactly a fortress. I predict - and I've never been wrong with any of my predictions here - that any neighborhood with 9+ public schools (as rated by greatschools) will see modest price increases over the next decade. Once they build the walls and become "gated communities" the fortress hoods will be even more popular.

20. citizen jpp Follow Befriend 30 comments Wallingford, PA

    20   7:59am Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I was reviewing the pricing of nice homes for the Riveria area of Santa Barbara and it looks like 2011 was a very bad year.