Real price discovery has started in middle to high end neighborhoods in LA. Bay Area fortress is next:
My prediction - 40% haircut in 3 years or less for BA fortress.
Real Price discovery has started in high-end cities in LA
By dunnross Follow Tue, 20 Mar 2012, 11:55pm 8,373 views 57 comments
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This is great news!
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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dunnross says
This is the same prediction you had three years ago.
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San Jose, CA
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iwog says
My prediction did come true, but only partially, because I didn't think that gov't will come in with their massive bailouts in such a big way. However, now that the gov't is broke, it's not going to happen again.
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Corning, NY
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dunnross says
They'll just print more money.
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wthrfrk80 says
And how exactly will I get a big chunk of that money? My employer says,I can't have it. :)
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Corning, NY
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Well of course YOU won't. Neither will I.
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wthrfrk80 says
So,how exactly will that money flow in the hand of buyers to propel the house prices?
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Corning, NY
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In the form of mortgages.
The printed money will go to the banks to be lent out at interest.
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Corning, NY
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A lot of assets are overvalued right now thanks to the free money from Uncle Ben. When "cash is trash", that cash is used to buy up assets.
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dunnross says
You need a financial collapse on the scale of 2008/2009 (or bigger than that) to make it happen. It may or may not be within 3 years.
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Los Angeles, CA
This article is silliness. LA the city has held steady in mid- and upper-end neighborhoods since the nationwide declines of 2008.
Pasadena is a great place but it is not a neighborhood of LA. The suburban sprawl of shee-shee OC and dirtville Inland Empire is not LA, either. It's dumb how prices in LA have actually *not* dropped in almost three years and are showing a trend of slight increases so far this year.
This is like when people I know back in the northeast talk about price declines in NYC and then say it's in places like the Bronx, Jersey City, etc. Sorry, but Valley Stream is a completely different place from Manhattan or Brooklyn.
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Ross, CA
The properties mentioned are in crappy school districts. Not exactly a fortress.
I predict - and I've never been wrong with any of my predictions here - that any neighborhood with 9+ public schools (as rated by greatschools) will see modest price increases over the next decade.
Once they build the walls and become "gated communities" the fortress hoods will be even more popular.
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wthrfrk80 says
Ahh,I wasn't counting on banks giving away 6 times the persons income.LOL. Return of liar loans.
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dunnross says
Let me rephrase that for you. Your prediction was completely wrong.
Like all the other predictions you have made...
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South Pasadena, CA
Patience, patience friends - this WILL happen, and the longer our insane government engages in its craziness the more painful the eventual collapse is going to be... I've seen this movie before: reforms that were badly needed in Soviet Union in late 70s and early 80s had been rejected because, com' on it was the USSR, for god sake - the happiest place on earth, the country where working people were in charge, the place where we were brothers' keepers, sisters' keepers, and on and on... recognize familiar crap? Well, you all know how that ended... we are getting there, it will be just a little longer, not much... :-(
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San Jose, CA
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rowemoore says
Housing bulls will always find excuses for why prices are not falling in "their" neighborhoods. For example, where I live, last year it was the "better schools" which was a factor in making the neighborhood more bullet-proof. This year, prices have come down in the "better schools" area too, so the new excuse is the "golf course".
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Wallingford, PA
I was reviewing the pricing of nice homes for the Riveria area of Santa Barbara and it looks like 2011 was a very bad year.
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This is interesting because prices do still seem high in many of these markets but people seem to be willing to take a leap of faith and purchase. Nationally with low mortgage rates it probably makes total sense to buy if you plan on staying around the area for a long time. Even in many areas of California there are some good deals. Some cities especially in the Bay Area are out to lunch even today. I’m curious to hear of the price point at which many are willing to jump in and more importantly, in what location.
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Tarzana, CA
AlexG says
I so hope you are right. The new available properties in my LA area today are all 'flips', some investor somehow got a good deal, went to Home Depot, and is now asking 50K more. It is sickening to me.
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Ross, CA
dunnross says
show me the fortress neighborhood in CA where public schools are 9 or better (rated by greatschools) where you think prices will fall by 40%.
I'm not a housing bull - I agree prices overall will continue to fall. But the 1% have LOTS of cash and want to live in SAFE areas for their kiddies with GREAT schools. They will pay for this. I'm not saying prices will skyrocket, but they will go up.
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Not sure if it helps, but we've started noticing price drops in the neighborhood and on some commercial real estate.
There was this seller who would not let go of his lot for under $950,000 as of last week. Today I got an email from him that he'll let it go for $499,000. The price is still too high for the area, but it's getting closer to reality.
He also hasn't paid his property taxes in 4 years too, so maybe some folks like that are getting a little antsy...
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FortWayne says
$950,000 to $499,000? The seller isn't too subtle. This is definitely a California thing. In other states you will see small adjustments of $1,000 or so until the price finds a critical market. Going from nearly one million dollars to half a million dollars is just hoping you hit the real estate lottery.
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Pleasanton, CA
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look out below. Realtors will need to switch careers. 3% of 100K is not a lot of money when you get your cut. I need a gardener if anyone needs work. ;)
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Pasadena, CA
someone needs to tell the dude 100 yrds away from my townhouse that his townhouse isn't worth $799k when I'm only paying $1750/month on rent and have one less bedroom AND a pool! Then someone needs to tell the guy 1 block away from me in S. Lake, Pasadena area that his 800 sqft, 100 yr old tool shed with new floors isn't worth $900k. Then one more block down on S. Lake, theres a $1.7 mil condo that's been on the market for 3 years!!! It's only 2500 sqft with no amenities and a $650/month HOA. But according to all the realtors i met there, Pasadena only goes up in value. Time to buy.
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Los Angeles, CA
in LA its simple....the good houses sell fast, have multiple bidders, if you really want the place you have to be able and willing to go above asking price...the shitty houses stay on the market - that's how it is. I have multiple friends looking and its very frustrating getting bid out from cash offers. If you do FHA, chances are slim to get a place because there is either a cash offer or a 20% down beating you.
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Pleasanton, CA
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SubOink says
Shouldn't be frustrating. The one that win the bid will be frustrated when the prices collapse. The one losing are getting stronger and stronger financially every day. I'm sick of playing with realtors on this site. The sky is falling. Time to wake up.
And OW, don't worry about telling any seller anything. Once the idiot buyers with all cash dry up they will realize the jam they put themselves into. There will be no buyers at half what their asking. Greedy scum bags.
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Tarzana, CA
RentingForHalfTheCost says
You are right. I guess what confuses me personally is why it is taking so long. I remember I couldn't give my previous condo away for 10 years! Just need to remember that.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Ok, Chicken Little...
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San Jose, CA
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rowemoore says
We've already determined that no 1%er would ever set foot in most of the chicken-coops which the Bay Area has to offer. But, I bet that there is much less of the 1%ers left in the Bay Area, than most people around here are willing to acknowledge. It would be interesting to see a map of where exactly these 1%ers live.
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Pleasanton, CA
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David9 says
Sales are historically low. What sales there are are over half distressed. The market sucks. People can ask what they want, they just will not sell. All the fools here talking about houses with multiple bids and sales over asking are all smoking crack. They are the same fools that couldn't get a descent degree. The bottom feeders always try to prey on the weak. Use scare tactics to generate a life for themselves. They are scum and right now should learn that their dribble has crippled this country. We talk about other nationalities here in vain, when the real backlash should be on the real estate industry. They suck, they all suck.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Why do you keep posting that? It is simply not true anymore. And prices aren't falling any more either.
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Los Angeles, CA
The first time we looked to buy was 2003, so did many of my friends and peers. We decided that we couldn't afford it and backed off...rented...been saving money for almost 10 years and some people just hate renting (incl. me) and want to move on in their lives. Not worry about housing.
There are plenty of people that are middle class income that can afford a 500k home and are buying them now.
If you believe that prices will get slashed then you can sit back in all peace and wait it out. It may never happen but you know that yourself.
Fact is, good homes sell fast. Bad homes stay on the market forever.
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Boulder Creek, CA
tatupu70 says
Uh, and now you're being delusional. The data is pretty clear that they are.
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JohnJohn24 says
I agree, in California there seems to be a common tactic of advertising a low list price in order to get traffic and start a bidding war. Other places have other games, but usually sellers intend to sell at the list price. California's laws on false advertising, which help retail consumers, should be extended to real estate pricing.
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curious2 says
So much so that prices have tanked...not a very bright tactic.
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SubOink says
If your from LA, and been through the late 80s early 90s, it was later known.. the best homes that saw higher sales and run up in prices were the hardest to get crushsed.. Beverly Hills included. This time it will not be all that different, a very very long correction in the BA.
http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1995OFA06.shtm
" Hardest hit were homes in areas that experienced the fastest run-up in prices in the late 1980s. In Orange County, loss sales accounted for 45.3 percent of the last three month's sales (see chart), in Ventura County it was 38.0 percent. "
I really dont know where people get the this BS that their Good (high end) homes are immune to price cuts...
Steven Spielberg Sells Malibu Home at a Loss
"Not everyone is making money in the California real estate boom. Director Steven Spielberg just sold his oceanfront Malibu home, not his primary residence, for approximately $4.5 million or $1.5 million less than he paid for the property when he purchased it in 1992. His loss is his lucky buyer's gain."
http://realtytimes.com/rtnews/reu2pages/19980819_celebrity.htm?open&Vol=70&ID=sampleplus
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thomas.wong1986 says
They've dropped 50% in inland areas like Sacramento, and 80% in subprime areas like the scarier parts of Oakland, but SF's high end remains near peak levels. The subprime tsunami lifted everything up. In Japan, the actual tsunami lifted fishing boats onto rooftops of concrete buildings, and left them there. That's how California's high end properties look to me: they obviously don't belong up there, but it isn't obvious how the situation will get sorted out.
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SFBAY.. first to get into the bubble from Palo Alto and that is where it will end.
As far as "high end".. take a drive to Marin.. than compare to that to the peninsula/so. bay..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tiburon/174-Avenida-Miraflores-94920/home/599522
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Belvedere-Tiburon/75-Eastview-Ave-94920/home/816526
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Ross, CA
dunnross says
WTF? Ignore. Goodbye!
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rowemoore says
Dunnross is right! and the truth hurts...