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Real Price discovery has started in high-end cities in LA

By dunnross   Follow   Tue, 20 Mar 2012, 11:55pm   8,385 views   57 comments
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Real price discovery has started in middle to high end neighborhoods in LA. Bay Area fortress is next:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/short-sales-foreclosures-pasadena-foreclosure-and-short-sale-shadow-inventory-2012/

My prediction - 40% haircut in 3 years or less for BA fortress.

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1. JohnJohn24 Follow Befriend 3 threads 3 comments

   18   12:08pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   This is interesting because prices do still seem high in many of these markets but people seem to be willing to take a leap of faith and purchase. Nationally with low mortgage rates it probably makes total sense to buy if you plan on staying around the area for a long time. Even in many areas of California there are some good deals. Some cities especially in the Bay Area are out to lunch even today. I’m curious to hear of the price point at which many are willing to jump in and more importantly, in what location.

2. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

   19   12:58pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   AlexG says Patience, patience friends - this WILL happen I so hope you are right. The new available properties in my LA area today are all 'flips', some investor somehow got a good deal, went to Home Depot, and is now asking 50K more. It is sickening to me.

3. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

   20   1:41pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says rowemoore says The properties mentioned are in crappy school districts. Not exactly a fortress. Housing bulls will always find excuses for why prices are not falling in "their" neighborhoods. For example, where I live, last year it was the "better schools" which was a factor in making the neighborhood more bullet-proof. This year, prices have come down in the "better schools" area too, so the new excuse is the "golf course". show me the fortress neighborhood in CA where public schools are 9 or better (rated by greatschools) where you think prices will fall by 40%. I'm not a housing bull - I agree prices overall will continue to fall. But the 1% have LOTS of cash and want to live in SAFE areas for their kiddies with GREAT schools. They will pay for this. I'm not saying prices will skyrocket, but they will go up.

4. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 103 threads 3,768 comments

   21   1:45pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Not sure if it helps, but we've started noticing price drops in the neighborhood and on some commercial real estate. There was this seller who would not let go of his lot for under $950,000 as of last week. Today I got an email from him that he'll let it go for $499,000. The price is still too high for the area, but it's getting closer to reality. He also hasn't paid his property taxes in 4 years too, so maybe some folks like that are getting a little antsy...

5. JohnJohn24 Follow Befriend 3 threads 3 comments

   22   2:10pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   FortWayne says Not sure if it helps, but we've started noticing price drops in the neighborhood and on some commercial real estate. There was this seller who would not let go of his lot for under $950,000 as of last week. Today I got an email from him that he'll let it go for $499,000. The price is still too high for the area, but it's getting closer to reality. He also hasn't paid his property taxes in 4 years too, so maybe some folks like that are getting a little antsy... Quality Auto Repair Since 1979 $950,000 to $499,000? The seller isn't too subtle. This is definitely a California thing. In other states you will see small adjustments of $1,000 or so until the price finds a critical market. Going from nearly one million dollars to half a million dollars is just hoping you hit the real estate lottery.

6. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,036 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   23   2:51pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   look out below. Realtors will need to switch careers. 3% of 100K is not a lot of money when you get your cut. I need a gardener if anyone needs work. ;)

7. OW Follow Befriend 9 comments Pasadena, CA

   24   2:52pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   someone needs to tell the dude 100 yrds away from my townhouse that his townhouse isn't worth $799k when I'm only paying $1750/month on rent and have one less bedroom AND a pool! Then someone needs to tell the guy 1 block away from me in S. Lake, Pasadena area that his 800 sqft, 100 yr old tool shed with new floors isn't worth $900k. Then one more block down on S. Lake, theres a $1.7 mil condo that's been on the market for 3 years!!! It's only 2500 sqft with no amenities and a $650/month HOA. But according to all the realtors i met there, Pasadena only goes up in value. Time to buy.

8. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 705 comments Los Angeles, CA

   25   3:33pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   in LA its simple....the good houses sell fast, have multiple bidders, if you really want the place you have to be able and willing to go above asking price...the shitty houses stay on the market - that's how it is. I have multiple friends looking and its very frustrating getting bid out from cash offers. If you do FHA, chances are slim to get a place because there is either a cash offer or a 20% down beating you.

9. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,036 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   26   4:16pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SubOink says in LA its simple....the good houses sell fast, have multiple bidders, if you really want the place you have to be able and willing to go above asking price...the shitty houses stay on the market - that's how it is. I have multiple friends looking and its very frustrating getting bid out from cash offers. If you do FHA, chances are slim to get a place because there is either a cash offer or a 20% down beating you. Shouldn't be frustrating. The one that win the bid will be frustrated when the prices collapse. The one losing are getting stronger and stronger financially every day. I'm sick of playing with realtors on this site. The sky is falling. Time to wake up. And OW, don't worry about telling any seller anything. Once the idiot buyers with all cash dry up they will realize the jam they put themselves into. There will be no buyers at half what their asking. Greedy scum bags.

10. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    27   4:22pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says There will be no buyers at half what their asking. Greedy scum bags. You are right. I guess what confuses me personally is why it is taking so long. I remember I couldn't give my previous condo away for 10 years! Just need to remember that.

11. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    28   5:04pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   RentingForHalfTheCost says The sky is falling. Time to wake up. Ok, Chicken Little...

12. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    29   5:10pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says But the 1% have LOTS of cash and want to live in SAFE areas for their kiddies with GREAT schools. We've already determined that no 1%er would ever set foot in most of the chicken-coops which the Bay Area has to offer. But, I bet that there is much less of the 1%ers left in the Bay Area, than most people around here are willing to acknowledge. It would be interesting to see a map of where exactly these 1%ers live.

13. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,036 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    30   5:11pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   David9 says RentingForHalfTheCost says There will be no buyers at half what their asking. Greedy scum bags. You are right. I guess what confuses me personally is why it is taking so long. I remember I couldn't give my previous condo away for 10 years! Just need to remember that. Sales are historically low. What sales there are are over half distressed. The market sucks. People can ask what they want, they just will not sell. All the fools here talking about houses with multiple bids and sales over asking are all smoking crack. They are the same fools that couldn't get a descent degree. The bottom feeders always try to prey on the weak. Use scare tactics to generate a life for themselves. They are scum and right now should learn that their dribble has crippled this country. We talk about other nationalities here in vain, when the real backlash should be on the real estate industry. They suck, they all suck.

14. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,652 comments

    31   6:40pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   RentingForHalfTheCost says Sales are historically low Why do you keep posting that? It is simply not true anymore. And prices aren't falling any more either.

15. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 705 comments Los Angeles, CA

    32   6:52pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The first time we looked to buy was 2003, so did many of my friends and peers. We decided that we couldn't afford it and backed off...rented...been saving money for almost 10 years and some people just hate renting (incl. me) and want to move on in their lives. Not worry about housing. There are plenty of people that are middle class income that can afford a 500k home and are buying them now. If you believe that prices will get slashed then you can sit back in all peace and wait it out. It may never happen but you know that yourself. Fact is, good homes sell fast. Bad homes stay on the market forever.

16. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 449 comments Boulder Creek, CA

    33   8:38pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   tatupu70 says And prices aren't falling any more either. Uh, and now you're being delusional. The data is pretty clear that they are.

17. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,265 comments Premium

    34   8:43pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JohnJohn24 says $950,000 to $499,000? The seller isn't too subtle. This is definitely a California thing. I agree, in California there seems to be a common tactic of advertising a low list price in order to get traffic and start a bidding war. Other places have other games, but usually sellers intend to sell at the list price. California's laws on false advertising, which help retail consumers, should be extended to real estate pricing.

18. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    35   8:51pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   curious2 says I agree, in California there seems to be a common tactic of advertising a low list price in order to get traffic and start a bidding war. So much so that prices have tanked...not a very bright tactic.

19. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    36   8:56pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SubOink says If you believe that prices will get slashed then you can sit back in all peace and wait it out. It may never happen but you know that yourself. Fact is, good homes sell fast. Bad homes stay on the market forever. If your from LA, and been through the late 80s early 90s, it was later known.. the best homes that saw higher sales and run up in prices were the hardest to get crushsed.. Beverly Hills included. This time it will not be all that different, a very very long correction in the BA. http://archive.dqnews.com/AA1995OFA06.shtm " Hardest hit were homes in areas that experienced the fastest run-up in prices in the late 1980s. In Orange County, loss sales accounted for 45.3 percent of the last three month's sales (see chart), in Ventura County it was 38.0 percent. " I really dont know where people get the this BS that their Good (high end) homes are immune to price cuts... Steven Spielberg Sells Malibu Home at a Loss "Not everyone is making money in the California real estate boom. Director Steven Spielberg just sold his oceanfront Malibu home, not his primary residence, for approximately $4.5 million or $1.5 million less than he paid for the property when he purchased it in 1992. His loss is his lucky buyer's gain." http://realtytimes.com/rtnews/reu2pages/19980819_celebrity.htm?open&Vol=70&ID=sampleplus

20. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,265 comments Premium

    37   8:57pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas.wong1986 says So much so that prices have tanked...not a very bright tactic. They've dropped 50% in inland areas like Sacramento, and 80% in subprime areas like the scarier parts of Oakland, but SF's high end remains near peak levels. The subprime tsunami lifted everything up. In Japan, the actual tsunami lifted fishing boats onto rooftops of concrete buildings, and left them there. That's how California's high end properties look to me: they obviously don't belong up there, but it isn't obvious how the situation will get sorted out.

21. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    38   9:07pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SFBAY.. first to get into the bubble from Palo Alto and that is where it will end. As far as "high end".. take a drive to Marin.. than compare to that to the peninsula/so. bay.. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Tiburon/174-Avenida-Miraflores-94920/home/599522 http://www.redfin.com/CA/Belvedere-Tiburon/75-Eastview-Ave-94920/home/816526

22. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

    39   9:28pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says rowemoore says But the 1% have LOTS of cash and want to live in SAFE areas for their kiddies with GREAT schools. We've already determined that no 1%er would ever set foot in most of the chicken-coops which the Bay Area has to offer. But, I bet that there is much less of the 1%ers left in the Bay Area, than most people around here are willing to acknowledge. It would be interesting to see a map of where exactly these 1%ers live. WTF? Ignore. Goodbye!

23. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    40   10:22pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says WTF? Ignore. Goodbye! Dunnross is right! and the truth hurts...

24. Ceffer Follow Befriend 6 threads 650 comments Pleasanton, CA

    41   11:58pm Thu 22 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I see occasional listings in Santa Cruz close to the beach going into foreclosure for the second time, once when an investor caught the falling knife around 2008 and bought the first foreclosure, and then again when the price dropped another 100-200k after that, foreclosure #2.

25. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    42   2:23am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas.wong1986 says Dunnross is right! and the truth hurts... Yes, indeed. Putting me on the ignore list is exactly like sticking one's head up one's own ars.

26. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,652 comments

    43   4:18am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CrazyMan says Uh, and now you're being delusional. The data is pretty clear that they are. Perhaps in CA, but not nationwide. Last month showed YOY price gains.

27. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    44   6:54am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Ceffer says I see occasional listings in Santa Cruz close to the beach going into foreclosure for the second time, once when an investor caught the falling knife around 2008 and bought the first foreclosure, and then again when the price dropped another 100-200k after that, foreclosure #2. I see the same pattern in my area. There were quite a few coming up on my radar. Basically,all of them foreclosed post 2008 and and are now listed below the original sold price. I am not sure what the deal is though,investment/rental going back to market or first or second time owner defaulting?

28. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

    45   8:43am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas.wong1986 says rowemoore says WTF? Ignore. Goodbye! Dunnross is right! and the truth hurts... You're right of course. No wealthy people live in the bay area. What was I thinking to suggest there are super wealthy communities in the bay area? By national standards cities like Woodside, Palo Alto, Hillsborough, Piedmont and Kentfield are lower middle class at best.

29. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 103 threads 3,768 comments

    46   10:43am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   JohnJohn24 says $950,000 to $499,000? The seller isn't too subtle. This is definitely a California thing. In other states you will see small adjustments of $1,000 or so until the price finds a critical market. Going from nearly one million dollars to half a million dollars is just hoping you hit the real estate lottery. I've seen a lot of that here certainly. Someone speculates heavily into land and than lives there in a trailer for years hoping to hit a jack pot. I've never heard any success stories, and usually end up seeing same people living in trailers for years and years so I don't think they are successful.

30. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    47   11:43am Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It isn't like Pasadena is like Beverly Hills or Pacific Palisades.

31. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

    48   1:12pm Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says It isn't like Pasadena is like Beverly Hills or Pacific Palisades. Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com Or San Marino which is right next door to Pasadena. Good luck waiting for prices to drop 40% in San Marino...

32. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    49   1:29pm Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says What was I thinking to suggest there are super wealthy communities in the bay area? Yes.. its called Marin.. if your tired of driving your car.. jump into your yacht thats parked in your back yard. Take a spin across the bay if you want.

33. bgamall4 Follow Befriend (14) 761 threads 2,592 comments 63 male Las Vegas, NV bgamall4's website Premium

    50   5:39pm Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says Or San Marino which is right next door to Pasadena. Good luck waiting for prices to drop 40% in San Marino... Is that where Pinky and Blue Boy are? Big art museum there. Nice mansions too.

34. lurking Follow Befriend 6 threads 130 comments

    51   5:48pm Fri 23 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bgamall4 says Is that where Pinky and Blue Boy are? Big art museum there. Nice mansions too. Yes, the Huntington Museum and Gardens are in San Marino and border Pasadena. www.huntington.org

35. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,836 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    52   8:46pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hey you predicted a 40% haircut in 3 years? well, now you've got only 27 months, and prices are higher than they were then!!!! and yet, you debate me on and on!!!

36. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    53   9:03pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says now you've got only 27 months 27 months is plenty of time for you to lose your shirt. And, lose it, you most certainly will. And your boxer shorts, as well.

37. rufita11 Follow Befriend (3) 10 threads 166 comments San Ramon, CA

    54   9:11pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   David9 says AlexG says Patience, patience friends - this WILL happen I so hope you are right. The new available properties in my LA area today are all 'flips', some investor somehow got a good deal, went to Home Depot, and is now asking 50K more. It is sickening to me. Where I am looking in Santa Cruz and the East Bay, Home Depot flippers are looking for $200K more than they paid. Those properties are just sitting on the market though. A little bit of hope that things will cool down.

38. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    55   9:54pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   rufita11 says for $200K more than they paid. Yes, that too, must have been the Redfin email of the day as most investors are adding on more than that when attempting to sell their investment properties. Repeating myself, I feel this is discrimination against anyone who does not have boat loads of cash. And this is not exclusive to 'Home Depot Flippers'. At auction.com, many properties are 'cash only'. But, way of the world I suppose, doesn't mean I'm going to be a fool.

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,836 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    56   10:08pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says 27 months is plenty of time for you to lose your shirt. And, lose it, you most certainly will. And your boxer shorts, as well. yawn...

40. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    57   11:03pm Sun 16 Dec 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas says yawn... Please don't post a pic of yourself without your boxer shorts, 2 years from now. With a cheap $2 soda, or without.

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