WatchThis one is particularly lame considering how hard Republicans are pushing this misinformation. Here's the argument:
Newscorp and Clear Channel: Obama is responsible for oil going up because he refused to open up new drilling and is ordering the EPA to squash production.
Reality: I'll just let the graphs do all the talking.
Looks like Bush is the one responsible for the oil crisis:
Drill baby drill
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/energy-oil-rigs-idUKN1E79D11420111014
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Thomas: Oil trading occurs on domestic exchanges with only domestic partners.
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: blah blah blah tech industry
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: blah blah blah B2B
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: you're getting paranoid.
This is why you can't have a discussion with a right winger. He's living in an alternate reality where English isn't even a common language.
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I already answered your question with evidence provided.
If you cant understand B2B supply chain and e-commerce there is very little I can do for you...they have been around for a very very long time.
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iwog says
Way Way over you head on this one.... are you asking me to hack into their exchange.. sorry. I have no idea how to do that..
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thomas.wong1986 says
I characterized the conversation correctly. If you think this "debate" puts you in a favorable light, you're beyond delusional.
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here is some reading material.. you might learn something...
There is no physical exchange to speak off.. its all digital now days.. this is way beyond the understanding of a landlord.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business-to-business
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Business_XML
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_Electronic_Market
A private electronic market (PEM) uses the Internet to connect a limited number or pre-qualified buyers or sellers in one market. PEMs are a hybrid between perfectly open markets (e.g. exchanges where there is no pre-existing relationship between buyer and seller - similar to eBay) and closed contract negotiations (such as a sealed bid tender, where there is no visibility between competitors and hence no response to competition). The core idea of PEMs is to create competition among buyers/sellers while allowing buyers/sellers to adjust all those aspects of the deal that are typically only dealt with in a negotiation. This creates a problem of "comparing apples and oranges": bids may be quite different in many dimensions and therefore cannot easily be compared. Apart from the dimension of price these could include pre-negotiated discounts (e.g. for loyalty), specific qualities, combinations of goods and services with conditional pricing, freight differentials, contract fulfillment timing, payment terms, or deliberate constraints such as market share limits.
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thomas.wong1986 says
Gosh yes. A new fangled digital exchange is far beyond my comprehension.
Did you present a single example of a domestic-only space-aged digital oil exchange yet?
No?
Figures. Here's the updated conversation. Everything is 100% accurate:
Thomas: Oil trading occurs on domestic exchanges with only domestic partners.
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: blah blah blah tech industry
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: blah blah blah B2B
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: you're getting paranoid.
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: Way Way over you head
Iwog: show me one.
Thomas: Blah blah blah private electronic market (PEM)
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iwog says
LOL! who is full of shit now ?
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thomas.wong1986 says
Show me one.
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thomas.wong1986 says
I remember in 1999 when B2B was going to be REALLY big. In fact weren't much of the lies at Enron based on B2B potential over the internet ?
Then here we are in a future year that start with 20 (2012 in fact), maybe still in the great recession, and we don't even have flying cars. I must say
our phones are pretty damn cool though !
But I digress.
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iwog says
LOL! hack into any oil company's servers ? is that what your asking ? To ask such a question is again showing limited undstanding of all this.
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marcus says
Computer companies went bust, but that didnt stop PC revolution or you using one today.
Internet companies (ISP) and Netscape went bust, but that didnt stop people using the internet.
B2B went into a bubble, but that didnt stop the technology from moving forward creating business exchanges..
You think that old ladies in the purchasing department are still making orders for goods/services on paper these days ?
Business moves forward....
If all you see is Ipods, Facebook, Ebay, Amazon, then you are really missing the bigger picture of the tech revolution.
I cant help you there...
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thomas.wong1986 says
It is true that I haven't kept up with B2B exchanges, but fairly certain that it didn't end up being nearly as big as the bubble implied it would be.
I was making an observation.
thomas.wong1986 says
Why project other bs on to what I said.
Oh yeah, I know why.
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marcus says
Could you help me identify who the biggest online B2B exchanges are ?
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It seems that both the "left" and "right" can fall prey to the false notion that oil is priced domestically.
1) the "left" sometimes accuses domestic producers of price manipulation, when domestic producers control relatively little of the globe's oil reserves. Oil is priced on the global market.
2) the "right" seems to think if we could "drill baby drill" here at home, we'd see a dramatic reduction in what we'd pay for gasoline. The fact is we don't have that much oil compared to places like Saudi Arabia and Canada.
Proven Oil Reserves, from the CIA factbook:
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Tom Wong,
How much oil does the US really have?
1) 1442 billion barrels, a 200 year supply (according to the Washington Times and an Oil Industry Propaganda Mill *cough*...I mean, Think Tank)
2) 134 billion barrels, about an order of magnitude less (also a 200 year supply...interesting), according to the following post:
thomas.wong1986 says
3) 20 billion barrels, according to Mr. Obama and quite close to the 2009 CIA world factbook.
Don't get me wrong: I'm all for more drilling stateside. We need the tax revenue and employment opportunities. But I wouldn't expect the return of permanent $1.50 gasoline any time soon.
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marcus says
"online" would imply a website.. but not everything is just a website.
You order music/books/etc from Apple, Barnes and Noble, Amazon.. so where (???) and how do they (Apple, B&N and Amazon) order their inventory from music industry, book publishers, and other vendors. They are all private exchanges on their servers.
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wthrfrk80 says
it "is" priced based on...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_petroleum
The price of a barrel of oil is highly dependent on both its grade, determined by factors such as its specific gravity or API and its sulphur content, and its location. Other important benchmarks include Dubai, Tapis, and the OPEC basket. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses the imported refiner acquisition cost, the weighted average cost of all oil imported into the US, as its "world oil price".
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wthrfrk80 says
here is the prior post..
Proven oil reserves in the United States are 21 billion barrels (3.3×109 m3), excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates the total volume of undiscovered, technically recoverable prospective resources in all areas of the United States, including the Federal Outer Continental Shelf, the 1002 area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, and the Bakken Formation, total 134 billion barrels (21.3×109 m3) of crude oil.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States
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wthrfrk80 says
How much the price ?
thats up to the domestic supply and demand equilibrium.
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Ok, I missed your link the the Dept of the Interior's estimate. My mistake.
But I wonder why there's such a huge difference between the CIA and the Dept. of the Interior? 21 billion vs. 134 billion is a big difference.
I don't believe for a minute the 1442 billion estimate. I think that's pure propaganda.
Regardless, I think it makes sense to open up more domestic drilling. We need the good-paying jobs and tax revenue. And it gives the Saudi's a little less revenue. And if you thought regular oil production was bad for the environment, just look at the impact Canadian tar-sand mining has. Yikes!
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It doesn't matter how much recoverable oil is in the United States or the world for that matter. The only thing that matters is how much fossil fuel can be extracted using less energy than you recover.
This physical property is well known in engineering circles but does not exist in the world of neoconservative propaganda. The term is energy returned on energy invested or EROEI for short. Anyone reading this should take the time to memorize this ratio because it's going to become extremely important in your lifetime.
Traditional oil fields are extremely efficient and generally have an EROEI in double digits. The problem with all these billions of barrels thomas keeps talking about is that they are locked in oil shale and cannot be recovered without expending nearly the same energy in extraction.
Don't believe me? Much has been made of Canadian oil sands and indeed we get much of our oil from Canada. However the hidden secret about the Canadian oil fields is that they require MASSIVE, and I mean MASSIVE inputs of natural gas in order to extract the oil. Estimates of the EROEI for Canadian oil range from 7:1 to 3:1, however it's very possible that after you apply a correction for the fuel costs necessary to deliver this energy to your car, we're talking about an EROEI of almost 1:1. Canadian oil sands are decimating Canadian natural gas wells. Should Canada ever face a depletion problem in natural gas, the oil sands will shut down. Period. This isn't an economic issue, this is a thermodynamics issue. You cannot budget away physics.
Now regarding thomas' much hyped reserve estimates. It is impossible to recover 100% of America's oil. It might even be impossible to recover 50% of America's oil. The deepest ocean wells MIGHT be capable of an EROEI of 3:1, and as these wells are depleted, that number approaches 1. At 1 an oil well is shut down. It doesn't matter if there's 1 barrel left or a billion barrels left. It makes no sense to get it.
Unfortunately American energy policy is in a death spiral, and capitalism is to blame.
Cars burn oil but unfortunately most don't burn natural gas. We have abundant cheap natural gas. So given a free market, what happens if the EROEI of an oil well is 1:1, and $1 of natural gas is burned to extract $10 worth of oil?
Isn't it obvious? An oil corporation will destroy cheap energy to extract expensive energy, they will pocket the profits, and they will sell this country into hell without a peep from the Republican party. They will destroy enough natural gas to drive your car 1000 miles so they can sell you oil to run your car 1000 miles.
Democrats don't really get this either, but Democrats are capable of crossing the mythical free market line in the sand. Republicans are not. This country has no future with Republicans at the helm. None.
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-10-28/two-more-ethical-challenges-canadas-oil-sands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested
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Civilization ends when all new energy sources on this graph approach 1, and all the old energy sources are depleted. This is not an exaggeration.
Notice where tar sands and shale oil fall on this graph, and those ARE generous estimates.
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iwog says
Well fucking thank you for that wonderful insight, Mr. Che Guevara. What other insigths of Marxism would you like to add.
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iwog says
iwog says
Terrifying isn't it?
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thomas.wong1986 says
Give me a break.
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iwog says
Your point is well taken, but:
Can't at least some of the blame be laid at the feet of auto/truck/engine manufacturers? And the "catch 22" of having enough natural gas filling stations?
I'd love to have a NGV. Honda sells a NG Civic. But there's no place to fill up! At least here in upstate NY where I live.
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iwog says
So you use fear to push your agenda ? yes its obvious!
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iwog says
Impressive, expert in B2B exchanges, expert landlord, politics and now OIL production....remarkable... how do you do it ? LOL!
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iwog says
The Oil Shales, are seperate from the 134 Billion ... which come to 2+ Trillion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_the_United_States#Unconventional_prospective_resources
Oil shale
Main article: Oil shale reserves
"The United States has the largest known deposits of oil shale in the world, according to the Bureau of Land Management and holds an estimated 2.175 trillion barrels (345.8 km3) of potentially recoverable oil.[15] ."
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Right. But are can those reserves be extracted with an EROEI of greater than 1.0? If not, fuggetabouddit.
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wthrfrk80 says
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics
In 2005, Royal Dutch Shell announced that its in situ extraction technology in Colorado could become competitive at prices over $30 per barrel ($190/m3).[9] However, Shell reported in 2007 that the cost of creating an underground freeze wall to contain groundwater contamination had significantly escalated.[10]
At full-scale production, the production costs for one barrel of light crude oil of the Australia's Stuart plant were projected to be in the range of US$11.3 to $12.4 per barrel, including capital costs and operation costs over a projected 30-year lifetime. However, the project has been suspended due to environmental concerns.[6][11]
The project of a new Alberta Taciuk Processor, planned by VKG Oil, is estimated to achieve break-even financial feasibility operating at 30% capacity, assuming a crude oil price of US$21 per barrel or higher. At 50% utilization, the project is economic at a price of US$18 per barrel, while at full capacity, it could be economic at a price of US$13 per barrel.[12]
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Price is TOTALLY irrelevant to energy extraction. It simply does not matter. You will always be able to find someone to pay for energy at any price point.
If you can extract $10 of oil by using $1 of natural gas, it makes economic sense and a corporation will do it.
If you can run a car 10 miles on the same natural gas, and 9 miles on the same oil, you'll COST the country net energy while making a huge profit and impressing your shareholders. You can do this even as you waste huge volumes of energy.
Thomas, you don't even understand the question let alone know the answer.
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wthrfrk80 says
Almost certainly not.
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iwog says
The reality check: Oil Production on Federal Lands Has Declined Under Obama
"...However, according to CRS, domestic production on federal lands has declined under Obama, down by 275,000 barrels per day since its 2010 peak.
Obama also claimed that his administration was opening up increased areas off-shore, saying that “we are drilling all over the place” and that America was producing more oil than it could handle.
“We’re opening up more than 75 percent of our potential oil resources offshore,” Obama said. “So we are drilling all over the place--right now. That’s not the challenge. That's not the problem.”
While total domestic oil production is up by 230,000 barrels per day since Obama took office in 2009, none of that increase has come from federal lands, CRS reports. In fact, production is down sharply on federal lands since the BP oil spill in 2010, due entirely to the reduction in off-shore production...."
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/oil-production-federal-lands-has-declined-under-obama
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iwog says
True, but that's a purely hypothetical situation...and an extremely unlikely situation.
The price ratio would never get to 10:1 to begin with. Economically, that's just not possible. Nobody's going to buy $10 worth of gasoline if $1 worth of CNG can get them the same distance. They might have to do so in the short term until they trade in their gasoline car for an NGV. Yes, there is a "switching cost," but at 10:1 anyone who could afford to switch would do so ASAP.
This has been happening in Utah for some time, at a much lower ratio than 10:1 (more like 3:1):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/30/business/30gascars.html?pagewanted=all
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Wouldn't incremental improvements in mpg pretty much ease this though?
If a car gets 25 mpg..is it really asking much to 1mpg more per year of production?
Mpg seems to have peaked around 1988..then suv's came out en masse.
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wthrfrk80 says
That's pretty much what's already happening in Canada where huge volumes of natural gas are being sacrificed to wash oil out of the oil sands.
Right now natural gas costs a small fraction of what oil costs per effective gallon of fuel. I have a natural gas truck. Gasoline costs me about $4.15 and the same fillup of natural gas delivered to my home costs about $1.25.
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nosf41 says
This is called depletion, and it perfectly illustrates how right wing propaganda can infect a conversation and make it toxic and stupid.
It takes about 4 years from discovery of oil to production of an oil field.
Since Obama has not closed a single producing oil field, and since there hasn't been time to start oil production on new drill sites, it is bloody ignorant to publish an article blaming Obama for production declines on federal lands.
The person you want to blame is Bush, the oil man, who presided over 8 years of declining oil production. To actually assign blame to Obama, you must demonstrate how Obama impeded progress towards new production.
Other than a very understandable and publicly supported delay in new permits after the BP disaster, Obama hasn't done this and has even added additional territory that wasn't part of the Bush plan. (see above link)
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The price ratio would never get to 10:1 to begin with. Economically, that's just not possible.
I agree with Mr. Fork. The pricing signals are already there; keep your eye on the long haul truckers.
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I have a natural gas truck.
Way to go ducky. I'm picturing you in the HOV lane driving to take care of one of your rentals. Still, I admit I'm disappointed you didn't get a Crown Vic Duckmobile.
PS - Did you purchase at an auction, or from a dealer?
PPS - TPB are you listening. To the Bassmobile.