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Job gains present economic 'puzzle'


By StoutFiles   Follow   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 12:58am PDT   1,985 views   20 comments
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http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/26/news/economy/bernanke-federal-reserve/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

"Bernanke called those figures a 'puzzle.' For the unemployment rate to fall that significantly, the economy should have been growing much more quickly. "

Hey Bernanke! People are taking jobs at a much lower pay because their unemployment finally ran out! People aren't spending as much money as before fearing another recession! How much does this guy make to be so easily puzzled?

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rootvg   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:16am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

Fearing another recession? We HAVE to have one.

You can't get to a growth economy from where we are right now.

bubblesitter   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:19am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 2

StoutFiles says

Hey Bernanke! People are taking jobs at a much lower pay because their unemployment finally ran out! People aren't spending as much money as before fearing another recession! How much does this guy make to be so easily puzzled?

Isn't it amazing that this guy is in charge at Fed? In old days of monarchy a King used to disguise and merge among common people to find out what is happening at the lower level.

rootvg   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 3

bubblesitter says

StoutFiles says

Hey Bernanke! People are taking jobs at a much lower pay because their unemployment finally ran out! People aren't spending as much money as before fearing another recession! How much does this guy make to be so easily puzzled?

Isn't it amazing that this guy is in charge at Fed? In old days of monarchy a King used to disguise and merge among common people to find out what is happening at the lower level.

He's not going to be there much longer.

Romney will replace him, odds on favorite right now is this guy:

http://www.hoover.org/fellows/10298

http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl

He also has a blog:

http://www.johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com

If the signals I'm seeing are correct, we ARE going back to the right.

gary275   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:33am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 4

"By 1933, the height of the Depression, unemployment had risen from 3% to 25% of the nation’s workforce. Wages for those who still had jobs fell 42%. GDP was cut in half, from $103 to $55 billion. This was partly because of deflation, where prices fell 10% per year. Panicked government leaders passed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs to protect domestic industries and jobs. As a result, world trade plummeted 65% as measured in dollars and 25% in total number of units."

FortWayne   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

Maybe they are lying about real unemployment rates, or maybe they simply don't understand how economy works. Neither option is good

gary275   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:47am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

It was German loans in 1929 and in 2009 its chinese loans. Things seldom change.

My question is what do you do to prepare yourself ?

Bigsby   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 3:08am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

rootvg says

He's not going to be there much longer.

Romney will replace him, odds on favorite right now is this guy:

http://www.hoover.org/fellows/10298

http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl

He also has a blog:

http://www.johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com

If the signals I'm seeing are correct, we ARE going back to the right.

You never left it.

Anyway, I take your Romney prediction as a sign that Obama is a dead cert for reelection.

zzyzzx   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 3:50am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

StoutFiles says

Hey Bernanke! People are taking jobs at a much lower pay because their unemployment finally ran out! People aren't spending as much money as before fearing another recession! How much does this guy make to be so easily puzzled?

Berneke is just as stupid as portrayed here:

uomo_senza_nome   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 4:58am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

StoutFiles says

"Bernanke called those figures a 'puzzle.' For the unemployment rate to fall that significantly, the economy should have been growing much more quickly. "

unemployment rate is a statistical illusion, Smoke and mirrors.

Here's the real deal. Civilian employment to population ratio.

We're staring at a decade long depression: secular deleveraging.

zzyzzx says

Berneke is just as stupid as portrayed here:

Funny pictures aside, I don't think he's outright stupid. He has stated that gold is a hedge against really really bad outcomes (tail risks as economists like to call it), which is completely true.

He has also stated that Congress has to get its fiscal policies in order to get the economy to a more sustainable state. Actually I'd suspect he's strongly worried about the idiocy on the political spectrum.

freak80   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 11:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

gary275 says

My question is what do you do to prepare yourself ?

You get advice from our good friend Apocalypsefuck! Or was he kicked off the forum?

thomas.wong1986   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 1:28pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

StoutFiles says

Hey Bernanke! People are taking jobs at a much lower pay because their unemployment finally ran out! People aren't spending as much money as before fearing another recession! How much does this guy make to be so easily puzzled?

he worked in academia... never in the real world.

He never saw a former software sales executive or a cost accounting manager who were working for former top F500 company suddenly working at Macys mens department.

Dan8267   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 2:01pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

StoutFiles says

How much does this guy make to be so easily puzzled?

He's a Keynesian.

tatupu70   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 10:16pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

uomo_senza_nome says

Here's the real deal. Civilian employment to population ratio.

That's another interesting piece of data, but it has it's own flaws. It's heavily dependent on demographics and as the boomers begin retiring, that ratio will naturally decline.

tatupu70   Mon, 26 Mar 2012, 10:21pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

uomo_senza_nome says

Funny pictures aside, I don't think he's outright stupid. He has stated that gold is a hedge against really really bad outcomes (tail risks as economists like to call it), which is completely true.

Of course he's not stupid. Despite what all the self proclaimed geniuses on random Internet message boards might say.

Bigsby   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 12:14am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

tatupu70 says

uomo_senza_nome says

Funny pictures aside, I don't think he's outright stupid. He has stated that gold is a hedge against really really bad outcomes (tail risks as economists like to call it), which is completely true.

Of course he's not stupid. Despite what all the self proclaimed geniuses on random Internet message boards might say.

He's obviously extremely smart, but smart people don't necessarily make the right decisions.

tatupu70   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 1:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

Bigsby says

He's obviously extremely smart, but smart people don't necessarily make the right decisions.

Agreed. My only caveat is that we don't have the same information as he does. What looks obvious at face value may not be so simple once you get the full picture.

StoutFiles   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 3:25am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

tatupu70 says

Bigsby says

He's obviously extremely smart, but smart people don't necessarily make the right decisions.

Agreed. My only caveat is that we don't have the same information as he does. What looks obvious at face value may not be so simple once you get the full picture.

The other theory is that he knows everything and plays dumb to keep the market stabilized. Fake confusion is better than acknowledging we're screwed and that we likely need another recession to fix the problem.

uomo_senza_nome   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 4:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

tatupu70 says

it has it's own flaws. It's heavily dependent on demographics and as the boomers begin retiring, that ratio will naturally decline.

At least it's not fudged like the unemployment rate. Dropping people off the labor force and reducing a few percentage points on the unemployment rate can boost the stock market, but is not any meaningful recovery in the real economy. Labor market has been structurally destroyed with cheap credit.

uomo_senza_nome   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 4:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

tatupu70 says

My only caveat is that we don't have the same information as he does. What looks obvious at face value may not be so simple once you get the full picture.

But we do know that he's stuck to the Keynesian dogma as far as his monetary prescriptions are concerned.

Monetarily, we are total Keynesians. Fiscally, we are selective Keynesians, we want to be fiscally Keynesians when times are bad and we are never fiscally prudent when times are good. Keynes totally ignored the fact that politicians are morally corrupt and inept people.

realitycheck   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 5:35am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

Ben is pretending that he doesn't know what is going on. He need excuse for another QE

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