Patrick.net

bay area bidding wars... hell...

By permanent_marker   Follow   Tue, 27 Mar 2012, 3:26pm   8,949 views   86 comments
In Mountain View CA 94041   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.contracostatimes.com/business/ci_20235268/buyers-compete-short-supply-homes-bay-area

quotes:

"It's amazing what's not out there right now," he said. "There are only 32 homes in the whole city of Santa Clara. We're down 74 percent from February 2011."

"I think it's a little bit like Christmas," said Safran of the Contra Costa Association of Realtors. "People finally started buying again this Christmas when they hadn't bought for three years. I think they're just ready. It's time."

Some would-be sellers on the Peninsula seem to be holding out until next year, when Facebook's newly minted millionaires will begin spending their money, potentially driving up prices even more.

Sellers are "getting greedy" and pulling homes off the market, said Alex H. Wang of Rainmaker Sereno Group's Palo Alto office. "They get multiple offers on their house and say, 'I don't want to sell anymore. I'll wait until next year.' That upsets everybody."

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1. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,541 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

   47   1:58pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   1sfrenter says We have been actively looking in the city, but will realistically wait and rent another year or two if we don't find what we really want at a price we can afford. Same with my fiancee & I. We are hoping that 2012 is yet another year when people make poor decisions & end up driving the market lower once they are sufficiently underwater. The media seems to be pushing the "2012 year of recovery" angle, and a lot of people that want to believe that seem to be buying it. Hopefully by Q3 it will become obvious that it was a trap, and people will get desperate to unload once they see that there was no light shining at the end of that tunnel. At the very least, we are waiting until after the election. The candidates know that all sorts of people are underwater, and they are going to promise free houses & money to all of them to buy votes. Once the dust settles & they stop pretending to give a shit about broke house debtors, things should resume their downward slide.

2. 1sfrenter Follow Befriend (1) 11 threads 224 comments San Francisco, CA

   48   1:58pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bmwman91 says Why does it really matter if supply is limited in the "desirable" ( specific SV towns and parts of SF) areas anyway? If those places are your home, where you work and where your kids go to school and where you have roots and community, then yes, it does matter. Just not to you... If you are twenty-something and childless, maybe relocating is an option. But once you have kids and hit your forties and are established in your career....

3. 1sfrenter Follow Befriend (1) 11 threads 224 comments San Francisco, CA

   49   1:59pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bmwman91 says The media seems to be pushing the "2012 year of recovery" angle, and a lot of people that want to believe that seem to be buying it. They've been saying this for 5 years running.

4. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,541 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

   50   2:00pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   1sfrenter says bmwman91 says The media seems to be pushing the "2012 year of recovery" angle, and a lot of people that want to believe that seem to be buying it. They've been saying this for 5 years running. For sure. This year seems to have extra fervor though, probably due to the elections coming up.

5. PockyClipsNow Follow Befriend 19 threads 1,534 comments Los Angeles, CA

   51   2:02pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yes I cant wait for Obama to brag about all the bailouts he has done (saving loanowners and thier loans!) and to promise even more bailouts for the banks (loanowners loans again disguised as housing). Of course the R party is the same party (except for non financial doesnt matter cant enforce it anyway stupid social issues).

6. 2 cents Follow Befriend 17 comments

   52   2:22pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   1sfrenter says The real shadow inventory is all the people who borrowed and bought between 2004-2008 in the Bay Area who are now underwater by hundreds of thousands$$$. While that may be true, time will take care of some, some will give up, and others will stick it out until their house is paid off. I would not deem it as bulk inventory screaming to come back on the market. I don't know much about the city, only my little corner of the bay area. SF is another world to me, but here is to hoping your strategy pays off for you.

7. permanent_marker Follow Befriend (1) 71 threads 230 comments Mountain View, CA Premium

   53   3:19pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Here is something to consider: here is a search for zipcode : 94043 (mountain view, not high end) redfin : for sale : 12 realtytrac : regular sale (5) , foreclosure sale (7) [adds upto 12 reported by redfin], but here is a kicker : in-foreclosure : 72 ! see the screen shots 2 cents says I too don't buy the shadow inventory in the bay area.

8. permanent_marker Follow Befriend (1) 71 threads 230 comments Mountain View, CA Premium

   54   3:20pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   image from realtytrac

9. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

   55   3:30pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Wow, a 90% Foreclosure Micro Market. I suppose we should believe the article.

10. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 449 comments Boulder Creek, CA

    56   3:50pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   You should make the same comparison for Santa Clara, only since it was mentioned that the inventory is so low.

11. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,541 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    57   3:53pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I made a thread last week about the this. Based on the numbers from foreclosureradar & hotpads, the shadow inventory of houses in foreclosure (but not listed) is many times the size of the market of regular listed sales. The real question is whether or not those houses will become available to the public to purchase. My bets are on "no" since the RE game is a rigged one, and the only people that I think will get access to them are in large institutional investing firms.

12. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    58   3:59pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bmwman91 says and the only people that I think will get access to them are in large institutional investing firms. Bingo

13. permanent_marker Follow Befriend (1) 71 threads 230 comments Mountain View, CA Premium

    59   4:04pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Santa Clara stats : redfin : 86 for sale realtytrac : in foreclosures 244

14. permanent_marker Follow Befriend (1) 71 threads 230 comments Mountain View, CA Premium

    60   4:05pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   @patrick the image scaling / resizing isn't working correctly.

15. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    61   4:06pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   75% Foreclosure Micro Market. Let me get out my check book.

16. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    62   4:08pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   1sfrenter says Pacific Heights will NEVER be cheap, so don't hold your breath for an affordable mansion with views of Alcatraz. For many in decades past, Pacific Heights never mattered, so why should it matter today and decades into the future.

17. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    63   4:14pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says I think the claim is true. Movoto shows only 26 homes forsale today in Santa Clara. You have over 64 sold last month in SC City from +1200 total county. http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120315.aspx http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SF-Chronicle-Charts/ZIPSFC.aspx

18. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

    64   4:21pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   permanent_marker says the image scaling / resizing isn't working correctly. Thanks for telling me! OK, scaling is fixed now, but width is still limited to 500 pixels. Should I make the maximum image width 600 pixels instead? Might muck up the text formatting a bit.

19. permanent_marker Follow Befriend (1) 71 threads 230 comments Mountain View, CA Premium

    65   4:25pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Patrick says Should I make the maximum image width 600 pixels instead? Might muck up the text formatting a bit. @patrick thanks for fixing it! 500px width is fine; could you make the images clickable to show the actual image (I don't want to hijack the thread... )

20. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

    66   4:41pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   permanent_marker says could you make the images clickable to show the actual image OK, done! Well, it's done for new images from now on. All the old ones are already formatted and the formatting was not clickable. I'd have to change the database in a big weird way to find all the existing images and make them clickable. More suggestions please!

21. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    67   4:54pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   generallyfd says I can honestly say that if I were a Facebook millionaire, I wouldn't buy any bay area property. I'd "throw" my money away and rent a really, really nice house somewhere until I built my dream home elsewhere. $5M is sitting in your bank.. all cash. You get up one morning say 6 or 7 am ready for another day at work and it hits you. Everthing changes! You reach over and leave a message on your bosses, voice mail. "I quit". You lay there contemplating.. "what now?".. its a very strange feeling. Everything looks and feels diferent.

22. Netreality Follow Befriend 1 threads 16 comments Menlo Park, CA

    68   4:57pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The foreclosure maps are not helpful unless you remove the NOD (notice of default). 90+% of the NODs recover, or are sold at normal market value.

23. edvard2 Follow Befriend 34 threads 2,116 comments

    69   8:05pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   permanent_marker says Santa Clara stats : redfin : 86 for sale realtytrac : in foreclosures 244 ...Precious...

24. 2 cents Follow Befriend 17 comments

    70   8:27pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Netreality says The foreclosure maps are not helpful unless you remove the NOD (notice of default). 90+% of the NODs recover, or are sold at normal market value. I am not sure I would use the foreclosure maps as any kind of barometer as to the health of the market or direction of prices. I am actively looking for a good foreclosure in the area and I have not had any luck finding a bargain amongst them. If it has any kind of rental value there is good competition. The one I went after as a residence a couple of years ago ended up getting dozens of offers and I had no sense of where the other bids were. The top bidder didn't get a great bargain, but did get a nice house (for Santa Clara).

25. edvard2 Follow Befriend 34 threads 2,116 comments

    71   8:51pm Wed 28 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   2 cents says I am not sure I would use the foreclosure maps as any kind of barometer as to the health of the market or direction of prices I do. Cause the market is tanking.

26. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,036 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    72   10:56am Thu 29 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   edvard2 says 2 cents says I am not sure I would use the foreclosure maps as any kind of barometer as to the health of the market or direction of prices I do. Cause the market is tanking. But the market is going up? Foreclosures are being sold at higher than market value. It doesn't matter that they have been sitting idle for the last 2 years. People like the fact that they have to reinstall the copper piping and repair the walls and fixtures. It means they can shop at Home Depot. People's savings accounts are growing incredibly with the huge unemployment and welfare checks. They are looking for somewhere to pull all that cash. The cost of food and energy has dropped to nearly nothing so they find it hard to spend the check fast enough before the next check arrives. What a great time for our country!

27. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 449 comments Boulder Creek, CA

    73   11:18am Thu 29 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Yes, a high NOD rate is indicative of a healthy RE market. Clearly, there isn't enough money here to support the market or these NODs wouldn't happen in the 1st place. This fact should not be ignored. Also, Netreality, please show us a citation WRT 90% of NODs recover or are sold at market. I'd hazard a guess that 90% are short sold under market and maybe 10% of the owners recover or get mods.

28. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

    74   12:26pm Thu 29 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think the real issue here isn't the shadow inventory of foreclosures, because the banks and uncle sam control that market. It's the number of would-be short sales where the owners are holding out hope for a principal reduction. Once that ship sails, I think we'll start to see more short sales hit the market. But I doubt we'll see principal reduction dreams crushed during an election year. 2013 will be the earliest inventory begins to rise again.

29. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,036 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    75   2:27pm Thu 29 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   gregpfielding says But I doubt we'll see principal reduction dreams crushed during an election year. 2013 will be the earliest inventory begins to rise again. Good point. I never though of the implications of the election year. I guess we can label 2012 as the "wait-n-see" year.

30. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    76   2:46pm Thu 29 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   This is so different, yes, in Southern California, than the last housing downturn around 1993. 1.) No property auctions or very few at high reserve price 2.) Low inventory, debateable quality and features of available listings 3.) Extended time length of market stagnation 4.) Expected market behaviour different than real market behaviour considering most of the properties available are bank owned or short sales.

31. justme Follow Befriend (2) 33 threads 3,461 comments

    77   12:12pm Fri 30 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hmm, clicking the images to get larger versions does not work for me...

32. Patrick Follow Befriend (54) 5,191 threads 6,158 comments 46 male Menlo Park, CA

    78   12:55pm Fri 30 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It will only work for new images. That is, images posted after Wed, 28 Mar 2012 at 4:41 pm.

33. nspiratn Follow Befriend 2 threads 11 comments

    79   9:53pm Fri 30 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   My husband and I currently rent a 2bdrm 2 ba apartment for $2200! After following the market for a year or so, we had finally (after much hesitation) decided to buy a house - Renting a 3bdrm 2ba house in santa clara/sunnyvale/milpitas area is currently about $2600. And buying a similar house with 20% down payment is $2800 - it made sense - why shouldn't one buy? And now this article comes along and we're back to square one and confused again! Thanks Patrick.net! :(

34. bg Follow Befriend (13) 42 threads 313 comments Pacifica, CA Premium

    80   10:44pm Fri 30 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I believe that housing is going to go further down, especially in bay area. Does this mean that the world is going to go to hell in a hand basket if I am right? Is the sky really falling?

35. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    81   9:50am Sat 31 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   bg says Does this mean that the world is going to go to hell in a hand basket if I am right? LOL! when you look at the long history of home prices like that of the SFBA, the answer is NO! its going back to normal. And yes, its Hell for those who were making a rich Commissions on the sale of Bubbles... They will see or have seen a 75% drop in their commission earnings. So it depends who is asking... Back to normal lower prices is good for everyone !

36. 2 cents Follow Befriend 17 comments

    82   11:01am Sat 31 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   nspiratn says Renting a 3bdrm 2ba house in santa clara/sunnyvale/milpitas area is currently about $2600. And buying a similar house with 20% down payment is $2800 - it made sense - why shouldn't one buy? And now this article comes along and we're back to square one and confused again! Thanks Patrick.net! :( I think a lot of people who read these articles get sucked into competing and overbidding. If you hang in and make reasonable offers that work for you, you will eventualy stumble on the the right situation. But it pays to be hanging around when the high offer drops or the person wants to sell quick and you are the one left sitting at the table. I was outbid many times for properties, but have never regretted not paying more than I thought was reasonable (by Bay Area standards).

37. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,541 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    83   11:45am Sat 31 Mar 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I agree that exercising patience and being persistent can pay off. My cousin is closing on house in San Jose. They got out-bid on 4 or 5 prior to this, but they kept tabs on those 4 or 5 and ended up getting one when a higher bidder fell through. To the best of my knowledge, they paid exactly asking price since the seller got antsy. It is a lot of work, but if you are adamant about buying, and you aren't anywhere near the peninsula, persistence probably pays off.

38. Netreality Follow Befriend 1 threads 16 comments Menlo Park, CA

    84   10:53pm Sun 1 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (2)   http://www.foreclosureradar.com/california/santa-clara-county-foreclosures Someone asked me to state my source. It's in the news periodically that almost nothing actually makes it to a sale on the courthouse steps. In the above example, about 600-800 new Notice of Defaults are filed monthly in Santa Clara, but only 150 or so are actually repossessed by the bank. The rest are recovered, cancelled, perhaps short sale, but not REO. Ignore NOD listings. Not meaningful, at least in the short term. Only 10-20% become actual foreclosures in 1-2 years.

39. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 449 comments Boulder Creek, CA

    85   11:41pm Sun 1 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Short sale, reo, it's a wash to me. More houses need to come on the market. The fact that they're being issued means people aren't making their payments. I can't see how that's meaningless. The link you posted shows 37% are foreclosed on. That's quite a bit.

40. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,523 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    86   11:58pm Sun 1 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Considering that the cure rate for homes that receive a NOD is about 5% for the entire nation, I'd say NOD shouldn't be ignored.

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