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Grim Housing Data Shows We Have Not Hit Bottom


By mili   Follow   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 4:36am PDT   4,381 views   30 comments
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Grim Housing Data Shows We Have Not Hit Bottom
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/03/29/Grim-Housing-Data-Shows-We-Have-Not-Hit-Bottom.aspx

A new string of grim housing data confirms what economists and housing analysts have long predicted: the housing market has yet to hit bottom, and once it does, it will be a long slog back to health and stability.

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hrhjuliet   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 5:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

That's what I thought.

FortWayne   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 5:30am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 2

We won't hit it for a while. Once interest rates go up markets will adjust.

PockyClipsNow   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 5:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 3

It looks like interest rates will go up when global warming raises sea level 500 feet.....NEVER

edvard2   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 6:12am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

I wouldn't say it grim data. To me its all good.

bubblesitter   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 6:14am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

PockyClipsNow says

It looks like interest rates will go up when global warming raises sea level 500 feet.....NEVER

Oh it coming,although I hope that is not true.

http://travel.yahoo.com/ideas/greater-risk-of-weather-disaster-is--almost-everywhere---report-says.html

StoutFiles   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 8:15am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

Interest rates went to 2% in Japan. What's stopping that from happening here?

David9   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 8:51am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 7

I have a good feeling someday I'll get a nice property(s)

For now, just more of me whining, bitching, complaining, swearing.

bubblesitter   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 9:10am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

StoutFiles says

Interest rates went to 2% in Japan. What's stopping that from happening here?

I see that happening along with further home price declines. For next few years you may never have to regret that you should have bought earlier!

xenogear3   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 9:54am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

Japanese population is decreasing. US is increasing.

However, job outsourcing/low wage is a major problem.

PockyClipsNow   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 10:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

My friend got a 2.7% loan a few months ago.
We are already at 2% mortgages plus a little fluff. Rates must grind lower to enable REFI of mortgage and rollover of corporate debt.
Higher rates will 'blow up the banks' so you will never see them. ever again.

BoomAndBustCycle   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 10:52am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

bubblesitter says

I see that happening along with further home price declines. For next few years you may never have to regret that you should have bought earlier!

US home prices compared to incomes are still pretty cheap compared to any other developed.. or non-developed nation.

It's all relative. I remember seeing this chart making the rounds last year:

http://www.creditsesame.com/blog/americas-top-cities-cheapest-real-estate-in-the-world/

It makes all US real estate look very cheap per square foot compared to the rest of the world. And salaries in relation to home prices in the US are still better than the rest of the world. I'm sure there's exaggerations in this chart, but it's still eye-opening.

I'm curious what median incomes vs. home prices in Japan are compared to the U.S.

You can't compare Japan's housing bubble to the US housing bubble without comparing Japan's median incomes to their home prices.

xenogear3   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 11:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

The rest of the world don't pay that much tax and HOA fee.
They also don't move every 6 years.

http://www.creditsesame.com/blog/americas-top-cities-cheapest-real-estate-in-the-world/

I will take this with a grain of salt.

BoomAndBustCycle   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 11:59am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

xenogear3 says

The rest of the world don't pay that much tax and HOA fee.
They also don't move every 6 years.

Any evidence to back that up? I'm curious who has lived and worked in other countries recently and compare their housing costs and salaries as compared to living in big cities in the US.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 3:16pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 14

BoomAndBustCycle says

xenogear3 says

The rest of the world don't pay that much tax and HOA fee.

They also don't move every 6 years.

Any evidence to back that up? I'm curious who has lived and worked in other countries recently and compare their housing costs and salaries as compared to living in big cities in the US.

14 year olds cannot buy homes in any other developed country in the world. This place has both extremes and it always will. Cheap good quality homes and overpriced pieces of crap. Most European countries I have visited have pretty expensive good quality homes. That is rare here. We send the wood with the most knots to the most desirable areas. Then charge 10x the price they are really worth. Funny thing is, lines of fools fight for accesses to the crappy lumber cottages.

zhanka   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 3:45pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

European countries don't mesure in square feet their properties, most likely the numbers are in $/square meter. I can believe $3,287 per square meter in Paris, but hardly in $3,287 per square feet.
100 (square meters) = 1 076.39104 square feet
1000 (square feet) = 92.90304 square meters

zhanka   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 4:00pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

Simple math: average apartment in Paris 1000 (square feet) can't cost $3,287,000, however around $305,691 is more believable.

zhanka   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 4:06pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

St. Petersburg, Russia $3,135 per sq. m., Moscow 2-3 times more

clambo   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 4:25pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

Dive, dive, dive! Klaxon horns blasting and dog all the hatches, this is going down baby.
High unemployment, check. Foreclosures in ever increasing numbers, check. Lots of underwater houses ready to be foreclosed, check.
The Philidelphia Federal reserve guy was on Nightly Business Report, talking about when they will raise interest rates.
Houses will cost more per month so this will put more downward pressure on house prices.
Down, down, down.

StoutFiles   Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 10:13pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

clambo says

The Philidelphia Federal reserve guy was on Nightly Business Report, talking about when they will raise interest rates.

Part of me thinks this is a lie. What better way to get people to buy then to tell them the interest rate will soon skyrocket?

RentingForHalfTheCost   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 12:48am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

StoutFiles says

clambo says

The Philidelphia Federal reserve guy was on Nightly Business Report, talking about when they will raise interest rates.

Part of me thinks this is a lie. What better way to get people to buy then to tell them the interest rate will soon skyrocket?

Good, the more people that buy now, the more people that will be defaulting when I am ready to buy. ;) Buy your heart out America!

bubblesitter   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 1:30am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 21

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Good, the more people that buy now, the more people that will be defaulting when I am ready to buy. ;) Buy your heart out America!

Sure,it is coming. I am just waiting for the wave of defaults that will hit 2014 and later,especially from the people bought post 2008 and let the rate be 1% at the time. :)

GUAB   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 1:57am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 22

This thread is so full of stupid it's not even funny.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 4:31am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 23

GUAB says

This thread is so full of stupid it's not even funny.

Well, now that you say that I would have to agree. ;)

Auntiegrav   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 5:15am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

RentingForHalfTheCost says

GUAB says

This thread is so full of stupid it's not even funny.

Well, now that you say that I would have to agree. ;)

The think that comes to mind is that the talk of comparisons between Europe and the U.S. and the rest of the world doesn't ever segue into "Where do people need to be?" or "What are people doing in those places that they have to buy a house, and can they do the same thing somewhere else?" It seems that most of the economy now is just people doing things to entertain each other (cars, airplanes, wars) and the rest is selling paper to prove they need to do it (marketing, banking, government), but nobody really stops and says "Where are we going and why am I in this handbasket?"
Underwater houses underwater (if they aren't blown into the water by tornadoes first).

BoomAndBustCycle   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 5:27am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Good, the more people that buy now, the more people that will be defaulting when I am ready to buy. ;) Buy your heart out America!

I don't think America will be a good place to buy and invest in a home if the doom and gloom you anticipate comes to fruition.

David9   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 6:18am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

BoomAndBustCycle says

I don't think America will be a good place to buy and invest in a home if the doom and gloom you anticipate comes to fruition.

"Some of us are real sorry about that" (From 'Under the Tuscan Sun')

Sorry, couldn't resist.

bubblesitter   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 6:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 27

BoomAndBustCycle says

I don't think America will be a good place to buy and invest in a home if the doom and gloom you anticipate comes to fruition.

So where else would go? relocate to China? Brazil?

BoomAndBustCycle   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 11:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

bubblesitter says

So where else would go? relocate to China? Brazil?

I think housing is still 33x median incomes in many large cities in China... And as for Brazil...

http://www.latinbusinesschronicle.com/app/article.aspx?id=4829

They are definitely in a housing bubble there, probably where the US was in 2004-2005...

Between Austrailia, Brazil, China, Canada ect...

Where on earth isn't there a housing bubble?

If you MUST buy real estate.. I think buying in the US is definitely your safest bet.

But I was just commenting on the fact that if you think US real estate is going to fall another 20-40%... Then that's putting us in 3rd world country real estate arenas... Atleast when compared to median incomes.

thomas.wong1986   Fri, 30 Mar 2012, 1:53pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

BoomAndBustCycle says

Where on earth isn't there a housing bubble?

It apears that Germany had it between 1990 and 2000 and Japan from 1980-1990.. and deep declines afterwards.

They dont seem to be in any rush to inflate prices any time soon.

RentingForHalfTheCost   Sat, 31 Mar 2012, 5:33am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

BoomAndBustCycle says

Between Austrailia, Brazil, China, Canada ect...

Where on earth isn't there a housing bubble?

But the schools in these countries have the best scores. The 33x median income is justified if you kids can stay away from drugs and get a scholarship right. With that logic, why not 66x, 132x, etc. etc, Mommy mommy make it stop.

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