The last few month (with Facebook and other companies going public) saw an increase in bid wars in the Bay Area. In the last week I've seen it decline. I was told the "Spring Fling" would last until August, but now I'm guessing it was just "March Madness." Anyone else see this rapid rise and fall, or has all of it just been my imagination?
"Spring Fling" over?
By hrhjuliet Follow Thu, 29 Mar 2012, 12:03pm 3,428 views 31 comments
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San Francisco, CA
I thought the FB IPO wasn't until May?
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You can sell FB stock. Just not via NASDAQ.
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xenogear3 says
Now exactly can you sell "unregistered" (with SEC) shares and without BOD approval ? Would like to explain all this to their transfer agent ?
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hrhjuliet says
From my other post...
"Calvium Networks, FriendFinder, Pandora, and few others went IPO but no one mentions them. There are NO millionaires to speak from them. "
As i have said before, people and the media have exaggerated what occured during the late 90s... 1997-1999 as if it is common event even today.
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No, that's not what I mean. Many people moved here in the last month because they KNOW that their company is going public. My son had three new students in his gymnastics class start two weeks ago...just moved here this month, for Facebook and one family for another company that has ties with Pandora, but not Pandora. I couldn't help but notice all the new kids on the block, nor could I help but notice the temporary bid wars, which just seemed to come out of nowhere, and end just as quick. My question is: Do you think this is the end of the Spring Fever, or what?
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Oakland, CA
Well, maybe this this will balance it out.
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Madison, WI
It's like that everywhere, I had a realtor call me all excited the other day, it's just that time of year.
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Yahoo is using Google's search engine.
I don't see how it can last.
This is the problem with tech companies.
They last 10 years at most.
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San Jose, CA
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I don't think the spring fling is over. I think the housing market will be hot during this summer. However, whoever bought this spring & summer will be sorry by next year. This is like 2010 all over again.
One interesting thing that I see from the C-S graph is that, this looks almost identical to 1993. Another correlation that I noticed is that as housing gets hot, interest rate starts to move up shortly after. So when things cool down going into the fall & winter, don't be surprised if 30-yr fixed interest rate drops to 3.25%-3.375%. Well, maybe it would be time to refinance again. :)
If the market cools down by fall & winter, next year might be a better time to buy with lower interest rate & home prices. What if I'm wrong? Do you want to wait for the next housing cycle to buy your first home? So hedge your bet accordingly. :)
Disclaimer: I'm long real estate at this point.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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I also think that this summer will be hot for RE in the Bay Area. All of my coworkers, and many acquaintances I have met at parties, are talking about RE and how "now is the time." It sounds like 2010, except instead of cash subsidies driving things, it is "low interest rates, I have been waiting 2 WHOLE years, and everyone is buying again and I don't want to be priced out!"
I do not expect any improvements in affordability this year almost entirely because it is an election year. So many people are either underwater or have their entire net worth staked on an inflated paper value for their house that our fearless leader's reelection can't risk making houses more affordable for people that aren't currently house poor. There are more loan owner voters out there than not.
With the general election coming in 2014, I also suspect that our legislators will also be fighting a against affordability to keep the votes of the house poor masses. I could be entirely wrong (hopefully) since much of this is based on anecdotal evidence and some cynicism, sooooo I guess we will just have to wait and see.
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bmwman91 says
How long have they been in the Bay Area ? What other experience do they have with RE here or anywhere and are they anyway aware what prices were before the bubble started ( 1997 ) ?
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xenogear3 says
Google actual used Yahoo's search engine in the begining and lifted the code. When Google got busted, Google settled out of court... yes $$$ Billions paid to Yahoo. Frankly another mistake by Yang and company since Yahoo could of skinned Google to the bone.
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IIRC Yahoo is using search results from Bing. Ever since Yahoo realized they needed a mechanically indexed search engine and dumped their hand-maintained directory they've used search results from one company or another. Off the top of my head they've used Altavista, Inktomi, Google, and Bing.
I don't remember ever hearing that google stole anything from yahoo. Can you point to a source or two?
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Democrats are threatening to raise taxes again to pay for their lala land promises to the unions. That adds a lot of uncertainty to the public.
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thomas.wong1986 says
this is patently, factually wrong.
there was no yahoo law suit.
google never paid cash to yahoo.
google never stole any yahoo code.
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I'm assuming this is what Thomas is talking about. A bit more complicated than his post implies...
http://nytimes.com/2004/08/10/technology/10search.html
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FortWayne says
"Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they supported the governor's measure, which he hopes to place on the November ballot. It would hike the state sales tax by a quarter-cent per dollar for the next four years and create a graduated surcharge on incomes of more than $250,000 that would last seven years. A third of respondents opposed the measure."
Since you probably don't make over $250K a year... I think you can afford a quarter of a penny rise in sales tax. Not sure what's so scary..?
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E-man says
I think if the propsed big increase in FHA fees (up tp 2.05%) gets passed and implemented then that will have a big negative impact on prices. All of a sudden those low monthly rates won't be so low for people without 20% down payment. And those who have 20% for down payment won't have to fight the same kind of bidding wars anymore.
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Sebastopol, CA
There are 9 counties in the bay area and quite a few more markets than that. If you are only talking about, you know, the REAL bay area can you be a little more specific in defining it? From talking to some folks from Marin I understand that prices haven't fallen in the "Real" marin county...and the market is smokin' hot.
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Pleasanton, CA
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hrhjuliet says
I like to see the public documents verifying these fictitious bidding wars. Don't believe what a realtor tells you about what happened. They lie to sell and throw fear into potential buyers. Honest is not part of the job description. Actually, as a realtor if you are not dishonest then you are not trying.
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Pleasanton, CA
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thomas.wong1986 says
Where are you getting this stuff? Stop believing everything you hear and read. That is just wrong.
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Belmont, CA
xenogear3 says
IBM. Companies that provide real value and retool how they make money last a lot longer.
Google's main IP, Android and AdSense were bought. AdSense was Oingo.
The problem is there are no longer any real pure tech companies just well managed conglomerates and well managed technology aggregators. We dont have Howard Hughes type billionaire uber mensch who really invent new things and do new things, we have corporations and billionaires that buy tech. The other issue here is that a startup cant get big without being bought. There isnt enough money to go-global or viral. Android would be dead without Google. So would Oingo. We are now permanently in the shadows of mega corporations. If you want to hit pay dirt, you best be doing something that appeals to a behemoth like Dell, HP, Oracle, IBM, whatever, and sell them your junk. Then hopefully you have enough to escape. Otherwise be a wage slave until Yahoo or someone like them lays you off summarily.
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Belmont, CA
BoomAndBustCycle says
We can "afford" 10% sales tax and 10% state income, and AMT, and 25-35% federal tax. Uncle Sam is our partner. Of course we could afford more, Uncle Sam could take all of it and we could have bread lines and schools even worse than the worthless they are today.
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Belmont, CA
bmwman91 says
Now is the time to move. You are already priced out. Especially if you have kids. Given the current rents and housing prices in any area where the schools are simply terrible and not violent (and to be clear, all public schools are at least terrible, yes eve, API 900 schools are terrible - even PA/Gunn) are so far beyond what even people with decent above average dual income families pull in. You need to clear 300K on one income to even pretend to be able to live here with kids. You will be house poor.
This is the time where people like me realize that multi-generational living somewhere less expensive is the new reality, and home-schooling is seeming like something that is viable - a few years ago I would have said forget it, but these days what is being taught in schools is so bad and the violent bullying that goes on is so bad that you may need to home school them to protect them. Drugs are rampant, alcohol use common, and there are enough "1%" types who will be "successful" regardless of how dumb and reckless they are.
The bay area is now operating like it was part of Asia. Its also riddled with traffic, substandard schools, highly speculative, and the job market is paying only slightly higher (it used to be much higher) than comparable tech centers. Its not that hard to break 100K in Austin, and they have lots of houses in decent areas for under 300K. Sure, its flawed, and has its issues, but the Bay Area is a write off. Focus on simple living and family life and be thankful for every day. This get rich in the Bay Area dream is dead. Its over. Get out while you still can. A down payment here is a whole house in 90-95% of the rest of the country.
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Belmont, CA
bmwman91 says
Yeah, ok, so here is your choice loan owners: Crushing deflation or crushing inflation. You pick. You cant pay your bills, so pick a way to self destruct. Realize that in periods of runaway inflation that the last thing people services was rent/mortgages, food becomes the major expense during inflation. Also realize that they and will find a way to assess and tax and parcel tax landowners as they will need money. badly.
Its time to retreat into multigenerational family living. Strength in numbers. The days of every nuclear family is an Island here in the USA are over. Its dead Jim.
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Belmont, CA
drtor says
Most of the wars are coming because there are enough cash buyers buying up lower priced or flippable homes. They make up up to 35% of the market. I dont think many FHA loans are in the running, they take forever to close. What is going on is people on the fence are afraid because of the uncertainty (EU, dollar, commodities, economy, etc) and are jumping into something they think of as a real asset (with ridiculous carrying costs).
The current house prices in the SFBAY will not correct downward much unless there is a black swan event (massive earthquake, major economic turmoil, $10 gas, etc). There is just too many people with cash and 20% who want a seat in the fortress areas so they too can be house poor and sed their kids to a drug ridden API 950 score blue ribbon school that sucks.
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Wow. Mick throws down truth like a sword. That really summed it up, and oddly enough made me laugh.
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Mick Russom says
I doubt FOOD will ever become a major expense again in our society. Farming technology has advanced far too much. We actually have a surplus of food and end up throwing away more food than we need. America's great resource is still how much farmland we have compared to the rest of the world. That isn't changing any time soon.
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Denver, CO
BoomAndBustCycle says
I respectfully disagree. Our agricultural methods/technology are highly dependent on oil, both in terms of the machinery to work the land and petroleum derived inputs (pesticides, fertilizers). Also the transportation costs, which are clearly affected by oil prices, is another component of the retail cost to the consumer. Energy prices certainly affect food prices, and I think there are people at the margins (in the US) for whom food is already a major expense.
As far as the great resource we have in farmland, I agree, but it is disappearing. Because of the highly productive but damaging intensive agricultural practices we use, we have depleted a lot of our fertile soil:
"Since the beginning of agricultural production in the Great Plains of North America in the 1880s, about one-half of its topsoil has disappeared."
(From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_(soil) )
Wheat farming has been likened to "mining soil", as appx. 1 bushel of topsoil is lost in the production of 1 bushel of wheat. Frightening.
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Chandler, AZ
Mick Russom says
I can tell Mick lives in CA as he knows what he's talking about. California schools are so horrible that one of my coworkers had his Scotts Valley daughter repeat 2nd grade when coming into Arizona schools. And Arizona is not known for their schools! Seriously, how far behind can you be when you're doing great and only in second grade?!?
Traffic is god-awful. When you go out and life in general revolves around the traffic patterns. Whether you like it or not, immigrant asians are not good drivers and make the roads a defensive driving lesson every time you venture out of your driveway. The city I lived in was over 75% asian, and while there was not much violent crime it was a chore to get around our little town in a car. Home break-ins are very common as asians frequently don't use banks and hoard their cash in their house - so if you're a renter try hard to get your landlord to allow a dog.
Average salaries here in Arizona are not much lower but the cost of living drops 40% upon moving.
California's crazy experimental environmental laws eventually leech into all our lives and screw things up. Every tried to use one of those horrible, leaky gas cans you are forced to buy there due to the portable fuel container laws? And don't even get me started on CARB...
People in California are generally not nice - I'm a native, I know ;-)
California sucks. Let's just detonate it into the ocean now and get it over with.
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Lafayette, CA
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hrhjuliet says
Mostly your imagination. The market does get quieter when the weather turns cold, but there is less supply too. By ALL measurements, the real estate market IS NOT experiencing the drop in prices that usually happens during this time of year. This is a significant difference from 2009, 2010, and 2011. Prices in 2013 will be higher than in 2012, especially with QE3 in full swing.
I can't speak for the rest of the country, but this data is EXTREMELY bullish for Northern California real estate: