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Now we know which homes will absorb the Facebook demand for housing


By RentingForHalfTheCost   Follow   Wed, 4 Apr 2012, 12:16am PDT   16,456 views   78 comments
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At least before Facebook starts doing reverse splits to save from getting de-listed. Yup, I said it.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/04/technology/yahoo-jobs/index.htm?iid=Lead

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FunTime   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 4:49am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

So those homes could still be the really big homes. This one will be interesting to watch.

Also found this link on the same page interesting.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/retirement/1203/gallery.investing-advice-adult.moneymag/?iid=GM

PockyClipsNow   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 8:56am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

yet another 'give all your money to wallstreeters/stock market' and dont invest in anything else article.

Seriously if you dont own a smart phone and put that $ into stocks thats really sad.

David9   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 9:39am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 3

Sorry if this is not an exact thread match, but this article basically validates what has been dicussed on this blog for YEARS.

The housing market is rigged, especially in regard to high house prices.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46971242/ns/business-real_estate/

FunTime   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 10:26am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 4

Nomograph says

You people should just buy your cheap shitty East Bay houses and quit whining about prices on the peninsula. Face it, you just don't make enough money.

HAHA! I really do think this is pretty funny. Just the way you worded it.

Maybe it's true for some here. Based on statistics, I do make enough money. Based on how I want to live, I don't. I don't accept the lifestyle lived by people at my income level. I don't drive a BMW. I don't own a house.

I was hanging out with coworkers in a bar recently and one of my friends at work was showing off his NINE THOUSAND DOLLAR watch. I still can't believe he goes around wearing a $9k watch. Maybe he has family money, or something I don't know about, but I know I have a higher income. It doesn't matter, though, because no matter how much money I make, I won't wear a $9k watch.

I'm aware of how much money the average person(worldwide) makes and how far the average person(worldwide) walks for water each day. This awareness prohibits me from spending certain sums of money on certain items.

FunTime   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 10:31am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

PockyClipsNow says

yet another 'give all your money to wallstreeters/stock market' and dont invest in anything else article.

The advice about buying a house was more cautionary than it would have been from this source five years ago. i find that interesting, because I think the principle is always valid. I find it entertaining to see journalists who aren't able to make observations and get themselves caught up in fashions and social trends that have no connection to principles.

freak80   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 10:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

FunTime says

I'm aware of how much money the average person(worldwide) makes and how far the average person(worldwide) walks for water each day. This awareness prohibits me from spending certain sums of money on certain items.

And those people feel lucky that they have access to fresh water at all.
It's infuriating isn't it? I feel guilty just for having an "average" middle class income.

bighorse   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 10:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 7

Another thread to convince yourselves that it's okay that you cannot buy.

FunTime   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 11:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

bighorse says

Another thread to convince yourselves that it's okay that you cannot buy.

In my case, it's "another thread to convince yourselves that it's okay that you will not buy."

anon12366   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 11:58am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

it's all about quality of life. some people know the program and get the special bailout or reduced rate, the rest of us pay high prices.

rootvg   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 12:09pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 10

Nomograph says

You people should just buy your cheap shitty East Bay houses and quit whining about prices on the peninsula. Face it, you just don't make enough money.

The house we just bought in Danville is better built than the one my parents built in Ohio in 1975. We gutted it to the walls upstairs. I saw for myself.

My question is, why do you need to act like a child?

bighorse   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 12:17pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

rootvg says

The house we just bought in Danville is better built than the one my parents built in Ohio in 1975. We gutted it to the walls upstairs. I saw for myself.

I don't think he was referring to the quality of the house structure.

Soozy   Thu, 5 Apr 2012, 11:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

It's all about never allowing the market to clear. Welcome to capitalist system.

thomas.wong1986   Fri, 6 Apr 2012, 12:19pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 13

Nomograph says

You people should just buy your cheap shitty East Bay houses and quit whining about prices on the peninsula. Face it, you just don't make enough money.

Explain home prices in Bay Area from 1992 to 1997 ?

Why was it so much cheaper compared to income vs today ?

Netreality   Fri, 6 Apr 2012, 4:51pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

That was before all the IPO cash outs.

thomas.wong1986   Fri, 6 Apr 2012, 5:16pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

Netreality says

That was before all the IPO cash outs.

let Nomohead answer the question... he seems to be able to speak about East Bay and Peninsula.. and Northern California in general.

Netreality.. didnt we have IPOs before ... there were well over 300+ public companies that IPO'd by 1994.

We didnt see neither overvalued tech stock or housing bubble at the magnitude we recently had !

Mick Russom   Sat, 7 Apr 2012, 2:58pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike     Comment 16

Nomograph says

You people should just buy your cheap shitty East Bay houses and quit whining about prices on the peninsula. Face it, you just don't make enough money.

Most of the people on the peninsula are house poor morons or people who have been here for 20-25+ years. I personally know many house poor. Its insane, and the schools stink on top of it all.

Most of the smart people who have not won a "lottery" , RSUs or a startup pop are moving out. See you all later.

Between rent control, prop 13 and idiotic zoning and fools in 1950s moldy rickety earthquake-deathtrap termite laden tiny with knob and tube wiring who are living WAY worse than poor people in a double wide trailer do keeping the zoning the way it is, you can see how idiotic regulations and rules have caused the valley to turn into a unaffordable, bad schools, anti family anti middle class hole. The pay here is no longer enough to offset cost of living. not even close. Unless you have big RSUs or are company executive or senior sales, this dump is no longer paying nearly enough to live here. Its a sad, burned out husk thats way more like Wall Street than like the innovation valley it used to be long ago.

Im done. Its not worth it. The quality of life here is much, much lower than you think. I know because I visit people making less than half what I make in normal areas, they have a LOT more fun as a family than here.

B.A.C.A.H.   Sat, 7 Apr 2012, 3:25pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

thomas.wong1986 says

Why was it so much cheaper compared to income vs today ?

Because in those days there were not so many new monied wealthy folks pouring in from overseas places like there is today. Those days were before China and India became juggernauts.

Kevin   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 7:05am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

Facebook has fewer employees than Yahoo is about to lay off.

Even if every one of those employees gets millions (they won't), they're not all buying even one house.

The net effect on house prices will be approximately zero.

dunnross   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 8:16am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

B.A.C.A.H. says

Because in those days there were not so many new monied wealthy folks pouring in from overseas places like there is today. Those days were before China and India became juggernauts.

I thought that the BS, which was fed to the gullible people of the Bay Area in 2006, in order to justify high house prices was pretty ludicrous, but this one really takes the bate.

bubblesitter   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 8:40am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

B.A.C.A.H. says

Because in those days there were not so many new monied wealthy folks pouring in from overseas places like there is today. Those days were before China and India became juggernauts.

I guess,you are not familiar with the term "reverse brain drain". I'd leave up to you to research that and find out what numbers of immigrants(with or without $$ bills) are pouring in or leaving US. Immigration numbers are recorded by state department. So can you prove that H1-B are coming from China/India with money? LOL. I don't think so. E2 investor Visa? How many were awarded by state department to people from China/India,in last 10 years? How many family based immigrants came here from India/China with so many $$ bills. Yeah,yeah China/India decides US home prices. Thanks for cracking me up. LMAO.

anon595   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 8:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 21

Of the people that I know that bought $2 - 10m places in MP/PA/LA/Atherton/Woodside over the last decade, most had major stock payouts from Google, Apple, Facebook, even Yahoo, Sun, Network Appliance, a while ago, or worked for a VC firm. They didn't buy based on their salary.

Also, back in the 90's it wasn't so easy to see the API scores & demographics of all the local school districts. With more information, there is far more consolidation into the most "valuable" locations & schools. With ignorance comes bliss.

Even if only 10% of facebook employees decide to buy, that will affect the market since there are so few decent properties for sale right now.

Kevin   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 5:38pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 22

anon595 says

Even if only 10% of facebook employees decide to buy, that will affect the market since there are so few decent properties for sale right now.

You're talking about ~300 sales. That's about a week's worth of sales in the BA, maybe a 2% increase in a year.

Furthermore, it's not like the guy who got hired last month is looking at a million dollar payday when they issue their IPO.

There was a huge boom in the 90s and early 00's because there were dozens and dozens of companies having IPOs and making big payouts.

One company with a couple thousand employees is not the same thing.

Robber Baron Elite Scum   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 6:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike     Comment 23

Facebook is a over-valued worthless company that will go broke. If you own stock... Sell out!

RentingForHalfTheCost   Mon, 9 Apr 2012, 12:57am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Facebook is a over-valued worthless company that will go broke. If you own stock... Sell out!

Member of Banking Aristocracy

+1

anon12366   Mon, 9 Apr 2012, 10:38am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

thomas.wong1986   Mon, 9 Apr 2012, 12:51pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 26

Kevin says

There was a huge boom in the 90s and early 00's because there were dozens and dozens of companies having IPOs and making big payouts.

Not entirely just being IPO, yes many IPOs in the late 90s were overvalued by 200-400x PE 100x sales.

Just because you have an IPO doesnt mean instant millionairs.

What do you say about all the other IPOs that were not overvalued.. so where were the multi millionairs from that lot ?

Where are the millionairs from todays IPOs like Invensense or Calvium Networks. .... as a matter of fact were are the millionairs from back in the days of Intel AMD Seagate and Cisco.. not many were made. take a little salt when you hear about IPOs and mega-millionaires

December 17, 1999
Ariba Buys Tradex in $1.86 Billion Stock Deal

http://partners.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/12/biztech/articles/17ariba.html

The run-up in Tradex's valuation was attributed in part to FreeMarkets' astounding initial public offering last Friday. FreeMarket, an online auctioneer that went public at $48 a share, saw its shares zoom up to $280 in their first day of trading, giving them a market capitalization of $9.5 billion.

Kevin   Tue, 10 Apr 2012, 7:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 27

Wtf are you even talking about? Do you really want to argue that there weren't a bunch of people getting rich in the dot com boom?

B.A.C.A.H.   Tue, 10 Apr 2012, 1:17pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 28

bubblesitter says

Yeah,yeah China/India decides US home prices. Thanks for cracking me up. LMAO.

That is funny. The U.S., no. The Fortress, yes.

Just like, in reverse of the situation before WWII, expats did not decide home prices across China, just inside of The Shanghai International Settlement.

bubblesitter   Tue, 10 Apr 2012, 2:00pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 29

B.A.C.A.H. says

The U.S., no. The Fortress, yes.

Prove it. Prove that the money is coming from China. Are all of those immigrants coming here with how much money? You need to move out of your baseless China and Fortress theory. Even that cracks me up!

RentingForHalfTheCost   Tue, 10 Apr 2012, 2:27pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 30

Funny story. I have a few friends working at Facebook. I talked to one the other day and asked if he was going to buy when he got access to his shares on the open market. On paper he says he is valued at about 2.5m. His reply. "Hell no, have you seen the prices around here". I didn't dare tell him that people are counting on his kind to keep their over-inflated house price going. He talked more about the idea of doing nothing for a while. At 28 years old, and that kind of loot, housing might not be the first thing on your mind. He is paying $800/mth right now rooming with a few mates. He thinks that is expensive. ;)

Kevin   Tue, 10 Apr 2012, 3:08pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

bubblesitter says

B.A.C.A.H. says

The U.S., no. The Fortress, yes.

Prove it. Prove that the money is coming from China. Are all of those immigrants coming here with how much money? You need to move out of your baseless China and Fortress theory. Even that cracks me up!

In the bay area, money "from China/India" is certainly present, but it isn't money that was brought over by "rich asians". It's engineers working at apple, google, etc. That money would be there regardless of the engineer's ethnicity though.

bubblesitter   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 2:09am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 32

Kevin says

In the bay area, money "from China/India" is certainly present, but it isn't money that was brought over by "rich asians". It's engineers working at apple, google, etc. That money would be there regardless of the engineer's ethnicity though.

Makes some sense. In that case they are Americans,not Chinese/Indians. It is still money they earned here. If they want to overextend and think this a new normal then so be it - But certainly money is not coming from China/India - that's BS.

CL   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 2:27am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 33

bubblesitter says

Prove it. Prove that the money is coming from China. Are all of those immigrants coming here with how much money? You need to move out of your baseless China and Fortress theory

Further, do all Chinese and Indian nationals have that much money, and not care about getting good deals or have financial advisers, or do they ALL just plop down whatever any asks of them? I'd have to think at least half are savvy shoppers.

rootvg   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 2:38am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 34

Kevin says

bubblesitter says

B.A.C.A.H. says

The U.S., no. The Fortress, yes.

Prove it. Prove that the money is coming from China. Are all of those immigrants coming here with how much money? You need to move out of your baseless China and Fortress theory. Even that cracks me up!

In the bay area, money "from China/India" is certainly present, but it isn't money that was brought over by "rich asians". It's engineers working at apple, google, etc. That money would be there regardless of the engineer's ethnicity though.

Peter Schiff has been warning for years about Chinese bidding up our real estate. We know for a fact that it happened in LA beginning in 2000. Most of us have heard the stories about limos pulling up in front of middle class homes in Pasadena with guys carrying suitcases full of cash. I moved to LA in 2003 and it was all the rage then.

B.A.C.A.H.   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 3:50am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 35

bubblesitter says

Prove it. Prove that the money is coming from China. Are all of those immigrants coming here with how much money?

Did you not read my post? I did not write that the money is coming from China. I wrote that the new monied people are coming from places like China and India. They are new monied people, sending their kids to elite schools in their countries so that they can go to grad school, H-1, etc. here.

Yes, it is new wealth in those places, and it is a new wave of immigration from those places. And since they are elites with elite education, with their h-1's or green cards or whatever, they have access to jobs here than can pay for bidding up the prices in The Fortress.

That is what is difference from thomas.wong's halcyon days of the early 1990's.

You want proof? Just go visit Fortress Places like Cupertino and have a look at the people, especially the ones who don't look old enough to have bought their homes in the 1970's - 1980's. Or better yet take a look at the faces of the kids at the public K-12: somebody's got money or income or wealth to pay/borrow for Fortress Prices or Fortress Rents, and it ain't many haolies, brudda.

bmwman91   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 4:07am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

I don't think that they are all new monied immigrants though. I was getting some coffee at work the other day & I overheard some of my Indian coworkers talking. They are typical middle-class tech workers, and as far as I know citizens, and one was talking about how great the schools were in the area of Mountain View he just purchased a house in (Monta Loma). The other guy was congratulating him & then talking about how he bought a house in Cupertino a year ago for the schools.

I assume that their spouses work and pull pretty good incomes too. I bet that they saved for years and then borrowed as much as they possibly could to get in to those places. My fiancee works at a Taiwanese PC hardware company, and she says that many of her coworkers (Chinese/Taiwanese) have similar stories. They buy in Cupertino & Saratoga for the schools, and constantly bitch about the stress of barely making house payments. Lots of them also have hefty car payments too.

As I have said in the past, just because someone isn't white & doesn't speak English does not mean that they are FOBs with suitcases of cash. There is most definitely a cultural component driving this irrational desire to buy into "top schools," with many different facets. However, plenty of white Americans spew the same nonsense about "needing" to live [wherever] to get into schools. They probably aren't competing all that well in hot areas like Cupertino because American culture doesn't promote saving, whereas many eastern ones do. Guess who can make the down payments needed in these areas? It also helps a lot that Asians & Indians typically live multi-generationally, so grandma & grandpa can sell their place & give mom & dad the cash for the house that they live in with them.

NOW, the values of first or second generation kids are pretty different than those of their parents. They don't generally want mom & dad living with them when they are grown up, aren't quite as much of savers and don't seem be as mindless about the "top schools" stuff.

B.A.C.A.H.   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 4:18am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 37

beemerbimmerman,

yep.

Wealth is wealth whether it's from the pooling of the family money or the gradual accumulation by the saving or the two-income techie big salaries to qualify for the big loans.

Wealth is wealth and that is what is required to pay the rent or the mortgage/property tax (or to buy for cash) in The Fortress.

bmwman91   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 4:26am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 38

Sure. It always sounds (to me) like you are trying to argue that wealthy foreigners/immigrants are the ones bringing loads of cash over here. There are some of those, but I suspect them to be a minority in the RE market here. I guess I don't count citizens or naturalized citizens to be "foreigners" once they get to that point.

And herr BACAH, it ist "bimmerman" jaa. Das "beemer" refers to zee BMW motorcycle, und zee "bimmer" refers to zee BMW autocar jaaaaaaaaaaa.

/awful internet German accent

B.A.C.A.H.   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 4:35am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 39

bmwman91 says

It always sounds like you are trying to argue that wealthy foreigners/immigrants are the ones bring loads of cash over here.

I haven't ever wrote that argument, though some of that does go on, wealthy parents of families from places like Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, setting their kids up here. I know such people, you may too.

But there is also in much larger numbers a rise of new wealthy classes of folks in India and China, whose kids go to the elite schools in those places and the elite grad schools here. Many of them wind up here in the Bay Area with the big tech salaries that wind up bidding up the prices in The Fortress places.

This is different from thomas.wong's early 1990's when it was just a handful of rich fleeing Hong Kong or whatever.

bubblesitter   Wed, 11 Apr 2012, 4:53am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

B.A.C.A.H. says

And since they are elites with elite education, with their h-1's or green cards or whatever, they have access to jobs here than can pay for bidding up the prices in The Fortress.

Again you are contradicting yourself. Elites coming from China,so they must be bringing money from China,correct? Do you know that there is a cap on H-1 visas? Seriously,a guy with an H-1 can buy that Cupertino property? good luck on having people believe your elites from China theory.

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