WatchJust wondering if anyone out there is familiar with this area and what your thoughts on it were. Have a set of friends that bought a 5 BR home there in 2006 for $1.4 million and are looking to get out now. What kind of loss do you think they will see?
Is this a good time for me to take a look in that area, as it seems nice and prices are coming down there. What are your views of the area? Will it hold up?
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Pleasanton, CA
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They will lose it all. At least all of their down payment because they bought at the peek.
My view is that when the BA fortress areas continue to see price drops these drops will only get amplified in the outer areas like San Ramon. The outer areas rely on people with equity in the overprices BA to sell and buy down in price. I know a few people who sold in San Jose (Evergreen) when it was hot and bought in Pleasanton/San Ramon for much cheaper. That market pretty much died and is only getting worse. That can't be a good thing.
So, when the BA fat cats finally give up on their intense denial, San Ramon will not do well either. That is my take. Give it 1-2 years from here. Let the first wave go and test the water. ;)
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San Ramon is a great area but most people who can afford the prices now work in the city or in the valley. You ready to commute 1hr+ each way?
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Dublin, CA
I think it's a good time to look in the area provided that you are ok with the commute. I work in san ramon and commute in my case is the best I've ever had.
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I know someone who bought a bit later -at close to a million- they thought it was a bargain. Insanity-now a days for a million bucks you can get a house in Beverly HIlls. Amazing what the prices went for. Perhaps your friends should stop paying the mortgagae and pull on till they get kicked out.
If your friends were a big bank, the govt would bail them out-but sadly not for the common man.
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San Ramon, CA
RentingForHalfTheCost says
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San Ramon, CA
Wow - sad to see that...couldn't understand why they bid up the property that high to begin with....properties at the time were being listed for $900k, but the bidding wars took them higher.
They appear to be doing ok financially. She is a software engineer and he used to have a small business, but it went under....his latest business venture is trying to buy foreclosed condos in vegas and flip them or rent them out...he is asking me to go in on a few units with him...but I am very hesistant.
Have no idea how much money down they have in the property...with the husband, I get the impression that he either didn't contribute or tried to get the down payment lowered as much as possible...there weren't people buying in this area with only 3.5% or 0% down, were there?
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Alamo, CA
Got into San Ramon in 2006 for 1.25M, wife barefoot and pregnant with number 2, relocated from LA. No money down, 30 year fixed. 10K a month nut between the first and second. Short sale in 2009 for 835K. 5br 3bath, 3000 sf, good schools and neighborhood.
We have been renting ever since, looking around for a good deal but happy to keep renting and even downsize to a smaller rental if rents go up, rather than by something we aren't happy with.
San Ramon is OK, but lots of tract style mini Mcmansions. We prefer older coinstruction and mature trees. The area still has more room for development and ongoing new construction in the Windermere area. I can't help but think that values there will drop more than Danville and Alamo. There is a lot more inventory available, although I don't have a good feel for demand level. Must be lots of underwater owners, half of our street turned over between 2008 and 2011
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San Ramon, CA
Pedro -
Wow, man I feel for you. Hope things are getting better.
You said about half your street turned over between 2008 and 2011...wonder how many of the original buyers are still there?
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Wow, there is a nice little cluster of homes in Norris Canyon headed over the cliff. Wonder what that will do to property values?
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Oakland, CA
Median San Ramon prices according to Zillow estimates:
Feb '06: $850k
Feb '12: $614k
Zillow is just a crude estimate, but you get the idea.
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I think 300-400k median should make it ok. There is so much land there and the houses are all new/newish. Not like some of the old cities, where you have at least a few people who have paid off mortgages.
My friend in Hayward bought a house for 30k a couple of decades ago. San Ramon does not have that-all expensive mortgages.