The source for this is said to be the CBO.
Back in 2001, the CBO projected a cumulative surplus of $6 trillion
By marcus Follow Fri, 6 Apr 2012, 9:55pm 9,616 views 84 comments
In Glendale CA 91206
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Bush said "It's our money, we know what to do with it better than the government", so he gave tax cut that went mostly to high income people.
But really the projected surplus was the social security surplus. Which was essentially redistributed to the rich. Remember Al Gore with his "lock box" idea. What a different world this would be.
And now after two wars and trillions of dollars in tax cuts, we are going to be told that we need cuts to social services.
Wtf ?
Why isn't this story being shouted from the roof tops ? ( I know the answer - we've swung so far to the right that even the left is to the right of what should be center )
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So in other words this crappiest economic time since the black plague isnb't really happening, right Marcus? I bet you crap candy cane stools in your world.
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Yes, ummm.... that sums it up perfectly. Glad to see that as always you completely understand where I'm coming from.
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iwog says
Chirp...chirp...chirp...
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Where's all the Conservatives who insist that Obama created this massive national debt? Someone please set us straight.
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47 male
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CaptainShuddup says
Why are you so scared to talk about the graph? Why does irrational fear of liberals rule your life?
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Our great grandchildren will still be paying for the eight years of Conservative policies that lasted from 2000 to 2008.
Vote Republican for more of the same: More Middle East war, more bloated defense budgets, more nation building, and shipping the rest of America's wealth overseas.
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I'm still waiting for the Conservatives to weigh in here. Why all the silence?
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Here, try this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_public_debt
Your messiah has spent more than virtually all past presidents combined. You people live in fantasyland.
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Honest Abe says
Abe is very typical of today's Republicans. He TOTALLY ignores the thread, the graph, and any data associated with it. He simply will not allow himself to talk about things he's not allowed to talk about.
Instead he posts a non-relevant link and repeats the talking point drilled into him by Newscorp.
This is intellectual death folks.
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Honest Abe says
Translation: This topic is far beyond Abe's comprehension.
Imagine a household that was already living way beyond its means
and then expenses stayed the same while income dropped drastically.
This same kind of scenario is what lead to the exploding deficits under Obama. The expenses of two wars, medicare part D, and the Bush tax cuts, all continued, along with the rest of federal govt, while GDP and tax revenues dropped, to levels way below what had been expected.
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/24/obama-shatters-spending-record-year-presidents/
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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/7/curl-a-few-words-cover-a-whole-lot-of-trouble/?page=all
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Conversation with a Republican
Board: "Abe, what do you think about Bush being responsible for most of the deficit spending under Obama?"
Abe: "OBAMA SPENDED ALL DA MONEY!!!"
Board: "No Abe, we're talking about the fact that Obama's budget includes huge spending increases left to him by the Bush administration. What do you think about that?
Abe: "OBAMA SPENDED ALL DA MONEY!!! Lookie I got links!!!"
Board: "Uh Abe, George Bush and the Republican congress enacted a massive entitlement program called Medicare D which has had a significant effect on the current budget and will affect government spending for decades to come. Don't you think that Obama shouldn't be blamed for this?
Abe: "OBAMA SPENDED ALL DA MONEY!!! I SMART, YOU DUM DUM!"
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Honest Abe says
Yes it took longer for Bush to accomplish the same, but he did it during decent economics growth with off the books spending on wars, I might add (a practice that Obama ended).
Yes, Obama added some minor spending, but that's not where the deficit came from. Bush's wars spending and tax cut spending and medicare part D spending all continued under Obama, except tax revenues decreased.
I don't argue with you because I expect you to comprehend any of this Abe. But I guess I can hope that one or two intelligent republicans read it and maybe get a new insight or two.
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Why won't anyone address this?
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Nomograph says
As the chart shows... War, 2001 recession, just like back in 1940s plus global competition. Tax cut was made to spur investment capital spending into US industries.
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thomas.wong1986 says
You've just described the gray area. That's hardly addressing the main point now is it.
thomas.wong1986 says
It was? Then how come it didn't work?
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A quote:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/timothy-noah/102447/back-1955
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I wonder how much has to do with people simply making less.
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marcus says
It's all a big con job. There's $2.5T left to steal from the middle class -- their excess social security tax payments that have accrued 1990-2009. Take about 10% of the 12.4% SSA taxes you paid during that time -- that plus compounding interest is what's at stake here.
It's going to be like taking candy from a baby really, some Republican operatives mau mauing and rioting like they did in late 2000 to shut discussion and the rule of law down.
Who's going to defend the middle class's $2.5T sitting in the "trust fund"? The corporate press? They're the ones who are on the hook for paying back that money -- ~$100B/yr in extra taxes -- as is anyone who's income ISN'T hit by FICA -- this year's cap is at $110,000.
Politicians? Their campaign contributions don't come from the 90% who earn under the cap.
The System is searching for a way to apply the Big Screw one more time. There's enough conservatives running around now to finally get what they want and destroy the New Deal and roll back what's left of LBJ's Great Society too.
This is about to become a much meaner place.
marcus says
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=6jK
less and less income is coming from wages.
iwog says
iwog, you're asking about their religion. You know it's bullshit, they know it's bullshit, but we have to pretend that these people are serious and not the clowns they are -- it's really quite bizarre.
What the Bush tax cuts really did was help get the housing boom going more than anything. Boosting the child credit really stuffed more money into family budgets, and they went right out and bid up the cost of housing, probably dollar for dollar.
Back in 2001 this was before I got into Georgism, so I didn't see this dynamic beforehand, but now I hope this 'all-devouring rent' principle is as clear as day to everyone.
More tax cuts aren't going to fix anything, either. The core problem is the rich are making all the money now and the lower 90% are increasingly getting tapped by life expenses -- rents, health care, education, energy, and the $300B/yr out of our paychecks going to China and not coming back.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
2013 is going to be an interesting political battle should Obama beat Romney. Just reinstating the Bush tax rates isn't going to fix anything but it will be an interesting experiment to see what rents and home prices do.
Last time Congress raised income taxes in 1991-93 home prices did take it in the pants.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=6k6
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Honest Abe says
CNS is "our" trusted network news? Check your link again, you entirely silly person.
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Nomograph says
Nomograph says
Nomograph says
Nomograph says
But...Obama's a socialist! And he was influenced by Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright!
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I'm a contrarian, so here's my pass at shooting holes in your whole "us vs them", "Repubs vs Dems" budget battle BS that has taken over politics today. Remember, we are ALL in this together.
First, the CBO projections at the end of 2001 were based off of revenue that recently included an indefinite extension of the Internet Bubble. That was not realistic.
Second, this chart does not account for spending, which has grown from 1.9T in 2001 to 3.6T in 2011. This, obviously, is the real problem...regardless of where it was spent, or who spent it ... the issue is that BOTH parties are spending way beyond their means.
Third, all CBO projections are a point in time estimate based off of the current view of all the BS tax rules and laws from delayed temporary tax cuts, AMT's, and other such short term fixes that end up with long term complications that cloud the picture. For example, long term projections will include the ending of short term tax 'cuts'...and it never works out that way.
United we stand, divided we fall.
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Your analysis is fine, but keep in mind we're talking to people who hear "Obama is responsible for 5 trillions in deficit spending!" on Newscorp and believe it without question.
Step 1 is curing the brain damage of the right.
Step 2 is convincing people we're all in this together and work for compromise.
There isn't any salvation for the USA when the only conversation is the left trying to convince the right what is real and what is fantasy. This thread is a great example of this.
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iwog says
If you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes the truth.
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Nomograph says
This mess will unravel within our lifetimes. Uncle Sam is earns approx $2.2T and spends $3.6T (including $480B to service our debt). Our debt seems to be accelerating as well. I also think a number of things will further accelerate our debt increase: the baby boomers retiring, Japanese defaulting, and EU countries defaulting.
I strongly urge everyone to educate themselves about what happens in the event of a default. Forewarned is forearmed. Things may happen differently as many things are unique to the U.S.
Look, I don't intend to be a fear monger, but this is what I truly believe.
Nomograph says
Because they can't handle the truth! Hahaha.
The chart above shows that Republican policies enacted under Bush began blowing up just before Obama took office. Now, you have every Republican pointing at Obama, but he was simply the guy in office when Bush's policies were blowing up even bigger.
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epinpb says
There's a reason the Republicans are called the Party of No! It's their way or the highway. Furthermore, Obama ain't got balls. He usually ends up bending over giving the Republicans 90% of what they wanted anyway.
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epinpb says
Not to mention they are comparing 8 years of Bush's spending to 3 years of Obama's spending. Did Obama as a Senator vote against any of the spending programs?
Speaking of faulty CBO projections. Anyone see that the latest study on Obamacare says it will add $340 Billion to our deficit? If I was a Republican consultant, I would be running non-stop videos 24/7 of Obama saying that he would not sign a healthcare bill that would add one dollar to our deficit during the Fall election season.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/health-care-law-will-add-340-billion-to-deficit-new-study-finds/2012/04/09/gIQAti1o6S_story.html
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epinpb says
I'd love to know how much of those increases are attributable to increases in social security payments, medicare payment increases (part D?), and war spending(which these days is on the books).
Republicans will say yes, social security and medicare are going up so fast that we
have to cut them.
But to that I say, then how come we could afford the Bush Tax cuts, and two wars? That money should have been saved to cover these predictable increases.
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socal2 says
That study comes from conservative Charles Blahous, not the CBO. Furthermore that $340 billion is over 10 years meaning it will come out to $34 billion per year, which is little more than a rounding error on the federal budget.
For perspective, George Bush took $10 billion, had it converted to cash, and lost it in the Iraq desert.
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socal2 says
Klein points out that under Blahous' methodology, there's no deficit problem:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-weird-baseline-obamacares-opponents-are-using/2012/04/10/gIQAu3de8S_blog.html#pagebreak
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marcus says
These help any?
I must say that the few comments we've been getting from this boards' Repubs have been surprisingly terrible if not flat out facetious, it may have been educational for a few fence sitters but I doubt its changed any R's minds.
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tts says
True. At least maybe independents will weigh out the facts.
Nice graphs. The biggest factors appear to be, the wars, the tax cuts and the revenue decreases (rust color). Medicare D pretty small in comparison.
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socal2 says
Once again! You guys keep addressing what got spent under who's office? Not about who's responsible for how much, as the original picture addressed.
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msilenus says
Blahouse addressed this criticism today.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/aroy/2012/04/11/why-obamacare-expands-the-deficit-charles-blahous-rebuts-his-critics/
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iwog says
Not surprising that the same IWOG who said with presumably a straight face that California only has a minor budget problem would say that adding $34 Billion more a year to our deficit is no big deal. Obama flat out said he would not sign a healthcare bill that added one dollar to our deficit. Deal with it.
IRT - Bush blowing surpluses etc. I seem to remember that Bush "inherited" the dot.com recession and then we got struck with our nation's biggest attack since Pearl Harbor on 9/11. Do you think those little events had any impact on our economy and spending priorities?
Anyway, since Bush managed to get majorities in Congress including Democrats to approve and fund "his wars" and Obama has doubled down in Afghanistan.........I think the spending blame goes far and wide to both parties.
I was very critical of Republican spending under Bush, but at least there appears to be new thinking in the Tea-party faction of the Republican party that at least pays lip service to the need to get our government deficits under control.
Whereas the Democrats are like IWOG telling us there is no problem at all and we just need to raise taxes on the rich to right the ship.
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socal2 says
Okay I'll deal with it. When Obama signed the health care bill, the CBO was reporting it would run a surplus instead of a deficit.
Sooooooooo..........you're blaming Obama for not getting into a time machine to find out if the bill would really cost money? The Republican desperation to actually have a point results in some very odd conclusions.
socal2 says
Nope, I also said we should print money. Get it right.
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socal2 says
Bush's economic response to 9/11 was...............to drastically cut taxes. That way when he spent trillions on an unnecessary war in Iraq, it would make a big deficit into a gigantic deficit.