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Nomo, Over and Out

By Nomograph   Follow   Sun, 8 Apr 2012, 5:31pm   2,002 views   20 comments
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I started reading Patrick.net back in 2007. Since then, prices have collapsed in many areas, a banking crisis has largely come and gone, and a bad recession has mostly played out, national elections have occurred, and a war has finally ended.

In my opinion the worst is over in terms of the economic repercussions from the housing bubble, and the only reason I really come here is to entertain myself in the politics section. In other words, Patrick.net has outlived it's usefulness to me, and I have certainly outlived my usefulness to Patrick.net. I've enjoyed my time here and my interactions with all the various and sundry denizens of this place, but it's time to move on. I may still read the news and information here, but this will be my final post.

Best wishes to everyone, I wish you all much success, and I hope you all get the dream house at a bargain price!

Nomograph

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1. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 29 threads 1,475 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   1   5:55pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   See ya Nomo. I enjoyed all your posts.

2. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,054 comments

   2   6:13pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Likewise. Adios Nomo. I don't know if you're right about the economic repercussions of the housing crisis being over. Long term rates are still artificially low (Fed buying up our Long term debt to keep RE prices from dropping more), without undue inflationary pressure yet. Money isn't really being lent out at these low rates all that much. Artificially low rates have significant impact on other markets causing other securities to be over priced, as money chases returns where it can find them. Meanwhile after years of these rates we haven't seen since the 50s, unemployment is still ridiculously high, which throws recent monetarism models out the window. (in other words we still have concurrent deleveraging deflationary pressure at the same time big money printing is going on with somewhat stalled global economies) To top things off we have a political season which may give us the biggest choice in policies and visions for the future we have seen in a long time, giving us a big choice, but with it still unclear that we can get past the most dysfunctional government we have had in my lifetime. It's totally unclear how this plays out, but one thing for certain, it isn't over. I wish it was.

3. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,094 comments

   3   6:38pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Doc, Thanks for the banter. Goodtimes. God Bless you and yours. Adios.

4. Honest Abe Follow Befriend (41) 91 threads 1,806 comments

   4   7:52pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nomo, I think things will continue to get worse until one of two things happen. Until then, all the best. Abe

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 272 threads 12,452 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   5   9:45pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Smooth seas Nomo. You were certainly one of the smart ones.

6. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 29 threads 1,475 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   6   11:13pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   marcus says Meanwhile after years of these rates we haven't seen since the 50s, unemployment is still ridiculously high, which throws recent monetarism models out the window. In my time away from here I've been doing some more FRED charting and stuff, looking over the CBO projections for the rest of the decade, and examining the US's demographics in more detail. What I've seen has added a few gray hairs . . . http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=6jK is wage income over personal income. Aside from quantile distributionary effects, this shows how the paycheck economy is just getting riddled. And it's going to get worse! http://facts.kff.org/chart.aspx?cb=58&sctn=170&ch=1808 shows how between 2000 and 2030 the 65+ population is going to double from 40M to 80M. is a graph showing how our working-age population is going to top out this century at around 160M. Not that we have the jobs for everyone anyway, but between now and 2030 we're going to get a veritable bumrush -- the boomers are going to retire and (hopefully) Gens X and Y will take over their jobs. But this transition means each of these replacement jobs basically has to pay the pension of the guy who's retiring from it, in some cases 20-30% of the salary. Then there's the national debt and debt-to-GDP. The CBO's projections are utterly nutty about future GDP over the next 10 to 75 years. They're projecting 2.3% real growth on average out to 2085. This is a real $24T economy by 2030 and $36T by 2050. If CBO is right and we have a $24T real economy In 2030, with a 70% participation rate we'll have ~160M people employed (30M more than now) and a per-worker productivity of $150,000, $40,000/yr more than now. I just don't see this happening. What I do see is our massive trade deficit with China giving us fake productivity growth, we're exporting our inflation to them and getting free stuff on loan to make us look more productive. Since 1996 we've given China $665B of stuff and they've given us $3.2T stuff in return, a $2.5T account deficit and thus a wealth multiplier of ~5X for us. This trade deficit was ~10% of our nominal YOY GDP gain in the late 90s, ~25% of our nominal GDP gain in the early-mid 2000s, 40% in 2010 and 50% in 2011! The national debt is going to be $20T by 2020 and $30T by 2030 if not more. Are we going to tax or print to pay that? Or maybe both? How much longer are we going to be running $300B/yr trade deficits with China? What's going to happen with the trillions of our USDs we've given them? Will they buy our food and energy with this, driving up the cost for us? I just see this nation cruising for a colossal bruising later this decade. Now, Japan has managed to run up their national debt to 200% of GDP, maybe we can too. Dunno.

7. Bellingham Bill Follow Befriend 29 threads 1,475 comments Bellingham, WA Premium

   7   11:30pm Sun 8 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wrt this chart: http://facts.kff.org/chart.aspx?cb=58&sctn=170&ch=1808 the 2.3 workers per beneficiary estimate in 2030 is a joke. 80M x 2.3 is 184M "workers", 50M more than now. Are there going to be 50M more jobs here in 2030 than now? Assuming we can hold our own at 130M jobs, that's more like 1.6 workers per beneficiary -- at $10,000/yr cost per beneficiary that's going to be a $6000 per-worker cost, more than twice the current Medicare withtholding. Are we going to double the Medicare payroll tax by then? How about SSA? We should slowly add 2% to it not cut 2% like we are now! How is the price level going to adjust when FICA is ~19% and not 10% like it is now? Actual per-beneficiary cost is going to go well over $10,000 once the baby boom hits 70, btw. Currently the bb is aged 48 to 66, and the median boomer is age 56, so we've still got ~15 years before hitting maximal systemic stress. One thing I really don't understand is the new dynamic of so much money being cycled into the 80M boomers via their pensions and health care demand. The economy is really going to perceptibly shift later this decade to serve their demands -- they're going to be the ones with all the money to spend, and our FICA will be flowing right back into the economy via their spending. Oh, if you're a teacher you should know that there will be 10% more school-age children in 2030 compared to now. That's good for you I guess, but just one more expense the taxpayers are going to have to pony up for!

8. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 246 threads 4,658 comments

   8   6:23am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   I'll keep a bowl packed for you, for when ever you need a toke of reality.

9. TMAC54 Follow Befriend (9) 70 threads 930 comments San Leandro, CA

   9   6:49am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   You may hold the record on Patrick.net as the soul who could swing from highly intelligent deposition to immature name calling. A studying sociologists dream. Good luck with all your future endeavors. Don't bite the hand that listens to you !

10. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,054 comments

    10   7:09am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Troy delurking says Assuming we can hold our own at 130M jobs, that's more like 1.6 workers per beneficiary -- at $10,000/yr cost per beneficiary that's going to be a $6000 per-worker cost, more than twice the current Medicare withtholding. Something has to give. One of the things that will have to give is health care costs. A larger % of healthcare will be going to those under medicare. If medicare doesn't get disassembled by the right wing before then, then the govt will have big leverage negotiating prices. Not that that solves the problem, but it's one of the things that will have to happen. Another is that quality of health care will probably have to drop. I hope not, because I'm one of those boomers, but it probably will.

11. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    11   7:09am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   But Nomo, you can't leave until you convince the Patnet Birthers that Obama is a US citizen!

12. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 49 threads 2,625 comments Premium

    12   8:57am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Peace out Nomo, your biting wit will be missed.

13. leo707 Follow Befriend (12) 10 threads 3,516 comments Oakland, CA leo707's website Premium

    13   10:06am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   Hey Nomograph, I heard Obama wasn't really born in the US. Is this true?

14. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 246 threads 4,658 comments

    14   11:01am Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   thunderlips11 says wit Is that what you crazy kids call dementia?

15. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 166 threads 5,054 comments

    15   10:59pm Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I'm surprised we haven't heard from Ellie in this thread. I'm assuming she's devastated.

16. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

    16   11:11pm Mon 9 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   PLEASE don't leave us here alone with all these mean people! Are we just kittens to be tossed off the bridge in a sack? *sniff*

17. Bap33 Follow Befriend (3) 12 threads 3,094 comments

    17   10:38am Tue 10 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   marcus says I'm surprised we haven't heard from Ellie in this thread. I'm assuming she's devastated. or, ellie = Nomo I'm kidding ... geeeze!! lol

18. elliemae Follow Befriend (25) 413 threads 6,977 comments Saint George, UT elliemae's website

    18   7:22am Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Bap33 says or, ellie = Nomo Nope. Sorry. I just never saw this until now. Nomo was fun and will be missed. Ellie herself had to take a short time off for personal reasons - havent' been posting much. But I'm back.

19. American in Japan Follow Befriend (28) 149 threads 1,398 comments

    19   1:30am Sat 4 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   We will miss you Nomo...

20. marco Follow Befriend 78 comments Black Mountain, NC

    20   6:00am Sat 4 Aug 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I heard Nomo got his real estate license.....