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2012 YY Inventory, Median Price, and Age of Inventory on the Market


By BayArea   Follow   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 7:53am PDT   5,766 views   36 comments
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Hi folks, just came across this link showing a comparison between 2012 & 2011 inventory, median price, and # of days on market in three Northern California cities:

http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx?source=web

YY Inventory:
Oakland: -47%
San Francisco: -29%
San Jose: -34.4%

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

YY Median Age of Inventory:
Oakland: -42.9%
San Francisco: -26%
San Jose: -27.3

What's your theory for what is pushing supply down this significantly? Let's focus on that since the Median List Price and the Median Age of Inventory are just outputs of the supply drop.

BayArea

bubblesitter   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 12:08pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 1

Isn't this site backed,owned,operated by NAR?

tdeloco   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 1:27pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 2

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Hysteresis   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 2:58pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

list price isn't as useful as sale price.

ThreeBays   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 3:02pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

tdeloco says

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Bingo.

Inventories are down to about half YoY.
Sales are down YoY too.

In other words supply is pushed down by lack of interest to sell, not by an increase in sales.

thomas.wong1986   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 4:37pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 5

BayArea says

YY Median List Price:
Oakland: +10.4%
San Francisco: +1.1%
San Jose: +7.9%

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

Hysteresis   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 5:02pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

thomas.wong1986 says

Funny... Dqnews.com which is published nationwide shows SF Bay Area prices falling.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120118.aspx

dqnews reports sale price.

this is list price.

big difference.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 5:05pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

I believe everything I am told by the NAR

xenogear3   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 6:49pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 8

50% visitors here are "unemployed" realtors.

Just like many people point out, the sale is down too.
We really don't know if the next leg will up or down.
Whatever it is, it will be big.

lostand confused   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 7:42pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

I think the sellers are hoping that the market has turned. Judging by Japan, we may have along time to go-unless jobs come back. Either of our crazy parties are not itnerested in tarriffs or bringing jobs back-just blaming the other party. So we are stuck and our standard of living will probably go down to match the Chinese.

tatupu70   Thu, 12 Apr 2012, 10:12pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

ThreeBays says

Sales are down YoY too.

Source?

According to Thomas' link, they are up:

"A total of 7,494 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in December. That was up 18.6 percent from 6,317 in November, and up 4.4 percent from 7,178 in December 2010. The year-over-year increase was the sixth in a row, according to San Diego-based DataQuick."

FortWayne   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 12:15am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 11

Watch the real inventory early next year, it will be big.

bubblesitter   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 2:00am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 12

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

I believe everything I am told by the NAR

Yep,like 2006 was a good time to buy!

Goran_K   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 2:09am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 13

It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

bubblesitter   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 2:25am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 14

Goran_K says

It's seriously one of the worst times to buy that I can remember since late 2008 (low inventory, high priced properties from bubble buyers trying to bail out too late).

Seriously,those $8000 hand outs from uncle sam screwed them up! In my zipcode(in socal) there are quite a few that are popping up on redfin - bought around 2008/2009 and and are now listed lower then the bought price.

Goran_K   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 2:52am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 15

Yeah, I'm surprised to see the amount of people "short selling" after 2 freaking years.

Look at this FHA'er right here in Irvine:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/22-Atherton-92620/home/4781303

Trying to get out with a $40,000 loss, no problem though, that was Uncle Sam money anyway.

Good grief.

edvard2   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 3:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

Winter is typically the slowest when it comes to home sales and thus inventory drops. Also- the weather for the past few months around here has been pretty crappy. That too effects the market.

bubblesitter   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 3:29am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

But,but 2009 was the bottom!!!

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 3:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

It's 10x in 5 years. You aren't in now, your kids will be living in abandoned cars and boxes.

BayArea   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 3:42am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 19

edvard2 says

I think this could be summed up quite easily: Seasonal changes.

The numbers above compare the same season this year to the same season exactly 1 year ago.

BayArea   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 3:44am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 20

tdeloco says

People don't wanna sell. Isn't that obvious?

Sure, but let's take it a step further.

Why do they want to sell less today than they did 1 year ago?

And foreclosures filings are down 17% from one year ago

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/04/12/foreclosures-are-at-a-4-year-low-but-thats-not-necessarily-good-news/

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