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S&P 500 Index To Drop 43% To 800

By Dan8267   Follow   Fri, 13 Apr 2012, 12:54am   1,192 views   11 comments
In Boca Raton FL 33433   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/12/gary-shilling-forecasts-recession-sp-500-index-to-drop-43-to-800-gld-slv-tza-sds-spy-skf/

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1. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

   1   1:58am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have a lot gold and Apple stock, so I am safe.

2. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 55 threads 521 comments Roslyn, NY

   2   2:59am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says I have a lot gold Gold actually fell in prices during the 2008 crash. They then went up AFTER the stimulus, bail-outs, trillions of reckless spending and other government financial aid programs. Gold is also rigged by the way. Silver is much better. It's being manipulated by J.P. Morgan to try to keep the prices low.

3. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

   3   4:30am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Gold actually fell in prices during the 2008 crash. Then I have apple stock. Everyone has to eat.

4. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 55 threads 521 comments Roslyn, NY

   4   8:37am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says Then I have apple stock. Everyone has to eat. I don't think Gold will completely collapse. I still think Gold is very valuable. It's just manipulated and deflation always causes gold prices to go down. Inflation is great for gold prices though. It really protects your wealth. It's smart though to prepare for both inflation and deflation. So either way, you are covered.

5. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (17) 785 threads 7,962 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

   5   11:19am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says I have a lot gold and Apple stock, so I am safe. I would advise not putting all your eggs in one basket, or all your investments in the stock of one company. The only thing that all financial experts agree upon is diversification.

6. John Bailo Follow Befriend 95 threads 472 comments Kent, WA John Bailo's website

   6   11:47am Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says Then I have apple stock. Think pocket calculators will retain their value?

7. YesYNot Follow Befriend (2) 17 threads 443 comments Reston, VA

   7   12:51pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Maybe the joke is stocks of apples (the food) are good when gold goes down?

8. Plays2win Follow Befriend (1) 2 threads 14 comments San Ramon, CA

   8   6:23pm Fri 13 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Just short the S&P. You'll do fine.

9. Brendan Follow Befriend 2 comments

   9   6:17am Sat 14 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Well Gary Schilling's last prediction on the S&P 500 was off by a factor of 2. In 2009 he said the market would bottom at 350 or so, because 8 is the magic number on his 10 year CAPE after a big crash. In 2010 he said the S&P wouldn't hit 1400 until 2020. Predicting where the market will be in a year is not possible for anyone and Shilling has proven time and again that he is an abysmal market timer. I also enjoy Shilling's logic on 30 year bonds. Interest rates have gone down for 30 years, thus buy 30 year bonds. Um, excuse me wasn't this the same logic people had on stocks 12 years ago that you called "irrational exuberance?" Inflation is about 3% now, so you are locking in no nominal return for your entire investing lifetime, does that make sense? Put another way: with US debt at 100% GDP and the printing presses running into overdrive you want to lend money at a 3% interest rate to a country that has told you through it's actions it will inflate its way out of its debt? 30 year bonds can hedge a balanced portfolio, but you are crazy if they are your only holding. And no, please don't put all your money in gold or apple. Just because something has gone up in price for a long time doesn't make it safe. Apple isn't overpriced, but their margins could always contract or growth could slow and the stock would go down. I have no idea how to value gold, so personally I stay away, but I can't say it's a bad idea. So just create a balanced portfolio and stick to it. Stop trying to predict where the market will go, but when it goes up too much rebalance to have less risk and when it goes down too much rebalance to take more risk. Right now maybe 50:50 stocks bonds and some long bonds or gold, if we get a 20% correction again, be happy and rebalance to favor stocks because they are a bargin.

10. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    10   12:50pm Sat 14 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Apple is making billions every month. I don't see how I will lose money on that stock.

11. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (17) 785 threads 7,962 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

    11   3:20pm Sat 14 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   xenogear3 says Apple is making billions every month. I don't see how I will lose money on that stock. Profit on stocks is proportional to (actual performance - anticipated performance). Remember the .com bust? Lots of wealth was created by the Internet, but everybody expect even more wealth, and so they lost money. Contrast that to Brazil, which everybody thought was in the crap, and it had modest growth. But since everyone thought it was crap, the return on investment was huge. A company could lose money and it's stock value could rise if it simply loses money at a smaller rate than expected.