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What's next in financial markets?


By Patrick   Follow   Mon, 16 Apr 2012, 10:27am PDT   10,923 views   70 comments   Watch (5)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

OK, back in 2008, I thought to myself "Boy, PMI is going to get creamed pretty soon. I should buy puts on PMI."

But I figured it couldn't be that easy, so did I nothing. PMI went to zero and I would have made a lot of money.

Then I thought, with all that bad mortgage debt out there, the Fed is going to to be desperate to increase the money supply, so commodities like gold will probably shoot up.

But I figured it couldn't be that easy, so I did nothing. Gold skyrocketed and looks like it has peaked now.

So now I'm thinking that the next thing will be a rise in interest rates and a fall in Treasuries. So I should short treasuries somehow.

But again I figure it can't be that easy. Japan has had ultra-low rates for more than 20 years.

Am I blowing it yet again?

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Monkeyswing   befriend   ignore   Sat, 21 Apr 2012, 6:11pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 31

My feeling is that deflation and contraction will be coming our way this summer as Europe continues to fall apart. This will cause commodities and the stock market to fall. Then, the FED will step in with QE3 to try and boost the stock market to make it look like things are actually okay. This will then be bullish for metals. So, save some money, wait, and then make a move when everyone's depressed and bearish. And if you're really savvy, which I'm not, short metals until QE is announced.

xenogear3   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 2:21am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 32

As long as US continue to outsource jobs to China, more pain to the world economy.

tr6   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 4:05am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 33

In a big picture, the Chinese economic boom is no different than the mid 1800s boom in the sugar plantations with slave labor all along Mississippi from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. The slave owners benefited from high sugar prices in Europe and cheap slave labor in US. They were the richest region in the world at the time. They spend their money on exuberant goods and speculated in land and other markets outside of the South.

tr6   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 4:13am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 34

Shorting treasuries is very difficult because you have to pay to short them. If you decide to short them today and interest rates don't move anywhere for a year, you are out 3% and that's if you do futures yourself (with etfs you have to add another 1% for expenses). If you started shorting them last year at 3.75% just like Paul Ryan (Romney's most likely VP choice) did, you would have lost a lot more than 3%. Luckily for him, I think he had only $15,000 invested.

Future's contract value is $100,000 - http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/us-treasury/10-year-us-treasury-note_contract_specifications.html

Stock market is benefiting from low treasury yields as compression in yields propagates into corporate bonds and makes it cheaper for those companies to finance buybacks and overall lowers their debt expenses. When interest rates rise, stocks will mostly likely suffer.

Vicente   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 2:14pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 35

treatmentreport says

just like Paul Ryan (Romney's most likely VP choice) did

God, really? I hadn't heard that rumour.

Hmmm, interesting.

tr6   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 2:52pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 36

Vicente,

I messed up. It was Eric Cantor, not Paul Ryan.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06/28/eric-cantor-is-short-treasurys-sort-of/

Mr. Cantor, who walked out of debt discussions with Vice President Joe Biden last week, owns up to $15,000 in shares of the ProShares Trust Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, Salon notes today, updating a Wall Street Journal report on this from last year.

clambo   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 3:07pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 37

So just what age did you bleeding hearts start performing work for money? I am a little bit curious.
What was it?
We rang doorbells of little old ladies when there was snow on the sidewalks. I shoveled snow in the snow for chump change. I was in 8th grade I think.
In the summer I mowed lawns, pulled out poison ivy from beach trails, dug trenches for fences, built stone walls, and did any odd jobs the neighbors would pay me to do.
In 9th grade we all thought it would be a bright idea to work saturdays and sundays at a car wash, which was like working an auto assembly line. You have a towel and wipe down the front right fender, passenger door. Repeat 500 times. We took the bus over to work.
The stupidist and worst was washing dishes in a hotel restaurant in the summer. There was no way the pay for this was worth the movies and hamburgers I could buy with that dough, so I was movitated to seek the little old lady clients.
I am constantly amazed by the nonsense and rantings of liberal twerps who think that they are entitled to my fucking MONEY to give to deadbeats.
Not one of you would dare even suggest to take it from me in public.
Obama has increased the debt by $5 trillion, this is simply a future tax on someone else. Why? To pay unemployment for 99 weeks, Solyndra, food stamps, Sec 8, free medical care to illegals, and yet my insistence that my money belongs to me means I support child labor?
Yeah, well, I WAS child labor and it's good for you. It builds character and self-confidence.

Vicente   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 3:11pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 38

clambo says

So just what age did you bleeding hearts start performing work for money? I am a little bit curious.

I was mowing lawns for money as soon as I could reasonably safely push the mower on my own. No riding mower of course. Not really sure but I think around 11. On weekends I'd help load boxes using a hand-truck into a trailer if my dad had a truck that need a load finished. Exciting when I was finally able to reach the pedals to drive the forklift!

The rest of your rant seems directed at some strawman liberal you have built in your own mind. You fight that strawman and win every time, it's amazing!

clambo   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 3:11pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 39

Back to the topic, the financial markets will do what they usually do, fluctuate. Those who own stocks will have made money in 20 years. Those who didn't invest in them won't have as much.
The same is very likely for the next 10 years.
Bonds will provide interest.
Did that clear it up for you guys?

clambo   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 3:15pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 40

I want to hear the stories, so I can get a better picture of who is suggesting we need to pay more of our money to others via taxes.

clambo   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 4:07pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 41

I also forgot to mention: I also do not like people stealing from me to support the goldbricks and partiers of the GSA and the Secret Service. They're all millionaires who can't even act like they work for the taxpayer.

xenogear3   befriend   ignore   Sun, 22 Apr 2012, 8:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 42

This "sell in May and go away" was definitely true in 2010 and 2011.
I never had the guts to short anything, but 2012 seems no different.

I bet the market will down 10+% in 1 day.

Vicente   befriend   ignore   Mon, 23 Apr 2012, 4:53am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 43

clambo says

I also do not like people stealing from me to support the goldbricks and partiers of the GSA and the Secret Service. They're all millionaires who can't even act like they work for the taxpayer.

Relevance to financial markets? Zero.

You out yourself as a bot who just posts random nonsense.

bob2356   befriend   ignore   Mon, 23 Apr 2012, 5:32am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 44

clambo says

Obama has increased the debt by $5 trillion, this is simply a future tax on someone else. Why? To pay unemployment for 99 weeks, Solyndra, food stamps, Sec 8, free medical care to illegals, and yet my insistence that my money belongs to me means I support child labor?

Those things add up to chump change at best. All together they don't come up to a rounding error in the current budget.

The 5 trillion went to pay for defense, interest on the debt, medicaid, and off budget wars. Fica is still covering Medicare/Social security so that's not any part of the debt. For now.

Which of these 4 items do you want to cut? Hint, illegals can't get medicaid except for er visits. According to a forbes or time article I read a couple of years ago about .7 to 1% of the medicaid budget is spent on illegals. Again, chump change.

Maybe you should actually read the federal budget and see where the money goes. Na, why bother, fox news will tell me everything I need to know.

xenogear3   befriend   ignore   Mon, 23 Apr 2012, 10:41am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 45

George Bush's tax cut and defense caused this $5 trillion deficit.
We should be back to normal if we let this tax act expires.

clambo   befriend   ignore   Mon, 23 Apr 2012, 3:12pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 46

You guys are nuts if you think that huge debt spending and huge debt to pay for social programs for illegals and other deadbeats doesn't affect financial markets?????
Check out Greece, Spain, Italy.
bob, I know a lot of illegals personally here. I lived in Mexico and I am bilingual. My friend's son got cancer treatment for free up at stanford and he's illegal. His wife gets treatment and medicine for free here at our local clinic for her diabetes. She goes to Emeline Ave.
He pays also nothing for his health care, and he also pays no taxes because he works for a guy who pays him cash. He and his wife have a big house in Oaxaca and about $70,000 in cash stashed.
I do not know ONE illegal alien who pays a penny for his health care. They also go directly to the emergency room at Dominican and sometimes also to Emeline Ave.
You guys think that everything doctors and nurses and drug companies do for people is FREE?

hanera   befriend   ignore   Mon, 23 Apr 2012, 5:23pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 47

Americans want to feel like generous rich folks who can help others, care about environment and afford to lead a flamboyant lifestyle.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 6:53am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 48

clambo says

You guys are nuts if you think that huge debt spending and huge debt to pay for social programs for illegals and other deadbeats doesn't affect financial markets?????

No, you're nuts because every time someone explains to you that these costs are MINISCULE compared to a single military weapons program, you totally ignore it and pretend that providing a free health clinic is what's bankrupting the country.

You and your silly Republican friends are TOTAL FAILURES at balancing the budget because you're not willing to examine where money really goes. Spending on "deadbeats" doesn't matter and doesn't affect the federal budget by more than pennies on the dollar.

Alternative? You're going to outlaw the requirement that emergency rooms admit anyone? Good luck with that. The first instance of a child dying on the sidewalk in front of a hospital because it was too expensive to stop the bleeding will get rid of the Republican party for good. I continue to believe that most Americans aren't sadistic assholes.

woppa   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 12:05pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 49

Couple assorted comments that I have on this...

xenogear hit the nail on the head about bush. He increased spending and decreased revenue simultaneously. Doesn't take a genius to guess what will happen next, budgeting 101 right there. Bush should go down as the worst president in history.

iwog, dont worry, i think by something like 2050 whites will be less than 50% of this country. The republican party is dying slowly but surely. Anyone who is wondering, I am white. I just think republicans are fucking morons. I also don't have much faith in democrats or our government as a whole but far and away republicans are THE WORST.

misc_login   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 3:32pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 50

If interest rates rise, isn't that good for banks? Therefore buy into BAC, WFC, JPM? Disclaimer: I got into BAC a bit at 5.5, 7.5 and 8 - but dumped them all last friday. I'm one of those buyers with no conviction.

Vicente   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 5:44pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 51

misc_login says

If interest rates rise, isn't that good for banks?

I think not. Think of yourself as a bank, they live on the spread of course, but "easy terms" are just as much a concern for them as you. They borrow money too.

What would you do if you could borrow at ZERO percent? You'd borrow to the moon. Even if you could only turn a measly few percent profit on it, it's free money. Banks are doing a lot of this.

As you start ramping interest rates, the prospect of paying all that interest back narrows your perspective yes? What if the best rate you could get is 20% how casually and often do you hit the loan window?

Exactly.

ArtimusMaxtor   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 8:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 52

Bank of America should have been dead a long time ago. The terms with them have been re-negotiated and re-negotiated. That back got it's nod back in the 90's. It's credit card portfolio is massive. That never gets talked about. Not to mention. It deals in nothing but residential home loans. Here do this go to their REO sites. You won't find many houses there. They hide their losses. Not wanting you to know their business or how bad it is. Banks ALWAYS DO THAT. With their REO's and losses. Bank America is not a Federal Reserve voter. However it's got some really big friends. Guys that don't want to fuck with little depositors cause its a pain. Like Chase Manhattan (Rockefeller) . Because it's a pain. Bank of NY and Hanover (The Quack of England). If you ever watch the History channel look at the documentry on oil. Talks all about Rockefeller. Leaves on minor detail out. Who financed Rockefeller. He got in the banking business somehow. They let him in he's a good boy. A very fast snake in the grass. The Quack? Fuck that bitch to. You want to match it all up with your history lessons. Don't bother. It's business. No sense being naive about it. Our dearest friend. When someones got you by the balls you tend to address them like that. Save the history talk for the tourists. The "Commonwealth" is made up of 54 countries. All borrowers. England does not control through conquest but lending. Let the people that like to fight and owe do the fighting if they want. They will supply the Prince and a photographer.

Controlling votes Fed. You have to remember in puppetland there are also "Front men".

First National Bank of New York. Quack

National Bank of Commerce. Fart

Hanover National Bank, New York. Quack

Go look for a branch of any of those banks. You ain't going to find them. Very few.

I mean I could go through history. Point out the fact they are Hohenzollern. Which makes them Kaiser rolls cousins. Go into what the fight WW1 and WW2 were really about. Nothing religous just more business. After WW2 they cut Germany in half they were such a pain in the ass.

Congressional people all owe these people the lenders. Even for their "campaign finance". Their homes, cars, businesses. For being where they are. The lenders got them there. Also the future because the lenders have to get them there again in a few years. Never going to change. It's not like the representatives are being called "yes sir" by the lenders it's more like its that other way around. So when they talk it's in their "native tounge" that being of a borrower. Face it this "country" is in debt to someone. No ones really fucking sure "who" for the most part. Or why the Chinese get to flood California ports with merchandise. If you don't behave they won't let you do Customer service anymore. Then again someone has to do the work.

There’s a room where the light won’t find you
Holding hands while the walls come tumbling down
When they do I’ll be right behind you.

bob2356   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 10:06pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 53

clambo says

Bob, I know a lot of illegals personally here. I lived in Mexico and I am bilingual. My friend's son got cancer treatment for free up at stanford and he's illegal. His wife gets treatment and medicine for free here at our local clinic for her diabetes. She goes to Emeline Ave.
He pays also nothing for his health care, and he also pays no taxes because he works for a guy who pays him cash. He and his wife have a big house in Oaxaca and about $70,000 in cash stashed.
I do not know ONE illegal alien who pays a penny for his health care. They also go directly to the emergency room at Dominican and sometimes also to Emeline Ave.

Yes and this has absolutely zero to do with the federal budget, which is what you were talking about originally. Please try to focus.

ER visits that go unpaid, illegals or good old citizen deadbeats, mostly gets shifted to insurance carriers of people who have insurance. That's a big part of where you get things like $50 for an aspirin. Some gets written off as charitable. Some gets charged back to the county or state. Depending on the state some may be charged back to medicaid, but this is far far from the majority of the charges. The amount of money spent by medicaid for illegals is a minuscule part of the federal budget.

But what the heck, if you want to believe that cutting off "welfare" will balance the budget then go for it. People also believe in Santa Clause and the Easter bunny.

ArtimusMaxtor   befriend   ignore   Tue, 24 Apr 2012, 11:44pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 54

Gee I guess someone has a use for "illegal aliens". If you don't want disgruntled people that are never "included", to burn the place to the ground. Give them some bread and cheese. After all whats a little more labor to get it done.

Paper never counts. I could give you some cash say 100,000 written on one bill. One piece of paper. However if you using that 100k written on that one piece of paper on it drains all the food off the shelves. I'm screwed. So whats worth more the one bill with 100k written on it or all that food?

See what I'm getting at. You might think hey its no skin off of your nose. Just give us all 100k apiece. Deal is all my labor goes away and you suck all my merchandise out of the system. Paper means nothing. Its the work or labor. The base part of all of this being of course food and shelter. Not paper.

Now an Indian might well ask what are all you illegal immigrants doing on our land. That don't bother some. It bothers me however. They never really claimed all of it so there is room of course. But the land they were on was well, hornswaggled. They may have not had Jesus. But now Jesus is bullshit. We now come to find out the Indians were actually living correctly. So where are we going from here?

FortWayne   befriend   ignore   Wed, 25 Apr 2012, 1:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 55

Don't know if this helps, but I've been hearing a lot of talk about student loan defaults on the radio lately. I think it is starting, I just don't know what those defaults trigger and who is going to be making/losing money.

ArtimusMaxtor   befriend   ignore   Wed, 25 Apr 2012, 1:38am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 56

Thats a shame to. It still bothers me they don't teach self-suffiency and prepare you for the "workplace" instead. If they taught self-suffiency. There would be no questions about an "economy". If someone got forecloused on it would be a so-what? day. A lot of people don't know how to grow a fucking tomato. It's not home-ec. If I taught or they taught you everything that was needed to sustain you and be independent from anyone or anything and live really, really well. Which they could very well do. Vs say, technology. Which they could still do. Your now starting to get the idea of who really has the sway in your educational system. Not teaching self sustainment Is not a nice thing to do to people. It's using them for their own purposes. Its something that people crave and wait for 65 years to get. Somethings way wrong with that. Build their fucking empire. Or build your own. People like that are well aware of what people will do for food. Like I say back in the day in Jerusalem, SOME migrants came looking. Then they had them invite their friends.

It's not a movement. I'm a realist. Not one of Jesus Christ's outer space adventurers. I know they have this country by the balls. See. Deal is be aware. Can you change it? No one has much success at it. Get with it an do it for yourself. Meanwhile all my erstwhile Hebrew kin. Don't get me wrong. I love my related. Also it's not all of them but a percentage of them that participate. See I'm not Hebrew but a Semite. Its a weakness like being a pimp. You get that and you get the idea. Thats what loansharking is. Now, theres not a thing "crawling" the streets or a business that dosen't have some kind of fucking loan on it. You could break that down of course. So will your car. Damn if anyone can afford a house without one. Not to mention the credit cards and everything else. They have loans aimed at you about 15 different ways and if they can't fuck you there. Well they have the fractional reserve. Your people look like idiot's running up and down the street. Trying to pay their loans off. Give them a break.

Ask me if I feel sorry for anyone with all this fucking thieving going on think twice. Your looking for sympathy in the wrong place.

thunderlips11   befriend   ignore   Wed, 25 Apr 2012, 2:13am PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 57

ArtimusMaxtor says

A lot of people don't know how to grow a fucking tomato.

Our system is designed to produce industrial era employees, not entrepreneurs or small producers. Right down to the 40ish minutes between shifting work stations when the bell rings.

clambo   befriend   ignore   Wed, 25 Apr 2012, 2:23am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 58

Does anyone see what the grand plan of the liberal assholes, Democrats, Obama and the clueless is?
Fannie and Freddie, College loans, Obama care govt. program option mean you are entirely subservient and dependent on the Federal government for your most important needs.
You will go to