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Worst polling agency in America

By iwog   Follow   Fri, 20 Apr 2012, 8:09am   2,246 views   17 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

So I'm listening to one of the radio psychopaths yesterday, (I think it was Savage) and I hear another interview with Scott Rasmussen. For those who don't know, Rasmussen Reports is the polling propaganda arm of the neoconservative right.

Rasmussen has a reputation for publishing wildly inaccurate polling data until a few weeks before the election, and then suddenly conforming to all the other polls so they can't be accused of bias. Sometimes they screw up, which is how they missed 2010 Hawaii by 40 points.

Anyway I decided to do a little research on just how pathetic their polling has become. It seems they have gotten much MUCH worse. The following Florida senate race illustrates this:

I could post example after example after example of how bad they are, however that's not interesting. What is interesting is the lengths right wing Republicans will go to create an alternate universe where reality simply doesn't matter anymore. Singing praises of Scott Rasmussen for the worst poll results in history is insane, yet ClusterFox and UnClear Channel do it endlessly and without the slightest attempt at humor.

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1. msilenus Follow Befriend (3) 8 threads 335 comments

   1   11:08am Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Rasmussen isn't completely worthless. The biggest outliers not withstanding, their precision is pretty good even when their accuracy is completely out of whack.* You can usually tell which way the wind is blowing by comparing Rasmussen polls to other Rasmussen polls. (Nothing else is apples to apples.) If there isn't some fishy discontinuity, any difference is probably reflecting a real trend. I'd venture to say that they're probably a bit better about that than some of the more accurate pollsters. Net-net: if you see Rasmussen is consistently polling a race X points below the others, you can just add X to their result to calibrate them, and probably do better than you could by looking at any other pollster independently. But it's still better to look at averages. * I'm sure some won't know what I mean by drawing a distinction between accuracy and precision. I therefore furnish this handy infographic:

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   2   1:50pm Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Cloud says So Pew Research reports that 80 percent of reporters vote Democrate. 80% of reporters also have college degrees, many with advanced degrees in language, history, and government. "Reality has a well known liberal bias." ~ Stephen Colbert You probably think this is just a funny bit by a comedian, but have you ever actually thought about what it means?

3. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   3   1:52pm Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   msilenus says Rasmussen isn't completely worthless. The biggest outliers not withstanding, their precision is pretty good even when their accuracy is completely out of whack. I understand your point, but it's just another way for right wing nuts to isolate themselves from a common reality. It's another symptom of our sick society and (again) there are no parallels on the left.

4. CL Follow Befriend (12) 140 threads 1,355 comments Emeryville, CA

   4   2:29pm Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I think Rasmussen allowed his name to be attached to polls that they don't "run" per se. I forget the difference, but maybe they allow the customer to write the questions or some crap. I didn't like them before, and he's all right-a-whirl now. A consistent outlier/out-liar.

5. msilenus Follow Befriend (3) 8 threads 335 comments

   5   5:52pm Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says It's another symptom of our sick society and (again) there are no parallels on the left. Pollster does seem to have gotten better. I tuned them out some time in the last couple of years when, some time after being bought by Huffpo, they started letting blatant DailyKos poll spam pollute their averages.

6. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   6   6:26pm Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Possibly, but compare the media access Rasmussen has to Pollster or any other supposedly biased agency. It's not unusual for Fox to create an entire segment around some Rasmussen nonsense.

7. msilenus Follow Befriend (3) 8 threads 335 comments

   7   6:56pm Fri 20 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   True enough. I'm just pointing out that the sort of intellectual sickness you're highlighting isn't unique to the right. It is seductive, and can strike anyone. It's right to point it out in the opposition, but dangerous to think it is particular to them.

8. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   8   1:03am Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   msilenus says True enough. I'm just pointing out that the sort of intellectual sickness you're highlighting isn't unique to the right. It is seductive, and can strike anyone. It's right to point it out in the opposition, but dangerous to think it is particular to them. There's no doubt leftist radicals exist and can wreck a nation. The best way to ensure this happens is to lie about normal people being leftist radicals until all the stigma is gone. Then when the economy is in tatters, there's no resistance. The free market end game is never anything written by Ayn Rand. The free market end game is a communist takeover.

9. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (16) 769 threads 7,714 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

   9   1:09am Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says You probably think this is just a funny bit by a comedian, but have you ever actually thought about what it means? Don't be silly. Cloud has never thought in his life.

10. Mick Russom Follow Befriend (2) 7 threads 530 comments Belmont, CA

    10   7:19am Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog (a one percenter landed gentry type) painting himself as a populist.

11. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,652 comments

    11   8:40am Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Mick Russom says iwog (a one percenter landed gentry type) painting himself as a populist. Nice that you spammed two threads with that BS.

12. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    12   9:58am Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Mick Russom says iwog (a one percenter landed gentry type) painting himself as a populist. Kind of like FDR huh. I'm an unapologetic capitalist who understands that I can make more money in business if people are paid a good living wage rather than starved into squalor and poverty. Henry Ford understood this. FDR understood this. Warren Buffett and Bill Gates understand this. The people who don't understand this, the people who think earning a 100% tax free income loaning money to the government or paying 15% for sitting on their ass collecting dividend checks, are digging their own graves.

13. Kevin Follow Befriend 40 threads 2,652 comments

    13   12:14pm Sat 21 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The guy who runs http://electoral-vote.com/ ran a thing a year or two ago showing that Rasmussen is the most consistently wrong polling organization out there. They actually build special versions of the maps that ignore rasmussen polls in addition to the complete versions.

14. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    14   8:04am Fri 27 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   MarsAttacks! says Translation: Rasmussen just does polls that Iwog doesn't like. Right Shrek......because that was my argument, that I don't like their polls. Not that they had ridiculous results and once missed a senate election by 40 points. Read much?

15. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    15   10:40am Fri 27 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The free market end game is never anything written by Ayn Rand. The free market end game is a communist takeover. Pretty much correct I think. There's actually a book out there called "Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists", although I have yet to read it. Capitalism works until the "winners" get monopoly status and/or start buying politicians to further cement their absolute power.

16. msilenus Follow Befriend (3) 8 threads 335 comments

    16   1:22pm Fri 27 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   MarsAttacks! says Translation: Rasmussen just does polls that Iwog doesn't like. Huh. You really are Shrek. That insufferable "Translation:" rhetorical tick gives you away. Sometimes I'm a little too credulous.

17. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    17   1:47pm Fri 27 Apr 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Shrek? Do you refer to this guy?