Long story short, I've been in the market over 8 years, sitting on the sidelines, being patient. Found a "dream" house, 3/2 1700sqft, nothing fancy, but i liked the layout and the yard and it had a sunroom. Comps would place it somewhere in the low $600k's. Asking was approx 20% above comps.
Mostly because it seemed like the perfect house and I'm so tired of house searching, especially with the artificially low inventory, we got an approved letter from our mortgage broker, waived our loan contingencies and offer FULL Asking the day after the first open house. We gave them 1 day to respond with clear instructions that we will not be resubmitting an offer as I don't want to play BS bidding wars/games.
The sellers agent couldn't even be bothered to even respond to the offer. Words cannot describe how much disdain I have for these worthless and unprofessional used car salesmen.
However if they're that confident it'll go over, then I'm 100% certain that this spring/summer is going to be another bubble.
Good luck to those buying!
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ih8alameda2 says
(sigh)
You're not gonna live a normal life here. If that's what you want, you need to move.
It's not the realtors. It's the market. Talk to the old people, listen to what they have to say. The Bay Area was always high and now because of Silicon Valley and all the moneyed foreigners (Chinese and otherwise) who want to live here, it's even higher. If you go down to the Beltway area around DC or up to Boston, it's the same way. It's not cheap in the better suburbs of Columbus anymore. Westerville is high as hell compared to twenty years ago, and that's because of the schools.
Patrick and I just had this discussion. If you're content to rent, fine...but understand what it's costing you. If you have a family or you're not dual income or the single income isn't $150K or more, you're gonna move. The guy who works for the vendor that maintains our tape library lives in Tracy. Most of the people who work for the software company that wanted to interview me several months ago also live in Tracy. The guy who owns Ahart Aviation lives in Tracy. The lady who was my project manager when I had a contract with a local retail chain lived in Tracy and commuted to Walnut Creek every day. She had a late model BMW 3-series with almost a hundred thousand miles on it.
This is the way it's going to be. Some people will have the income or have rich parents or a trust fund to front a down payment. Life isn't fair.
It's northern California. There's a lot of money around. We knew before coming up here that the place was Disneyland. Two and two are still four, no matter how many people tell you it's five. The laws of physics, economics and common sense haven't been repealed by some dork who's spent too much time in school and runs around in a turtleneck sweater. We are strong and he is weak. So far, those values have served us well.
As for the million dollar condos or dinky little houses in Palo Alto, forget it. If you don't work for Facebook, Google or Apple and you're not coming here with corruption money from China, it ain't happening.
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wthrfrk80 says
Not sure what your point is. I can afford to live here by choice. A lot of people can. I don't want to live on a small farm in North Carolina or in a cheap city in Texas. I've actually lived in both of those states already.
Pretending in your mind that everyone that buys in the Bay Area doesn't (a) have financial sense or (b) has mommy and daddy help is just an exercise in boosting your own self-esteem.
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DukeLaw says
We lived in Texas. They had absolute top drawer shopping, brand new gorgeous infrastructure, new schools, we lived in a gigantic house, everything was very affordable...
...and we were sick about half of the time from allergies. It's a common problem for relocated Yankees. If your immune system wasn't built living in that bowl with the mold and spores, you're gonna have a problem. We had one.
So, when the opportunity came to move here we accepted it. We made it work even if the politics don't always fit us but we're also not going to deviate from the value set we acquired so many years ago in a place that's far away. Two and two are still four. If someone asks you a question, you look them in the eye and you answer it. Don't buy things you can't afford. God made Adam for Eve, not for Steve...and there's not a damn thing anyone can do about it.
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Ross, CA
rootvg says
Hey pal, I used to believe in Santa too, but then I turned nine. Can you please keep your religious speculations out of the real estate forum? Thanks!
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rowemoore says
It's not religious, it's philosophical.
And no, I'm not gonna shut up and there's nothing you can do about it.
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robertoaribas says
Credit strength of the buyer is absolutely meaningless if it's a cash buyer (and even if not, the seller still receives the selling price in cash whether it's handed directly from the buyer or through the lending bank).
Specifics of the neighborhood and location are also freely knowable independent of the buyer and seller's personal details.
The only things that might influence the validity of an offer price are specifics not observable before inspection, and even those can only influence the ultimate price downward, since RE listings generally presume that inspection will be passed and that the home is livable.
For every other item in the world, an offer to sell at a price is an offer to sell at that price. The seller shouldn't even get an opportunity to wait and hope for a higher bidder.
And you go to an open house to buy that specific home. Homes are even more specific than toasters, since there are a limited number of identical units. (With single family homes, there's typically only one unique unit.)
If they want to run things auction-style with an unstated "reserve price", fine, do it that way. Just don't list a price that basically has no meaning.
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Inventory is usually the number of unsold homes at the end of a month divided by the same months sales rate. For example if there are 100 unsold homes at the end of april and during april 10 homes sold then there would be 10 months worth of inventory.
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robertoaribas's website
Patrick says
I'd say YOUR thinking is more called into question...
Phoenix mls active inventory this second: 13486
inventory under $200K 5766
Phoenix closed sales last 30 days: 9369
phoenix closes under $200K: 6726
LESS than 1 months inventory under 200K, 1.5 months inventory total.
six months is considered balanced, this is about an unbalanced as supply and demand can get. And here is a news flash: many of those 'active' homes aren't available anyways, they already have dozens of offers, the agent simply hasn't bothered to remove them from active status.
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robertoaribas says
A simple search for Phoenix on Redfin, no constraints, last 30 days of sales, the number is 2,897.
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San Francisco, CA
rootvg says
Go back to Texas.
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Danville, CA
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1sfrenter says
We bought in Danville. We like it. It fits.
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Danville, CA
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1sfrenter says
Look, it's none of my business but why don't you go someplace where you can actually afford to live? Lafayette is progressive and certainly not cheap but it's also not nuts like San Francisco. It's right on BART.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
David9 says
Well, hey obviously redfin will have more accurate data then the actual mls that agents use to buy and sell homes...
my agency opts out of redfin and zillow, and I detest it when buyers call saying "I found a home on redfin or zillow" invariably, that home sold 3 months ago, but those stupid sites have it as active...
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Ross, CA
rootvg says
I'm just saying I find your philosophy offensive and definitely not appropriate for the real estate forum.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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rowemoore says
I would avoid this line of discussion with him. He has some good points with respect to housing and affordability in the Bay Area from time to time, although it isn't necessarily what some want to hear. However, he thrives on getting under the skin of folks with a sensitivity to political correctness. It's best to just ignore those parts of his posts that you disagree with (his whole shtick is that "progressives" are too narrow minded to tolerate a different POV and will wage war on him for not buying "their agenda").
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I grew up here. I've lived here for more than 30 yrs. It definitely has not always been retarded unaffordable. My dad was a professor and mom a stay at home. We bought a house and lived a middle, maybe even upper middle class lifestyle in a city very similar to Danville.
Both my wife and I have advanced graduate degrees and make a decent living, having money and wanting a normal life are two separate things. We in fact could not afford now the house I grew up in. Retarded.
rootvg says
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Just for reference, prices in Cupertino have shot up appreciably.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10296-Plum-Tree-Ln-Cupertino-CA-95014/19619579_zpid/
Listed for $1,248,800, sold for $1,452,000, new ATH, higher than peak achieved in 2007. Zestimate $1,256,900.
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San Jose, CA
Here is competition for domestic cash buyers. Chinese.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-04-03/us-homes-lure-chinese-buyers/53977638/1?AID=4992781&PID=4166869&SID=1ti0x2cqzonm1
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REpro says
Sounds like the China RE bubble has made it's way across the Pacific.
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San Jose, CA
wthrfrk80 says
Economic prosperity and high RE prices in Japan brought Japanese investors to US in previous US RE bust. So motivation was similar. That exodus however, did not have happy ending.
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REpro says
Chinese and Japanese have major cultural differences.
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hanera says
Interesting data point. Not many same home sales from the 2000's in the last month in Cupertino. I looked through the redfin data and here was the only one actually from 2007:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/1240-Bubb-Rd-95014/home/1119209
Just barely under 2007....
I don't know why anybody would want Cupertino Schools. I think a lot of folks are ignorant about the differences between being a revenue limit district vs basic aid district. Cupertino is underfunded with only their parcel tax helping to salvage a bad situation.
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Patrick says
Dept of numbers indicates over 15K houses for sale in Phoenix, but still, I dont find an inventory number that is down -43% on a year over year basis "huge".
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
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I can understand Cupertino, but Phoenix, no way.
Do you know how hot last summer was?
110 degrees for 60+ days.
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Also, FWIW, it looks like Phoenix once had over 48K houses in inventory - now that was a "huge" number.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
But 15K now...Down over 67% from the bubble peak of 48K is still "huge"???
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http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/story/2012-04-03/us-homes-lure-chinese-buyers/53977638/1?AID=4992781&PID=4166869&SID=1ti0x2cqzonm1
Right there it is, in black and white. We're seeing it in Danville now.
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fizbin says
Then you must not work in a tech department in S.V.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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B.A.C.A.H. says
LOL
Sad but true. I have, on a couple of occasions now, heard some of my Indian coworkers bragging about how they bought in Cupertino and the whole discussion centers on the schools and which Ivy League they want their 4th graders to go to. My god, it should be a crime to rob a child of their childhood like that. But hey, gotta chase that money & "prestige!" Then again, that's better than the white parents that name their kids things like Braden, let them dress androgynously and pay $40k/yr to study Creative Writing.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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rootvg says
Although I think that a lot of this "immigrants are swarming here" stuff is just a scare tactic, I do get a little concerned about it. I don't give a damn what color my neighbors are, but I do worry about massive numbers of wealthy Chinese people bringing their nasty culture over here. Not Chinese culture, but WEALTHY Chinese culture. There is only one way to get rich over there, and it isn't pretty. Those are also the people that can afford to move here, and the thought of them moving here en masse is a bit disturbing. People here rightfully complain about our political & business leaders behaving immorally, but the people that strike it rich over there are on a whole different level. Again though, I don't think that enough of them are coming here to really "ruin" us or anything. It seems more like NAr scare tactics & a talking point.
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50% Chinese want to come to US.
That is 500 million people.
US only has 300 million people.
I expect US house price and RENT to triple.
Can you afford 300% rent increase?
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Half Moon Bay, CA
You really think US immigration policy will allow half a billion chinese people to immigrate to the US?
Rent will rise with inflation. Inflation is not going to rise 300%.
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Danville, CA
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The realtor for the people who sold our house to us said if there's a deal where the other side is Chinese, she'll simply not get involved. They can't be trusted. When they agree to something, it's meaningless. They'll wait until the last minute and attempt to change the deal. When you object, they throw some politically correct bullshit in your face and call you a racist.
Mind fog, shades of gray, everything's a puzzle...to hell with them. There's enough other stuff to go around.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
Sure, I do, but I don't see what that has to do with it. Cupertino schools are quite underfunded. Go to the national center for educational statistics and look up the Cupertino Union district. In 2008-09 (the most recent year on file), the district had revenues of $8762/student.
Now look up Las Lomitas (the Atherton district): they received $16,192 per student, and LL Elementary, while a nice district is not at the top of the heap. If you want small class size all the way through school, a dedicated music program, a math specialist at lower grade levels, IT specialists, etc, you'll have to go to a better district than Cupertino. Cupertino does great with the the resources that it has but that's also a function of a highly pressured student population.....
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rowemoore says
I'm here and I'm staying here and I'm not going to change and that's it.
Everything I've said is true. I see it on a daily basis.
It's not the United States of San Francisco!
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Ross, CA
rootvg says
I get what you are saying: "We're here! We're queer! Get used to it."
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robertoaribas says
From my understanding majority of listings don't make it to redfin/trulia.
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Patrick says
Because toasters, cars and shares are exact copies sold by millions. Each house seller has one, unique and individual house to sell. Even if mls listing was a promise to sell at the list price, how would you handle more than one buyer for the same property? And, even if a seller had only one offer at full price, they might still not like contingencies.
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46 male
Menlo Park, CA
You say their houses are unique. Really?
rowemoore says
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Corning, NY
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That picture looks like a large apartment complex, but with better heat transfer between the inside and outside air. More surface area.
Good for the utility companies. Cha ching!
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Advertising a home is not an offer for a very simple legal reasons:
Statute of frauds. Land (any amount)and goods over a certain amount $500 must be in writing with consideration.
There is no element of an offer, it doesn't address who it is offered to, terms beyond price and timing. In a nutshell, it has none of the element of a legal binding offer. With a toaster, there is an implied offer that anyone can buy if it is available, and it is settled immediately. With land, nothing can be implied.
Hope that ends this useless discussion.