WatchLong story short, I've been in the market over 8 years, sitting on the sidelines, being patient. Found a "dream" house, 3/2 1700sqft, nothing fancy, but i liked the layout and the yard and it had a sunroom. Comps would place it somewhere in the low $600k's. Asking was approx 20% above comps.
Mostly because it seemed like the perfect house and I'm so tired of house searching, especially with the artificially low inventory, we got an approved letter from our mortgage broker, waived our loan contingencies and offer FULL Asking the day after the first open house. We gave them 1 day to respond with clear instructions that we will not be resubmitting an offer as I don't want to play BS bidding wars/games.
The sellers agent couldn't even be bothered to even respond to the offer. Words cannot describe how much disdain I have for these worthless and unprofessional used car salesmen.
However if they're that confident it'll go over, then I'm 100% certain that this spring/summer is going to be another bubble.
Good luck to those buying!
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Daytona says
Thank your for you eloquent and simple explanation.
But I wouldn't count on it ending the silly discussion. The discussion seems to be propagated by those who have a lot of ego invested in the belief that they are smarter (and probably better looking) than those stupid, gullible idiots who bid on a house not because they use a set of reasonable assumptions that differ from theirs (eg house prices and rents will rise with inflation and that inflation may even accelerate over the next 20 years).
I did get a laugh out of "their" proposal that all bids at the list price must be accepted. Of course the implication of this would be that instantly all list prices would jump by 20% over any kind of anticipated market price to guarantee that the owner didn't get forced into leaving a big pile of cash on the table.....
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Everyone is holding out thinking the Facebook IPO will bring in a bunch of high bidders. When it doesn't, the area will suffer another crash.
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rootvg says
Hmmm, 2+2=4 but in your world did dinosaurs co-exist with humans? Seriously, I'd like to know.
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DukeLaw says
I lived in Dallas for almost a decade and people there (regardless of socioeconomic standing) do not act this way. We lived in Ohio for thirty years and people there (again, socioeconomic status notwithstanding) don't act like this. I don't give a damn how many letters are behind your name or what you paid for your house or how intelligent someone says you are because you went to a certain school.
There's too much money here in the wrong hands. That's why the residential property market is the way it is. That's why there's a high concentration of influence among people who anywhere else would be selling clothes or serving food.
I've said it a million times and I'll say it again. There are 55 Electoral votes here and that's a lot, the largest number of all the states. But guess what else? It ain't the United States of San Francisco. It's not even the United States of California...and that means you and others like you don't get to redefine reality or spit in the face of God. You just DON'T.
We like living here. We like the climate, love the food and wine (was never so much into that but give me time) and the higher standard of living but NONE of that gives anyone the right to redefine reality or spit in the face of God!
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rootvg says
I asked a simple question. Give me a yes or no answer. Do you believe that dinosaurs co-existed with human beings?
PS I'm not spitting in the face of God. In fact, I took divinity classes at Duke (so you shouldn't stereotype either).
And you seem to be quite firm that your "reality" is the only one (so who really is trying to impose their values on others??)
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DukeLaw says
Does it really matter? At the end of the day, his view will still be intolerant and and that of a bigot.
Typically folks of this ilk are hypocrites, too. For example, they will make a huge deal out of homosexuality but be entirely accepting of their divorced friends or may even be divorced themselves even though the gospel view rejecting divorce for any reason accept infidelity of the spouse is clear cut. And once divorced, you don't get to remarry! Need a constitutional amendment for that. Oh and then what of those who get divorced and later remarry after an intervening marriage. According to Deuteronomy that would be "detestable in the eyes of the lord". Need a constitutional amendment for that one, too.
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rootvg, would you care if lesbians moved in next door or is it just gay men you have a problem with?
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DukeLaw says
Are you suggesting different "realities" for different people?
I thought we were all living in the same universe. But then again, what do I know.
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Larkspur, CA
Hey rootvg:
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1sfrenter says
Recent study says buddy !
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/09/homophobia-homosexuality-gay_n_1412846.html
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I just don't understand why people caught in bestiality haven't formed their own groups yet. They should coin the term "bestaphobia." They'd get pretty far with it.
After all, if you think bestiality is unnatural, you "obviously" are a victim of bad parenting or have deeply-repressed sexual desires for animals.
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wthrfrk80 says
No, you are not a victim of bad parenting because you think bestiality is unnatural, rather you "obviously" are a victim of bad parenting because you are not able to distinguish the difference between the rape of an innocent animal by a human being and a loving consensual relationship between two adults (who happen to be of the same gender).
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fizbin says
So you're saying if somehow an animal could "consent", you wouldn't have a problem with bestiality?
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Tarzana, CA
This is ridiculus.
I think anyone this filled with hate regardless of whether it is against gays, blacks, jews, latinos, illegal immigrants is 'obviously' mentally ill or possessed by evil spirits.
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wthrfrk80 says
Way to find the strawman question in that statement.....
As for rootvg's "reality", that's why I put in parentheses. You can put up a museum to creationism and pretend it's real. I don't have to accept it.
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wthrfrk80 says
You know what? If you really want to fuck Mr. Ed (and he agrees with it in his own voice), then I actually have no problem with it, but let's just remind ourselves that you're the one that having found a talking animal, the most important thing on your mind is whether you can fuck it or not.
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Danville, CA
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fizbin says
Oooooooooh, Wilbur...
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Boulder Creek, CA
David9 says
Well, or just stupid.
I lump religious fanatics (true believers) with bigots; it's most certainly their right to think that way but it doesn't change the fact that they're probably just stupid.
I mean really? Who cares if two guys (or girls) want to be with each other, whatever makes them happy; as long as they aren't hurting other people. Jesus, the son of a god that died for a sins? Really? That's believable? It's amazing that people even still think this way, but some areas of the country (and the world for that matter) just progress a little slower than the rest of us.
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Larkspur, CA
required watching by some here:
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Who is filled with hate? I don't understand.
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CrazyMan says
marx wrote "it(religion) is the opium of the people" in 1843. still just as true today 169 years later. we have a long ways to go.
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wthrfrk80 says
That's the first thing these people want to have you learn when you move here. Anyone who doesn't agree with the politically correct social agenda or who has standards is a hater. Anyone who wakes up on Sunday morning and goes to Mass is a hater. Anyone who voted for Prop 8 in California is a hater.
I don't buy it. I never did and I never will. If they want to be chronic rebels, that's fine. It's stupid and childish and counter productive but it's their business...until they make it MY business or until they start corrupting our institutions (which they're dying to do, that's part of the whole rebellion thing) or system of public education.
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I spoke with a realtor in a fortress today, and she said the sellers are starting to take notice. She expects (perhaps hopes) the inventory to increase dramatically this summer/fall.
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rootvg says
Is corrupting the system of public education the part where you want to teach the Bible in school? Again, I still don't have your answer on dinosaurs co-existing with humans. I'd just like to know where you're coming from (since you seem so free to express views on everything else).
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People, it's EXTREMELY simple. There is only one question you need to ask yourself to answer the "should I buy now" question. Here it is:
Do you believe that the recession is over and the economy will grow from here?
If you answer yes, then you should buy a house as employment and wages will grow from here and house prices will stabilize and rise.
If you answer no, if you think the recession is not over and that the economy could falter from here then you should NOT buy a house. As someone up-thread mentioned, banks are being more picky today so potential borrowers must have real income in order to get a loan. If employment and wages drop from here then house prices WILL fall as people won't have the money to buy them.
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grywlfbg says
I don't think it is quite that cut and dried, but it sounds logical.
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bmwman91's website
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grywlfbg says
Great summary. In the end, this is really what it all comes down to. There is a lot of information out there, and it can be twisted many ways to meet someone's preferred perception. It is up to individuals to make the call for themselves. As with all things, you might be right, and you might be wrong!
I think that it is clear that the NAr thinks that the economy is going to weaken. They already lobbied to keep 3.5% down FHA loan limit at $730k for much of the Bay Area. At present, they are working to lower the down payment requirements for the other conforming loan products out there. If they thought that people were going to be MORE able to qualify for loans, they wouldn't be pushing for lower standards, yet again.
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bmwman91 says
They want transactions. They don't care too much about anything else.* That is what is behind there lobbying.
*Of course, all of us who own property hope it goes up in value and the NAR is filled with home owners/real estate investors.
BTW, the recession is over and has been for quite some time. The question greywolf should have asked is "do you think the economy will continue to improve or will we have another recession?".
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rowemoore says
Interesting. I have no respect for law as it is. Simply for this reason alone. It has nothing behind it except for for the people by the people. How do you codify that into law. A thug with a gun? You can't stop people from having sex. I say wipe ever single "law" off the books that has to do with sexual behavior. You can't enforce it. It makes no sense to have them. The guy there isn't the subject. It's his parents. He probably dosen't like being the subject of everyones attention. Whats he going to do after all.
Sodom. The bible story is so whole cloth you have no idea. The Hebrews had their own rules. I guess. That story was re-written. The original story had to do with the people of the Steppes not the plains. Stealing everything they should not. Abraham sent his friend to see about it. Then the earthquake happened. People died in high numbers. There was no angel. No gays. Just some hole in the wall types saying pal give us everything you got.
Can you imagine gays coming to your door and wanting to rape someone? Give me a GD break. I have been to the second largest theologial library in the world (so they say). The real story or the original is much different than the one they put together that didn't fit with their stealing and pacifism.
The bible makes gays a target with some very well put stories that were removed replacing them as the transgressors or culprits. There were a few not a thousand quotes. But the other whole cloth writtings you might as add them back into all of them. Nothing proves God now more than someones sex life after all the bullshit. That book the original could care less about outsiders and deals with the Hebrews and not much else.
You can try to change someones sexual habits, anyones not just gays. Your never going to do it. That proven psychology. You would have to "erase" someone. Thats about the only way. Why those findings on psycological studies on sexual habits the permanence of ones sexual behavior aren't widely published. I don't understand. Then again I do it fuels christianty like a locomotive. Really its a kind of racism. Like hating blacks or the current popular theme hating muslims. You can always find those extra circular themes written into Christianty at any given point in time. Thus proving this: A man even in Christianty is a man and very capable of preditory behavior.
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DukeLaw says
I'm not here to talk about dinosaurs. You're not going to lead me along some path and mind fog me or get me to say something stupid or that doesn't make sense. You'll have to do better than that.
I told you, I've been doing this for a very long time.
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rowemoore says
It'll grow after the next recession, which is right around the corner. We're gonna have a double dip, just as the British are having right now.
It's the early eighties all over again, just as I've been predicting for two years.
I understand Doug Schoen and Pat Caddell said their party is going to be decades cleaning up its image after the apparent crash and burn of this administration. I thought people here said Obama was getting a second term?
(snicker)
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1sfrenter says
I don't have a problem with either scenario on its face but I don't like it when homosexuals want to raise children on the premise that homosexual "marriage" is normal when anyone with any common sense or semblance of a traditional value set knows it isn't.
Did you know the only reason homosexuality was no longer categorized as deviant in DSM III was because of threats of multiple lawsuits against the APA? It had nothing to do with science. It was all about politics and money and creeping political correctness, even in 1973.
Even with the passage of Prop 8 in California (which fifty percent of Evangelical blacks in LA County supported, that's why it passed), the lefties simply found a queer judge in San Francisco who was near retirement. This is how these people operate. There is no rule of law. It's a mob and there are certain ways to deal with a mob. We haven't gotten to that point yet. You'd better hope that we don't.
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rowemoore says
It's already happening. I saw many more for sale signs coming home this evening than I saw at the same time last week.
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Helloeeze says
Fortunately, rootvg is outnumbered in the US.
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Getting a little back on track with the original post. Take a look at 144 Justin circle alameda 94502 as an example. On market for 6 months, sells at $460/sqft, nothing fancy/updated at all.
$460 a sqft is easily about 20% over comps. I know it's one example but I sure get the feeling of people screaming, buy now or it's too late!!!!!
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Boulder Creek, CA
Which means it's a bad time to buy. Looks like another year to wait and see.
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rootvg says
Funny thing happens when people run out of money. Shit happens. You can only live off your savings for so long. Patience is the game for buyers and all realtors know it. They won't admit it, but they sure as hell know it.
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Helloeeze says
My theory is, California has been so wealthy for so long that people here simply assume they're entitled to the bounty of this place. It's the same way in France and their political culture is very similar to California's.
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rootvg says
so basically, this realtor doesn't like being called racist because she won't deal with Chinese people? Does this seem funny to anyone else?
How can a realtor who refuses to deal with Chinese people be successful in the Bay Area? That's a lot of the market.
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SiO2 says
I don't think she gives a shit what you call her. She's been in the business for so long that I don't think it would affect her either way.