Who is to blame ? Obama ? His Marketing team ? Or the gullable people that saw him as something other than just another tap dancing politician ?


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By TMAC54 Follow Fri, 27 Apr 2012, 7:57am 5,327 views 66 comments
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iwog says
God Bless America.
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iwog says
I am not real checked out in this subject, as you know, but hasn't the value of the USD went down over the last 10 years while interest rates have also when down?
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Devaluation of the currency is not exactly the same as the value against other currencies decreasing. (that is, that isn't the definition)
That is, If it's devalued, it goes down against other currencies, but if it goes down against other currencies, it doesn't have to be because it's devalued.
In fact, looking at just the variable of interest rates (alone), decreasing interest rates, with other countries not decreasing their interest rates (as much), should cause our currency to go down against theirs. (holding all other variables constant).
These things are complicated, and sometimes paradoxical.
It's like with real estate. Inflation should cause RE prices to go up. But sometimes in the short run, inflation causes interest rates to go up (the cost of money), resulting in lower RE prices (at least for a while - since people look at their monthly financing cost).
The only thing that's always true, is that it sure is good to have A LOT of capital and to be able to take advantage of all the opportunities that the changes bring.
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david1 says
That's why GDP is not a very good measure of wealth or prosperity. In your example above where did 50% of the money distributed in social programs but not spent go to and why did cutting government spending by 1T only reduce taxes by .5T another 50% loss? Are you saying it costs 50% of taxes to collect them and another 50% to distribute them?
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Bap33 says
No, interest rates are a more precise measure of the value of the dollar than things like the CPI and the dollar index. Interest rates represent the market's opinion on future dollar devaluation by people who have the most money.
For all the talk of dollar devaluation, which I was a part of several years before I figured out what was happening, the US dollar has never been stronger while inflation is nearly nonexistant. Likewise interest rates have never been lower.
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TMAC54 says
Hammer Time.
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bob2356 says
Perhaps I wasn't clear. All of the $1T in social program spending goes into the economy. Additionally, that same $1T is then spent AGAIN, all or in some part, due to the velocity of money. That is, after the government pays Medical bill for the Medicare recipient, that money goes to doctors, nurses, medical shareholders, etc. and is then spent again. So you get more than $1 in GDP for every dollar of government spending.
bob2356 says
They are totally unrelated. a decrease in tax recepits is part of the Ryan plan to cut taxes. I estimated this at 20% of 2011 total receipts. $.46T.
You might be figuring out that deficit spending, in fact, does increase GDP.
bob2356 says
Not what I am saying at all. I hope I was more clear this time around.
In short, I am saying that for the economy as a whole, it would be better if there was less saving and more spending. As shown, business investment is by far the smallest component of GDP (and the economy), therefore lowering taxes to allow more business investment is not as effective at growing the economy as increased demand is.
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david1 says
So we should just have 100% taxes and endless prosperity will be the result.
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wthrfrk80 says
Funny. Of course not, due to deadweight loss. But we should tax and spend at the tax revenue maximizing rate. The Laffer curve exists and is correct. At 100% flat tax rates, revenue is not as high as it is at some lower point. Current tax structure is such that we are below the rate of maximum revenue. Further raising beyond that point reduces revenue.
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david1 says
Bueller...Bueller...Bueller...
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And the biggest drag on the economy is...GOVERNMENT.
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Honest Abe says
How is cutting government going to get money to consumers? Don't worry, I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for you to answer this.
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iwog says
Look at the USD during the period 2000-2012. The Euro used to be $0.80, now it's $1.30. The Canadian Dollar used to be USD $0.70, now it's over USD $1.00. Oil used to be less than $10/bbl, now it's over $100/bbl. The USD has devalued dramatically during the period, yet interest rates have fallen.
Interest rates reflect the supply and demand for credit. For much of the period, Asian savers bought U.S. debt, keeping American interest rates low. Now, the Fed lends $ to banks at zero and buys U.S. debt (both treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in "Operation Twist.") The currency continues to devalue, but interest rates remain low.
The Fed decided that deflation was bad, so it set a policy of promoting inflation, i.e. devaluation. It is also possible to have competitive devaluation, i.e. if countries try simultaneously to devalue, which leads to inflation without necessarily changing exchange rates.
Official CPI is understated due to the drop in housing prices and the adjustments, e.g. hedonistic adjustment that says a new TV is worth more than an old one because the new one has more scan lines. (Nevermind that if your favorite show gets cancelled, the new TV may be worth less; these adjustments ratchet only one way.) Even with those adjustments, CPI is at its highest level ever:
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt
The numbers show the USD has never been weaker in terms of consumer purchasing power than it is right now.
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curious2 says
The USD has no value other than what it can buy. It doesn't matter what the dollar index says or how the dollar compares to other currencies. Neither can you index the dollar's value to oil. (index it to natural gas and see what you get then)
We are not in a period of dollar devaluation, in fact inflation is very very low by all historic measurements.
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iwog says
It buys 30% less than a decade ago, and 97% less than a century ago. By any historical measure, that's devaluation.
Compare to the period 1865-1939. For a lifetime, the USD held its value: periods of inflation and deflation offset each other.
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curious2 says
I never said otherwise. I said the rate of devaluation (inflation) has been dropping since 1980. The trend both before 1980 and after 1980 is tracked rather well by interest rates.
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Honest Abe says
Actually pretty sure that's not true. The biggest drag on the economy is the lack of purchasing power in the middle class.
Almost all the increase in income for the last 20 years as gone to the top 1%, and they can invest as much as they want with that income -- it won't do any good without middle class customers to buy the stuff they're trying to sell.
We had far higher rates of growth when taxes on the 1% were much higher. In fact, growth rates seem pretty much proportional to the tax rates on the 1%. Just go back and compare US growth rates to tax rates on the 1%.
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iwog says
Although I would really like to think we are in agreement, I don't see how to reconcile that statement with your comment copied below:
iwog says
Another typo perhaps?
iwog says
That statement runs contrary to observable history. ObamaCare is a re-branded and more expensive version of Hillary's Plan, which Democrats voted against in 2008. When Obama opposed Hillary's Plan (and Krugman hated him for it), people voted for Obama. When Obama spun around and started campaigning for Hillary's Plan (now called ObamaCare), people continued to oppose it (and began opposing him):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/30/healthplan_n_725503.html
Blaming Murdoch or Harry & Louise doesn't explain what happened in 2008. People always opposed that plan, no matter what it's called.
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wthrfrk80 says
I'm not sure I get this one.
Let me throw something out at you, see what you think. The reason Republicans use deficit spending to score political points but nothing else (why the dont decrease spending) is because deficit spending actually serves as asset protection for the capitalists. It keeps demand for their capital high...
Per capita income has increased 35% in real terms since 1980; however all of this gain was realized in the top 20%, income per capita in the bottom half of this country actually fell.
With the increase in income centralized only at the top, the top is essentially running out of places to invest. There is too much saving, and the demand for investment return has increased. This is why interest rates are low; there is so much capital seeking return with little demand for it. The Government creates the demand for the capital by deficit spending. If government didn't deficit spend, there would be less demand for capital and less debt. Returns on debt would be even less and capital would seek higher returns elsewhere, cause price inflation due to competition in all areas in which capital chased return.
This concentration seeking return is also the reason for the run up in gold prices, oil prices, etc. The top has accumulated so much capital it has more appetite for risk. 30 years ago, there were fewer speculators with large appetites for risk. What increases appetite for risk? Security in other areas. Think about it - if you have a nice nest egg socked away for retirement, you are more prone to take a small risk that really wouldn't affect your lifestyle than you would be otherwise.
You want oil prices to go down? Raise taxes on capital or increase demand for capital in other areas with less inherent risk. Increasing the demand for capital will increase the return, making it more attractive to capital.
If Government raised taxes to the revenue maximizing point, the supply of capital would be lower due to the government confiscating more of it. This would decrease speculation in commodities, lowering oil, gold, etc. On its own, it would also decrease the supply of debt capital, which would increase interest rates. However, the offset to this would be the decreased demand for debt capital since government revenues would be higher, causing less need to borrow. My suspicion is falling prices in higher risk classes of investment vehicles would occur first, with falling prices in debt capital being last due to the decreased perception of default risk.
Its counter intuitive to what one may think, but really to get the economy going we need to reverse the concentration of capital at the top, which would decrease capital hoarding and yield chasing, decreasing commodity price inflation driven by speculation. Less hoarding means more capital flowing through the economy, increasing demand for labor and increasing wages. China's economy is seeing this very thing - there is so much demand for Chinese labor that it becomes less "cheap" by the day. It is no secret that this is the driving force behind China's growing economy - the increase of capital flowing through the economy. If that capital was hoarded instead, their economy would realize much less growth.
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david1 says
The reference to Ferris Bueller is because the Laffer curve is voo doo economics, repeatedly disproved. Great movie, btw, and I thought the reference was quite funny.
To borrow a quote from Ross Perot, if you were to confiscate the entire net worth of the Forbes 400, it would not be enough to pay the interest on the national debt for one year. Ascribing low interest rates to the 1% looking to invest and bidding down rates ignores the role of the Fed buying treasuries and mortgage backed securities, the bailout, and previously the Chinese. The runup in commodities prices reflects several factors, including devaluation of the currency and fears of further devaluation, and to some extent another bubble in this era of froth (many bubbles).
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curious2 says
I'm sure that's the way you remember it, but you're dead wrong. As always, I'll prove it instead of just saying it:
Archives of the Republican/Newscorp war against health care reform from the first half of 2009:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/03/07/health-care-reform-effort-draws-opposition/
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/11/lobbyists-spend-millions-fighting-obama-universal-health-care-plan/
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2009/06/25/obama-health-care-poison-pill/
What's interesting is the number of anti-Obamacare articles that have been pulled from the Fox archives. Here's an interesting one that has been deleted:
The Mad Scientist at the White House - FoxNews.com
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2009/07/21/john-holdren-reason-fear-obamacare/
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iwog says
I disagree. I see it as way too complicated for a single brief explanation. Low interest rates at one time might mean the fed is trying to goose the economy. At another time, such as now, many factors, including a lot of capital that isn't being put to work in other ways is creating demand for interest bearing securities. Also we even have our own government buying up a lot of bonds.
What interest rates mean now, is somewhat different than what they meant say in the 70s. Monetary policy has changed. Our financial interrelationships with Russia, China, Europe and Japan have all changed a lot since then. The financial markets, and so called "bond vigilantes" aren't what they used to be.
Only because of the deflationary pressures that exist now, and the high unemployment, can interest rates stay so low, even while inflation starts to kick in a little. This period will probably eventually be viewed as some sort of global depression. Whether it was intentionally engineered, I have no idea. But things are way different than we have ever seen.
People with capital invest in assets that do well with inflation but also and in interest bearing securities, that don't. They diversify all the time.
I get your point, and there's some truth to it. But on the other hand the
extremes point in the opposite direction. When interest rates were the highest, that's when inflation finally stopped(or slowed down). And believe me, a lot of smart money wanted to buy bonds then, to hold to maturity. In the past, when rates were at their low it was starting the long inflation cycle again.
I do not believe that the people buying 10year or 30 year bonds at current prices necessarily think they are a good buy to hold to maturity. These days it's a temporary to medium term place to park money. It's like there are not enough alternatives.
It's as if the amount of money looking to be invested safely somewhere greatly exceeds the amount of money that the big creditors want to borrow now. Seems to me that this is at least somewhat independnet of perception of the value of the dollar.
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Iwog - the second graph proves the point. As you can see, the red (Oppose) line increased as Congress and Obama began substituting various versions of Hillary's Plan, which voters had rejected, instead of what Obama campaigned on. Even the increase in opposition vastly exceeds the viewership of Fox news. Your first graph is from the quasi-nonprofit Kaiser HMO Hydra, so if you're going to copy them you should disclose their connection to the HMO business. You call Rasmussen partisan and unreliable, but on this particular subject Kaiser is demonstrably partisan and unreliable. Lastly, rather than copying graphs without permission and potentially creating DMCA headaches and liabilities for Patrick.net, you should simply link to them.
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curious2 says
Bullshit. "Hillary's plan" (actually Newt's plan) was the model from the beginning. ALL the changes from when the bill was introduced until final passage in 2010 were either concessions to Republicans or watering down of original provisions to reassure people they would not lose their private plan.
Regardless of how many idiots accept unfiltered Newscorp propaganda, Fox sets the news agenda for the entire country. When they decide to run the birther story, all other media picks it up. When they decide to bitch about Reverend Wright or Ayers or Acorn, all media parrots the story.
The way it works is that Fox doesn't care if you're for death panels or against death panels. As long as the discussion IS ABOUT death panels it will influence the opinion of people too lazy to find out if the entire issue is a lie to begin with.
The compilation graph shows what happened. Contrary to your original statement, the entire country was heavily in favor of health care reform in early 2009. Fox declared war against health care reform, and public opinion responded. That's the truth.
What you posted is a fiction.
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marcus says
Also, to the extent this is true it's that interest rates are looking forward (expectations based), where as cpi looks back, and the dollar index closer to right now, but it also reflects value relative to other currencies, more than interest rates do and much more than CPI does.
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curious2 says
You borrowed a lie. The entire net worth of the Forbes 400 is $1.5 trillion:
http://www.forbes.com/global/2011/1107/opinions-readers-say-forbes-400-kaput-burma.html
The interest on the national debt does not exceed half a trillion:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm
Assuming Ross Perot was correct when he made the statement, it shows just how absurd wealth disparity is getting. Although the national debt is growing out of control, the wealth of the richest people in the world is growing much faster.
curious2 says
Which conclusion do you think I drew from that graph? How exactly do you take issue with that conclusion? It's becoming clear that you favor arguments over trivia and spelling above substance. As for disclosing the source of the data, I dare say everyone reading this post already knows Kaiser is in the HMO business.
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iwog says
Yes, and Scott, he is dark, evil, and whoever is not him will be good, Glinda, the good witch of the North.
The black and white politics of the USA is hilarious. They are all bad at this point, and because of this, we are riding into a phase of perpetual decline. Even Carlin pointed this out like 10+ years ago.
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iwog says
Who are these competent people?
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iwog says
More like people started to understand the costs of providing it. I think there should be a safety net, but the way things are today, its just another log on the bonfire of backbreaking unfunded liabilities. Welcome to inflation Ponzi time 2.0
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iwog says
No. Interest rates are purely made up at this point. They make that number whatever it needs to be to fudge the status quo. The problem with curves though is the area under said curve. You can tweak the function but the principle owed keeps accruing.
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iwog says
If government would stop pouring money into banks and into wall st, these rats would actually have to pay some interest for savings. And maybe, just maybe, with an uptick in rates the prices of houses would drop to somewhat affordable levels - in principle terms, not in monthly terms, and maybe there would be a bit of a wealth effect from those who have scrimped and saved could spend a bit because money was no longer toilet paper and things were affordable, you know, like gas, food, rent, tuition. But no, continue to pump in monopoly money. Its really made the middle class jump for joy in the last 10+ years its been going on.
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iwog says
The ACA has done nothing - the affordability of care is actually worse. Patrick has noticed this. But you, the landed gentry with all your properties and rentier income, you dont worry about what the little people put up with. You have a fanatical attachment to California's ruling party which is best serving your interests.
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iwog says
Have you noticed this acceleration accelerated under your big brother Obama's tenure? The man with an iron fist and a velvet glove brings it in for the one-percenters.
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curious2 says
I knew the movie, knew the quote, just didn't, and still don't, see how the reference makes any sense.
Who told you the Laffer curve is voodoo, repeatedly disproven? I think you need to check your sources.
http://jparnell.com/blog/?p=229
"Few economists question the basic premise of the curve. What some debate is the shape of the curve and our current position on it. Those who say they are “for the curve” believe we are at a point where increasing the tax rate will not significantly increase tax revenue."
http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?Entry=7083
"The curve itself is pretty simple, and there's hardly an economist in the world that doesn't believe that the Laffer Curve, or something quite like it, doesn't exist."
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Mick Russom says
How did he do this again?
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Mick Russom says
That is idiotic. When home prices crashed from in 2008, did you notice a wealth effect?? If so, you were looking at something different than me. I noticed the largest downturn since the Great Depression.
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david1 says
Amen. I'm not exactly at the top, but like everyone else I'm running out of places to invest. See: http://www.patrick.net/forum/?p=1211957
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iwog says
God Bless America.
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david1 says
Wasn't it the first George Bush (dubya's dad)?
I think Ben Stein even said so in Ferris Bueller's economics class: "he called it 'something-do economics'...does anyone know?....no?...He called it 'voodoo economics'...voodoo economics..."
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wthrfrk80 says
Thats right. Now i get the reference.