WatchWow, it sure looks like WSJ reporters are getting paid by the NAR to run ads in place of stories. For example:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577366294046658820.html
contains this:
At the current pace of sales, it would take just 1.5 months to sell all the homes listed in Sacramento, Calif., and 2.4 months to sell all the homes listed in Phoenix.
And yet we see from Zillow that there are 12,841 houses for sale right now in Phoenix:
http://www.zillow.com/homes/Phoenix-AZ_rb/
Wait, that's low. Trulia shows 17,294 houses for sale right now in Phoenix:
http://www.trulia.com/AZ/Phoenix/
Those are all going to sell in 2.4 months? I don't think so.
It is sad to see the WSJ ruin their credibility in this way.
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Los Angeles, CA
Another "source" for inventory and pricing data I have used is housingtracker.net The site is kinda bobo, and I'm not sure of their blog agenda, and frankly their methodology is just as dubious as Redfin, Zillow, et al., but it's one more place to get an idea of what things are like.
I also like that they keep a long history readily available to look at.
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Robert A is the most valuable poster here and patrick deletes his comments. ha. anyway I appreciate your comments Robert. You are way more helpful than I am.
I did similar things as him and I know what he says is legit. I remember him posting back when it was a blog format (he didnt like all the racist comments back then, somehow there were more back then.....)
Anyway I think trulia is a joke -its a scraping site that leaves shit up forever (lots of sold homes) - also trulia trys to stuff in FSBO's and maybe craigs listings which mostly would already be in mls. (also how to verify a fsbo is in escrow or sold? they cant)
Redfin is accurate when the have data which is mostly.
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WSJ forgot the part about wives begging to fellate Realtor®s for a chance to bid 2x the listing price.
Realtor®s tell me that all the time.
And I believe everything a Realtor® tells me.
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robertoaribas says
Well, in that case your head is also way up your you know what. Perhaps you are from some culture where that is a compliment?
Philistine says
They say "Phoenix, AZ 15,666". But again, we don't know their methodology.
The MLS systems are owned and operated by people who get a commission if and only if you buy and who get more if you pay more. Not an objective source by any definition. In fact, about as far from objective as you can get
We definitely lack something like the Case-Shiller for inventory. Or do they track it?
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Patrick says
This is the working definition of subhuman scumfucks that need to be thrown out of helicopters and shot at during the way down.
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how can mls NOT be the most accurate source? its the most accurate outside of FSBO's - they dont track them.
outside of FSBO -EVERYBODY GETS THIER DATA FROM THE MLS.
I worked as a coder for a large site i shall not name that gets a feed from 97% of all MLS's. (a few will not share) all other sites get data from MLS and thats thier data. Everyone outside MLS is wrong! its a fact. Now if they agent leaves it 'for sale' when its really pending for a week or two all other sites being fed from MLS will also be wrong. MLS is the source for all MLS data. Not sure how else to say it.... There is a small issue where agents put listings in mulitiple MLSs (OMG this is a big issue in CA!) which would further cause duplicates on the subscriber sites lke trulia,zillow, realtor.com, on an on. espcially when dumb agents put address in differently such as Unit-A in mls1 and #A in mls2.
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PockyClipsNow says
You don't see any conflict of interest there?
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The only accurate source are the records at the land registries.
The MLS is filled with crap made up by scum-sucking psychopathic Realtors trying to avoid the PatNet helicopter patrol.
DIE, NAR, DIE!
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The MLS's have rules. They dont leave stuff up that is pending on purpose its 2 days in my local mls that they are supposed to update it. Why would they want people calling on pendings? they dont.
Yeah it sux when an agent get a listing, puts in the MLS as pending and no one ever see it - BUT its contract law - the seller contracted for the broker to find him a buyer and put the home in MLS - both conditions are met. If you want to put in a contract it has to be listed on CL,Ebay, MLS, Trulia,etc for 90 days THEN u will reivew all offer you can find agents that will do it. ez.
what is so wrong with contract law? people are free to FSBO or use the MLS, the system is fine. Using MLS to sell is like paying retail prices. Nothing wrong with it. Its legal to pay retail. Who the hell wants to sell thier own house on thier own? apparently only 3% or so of us.
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Monterey, CA
It's hardly a major insult though, is it? I've seen people on here post openly homophobic comments and yet they aren't deleted, but when someone takes a mild swipe at you for posting inaccurate data...
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bmwman91's website
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Well, it IS Patrick's forum. I'd probably have a tendency to delete trash-talk that was directed to me if I had my own forum too.
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If any comment gets flagged "Dislike" 3 times or more I get a note to review it. If not, I probably won't see it. I can't read the whole forum.
But insulting me personally in an ongoing conversation with me definitely gets reviewed by me right away.
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For someone who supposedly made a million+ dollars, constantly brags about his real estate acumen and now believes this site is worthless, "robertoaribas" sure does spend a hell of a lot of time here. Just an observation from a regular reader who seldom posts any comments.
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^
||
I agree.
According to their own claims, this website is full with engineers and lawyers who make $200k to millions.
They all bought Apple since 90s and Gold since 2003.
Yet they are using this website to vent.
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I'm not suprised. All of this is very easy to demonstrate if you grasp one concept.
The Federal Reserve. Which people are fooled by the word "Federal". It is a private banking concern. Once again you can twist yourself into a pretzel making it anymore complicated than what it is.
Every dollar deposted into a bank has the potential for say 10 dollars to be given to it by the Federal Reserve to lend. That means that if a bank has 10 million in deposits. The Federal reserve will then give it 100 million to lend. See. So who is really the lender here? The bank has to pay back that 100 million lent based off of deposits at interest. You pay the bank their interest. It's a good deal for the Federal Reserve. They get paid no matter what. You could default on your loan. Thereby giving up the asset or collateral which the bank has to dispose of to pay the loan back to the Federal Reserve. Ergo swallowed up banks and Chase Manhattan blows into town. The larger the bank the further up the food chain if not directly owned in some way by a member bank of the Federal Reserve.
So it all boils down to who is the "primary lender". The Federal Reserve. Who in all finality gets the assets in complete failure. The Federal Reserve of course.
So what am I saying here? I'm showing you who calls the shots. If everyone ultimatly owes the Federal Reserve. Even the banks that operate off of fractional lending. Even the fucking Government. Who buys buys bonds that the Federal Government pays interest on (The National Debt). Your house, your car, credit card etc all you borrowed starts at the Federal Reserve who issues debt to the banks. That means that ever fucking business that borrows even you ultimately. To demonstrate it in an easy manner if you fail. The businesses fail if all the banks fail. The Federal reserve takes all those assets albiet in the form of possibly a bank one tier down owned by a member bank of the Federal Reserve. Once again it ain't Federal. Its privately owned with a small side show for the tourists.
It's clear even the people that run for "office" have to get loan approval. BASED OFF OF WHAT? Who they want and the game they want to run if you have half a brain. Another words play the game. Even the villiage idiot didn't buy into Ron Pauls game. So basically that tells me a lot of people aren't as ignorant as one might think. Some are of course. Some people just love to fuck with everybody and there is a category for that to.
Who sets the prices for ads? How many corporations do the member banks of the Federal Reserve own. Fuck its simple to figure out. A lot.
It's your work and labor that fuels all this fucking shit in case you haven't figured it all out. It started with a bunch of people that had nothing to eat and a guy with some food. The issuing of credit for that food in exchange for digging shit out of the ground for him. Thats the basics. Then he built them a few huts and they dug even more shit up out of the ground for him probably for the rest of their lives the way these guys work. The paper usury swindel is a fucking monster now. One day you will figure out your labor is worth more than a piece of paper. Which when measured out correctly by them for your food and shelter. Lets you work for the rest of your life for them. Until you hit 65 and are worn out. You finally achieve independence. Just like the Christian guy that dies and figures hes going to heaven. Only to find out he got fucked.
These guys work that fucking game on many levels. So get into one of their games where they have the goal set for you, morons. You will have a grey beard down to your fucking toes when you finally get to it even if you get to it. Or don't think about it and keep rowing
The good news one of the rowers got elected to dump the pee buckets.
The bad news is you have to reach shore in an hour and its 700 miles away.
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Once more you have to figure that Realtors their licensing is there to control pricing. Houses are the one thing that people get from one another. Think about it not much else unless you have a garage sale. Fixed prices as it relates to labor is oh so important to them. Everything other than homebuying is a fixed price with no absolutely no bargaining allowed. That right there should make you awfully suspicious of who owns just about everything. Once again paper is simple for them. They need the labor. They need you trained and laboring (working) for them for a long time.
Fixed price is something you can do to people who owe or are dependant on you. Semites will get that one. Semites are the bad ass traders on the earth. They should be ashamed of themselves for accepting the way things are done. Israel is the same exact thing as America including the fixed pricing and lending. I hope someone blows it up. They must all be sick or have gone stupid there. Am I talking about the rich? No usury you idiots. Labor pimps.
Once again it all backs up to the ultimate lender. Or the primary lender on everything in this land. Once again its not the paper but the assets. You have built a marvelous empire for them take a look at any city or all the malls. Disneyland or all the houses. If they can throw you out it ain't yours.
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robertoaribas says
Zillow and Trulia for South Florida are complete non sense.
In the past month, Trulia keeps factoring in a few questionable listings, that were obviously listed by investors to drive up the average list price. Like a couple 700K sf listings, in neighborhoods that houses typically selling for 120K 10K. Also they keep accounting 8 unit mf buildings in their average listing price.
Both sites show a graph for RE going up in price, while houses are actually selling for less and less.
I guess the NAR are on a renewed propaganda sweep.
When the NAR isn't there to feed the meter, these sites tend to paint a more truthful ugly picture.
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Patrick says
And that surprise you? Again, make the MLS data accurate and public. All players eventually kneel to the power of money.
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CaptainShuddup says
Lender owned no brainer when your whole fucking monetary system is lending it dosen't take much to figure things out.
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robertoaribas says
Upton Sinclair wrote "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his income is dependent on him NOT understanding".
Whatever you do Bobby, Do not aks yourself WHY Real Property values rose so unjustifiably.
Don't ask why da Fed is still offering crisis mode interest rates ? (zero). Banks are still using bailout money to invest in the stock market, not so much in housing. Employment smacked into a wall, hit over 10 percent. Benefits ran out, still showing 8%+. Fool yourself all you like, But the purest part of your mind KNOWS the market is rigged and there will be another significant adjustment any moment now. At least America is the prettiest horse in the glue factory. Gubmint will soon run out of excuses and values will balance out, including overpriced Stocks and Real Property.
Patrick, I envision some folks so frustrated, they will even try to blame you for paying too much for their investment(s), and cancel their account. Keep me on account. I will remain to be open minded. The bottom has been hit 50 times now. Your site allows opposition to the profit motivated majority.
Phil Grande stated that you have never seen a negative quarterly report from any corporation. I was trading right thru the bubble, and the analysts never stopped recommending, BUY BUY BUY!
Yippie Kiyah Patrick !
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I don't want to get into any internet e-wars with anyone, but I have to ask:
1) Doesn't Redfin directly get their listing numbers from the MLS? There is maybe an hour or so delay as their system updates, but it's pretty much a 99% mirror of the MLS
2) Even if you believed the article that inventory is "super low" and there is only 1 month left of houses anywhere, don't we have to examine why inventory dropped by 50% or more in some areas Y-O-Y? If it's because we're running out of houses, or banks are keeping more homes in the shadows purposefully, I think that's important to find out.
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Goran_K says
Wouldn't you say this is not a very good business model? Say the banks should supposedly get $2,500/month in payment on a $600k house. Is it wise the withhold 2-3 properties so they can prop up home prices? That's about $60-$90k loss of revenue without factoring in unpaid property taxes, insurance & HOA. Home prices will have to increase at least 10%-15% for the banks just to break even on holding back the shadow inventory.
The shadow inventory is there, but it's not as big as people claim. Were working through it now. At one point, it was 11.25% of property in default for Santa Clara County. Now it's closer to 4%. We're working through it. Just a couple more years and we'll be back to normal. Home prices will then start to creep up YOY based on the rate of inflation although home prices in the Bay Area has been increasing higher than the reported inflation rate. It's not rocket science. History will repeat itself unless you believe this time is difference. :)
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Goran_K says
Does Debeers keep inventory low ?
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TMAC54 says
Do you really think people coming on here aren't aware of the reasons behind the property bubble? Really, there's some very strange comments appearing in recent months.
Most of the US real estate market now offers pretty decent value and is certainly far better value than most (all?) other comparable countries. Much of CA still seems overpriced, but oh well, you take your chances. Wait and see if there's an improvement or buy if you want to and can reasonably afford it. Who cares? Why is it a problem to you and others? This has nothing to do with greed for most people. It is their biggest financial commitment, and somewhere along the line, they will likely take the plunge if they don't want to rent for the rest of their lives. Nobody knows when the bottom will occur, so just make your own choice and quit moaning about what other people are doing.
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Many short sales will show up on these sites because they are in a "Contingent Show" status. Redfin has the best data out there for a public site, but it isn't perfect and neither is the MLS. The comments here reminded me that all cretans are liars.
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This "2.4 months to sell all the homes listed in Phoenix" cannot be true.
Why do people want to buy a house in April? Just in time for the 120 degrees summer?
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E-man says
You don't think the banks realize that any additional supply on the market will cause prices to tank. Then the realization of the tanking with low supply will make almost everyone wise up and understand the situation. At least if you have minor drops in price with low supply, you can throw headlines like they are at the public. The game is to confuse people. To make sure they think they better rush to buy. It is the perception that they are after, not the reality. The reality is they are losing money on the shadow inventory. They don't like it one bit, but they have no choice. If they try to throw more supply at an already sick buyer then the game of covering up the reality is over. Many people on this site get it, but we are only a small percentage of the buyers. The majority listen to the Mercury, WSJ, and NAR. They don't realize they are being hit with NAR propaganda.
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Bigsby says
Isn't your whole dribble doing exactly what you tell other to stop? Weird.
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Bigsby says
Come to his house and insult him? really?
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robertoaribas says
Good for you. Trying to win an argument by throwing around wealth numbers is not cool. Some of the wealthiest people I know are also some of the brightest. I'm not talking about wealth in the single digit millions. I mean they get their name on the top 500 wealthiest in the world. I have never seen or heard them talk about their wealth in a debate though. Not cool.
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Monterey, CA
bg says
Yes, really. I read worse insults on here every day. Are those deleted?
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Er, no. Point me to where I call people stupid, greedy, sheep etc. for not buying real estate.
And your comment is rather rich considering what you post on many (all?) threads.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
I think this website needs a facepalm smiley.
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Bigsby says
Good debate technique there. Turn it on the other person. Nice
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
It's not a debate.
And by the way, well done on your comment about personally knowing some of the richest people in the world and using that in your argument against Roberto mentioning the money he's made in real estate (and on a real estate forum as well - go figure). Comedy gold.
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Bigsby says
Glad you caught that. Sometimes when you make the same point that you are highlighting, people tend to get it. :) It is NOT cool, ever!
Again, nice job on deflecting.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
And neither is bullshitting.
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Bigsby says
I know, that most people are ignorant of the reasons for the artificial appreciation since the early 70s. You are NOT aware either, or you would not be arguing "The values are fair" Bigsby, You also ask. WHO CARES ? Like roadkill , I hate seeing the masses being duped through psychologically investigated marketing tactics for the only purpose of separating the unwary, anxious & greedy, (sounds like my legal firm) from their hard earned money. Bigsby; I am not moaning. I have a dual purpose. #1. Protect people like you from being duped. #2. Expedite real property values returning to their PHENOMENAL formula, so that my Grandchildren might enjoy appreciation. They certainly will not enjoy social security.
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"The values are fair." What? I said that most of the US represents pretty decent value, mainly because it does.
And you hate seeing the masses duped, do you? How kind of you. But don't worry, I don't actually require any protection from being duped from you as I'm quite capable of living my life without your help. Anyhow, that's just me, but I'm sure many of the readers on this forum will sleep safer knowing that you're on the job.
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Bigsby says
I know one that is not. Can't comment on the other. Truth is elusive in life. Absolute truth is impossible. I trust my own memory though. It has failed me with key and wallet placement, but in memories of meeting and knowing people it hasn't.