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Still waiting for a bottom?

By iwog   Follow   Wed, 2 May 2012, 6:37am   20,307 views   261 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Not a good idea.

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1. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,643 comments

   22   10:20am Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Look at Contra Costa country. List is 206 to 148 for sale. Maybe I am not reading this right, but to me that is a hell of a lot of underbidding going on You need to compare listing price from 2-3 months ago with sales price today. If you look at those charts, you can clearly see the sales price lagging the list price.

2. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   23   10:44am Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says I'd trust Iwog on this. He is, after all iwog says Now here's the house I bought in 2009. 4br, 2ba for $208,000 and rented for $1900 the day I bought it. It would get an easy $2000 per month if I rented it today a bottom feeder. That is why he is complaining,he is outbid so many times. :)

3. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 449 comments Boulder Creek, CA

   24   11:47am Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says CrazyMan says You realize the last time you posted this, we waited a year and proved that it didn't come to a fruition right? Oh, you probably don't remember that. You're wrong. Prices rose and then fell back again. I was disputing the assertion (as I am now) that the market is continuing to crash. Here's what happened last time from your own thread: Then prices turned lower and didn't just "fall back down again". Remember you claimed the bottom was in (again) last time this happened. You were wrong last time and I don't expect this time to be any different.

4. edvard2 Follow Befriend 34 threads 2,111 comments

   25   12:05pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Here's just an ancedotal observation of mine as well. There are many cases where if I look at the overall list of homes on any number of real estate sites, as much as half of the homes listed are foreclosures. While the level of foreclosures has dropped, there are still a lot of them and as long as that is the case, that is going to be yet one more thing that will create more friction in the market in terms of trying to go upwards.

5. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

   26   12:08pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I'm waiting for a bikini bottom and I am gonna get it soon enough. House price bottom? Who gives a shit, it's gonna scrape along that bottom for years to come.

6. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   27   12:18pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   E-man says You live only once. Don't lie in your death bed and say "I should have ............" Well, you fill in the blank. :) "I should have made more bad financial decisions based on short-term emotional fulfillment and spent my years working for the loan sharks..."

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   28   12:22pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CrazyMan says Then prices turned lower and didn't just "fall back down again". Remember you claimed the bottom was in (again) last time this happened. You were wrong last time and I don't expect this time to be any different. Why are you lying? What's the point? Quote me or stop representing what you think I said.

8. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   29   12:23pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The bottom was in 2009. Funny Iwog. All your graphs show that price now is lower than in 2009, and next year will be lower than today, and the year after will be lower than next year, and so on, and so on, and so on. The more the banks artificially restrict the inventory, the more shadow inventory will bloat, the more shadow inventory bloats, the lower the prices will go, and so on, and so on, and so on.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   30   12:25pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Not referring to the time gap. I meant the price gap. The listing pricing is the only thing really moving up. Just means the sellers are trying to milk everything they can out of the buyers. From your charts the gap is the largest it has been since 2009. Look at Contra Costa country. List is 206 to 148 for sale. Maybe I am not reading this right, but to me that is a hell of a lot of underbidding going on. 25% under list price? I have my threshold set at 50%, so maybe I will get a place soon enough. ;) No, the price gap is the time gap. The only reason closing prices haven't caught up with listing prices is that there's a 2-3 month lag. You can see this in prior years. I'm not sure why Contra Costa is so out of whack, but you'll see a corresponding spike in the next month or two.

10. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    31   12:26pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Funny Iwog. All your graphs show that price now is lower than in 2009, and next year will be lower than today, and the year after will be lower than next year, and so on, and so on, and so on. I actually explained this in great and glorious detail and even provided examples. You didn't read any of it did you, because if you DID you would have responded to what I wrote instead of posting this nonsense.

11. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    32   12:28pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Only half? Try some other towns in California with 2x as many foreclosures as regular sales.

12. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    33   12:31pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Nationally, the bubble is mostly deflated and prices have nearly returned to historical norms: http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/ It looks like there might be another small leg down nationally (from the current 127 to the postwar average of about 120. Every market is different of course.

13. edvard2 Follow Befriend 34 threads 2,111 comments

    34   12:46pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think what's also going on out there, because yes- I will admit there is suddenly more interest, mainly because there is less inventory, is that its been awhile since there was any real headline risk. As in not a lot of doom and gloom stories. From a topical viewpoint everything seems fine and dandy with the DOW and NASDAQ doing well and the morning news giving little tid-bits of positive news. That said, there are still many things happening that could easily tip things back towards negative territory- mainly in what's going on in Europe, which as of now has yet to really resolve much of the problems it still faces. As far as prices and performance returning to historical norms, the US housing market has been fueled by bubbles, investors and speculation for so long that most don't even know what a 'normal' market is. That's especially true on the coasts. People tend to forget that on average home price appreciation is generally fairly small and barely keeps up with inflation. Ultimately this would be better overall because it would mean less of a see-saw type dramatic swing and more of a slow but steady increase, which is good for owners, sellers, and buyers.

14. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    35   12:51pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   edvard2 says As in not a lot of doom and gloom stories. From a topical viewpoint everything seems fine and dandy with the DOW and NASDAQ doing well and the morning news giving little tid-bits of positive news. That's why I sold my stocks. The positive news is already priced-in. It's quiet...a little too quiet. ;-) I'm betting the whole Eurofiasco will be back in the news in the coming months.

15. edvard2 Follow Befriend 34 threads 2,111 comments

    36   1:02pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says That's why I sold my stocks. The positive news is already priced-in. It's quiet...a little too quiet. ;-) Not sure if I'd go that far. There's always the threat of headline risk. The thing to realize too is that it would seem that once a "story" has been out there for awhile- as in when the Euro issues first reared its head- the reaction was strong. Its not like the problem has gone away. It more that investors are "used" to the story. We'll see...

16. gregpfielding Follow Befriend (9) 43 threads 288 comments Danville, CA gregpfielding's website

    37   1:24pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog, for you: http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/05/02/april-2012-stats-for-concord-starter-market/ "-The starter market average sales price was up from the previous year. Last month (April, 2012) had a average sales price of $247,300. April, 2011, had an average sales price of $230,300. This represents an increase of about 7.4% ($17,000) year over year. . -The current average list price for homes is $268,400. This compares to $263,500 for the previous month. -Closed transactions continue to be very low due to lack of inventory. There were 18 closed transactions in April, 2012, compared to 45 closed transactions in April 2011. There is a pattern of multiple offers with many buyers bidding over list price in the current market. -Inventory remains extremely low with only 41 active listings at this time. -Traditional sales and flips continue to increase in the local market. The pattern of closed transactions in April was as follows..."

17. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    38   1:30pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I actually explained this in great and glorious detail and even provided examples. Hmm. Let's see: Iwog's Leap of Faith A Play with 2 actors (Iwog - the parrot, Dunnross - the realist) Iwog (shows a graph of prices going down): The prices are going up. Dunnross: But prices are going down - Iwog look at your own f*n graph. Iwog: But look, they are going up, can't you see? Dunnross: I can only see them going down. I can see lower lows and lower highs - typical pattern for a bear market. Iwog: But look, they are going up, can't you see? Dunnross: But Iwog, look San Francisco - down, Alameda - down, Contra Costa - down, Concord - down, Lafayette - down, Hayward - down, Castro Valley - down. Iwog: But not in my back yard. Don't you know - they ain't making any more land. RE Prices are always going up. There is still plenty of money on the sidelines. Look at all the pent-up demand. Stop throwing your money away by renting. Location, location, location! Conclusion: Just because iwog the parrot keeps repeating the same thing over and over, again, doesn't make him right.

18. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 171 threads 4,211 comments Premium

    39   1:48pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Dunnross, Get over it. Iwog is living the entrepreneurial life like Edison and Jobs hammering down the big bucks, including an extra $1000 a month on a box next to his office in Concord. In a couple of years, he'll be waking up to tongue baths from his harem on his island in the Aegean and spending the rest of the day fucking on the beach and barking instructions to the chef via mute slave eunuchs after he dumps all his property for the 10x you refused to believe was on the way.

19. hanera Follow Befriend (3) 124 comments

    40   1:48pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   E-man says So what? The shadow inventory is huge. It is estimated somewhere between 1.6M to 10.3M. I know, I know. The estimated shadow inventory range is huge. It's an educated guess. Nobody knows for sure. What about all of the baby boomers? They will sell their homes someday right? Who's going to buy their homes? But, but, but unemployment is still high. Who can afford all those homes making 10 bucks an hour? Where do those folks whose house is foreclosed stay? If baby boomers sell their houses, where are they going to stay? At national level, price of houses varies with employment rate and income level. Situation can be different depending on neighborhood.

20. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    41   1:49pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says A Play with 2 actors (Iwog - the parrot, Dunnross - the realist) What you wrote as no similarity to what I wrote. You're basically making up shit and pretending it came from me. Pathetic. It's the typical dishonesty I'm used to seeing from you. If anyone wants to read what I actually wrote, it's above in this thread. Click here ---->iwog says

21. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    42   1:49pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says In a couple of years, he'll be waking up to tongue baths from his harem on his island in the Aegean and spending the rest of the day fucking on the beach and barking instructions to the chef via mute slave eunuchs after he dumps all his property for the 10x you refused to believe was on the way. God I hope so.

22. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    43   5:39pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says No, the price gap is the time gap. The only reason closing prices haven't caught up with listing prices is that there's a 2-3 month lag. You can see this in prior years. I'm not sure why Contra Costa is so out of whack, but you'll see a corresponding spike in the next month or two. Don't hold your breath waiting for the spike. Not a good idea. ;)

23. codebug Follow Befriend 1 threads 10 comments

    44   6:28pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Ok IWOG, I will bite and quote you... "Until today every single long term statement I've ever made about this real estate market is that it is FLAT. Every single short term statement I've made regarding this market is that it tends to rise in the spring and fall going into winter." This is incorrect. The market is coming down. There are seasonal variations where prices rise in spring and fall in winter, but overall, year over year, prices are down...

24. errc Follow Befriend (7) 30 threads 1,215 comments 31 male Premium

    45   6:47pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   desirable areas, with jobs,,,,,,prices surely AREN'T dropping. I'd be hard pressed to entertain the idea that prices are on their way up. I can't speak for Calif, but here on the east coast, building continues, and people are buying. One thing i notice, is more and more older houses on the outskirts, are up for sale. And they sit. I could see this being a trend in other places, what with gas breaking peoples backs. As much as i'd like to see a greater purge of prices across the board, if i was looking to buy in a desirable area, no way would i be waiting for lower prices. PErsonally, i'm waiting for 2% 15 year re-fi opportunity.

25. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    46   6:47pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   hanera says E-man says So what? The shadow inventory is huge. It is estimated somewhere between 1.6M to 10.3M. I know, I know. The estimated shadow inventory range is huge. It's an educated guess. Nobody knows for sure. What about all of the baby boomers? They will sell their homes someday right? Who's going to buy their homes? But, but, but unemployment is still high. Who can afford all those homes making 10 bucks an hour? Where do those folks whose house is foreclosed stay? If baby boomers sell their houses, where are they going to stay? At national level, price of houses varies with employment rate and income level. Situation can be different depending on neighborhood. Hanara, I know iwog personally. I was being sarcastic. It was supposed to be for laugh. :)

26. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    47   6:51pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   errc says i'm waiting for 2% 15 year re-fi opportunity. I hope you still have your job and equity in your house by the time interest rate hit 2%. Be careful what you wish for.

27. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    48   6:53pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says dunnross says A Play with 2 actors (Iwog - the parrot, Dunnross - the realist) What you wrote as no similarity to what I wrote. You're basically making up shit and pretending it came from me. Pathetic. It's the typical dishonesty I'm used to seeing from you. If anyone wants to read what I actually wrote, it's above in this thread. Click here ---->iwog says Iwog, I have to admit. That was hilarious what dunross posted above. :)

28. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,552 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    49   7:53pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ptiemann says guys, I don't know why you're all fighting about bottoms and stuff. I say, it's better to rent. Saves you all the worries. And, ownership is not for everyone anyways. Some personalities are better off renting. But Peter. It's fun to argue. Otherwise, it'll be hell of boring here. :)

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    50   10:13pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   codebug says This is incorrect. The market is coming down. There are seasonal variations where prices rise in spring and fall in winter, but overall, year over year, prices are down... We have had an essentially flat market since early 2009. Furthermore the homes I could buy in 2009 are NOT the homes I can buy in 2012. There has been a significant quality decline that is not visible in raw numbers.

30. hanera Follow Befriend (3) 124 comments

    51   11:06pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog, To a layman, it is in a downtrend since mid 2010 even though technical analysts would view price since early 2009 is flat and probably would remain "flat" for a few more years.

31. tdeloco Follow Befriend (2) 11 threads 218 comments San Jose, CA

    52   11:27pm Wed 2 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Furthermore the homes I could buy in 2009 are NOT the homes I can buy in 2012. There has been a significant quality decline that is not visible in raw numbers. Are these REOs? Or just regular houses in the market? I suppose people were renovating like crazy up until the bust.

32. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    53   12:27am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I attacked IWOG's reasoning on here alot a couple years ago, but the data today far more help his case than hurt it: 1. bidding wars on properties. Not something that would happen in a badly falling market. 2. lack of inventory. Apparently, to the patrick perma bears, lots of inventory is a terrible sign, see 2006 and 2007 posts for examples, but now, lack of inventory is also a bad sign... go figure. 3. Appeal to unmeasurable conspiracies to rationalize a preconceived opinion. I was a bear for years based on DATA that I could measure, that data has turned rather dramatically in many housing markets. Not all obviously, but ignoring it today is just as foolish as ignoring it was in 2006...

33. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    54   6:37am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The graph shows that the bubble is over. It's deflated. Things are back to "normal" with small fluctuations in price. Of course, that doesn't mean anyone should buy a house if they can't really afford it.

34. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    55   7:13am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says We have had an essentially flat market since early 2009. Thanks for the laugh. The line is flat is you look at it with your head tilted to the right. :)

35. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    56   7:16am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says 1. bidding wars on properties. Not something that would happen in a badly falling market. 2. lack of inventory. Apparently, to the patrick perma bears, lots of inventory is a terrible sign, see 2006 and 2007 posts for examples, but now, lack of inventory is also a bad sign... go figure. 1. bidding underwars 2. lack of inventory because 25% of mortgage holders are underwater. Banks are holding back their inventory hoping for better prices down the road. And people are unemployed so last thing they want is pay for moving. i.e. they are broke and tapping into their savings, 401k, etc. That can't last Good luck to you.

36. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,415 comments Davis, CA

    57   7:37am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   If there weren't special programs in the works, to hand over blocks of foreclosures to investors. If there weren't special programs in the works, to allow renting out houses to forestall foreclosures.... If banks weren't dragging their feet on foreclosures, to avoid flooding the market with inventory..... Sure I might buy that the market has "hit bottom". Otherwise we are just Japan, and the rate of decline has levelled off, but it hasn't stopped. My old stomping grounds Atlanta was down 17% since last year. Sure all real estate is local yada yada but I'm not seeing evidence of a real bottom.

37. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    58   8:03am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says Thanks for the laugh. The line is flat is you look at it with your head tilted to the right. :) Isn't that the point? Since the mid 1990s prices have gone sharply higher. From 2006 to 2009 prices went sharply lower. Since 2009 however prices have stayed within a narrow range with prices today being just about equal to prices in early 2009. You realize this is all academic anyway right? You can't apply large numbers to single homes. Someone buying today is going to find lower prices and a worse selection than someone buying in 2010, so what's your ultimate point? That it was bad to buy in 2009 but it's good to buy today with bidding wars driving prices up? Posts on this forum in 2009 were almost all about how the crash was going to continue. Several people predicted prices would end up 90% below peak. At least two posters predicted we'd see real estate back to 1975 nominal values. In that context, calling a flat market was divine prophesy.

38. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,016 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    59   8:16am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says That it was bad to buy in 2009 but it's good to buy today with bidding wars driving prices up? This statement in incorrect. There are multiple bids, but sold prices are still below list. That is not a bidding war, rather a bidding under-war. Buyers are in the drivers seat. The thing is people will complain all the time they didn't get the house for less. I have a friend bidding 100k under and if he doesn't get it he will complain about bidding wars. That wasn't the environment back in 2009. Welcome to the new reality - buyers complaining they only got the house for 40% less than the peak. That is not anything to feel joyous about as a home owner. And I am one btw, many times over, just not in the BA.

39. errc Follow Befriend (7) 30 threads 1,215 comments 31 male Premium

    60   8:28am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   E-man says errc says i'm waiting for 2% 15 year re-fi opportunity. I hope you still have your job and equity in your house by the time interest rate hit 2%. Be careful what you wish for. Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure. Care to explain? I was born in 1981. Interest rates have been falling my entire life. What is it you know that I don't that suggest a trend reversal?

40. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    61   8:30am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says That is not a bidding war, rather a bidding under-war. Bottom feeder by his own words,"I am outbid so many times". Why can't he offer 30% over asking price and seal the deal? problem solved. Duh!

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