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Still waiting for a bottom?

By iwog   Follow   Wed, 2 May 2012, 6:37am   20,308 views   261 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Not a good idea.

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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   62   8:42am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   bubblesitter says Bottom feeder by his own words,"I am outbid so many times". Why can't he offer 30% over asking price and seal the deal? problem solved. Duh! That makes sense. RentingForHalfTheCost says This statement in incorrect. There are multiple bids, but sold prices are still below list. What the hell is "list"? I made a cash offer of $170,000 on a 2br, 1ba next to my office. Every similar house within a mile that has sold in the last year closed at around $170,000. According to the realtor, I wasn't even close. I'll find out when it transfers. This point was secondary anyway. There is no comparison between the 2009 market and today's market. What's selling now is the leftovers. There hasn't been any money for remodels or repairs since 2006. Homes selling now are either broken down strategic foreclosures or overpriced flips.

2. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

   63   8:51am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says This point was secondary anyway. There is no comparison between the 2009 market and today's market. What's selling now is the leftovers. There hasn't been any money for remodels or repairs since 2006. Homes selling now are either broken down strategic foreclosures or overpriced flips. This is from your point of view - a very low-end market by bay area standards. Of course you will get outbid. The folks you are renting to have figured out they can pay less by owning. This is not the case in all segments. Anyway, maybe it is time you sell to these folks who need homes for there families. You would have made a nice profit and can move on to other investments. Or you can remain a landlord, Mr Potter. ;)

3. errc Follow Befriend (7) 30 threads 1,220 comments 31 male Premium

   64   9:38am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Just glanced at yahoo finance, and yet again, front page news is MORTGAGE RATES HIT RECORD LOW (again). Down over 20% Yoy. 15 yr right around 3.0% The brilliant problem solvers in usfedgov continue to bandy about the idea that if only they could refi all those hanger ons folks that still have jobs and have remained current on their underwater mortgage for 5-7 years now, that a fixed lower rate on a 400k mortgage tied to a 150k house, problem will be solved. I bought in 07 @ 7.125 Refi jan 09 @ 5.0 Patiently waiting a 15yr. @ 2.5% and if I'm fortunate, 2.0% I intend to keep the house forever, so if nothing changes, all is well. If there was a simple transparent way to wager on it, my money would be on Flat market, priced in dollars declining in value Lower interest rates Stagnant wages Shit accessibility to credit Higher petro Basically, more of the same

4. Shawn Follow Befriend 3 threads 106 comments San Diego, CA

   65   10:50am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The bottom was in 2009. Yes I know Case-Shiller says prices have drifted lower since then, but the homes selling in 2012 are not the homes selling in 2009. I bought my last Concord house for $150,000 in March, 2012. It's a wreck that is currently being renovated and will require a minimum of $50,000 to bring it back to decent condition. (and add a bathroom) It's smaller and might bring in $1750 if I'm lucky. Now here's the house I bought in 2009. 4br, 2ba for $208,000 and rented for $1900 the day I bought it. It would get an easy $2000 per month if I rented it today: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Concord/1159-Carey-Dr-94520/home/745899 If you're only looking at the raw numbers, you're missing a huge part of the real estate market. I'd trade 2009 for 2011 or 2012 any day of the week. 2009 was the bottom, at least around these parts and as far as I'm concerned. This post reeks of denial.

5. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

   66   11:15am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Still waiting for a bottom? You should change the title to: Still waiting for a bottom at the "low end"?

6. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   67   11:41am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says This is from your point of view - a very low-end market by bay area standards. Of course you will get outbid. The folks you are renting to have figured out they can pay less by owning. This is a mid level market. Low end is Pittsburg, Antioch, Brentwood, Richmond, Hercules, Benica, and Vallejo. Concord looks like upper class compared to those surrounding areas. rowemoore says Anyway, maybe it is time you sell to these folks who need homes for there families. You would have made a nice profit and can move on to other investments. Or you can remain a landlord, Mr Potter. ;) I'm going to sell one home to my secretary as soon as she saves up a down payment. As for the rest, where do you suggest I invest? All my potential customers have been fleeced and the cash given to billionaires. Make no mistake. This recovery is going to be short and temporary. We're in a Republican economy now which will see a full scale depression every other decade and numerous recessions in between.

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   68   11:43am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Shawn says This post reeks of denial. What am I denying exactly? I can sell the same home I linked for more than I bought it for in 2009 so what would be the point? I can exit any time fully intact.

8. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,818 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   69   11:44am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   rowemoore says Anyway, maybe it is time you sell to these folks who need homes for there families. You would have made a nice profit and can move on to other investments. Or you can remain a landlord, Mr Potter. ;) Nobody NEEDS to own a home, ever. people need shelter, and renting or owning both provide that. IWOG isn't in this for philanthropy, he has no responsibility to sell to do anyone a favor. In his shoes, I'd sell when the price/rent made selling the better choice.

9. ATK Follow Befriend 4 threads 29 comments ATK's website

   70   11:46am Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   interest rate on savings are getting lower and lower as well... a 1.5% interest is now 0.2%... you may have well already declared it to be 0.00%. what is next? more fees? with these interest rates both for savings and for a mortgage, the housing market still looks ugly...

10. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    71   12:19pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ATK says interest rate on savings are getting lower and lower as well... a 1.5% interest is now 0.2%... you may have well already declared it to be 0.00%. what is next? more fees? with these interest rates both for savings and for a mortgage, the housing market still looks ugly... Not sure I understand your point. The housing market is almost back to where it "should" be, at least nationally: http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/ The bubble is basically over. With interest rates so low, that's good for buying a house...at least in theory.

11. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 204 threads 4,416 comments Davis, CA

    72   12:27pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says With interest rates so low, So there's the key point. Can we stay at ZIRP indefinitely? Some say no you cannot. The Japanese example is you're in a hole and just keep digging. How will that end? Maybe the horse will learn to sing. *shrug* If rates go up even a smidge, prices will drop further.

12. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    73   12:31pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Vicente says Can we stay at ZIRP indefinitely? Good question. I really have no idea. Does anyone "control" interest rates or are they set by "the market"? Supposedly the Fed sets interest rates but is that even true? How exactly does the Fed control intrest rates...is that even possible?

13. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

    74   12:34pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says rowemoore says Anyway, maybe it is time you sell to these folks who need homes for there families. You would have made a nice profit and can move on to other investments. Or you can remain a landlord, Mr Potter. ;) Nobody NEEDS to own a home, ever. people need shelter, and renting or owning both provide that. IWOG isn't in this for philanthropy, he has no responsibility to sell to do anyone a favor. In his shoes, I'd sell when the price/rent made selling the better choice. Gentle teasing - that's all. Christ, you slumlords never lighten up!

14. rooemoore Follow Befriend 41 threads 907 comments Ross, CA

    75   12:38pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says As for the rest, where do you suggest I invest? All my potential customers have been fleeced and the cash given to billionaires. Invest in stuff rich people buy. Unfortunately for the rest of us, that market segment is growing nicely.

15. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    76   12:40pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   rowemoore says Invest in stuff rich people buy. Unfortunately for the rest of us, that market segment is growing nicely. True. I'm investing in private security companies. They'll make good money when the idiot masses finally realize how much they've been skrewed.

16. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    77   12:59pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I can sell the same home I linked for more than I bought it for in 2009 so what would be the point? The point is that until you actually sell it and show us the proof, it's all speculation.

17. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    78   1:02pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says ATK says interest rate on savings are getting lower and lower as well... a 1.5% interest is now 0.2%... you may have well already declared it to be 0.00%. what is next? more fees? with these interest rates both for savings and for a mortgage, the housing market still looks ugly... Not sure I understand your point. The housing market is almost back to where it "should" be, at least nationally: http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/ The bubble is basically over. With interest rates so low, that's good for buying a house...at least in theory. The bubble may be over in a big part of the country, but in places like the BA, LA and parts of the East Coast, it's still alive and well. Over the next 2-3 years we will see national prices breaking way below the trendline, and the fortress areas come down to touch the trendline. After that, comes the final phase of the bubble bust, where all areas across the board, come down to their respective 1975 levels.

18. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    79   1:13pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says Over the next 2-3 years we will see national prices breaking way below the trendline, and the fortress areas come down to touch the trendline. After that, comes the final phase of the bubble bust, where all areas across the board, come down to their respective 1975 levels. Da Da Da DOOM!!! And then we will enter the phase of nuclear war following by bird flu that will wipe out 1/3 of population and then the aliens arrive and wipe out the rest... I personally don't believe its going to be 1975 prices, I think it will be Spring of 1973 prices. March 15th, 1973 to be exact. :)

19. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    80   1:16pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   SubOink says dunnross says Over the next 2-3 years we will see national prices breaking way below the trendline, and the fortress areas come down to touch the trendline. After that, comes the final phase of the bubble bust, where all areas across the board, come down to their respective 1975 levels. Da Da Da DOOM!!! And then we will enter the phase of nuclear war following by bird flu that will wipe out 1/3 of population and then the aliens arrive and wipe out the rest... I personally don't believe its going to be 1975 prices, I think it will be Spring of 1973 prices. March 15th, 1973 to be exact. :) People who think that history's biggest bubble, which rose to unprecedented heights of 12-15x the average income, would just come down to touch the historic norm, and only correct 10-20% in fortress areas, are completely clueless about how bubbles actually work.

20. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    81   1:18pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Does Case-Shiller have charts of the last 10 (or so) years for specific metro areas? I did a simple Google search and didn't find much in the way of charts, just news stories.

21. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    82   1:22pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says People who think that history's biggest bubble, which rose to unprecedented heights of 12-15x the average income, would just come down to touch the historic norm, and only correct 10-20% in fortress areas, are completely clueless about how bubbles actually work. But if it is all unprecedented, how are we to know WHAT will happen? It has apparently been a large enough event to spur massive government intervention, so really, who is to say what will ultimately happen? It stands to reason that the massive check is coming to the table, and with everyone forgetting their wallet, it could get ugly. However, lots of stuff in life "stands to reason" and end up doing something else.

22. kashif313 Follow Befriend 6 comments Corona, CA

    83   1:26pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Im a home buyer. I will buy a home and live in it period. Currently Im a renter. I can afford to wait for the right home/price. As I've said before with actual unemployment/underemployment at >25% in California and pent up inventory at the banks will not allow home prices to appreciate. FLAT to lower is the new normal. If Banks decide to collude and give an appearance of low supply then they can. There is only so much low hanging fruit on that tree and after the banks are done shaking it, they will be back to square one. Eventually they will have to relieve their inventory, until then I continue to rent. As for Iwog spewing his ideas, its a free country - spew away. Does anybody, other than himself and his multiple personalities, buy what he says? Hardly.

23. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    84   1:27pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   iwog says At least two posters predicted we'd see real estate back to 1975 nominal values. And I still stand strong behind my prediction. But I never said it was going to happen in 2012. Currently prices are falling towards my 1975 point, so, so far, the validity of my prediction has only been fortified by the current price trends.

24. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    85   1:33pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bmwman91 says dunnross says People who think that history's biggest bubble, which rose to unprecedented heights of 12-15x the average income, would just come down to touch the historic norm, and only correct 10-20% in fortress areas, are completely clueless about how bubbles actually work. But if it is all unprecedented, how are we to know WHAT will happen? It has apparently been a large enough event to spur massive government intervention, so really, who is to say what will ultimately happen? It stands to reason that the massive check is coming to the table, and with everyone forgetting their wallet, it could get ugly. However, lots of stuff in life "stands to reason" and end up doing something else. It's been unprecedented for real-estate, here, in the US. However, it happened before for tulips, tech stocks, south china sea company, etc, etc. And they all ended right where they started (in nominal terms). Real-estate bubbles in other countries also ended right were they began.

25. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    86   1:57pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The gummint isn't going to let prices fall to 1975 levels. There are too many important people (banks and boomers) that would be hurt.

26. Shawn Follow Befriend 3 threads 106 comments San Diego, CA

    87   2:14pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Shawn says This post reeks of denial. What am I denying exactly? I can sell the same home I linked for more than I bought it for in 2009 so what would be the point? I can exit any time fully intact. You acknowledge the 2009 lows were broken, and then still insist on a 2009 bottom. That's denial. Whether or not you could sell the home you bought in 2009 for more than you paid doesn't change the situation for the market. You are one buyer, investing in homes in a specific tier and area. And by the way, it looks like there are a few near by recent sales showing lower prices.

27. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,024 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    88   2:36pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says What the hell is "list"? List is playing short-stop. ;)

28. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    89   2:44pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Shawn says You acknowledge the 2009 lows were broken, and then still insist on a 2009 bottom. That's denial. Again and again I remind you and everyone else that I made a detailed argument (including examples) of why this is true. Address THAT argument and stop with the denial nonsense. I might be right and I might be wrong, but ignoring every relevant fact other than a price index isn't going to determine that.

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    90   2:45pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says iwog says At least two posters predicted we'd see real estate back to 1975 nominal values. And I still stand strong behind my prediction. But I never said it was going to happen in 2012. Currently prices are falling towards my 1975 point, so, so far, the validity of my prediction has only been fortified by the current price trends. See what I mean?

30. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    91   2:48pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   wthrfrk80 says Does Case-Shiller have charts of the last 10 (or so) years for specific metro areas? I did a simple Google search and didn't find much in the way of charts, just news stories. Yes. The easiest way to find it is a Google search of: "Case-Shiller Los Angeles redfin" subsistuting "Los Angeles" for whatever major metro area you're trying to look at. Here's what you'll get:

31. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 171 threads 4,220 comments Premium

    92   2:54pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Halfway to CANNIBAL ANARCHY and accelerating.

32. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,818 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    93   4:33pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Mitt Romney is promising the cannibals he will send them missionaries, in order to secure that voting bloc...

33. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 171 threads 4,220 comments Premium

    94   4:35pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Who says Mitt doesn't have an informed political imagination?

34. ThreeBays Follow Befriend (1) 2 threads 53 comments San Mateo, CA

    95   6:55pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Wait, wasn't there a thread that proved that RedFin's graphs always point up... only to be changed a few months later?

35. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    96   7:18pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ThreeBays says Wait, wasn't there a thread that proved that RedFin's graphs always point up... only to be changed a few months later? I believe there was a bug in their software,not sure if they fixed it.

36. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    97   7:38pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says And I still stand strong behind my prediction. But I never said it was going to happen in 2012. Currently prices are falling towards my 1975 point, so, so far, the validity of my prediction has only been fortified by the current price trends. The great thing about your statement is....you can say this for the next 30 years. Nobody can prove you wrong because whatever somebody says...1975 prices are coming...and in 10 years or whenever, when the next crash happens you will be the biggest poster of all going...I told you so...and you will be right for a few years once again until the market goes up again and you will insist once again that its going lower...

37. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 171 threads 4,220 comments Premium

    98   7:46pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   The hell with 1975. We're heading back to 1347. Then downward to CANNIBAL ANARCHY! Smell the catastrophic descent into dystopian horror!

38. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    99   8:35pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says The hell with 1975. We're heading back to 1347. Then downward to CANNIBAL ANARCHY! Smell the catastrophic descent into dystopian horror! I thought that's where we are at...

39. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,576 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    100   9:23pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   ThreeBays says Wait, wasn't there a thread that proved that RedFin's graphs always point up... only to be changed a few months later? One of the Redfin executives posted to this site that they had a software glitch that caused historical (not current) price information to be inaccurate. He said they fixed it but who knows.

40. B.A.C.A.H. Follow Befriend (6) 5 threads 2,359 comments

    101   10:08pm Thu 3 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   kashif313 says Currently Im a renter. I can afford to wait for the right home/price. As I've said before with actual unemployment/underemployment at >25% in California and pent up inventory at the banks will not allow home prices to appreciate. FLAT to lower is the new normal. Don't plan on moving from Corona to the Bay Area in that case. Especially, not to The Fortress.kashif313 says As for Iwog spewing his ideas, its a free country - spew away. Does anybody, other than himself and his multiple personalities, buy what he says? Hardly. He does not speak for Corona. He is in the Bay Area. It is different here. It is different this time.

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