Not a good idea.
Still waiting for a bottom?
By iwog Follow Wed, 2 May 2012, 6:37am 20,309 views 261 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549
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B.A.C.A.H. says
Btw the "fortress" gets mentioned a lot here. I have gathered that it means desireable areas, is there a more precise definition?
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drtor says
The original meaning of fortress was "fortress against the housing crash".
As you can see in the above Case-Shiller graph, high end housing didn't suffer nearly the magnitude of crash that mid and low end housing suffered. Of course percentage wise, it didn't appreciate nearly as much either.
Lately fortress seems to mean upper class communities more than anything else.
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People still looking to "make money" off of something that is a basic need - shelter, and the carrying costs to this "asset" are incredible.
Nobody wants to do it the honest way anymore mostly because of all the inflation required to fuel all the get rich quick scams going on.
Its a sad day for the "99%" - they are going to make things "better" by trying to re-inflate the housing asset bubble thereby destroying the middle class.
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drtor says
Only since 2000... for many who been here long before that its rather a meaningless term. So whats so desireable about living next to Stanford ? So it depends if you ask a Californian or a migrant from Boston... I guess "Cambridge" would be the other "Fortress"....
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Fixed pricing is the problem once again. If you understood how Rentals and rents are arrived at then you understand what is being said. If you don't why not try and figure it out. If you have to buff someone elses shoes for a living. (working) or having a jobbie. If you live in a financial system based entirely on loans and lending. (Private "Federal" reserve yes we lend cash today to banks (based on their stability) Governments. (if you protect us, our assets and get us more assets.) Just because you have to say "yes sir". Which to me isn't dignified, especially if your a grown up. Dosen't mean you can't plum the depths of a fixed price scheme and find out whats, what to get yourself the best deal.
The problem with most people. It's not that they are not nessesarly stupid. It's the fact that things are deliberatly made complicated for them. If I try to help and say look its fairly basic. You system is all loans. From the top down. Don't tie yourself into a pretzel trying to figure out "capitalism". See. Basically your dealing with some very slick people that use tried and true methods. To swindel you out of your labor in one way or another. They don't need cash. Cash is inert for all intensent purposes. Labor isn't. Neither are the basics food and shelter. Which forgive me the ole' south was based on. Pick my crops. I will feed you and shelter you. Your problem is the cash has you confused. Figure it more like credits they give you to go shopping with and pay your rent. Which "owning" a home is more like rent to own to me anyway. They take care of you good of course. Some of you even get to work in the "big house". Of course if you screw up you wind up back in the fields or at Wal-mart or even worse the soup kitchen. Your not taught how to sustain yourself or be self-sufficent. Therefore you live in fear of them. Because you don't know how to sustain yourself any other way but working for them getting credits and directions to their stores.
You don't believe it however these guys are sharks in the water. Fast, sleek, nice appearance. You'll never really feel it when they shear your leg off. Sharks have no conscience. Therefore your just another small meal in the ocean that just happens to be filled with some really big predators.
Now watch the clever assholes put up some commie backstop or survivalist backstop up for themsleves. Both just by coincidence contain elements of self reliance. Of course no one wants to smell a strangers armpits or be stuck out somewhere with a crazy person with a scattergun. See. Your being discouraged with nonsense. One day you'll understand they are fucking with you. See me even imparting this through a haze of being misunderstood by the people that would see me otherwise means they are fucking with me. I don't like that at all. So you can be a democrat a commie a repbulican a survivalist or even a christian muslim or morman. I don't believe in any of that bullshit. None of it. I'm more of a trading nature. I'm pretty sure your going to try to fuck me over in any deal we get into. So as you can see I'm into hard goods and assets. Not little paper rabbits or philosophy which is so fucking pointless that its way past ridiculous.
Semites are a trading, bartering people, We barter like a mofo. We deal in hard goods, assets, albiet our assets not someone elses (working for someone). Not commies. They don't want you to understand that. Because if you did well thats more like life really is. Not a loan scheme that seizes everyones labor. For those of you that turned us into commies or made people think that. We are waiting with a fucking rope. We will laugh and trade, barter, scream and sing and dance while you slowly twist in the wind. Cause we are out of our little paper bag. If we had a voice we would tell you. I guess now we do. Bless little Patrick and his Patrick.net. Know that your dealing with some really cold hearted, very clever MF's, that "own" some very clever people.
Another words there is no Middle eastern stock market for the most part. Thats a good way to get shot down there also. At least taken for a ride into the middle of nowhere without a map or directions. How backwards. No you only get backwards camera shots. Think about that for a while. Or set up your "muslim" backstop that new racist CATCH ALL that well means they all are they deserve to die or at least have everything taken away unless they capitulate. Yes all Semites aren't all, Hebrew. "Muslim" is a way to encapsulate them all. You would have them give up their trading bartering stupidity. Install a loan scheme similar to yours. Becoming sensless labor for whatever you need done on a daily basis. Forgetting how to get food UNLESS you supply it. That would be more to your liking I am sure.
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drtor says
The Fortress is where Apocalypsefuck lives. Duh. :-)
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iwog says
I remember that argument. It went like this "blah blah blah cause I say so blah blah blah". ;)
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Hey, it's good enough for the Pope.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
No it wasn't. It was an observation that homes selling today are the dregs while homes sold in 2009 during the panic were often high quality and recently remodeled. None of this would show up in the raw sales numbers.
Not a blah in there anywhere.
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iwog says
Thanks Iwog.
Btw I am still waiting for bottom, at least for mid-higher end properties. As I understand your argument you are saying that
A) prices are going up because inventories are low
B) inventories are low because construction is low
I agree with A). But I think B) is only a relatively small part of the story. Sales volume is only 1/3 of what it was during peak. IMO this is not primarily caused by lack of construction, the bigger issue is the banks sitting on properties and not wanting to recognize losses. At some point the properties will have to hit the market and then we could go lower. Or we could go sideways for a very long time if the banks are very patient.
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Iwog, are you still harping on those flawed Redfin charts? You do know that upward spike at the end of the graph is an error, don't you? You should know that because you pulled that same crap last year and got spanked for it in your own thread. Smoking weed is bad for your short-term memory.
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iwog says
I thought the C-S index measured sales of the same house?
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iwog says
Pure speculation on your part. blah blah...
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
My speculation is based on extensive experience in the Concord real estate market.
What's yours based on?
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Homeboy says
I think it's funny as hell that you created an alt just to troll my threads.
LOL
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dunnross says
That would be fine if every house sold every year, however since a home only sells every 7 years on average, Case-Shiller is useless if you're trying to characterize the 2009 market as being different than the 2011 or 2012 market.
During the bubble run up, there was plenty of money for remodels and upgrades. From 2006 onward, there was no money for remodels and upgrades.
It makes perfect sense that homes selling in 2009 would be higher quality than homes selling in 2012 if for no other reason than homes selling in 2012 have three more years of neglect on them.
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Unfortunately, there was never a panic.
The bank got trillions of dollars every year from Federal Reserve.
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wthrfrk80 says
The government's two primary constituencies are old people and the military.
BOTH of them will be taken care of, no matter what.
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xenogear3 says
Are you kididng me that you think there was never a panic?? It's incredible how quickly people forget.
Buffet loves to tell a story about how crazy things were--he made a trade during the panic where he agreed to give the other party LESS money in 6 months. Someone "invested" with him at a negative return. That's how insane it was.
Don't tell me there was no panic.
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thomas.wong1986 says
Funny thing of it is the public elementary schools in Boston and Cambridge are actually quite bad.
You the middle class, and anyone below are doomed to being wage slaves with whatever jobs are still left.
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iwog says
Seems the one-percenters and the rentier income class like yourself have expanded from areas to whole zips codes. You people will defend your greedy insular lives with deadly force, I'm sure of it.
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Mick Russom says
That is complete bullshit.
My wife and I don't have kids but the schools here in Danville/San Ramon (same school system) send kids to top drawer universities and very good state schools every year. Dublin and Pleasanton do the same thing. Fremont? You KNOW those kids do well. Their Indian and Asian immigrant parents wouldn't put up with anything else. If they bring home a bad report card, they know mom will beat the shit out of them.
Why do so many people here enjoy being victims? As I told Patrick awhile back when he was complaining about million dollar homes and condos in Menlo Park, even the dumbest guy knows to come in out of the rain.
I'd MUCH rather be the hammer than the nail.
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iwog says
I try not to speculate. I am aware that I can't even predict what my wife will want for breakfast tomorrow. The only thing I try to do is following where the numbers take me. Right now, they are not dancing up a party. More like a storm.
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iwog says
That's it? That's your response? So then I take it you don't deny that the charts are in error, and that you used them anyway even though this was pointed out in another thread of yours awhile back. Nice comeback, though. "Uh, you're a troll". Sure, whatever you say, Iwog.
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rootvg says
True that.
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Homeboy says
Tim Ellis from Redfin posted that it was the historical numbers that were inaccurate while the last data point on each graph was correct, and they were working on fixing it back in March 2011.
Furthermore the error only seemed to affect the listing prices and not the sales prices.
I still think it's funny as hell that you felt it necessary to create an alt just for me. I must have REALLY pissed you off at some point. Get over it.
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Mick Russom says
I was also going to comment on Cambridge, I was surprised that was mentioned as a "fortress" area. I lived in Cambridge for 5 years and incidentally visited a couple of weeks ago to run the marathon.
I can't comment on the public elementary schools but certainly I did not perceive Cambridge as a "fortress" area, at least not in its totality. There are many parts of Cambridge that are quite unattractive, old houses (in a bad way) and poor people causing trouble on the streets. We used to get news bulletins about various crimes all the time.
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iwog says
Don't know what you're talking about. You ALWAYS piss me off. Stop deflecting and stick to the subject.
So you DO remember, eh? Someone from Redfin SPECIFICALLY TOLD YOU that the "upward tilt" at the end of the graphs is false, yet you happily post them again the next year as if that upward tilt means something. And that is why you piss me off. You have no scruples whatsoever. I could possibly deal with an arrogant, bragging blowhard, but an arrogant, bragging blowhard who also LIES, pisses me off.
You have called the bottom over and over since 2008. You screamed that we all missed our chance in 2009, only to find that the price blip in 2010 was simply a temporary event related to the tax credit. Then at the end of 2010 you said prices were going up, here:
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=578859
But when prices continued their decline, you ex post facto changed the thread title, adding the words "(and back down)". What kind of slimeball edits the title of his thread after the fact to make it look like he wasn't wrong?
I have no doubt you will eventually be right. Prices WILL go back up at some point. But you will only be right in the way that a stopped clock is right twice a day.
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Homeboy says
How much of a scared little twit do you have to be to create an alt specifically to troll another poster on the board? I could never be you.
Homeboy says
I added the words because some idiot (not you of course) was being disingenuous about short term and long term price moves. If I remember correctly, I changed the words within a day or two of my original thread and only for clarification.
Homeboy says
Now you're lying, which isn't surprising from an anonymous alt who's terrified of being exposed. If you want to quote me, then actually find the thread and quote me. (like I just demonstrated)
The way you're doing it is the mark of a coward twice over. Once because you're hiding and twice because you never link anything I actually said.
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iwog says
Iwog, you must really be so full of yourself, that you lie blatantly, and don't even realize how full of sh*t you really are. The guy posts a link to your posting, and in the very next post, you say he never links what you actually say. You must not underestimate your fellow blogger's intelligence. They are much smarter than you are.
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dunnross says
He re-posted the same link I did. It doesn't show me calling a bottom over and over again nor does it show me claiming everyone missed a chance to buy in 2009. In fact he even got the Redfin story WRONG and I corrected it by linking what was actually said. (then he cited it wrong AGAiN)
I strive for clarity and honesty. Do you?
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iwog says
Name-calling seems to be all you've got. Guess we're not going to get you to actually address the subject. You like to throw the word troll around, but you have no idea what it means.
Uh, huh. I'm sure.
The search function only works back to 2009, which I'm sure you know. But here you are in 2010 saying that 2009 was the bottom:
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=29172
"I have a feeling that the "unemployment lags a recession 12-18 weeks" rule is going to be true this year and that 2009 is going to hold as the bottom of the general real estate market. I also think interest rates have finally turned the corner and will be heading up. "
Of course, 2009 did not hold as the bottom. You were wrong about interest rates, too. Can't wait to hear you try to weasel your way out of this one, though.
More name-calling. That's helpful. I've quoted you several times, and I am not hiding. I'm right here.
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Alamo, CA
I can't believe I just read this entire inane thread between you two, IWOG and Homeboy. Come on you guys, this is really painful.
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pedro3000 says
People will show their true colors when they have 100% of their wealth leveraged in a depreciating asset. Come back next year and see the insulting Iwog at his best. ;)
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Homeboy says
OMG how could I have said such a thing? Did you inform homeland security?
Homeboy says
You're sure huh?
http://patrick.net/forum/?s=2007
http://patrick.net/forum/?s=2006
http://patrick.net/forum/?s=crash
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
I don't know anyone with 100% of their wealth leveraged in a depreciating asset.
You DO understand that Homeboy is an alt created for no other reason than to troll my threads right? I treat everyone here with the same respect I'm given.
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The bubble is over. The data is irrefutable. That doesn't mean things can't still go down slowly, but the steep drop is done.
I really don't have a dog in this fight. I don't even live in the Bay Area, and I'm renting mainly for the freedom to move if necessary.
Regardless of the market, it's never smart to get into a huge amount of debt relative to one's income. If you can afford to buy a place in the Bay Area, (i.e. your income is $200k+) do it. If you can't, move someplace with a reasonable cost of living.
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iwog says
I quoted you as saying the bottom of the GENERAL real estate market was 2009, and you respond by posting a chart of the BAY AREA real estate market.
I had asked how you were going to try to weasel your way out of it. You sure don't disappoint.
You do know that Case/Shiller double dipped nationally, right? Please tell me you know that.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure. The handful of random posts you dug up notwithstanding, I cannot locate any of your posts before 2009. Of course, it would be simple to prove me wrong. Just post a link to something authored by YOU before 2009, and tell me how you located it.
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Homeboy says
I don't really care. I've never said my predictions are 100% accurate. I only say that my predictions are 100% better than those of you who have been predicting a crash every year since 2009. (that includes you)
Homeboy says
Why? I already proved how ridiculous your claim was. You even tried to imply I was foolish for pretending not to know about fake search limitations. Kinda sucks huh.
Patrick reset my screen name and post history in 2009. I don't know why. It had nothing to do with me nor does it have anything to do with the search engine being limited to 2009.
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Iwog,
Do you really have a life outside of Patrick.net?