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Still waiting for a bottom?


By iwog   Follow   Tue, 1 May 2012, 11:37pm PDT   26,493 views   246 comments   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

Not a good idea.

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David9   befriend   ignore   Wed, 9 May 2012, 7:57am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 167

PockyClipsNow says

Its appears we are at the bottom or really really close to it (maybe was last year, maybe was this or next year). BUT this is all predicated on super low mortgage rates staying at or near current levels forever.

Fannie Mae made a profit today and one reason was 'higher prices'

http://marketday.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/09/11616640-fannie-mae-doesnt-need-taxpayer-aid-for-1st-time-in-about-4-years?lite

To me, this just validates everything has been fixed all along. Yeah, interest rates, remaining shadow inventory, etc., but how can you predict when you are not in the board room?

PockyClipsNow   befriend   ignore   Wed, 9 May 2012, 8:26am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 168

of course its all fixed. has been forever.

the government creates ALL bubbles and ALL crashes via policy. in fact you cant even own RE without a stable government in place to draw up lot lines and record titles so government even CREATES real estate ownership to start with.

freak80   befriend   ignore   Wed, 9 May 2012, 12:21pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 169

Nationally the bubble is mostly deflated, according to Case-Shiller:

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

hanera   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 2:26am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 170

wthrfrk80 says

Nationally the bubble is mostly deflated, according to Case-Shiller:

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

Nationally, inflation-adjusted price could continue to decrease for a couple of years but in nominal term, prices in some neighborhoods have started to increase. This is normal. Better neighborhoods always lead the price appreciation.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 2:52am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 171

PockyClipsNow says

the government creates ALL bubbles and ALL crashes via policy.

Another tired argument that's already been proven to be false.

At best, government policy had a minor effect. More likely it had next to no effect.

Homeboy   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 4:41pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 172

iwog says

Homeboy says

I contradicted EVERYTHING you said.

iwog says

- There was no data error for sales prices. Ever.

So you're insisting that the sales price graphs are wrong even when

Redfin confirmed they are accurate? Lets take these one at a time so the bullshit is crystal clear. What information do you have that the sales price figures are wrong?

What are you smoking, duck? The SALES prices in those charts took a little dip at the beginning of the year and came up again not much more than to the LOWEST level of the previous year. What do you think that proves?

Are you arguing that it's o.k. to post charts with misleading data errors if only PART of the chart is wrong? Um... it shouldn't have ANY errors, genius. If you were told that ANY of the data is wrong, and you do not know for a fact that the algorithm has been corrected, it is dishonest to continue to use that source as if nothing is wrong.

Do I really have to explain this to you? Holy shit...

Homeboy   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 4:44pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 173

TechGromit says

I can't help wonder if some people will insist the housing market hasn't bottomed yet at the peak of the Next housing bubble. :)

Still. Not. Getting. It.

I never said it hasn't bottomed. I'm saying that whether it has or has not is in no way related to any argument Iwog has made. He ALWAYS says the market is at the bottom. When he's finally right, it will only be through sheer luck.

"Daffodils are yellow because dogs pee on them."

"No, that's not the reason they are yellow."

"I can't believe you don't think daffodils are yellow."

Homeboy   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 4:48pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 174

tatupu70 says

PockyClipsNow says

the government creates ALL bubbles and ALL crashes via policy.

Another tired argument that's already been proven to be false.

At best, government policy had a minor effect. More likely it had next to no effect.

I'd love to see this "proof" that the government had nothing to do with the housing bubble. I love good comedy.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 9:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 175

Homeboy says

I'd love to see this "proof" that the government had nothing to do with the housing bubble. I love good comedy

You're right--proven to be wrong was a poor word choice.

Let me ask which government policy(ies) do you think are to blame for the housing bubble. I can't debunk it until you say which ones are the culprits.

tatupu70   befriend   ignore   Thu, 10 May 2012, 9:23pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 176

Homeboy says

He ALWAYS says the market is at the bottom. When he's finally right, it will only be through sheer luck.

That's a boldface lie. He called a bottom in 2009 and has consistently maintained that it will be the ultimate bottom. Now you are making a big deal about how prices have gone down 1-2% below their 2009 bottom. Whoop de do. Personally, I think he's right that prices have pretty much been flat since then. The tax credit had an effect. Seasonality has an effect. But overall, they've been pretty flat.

Homeboy   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 10:38am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 177

tatupu70 says

Homeboy says

He ALWAYS says the market is at the bottom. When he's finally right, it will only be through sheer luck.

That's a boldface lie. He called a bottom in 2009 and has consistently maintained that it will be the ultimate bottom. Now you are making a big deal about how prices have gone down 1-2% below their 2009 bottom. Whoop de do. Personally, I think he's right that prices have pretty much been flat since then. The tax credit had an effect. Seasonality has an effect. But overall, they've been pretty flat.

What do you mean *I* am making a big deal? I am not the one who has started thread after thread for the last few years bragging about making a killing in real estate and taunting everyone else with some bullshit that they "missed the bottom". Face it - you guys thought 2009 was the bottom and gloated about your belief that everyone else "missed" it, and you were wrong.

Homeboy   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 10:39am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 178

tatupu70 says

You're right--proven to be wrong was a poor word choice.

Apology accepted.

freak80   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 11:50am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 179

Should flame wars between bulls and bears be confined to the markets? It seems pointless to argue over something that can't really be proven except in hindsight.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 12:40pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 180

wthrfrk80 says

Should flame wars between bulls and bears be confined to the markets? It seems pointless to argue over something that can't really be proven except in hindsight.

Homeboy will never admit being a bear. Although he believed the market would continue to crash through 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, he'll never admit it. Instead he just changed his screen name to avoid the ol search engine.

Anyway I'm wrong plenty, I admit it, and don't worry about it.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 12:45pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 181

iwog says

Homeboy will never admit being a bear. Although he believed the market would continue to crash through 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, he'll never admit it. Instead he just changed his screen name to avoid the ol search engine.

Anyway I'm wrong plenty, I admit it, and don't worry about it.

Homeboy had no reason to change his screen name, because the prices did crash through 2009, 2010, 2011 & 2012. And, he had no reason to admit anything, because, he was right. However, iwog was wrong about prices not crashing since 2009, and, being the hard-headed parrot that he is, just won't admit that he is wrong.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 12:48pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 182

dunnross says

Homeboy had no reason to change his screen name, because the prices did crash through 2009, 2010, 2011 & 2012. And, he had no reason to admit anything, because, he was right.

Then explain how he's pretending to quote me from 2008 when he's got a 2010 join date. I know you're a mess dunross, but even you can see how absurd this is.

(btw he only posts in my threads too. LOL)

dunnross says

However, iwog was wrong about prices not crashing since 2009, and, being the hard-headed parrot that he is, just won't admit that he is wrong.

The above graph has absolutely nothing to do with home prices.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 12:54pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 183

iwog says

The above graph has absolutely nothing to do with home prices.

Sure it does. A lower mortgage payment for 30 years actually means more for buyer than a lower house price. It means, that a buyer now, will only be 1/2 the debt slave he could have been, if he bought back in 2006.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 12:57pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 184

dunnross says

Sure it does. A lower mortgage payment for 30 years actually means more for buyer than a lower house price. It means, that a buyer now, will only be 1/2 the debt slave he could have been, if he bought back in 2006.

Except it doesn't mean that at all and you're just making up shit again. A mortgage payment graph ONLY tracks debt and interest rates and has nothing whatsoever to do with prices.

Interest rates have been declining and mortgage balances have been getting paid off as loans are being written on cheaper post-crash houses.

Seriously Dunross, some of the stuff you come out with (1975 nominal prices for homes) should embarrass the hell out of you.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 1:03pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 185

iwog says

Except it doesn't mean that at all and you're just making up shit again. A mortgage payment graph ONLY tracks debt and interest rates and has nothing whatsoever to do with prices.

If you call basic 5th grade math - just making things up, then you much dumber than I thought:

2006: $1200/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $432,000
2012: $600/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $216,000

So, professor Iwog - tell me which one would you rather have?

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 1:22pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 186

dunnross says

If you call basic 5th grade math - just making things up, then you much dumber than I thought:

2006: $1200/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $432,000
2012: $600/mo * 12mo/year * 30yrs = $216,000

So, professor Iwog - tell me which one would you rather have?

Why do you think this has ANYTHING whatsoever to do with your graph?????

Why do you think the crash in price in your example happened from 2009-2012 instead of 2006-2009????? In fact it probably DID get financed in 2009 or 2010 because it got foreclosed on in 2008 and didn't hit the market again until 2009!!!

That TOTALLY disconnects payments from home prices.

Do you even remember what point you were trying to make?

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 1:33pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 187

iwog says

In fact it probably DID get financed in 2009 or 2010 because it got foreclosed on in 2008 and didn't hit the market again until 2009!!!

Iwog, these are not mortgage payments which are currently outstanding, but mortgage payments which a new buyer commits themselves to. This comes straight out of NAR's data. In fact, according to NAR, even Bay Area new mortgage payment is already 64% below the cycle peak of 2007, and my graph also shows similar data. Therefore, a buyer who buys now, is signing up for 64% less in mortgage payment than a buyer, back in 2007.

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 1:38pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 188

dunnross says

Iwog, these are not mortgage payments which are currently outstanding, but mortgage payments which a new buyer commits themselves to.

So fricken what? The lag time between the start of a foreclosure process and the end sale of a new house along with a new mortgage was TWO YEARS!!!!!!!!!

How the hell are mortgage payments supposed to track HOME VALUES if there's a two year lag time between the payment of a loan in foreclosure and the new mortgage?

Explain it to me. I think this is way over your head and I'm not trying to be mean.

dunnross   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 1:57pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 189

iwog says

How the hell are mortgage payments supposed to track HOME VALUES if there's a two year lag time between the payment of a loan in foreclosure and the new mortgage?

Iwog, you are a BS'er aren't you. You tell me how the payment of a loan in foreclosure, has anything to do with a payment which a new buyer is committing to, right now. I think you've definitely lost it, now, not that you've had any kind of a brain, before.

freak80   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 3:34pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 190

I couldn't help but notice it's "Duck vs. Duck", hehe...

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sat, 12 May 2012, 4:11pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 191

wthrfrk80 says

I couldn't help but notice it's "Duck vs. Duck", hehe...

Dunross thought he was being clever. His icon is supposed to represent me. (notice the hands choking) It's actually a goose but we wont tell him. ; )

You're new here, but when I said 2009 was the bottom, a few people lost their marbles.

RentingForHalfTheCost   befriend   ignore   Sun, 13 May 2012, 7:30am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 192

iwog says

wthrfrk80 says

I couldn't help but notice it's "Duck vs. Duck", hehe...

Dunross thought he was being clever. His icon is supposed to represent me. (notice the hands choking) It's actually a goose but we wont tell him. ; )

You're new here, but when I said 2009 was the bottom, a few people lost their marbles.

2009 was the bottom alright. The bottom of the free equity train. Down we go from here. Enjoy the ride. Concord will be especially hard hit. Just wait until 2013-2014. It will be fun to see who is around here and who just stops posting. I suspect the bears will be still here and the bulls will be asking about foreclosure details. ;)

iwog   befriend   ignore   Sun, 13 May 2012, 7:36am PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 193

RentingForHalfTheCost says

2009 was the bottom alright. The bottom of the free equity train. Down we go from here. Enjoy the ride. Concord will be especially hard hit. Just wait until 2013-2014. It will be fun to see who is around here and who just stops posting. I suspect the bears will be still here and the bulls will be asking about foreclosure details. ;)

You're also new here. You missed the choice comments where I was going to be financially raped and disappear from the board by the end of 2009, 2010, and 2011 because of a brutal resumption of the real estate crash.

Those people either left the site or created alternate identities like homeboy. Are you going to be here in 2014 to defend your prediction?

freak80   befriend   ignore   Sun, 13 May 2012, 12:29pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 194

I'd bet on the guy who's a landlord/ property investor. He's the one with skin in the game.

Nationally, it looks like the property bubble is mostly deflated. Some worry about "overshoot" on the way down, but historically the last two "bubbles" didn't have much overshoot. It's hard to "short" real-estate like you can with stocks.

Where I live the point is moot. It's the rust belt and the bubble never hit here at all. The natural gas boom has hit the rental market of course. So many workers want temporary living (they need to be able to move at the drop of a hat). Here the price-to-rent ratio screams "buy buy buy" if you plan to stay here for several years.

freak80   befriend   ignore   Sun, 13 May 2012, 12:29pm PDT   Share   Quote   Like   Dislike     Comment 195

iwog says

It's actually a goose but we wont tell him. ; )

Duck, Duck, Goose!

Homeboy   befriend