Not a good idea.

Still waiting for a bottom?
By iwog Follow Wed, 2 May 2012, 6:37am 20,294 views 261 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549
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Bigsby says
Don't know what it would sell for, not my 'hood.... go click on the Zillow link..... is it worth $317K today??? I have no idea...
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B.A.C.A.H. says
....until you want to sell it......
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Ross, CA
Realtors Are Clowns says
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Monterey, CA
Call it Crazy says
Then you cannot claim a 37% price decline.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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Homeboy says
If I would have waited, I'd only have 3 homes on that street instead of four.
I dollar cost averaged into real estate by buying in Dec. 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. I now own a total of 9 properties and my total positive cash flow for 2011 was $35,000. not including equity gain on the mortgages. I expect this to rise this year because of rising rents while my costs remained fixed.
I did it exactly right. Buying everything in a single year would have been stupid. If you want to nitpick my worst home purchase, feel free, but understand how dishonest it is to paint an investment picture with a single property when there are 8 others.
Also understand that I don't hide on this board. I have the same screen name as I did in 2007. I own all my successes and my failures. That's what makes me different than you. You hide behind an alt because you're scared of being wrong.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
A common misconception. The house market is actually nothing at all like the stock market in that regard. The stock market might fluctuate wildly from one day to the next, but the house market takes years to make a large move. So no, the timing of the purchase and the price makes a HUGE difference.
In the example we're talking about, Iwog bought a house in 2007 and paid $318K for it. If he had waited anywhere between 1 - 4 years, he would have saved as much as $119K. So he would have the rental income PLUS $119K. Why would you say that's unimportant? What part of it aren't you understanding?
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Homeboy says
The only way this doesn't sound like a steaming pile of shit is if you can tell the future.
Can you tell the future homeboy?
Apparently not since you sold gold at $800. Oh yes, I do remember. I know who you are and I know why you changed your screen name so many times.
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iwog says
That's just silly. You could still buy 4 homes, just a bit later. I don't know why you say such ridiculous things, Iwog.
Dollar cost averaging in the real estate market is stupid when prices still have a long way to fall.
How is saving 37% stupid?
Again you are obfuscating. YOU were whining about PAST comments that you were going to be financially "raped". I searched your posts to find when you referenced that event. You yourself wrote that it related to your 2007 purchase. I am merely responding to your own comments. I did not choose the topic.
But that's just it. You DON'T own your failures. You deny them, lie about them, and always insist that you're right, even when you aren't. You even re-post things that were shown to be wrong as if they were right.
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Homeboy says
yes it does. If you are investing for "appreciation" instead of income. If you are investing for income, it does not.
Sorry, Homes.
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iwog says
It's sad that you have to resort to lies. You obviously have backpedaled as far as you can go, and now realize your position is indefensible, so now you're just making up nonsense that has nothing to do with the topic. And no, I have never bought or sold gold. In fact, I find your rants about gold tedious and uninteresting.
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iwog says
Just kidding right? Owned 9 properties? Dealing with tenants would be a full-time job. Depending on the neighborhood and how much you'd paid, some houses are still 30%-40% below the 2007 peak despite current "bubbly" prices.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
That is utter nonsense. Why would you pay more for something than you need to? Money is money.
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Homeboy says
Because we are human, so we cannot "time" things perfectly. If you are claiming that you are better than human then I think you are BLASPHEMING, Homes.
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Homeboy says
Have to agree with Homeboy. Purchase price does matter even for stocks, asked those owning BAC, C and whatever safe dividend-paying stocks.
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wthrfrk80 says
So I guess people don't actually READ threads. You just kind of skim, form a false impression, and then attack, huh?
For the third time now, this is a quote of what Iwog wrote in 2009:
Please try to read it. Don't get sleepy and let your eyes glaze over, m'kay?
In Iwog's OWN WORDS, there was a "firestorm" of people warning him that he would lose money. That was in 2007. That was not hindsight; it was FOREsight.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
Well now you're changing your argument. First you said it doesn't matter; now you are saying it can't be helped. Those are not the same thing.
Besides, you can still time things without doing it perfectly. I waited until this year to buy a house, and I bought it for 40% below what it sold for previously. I don't know if I timed it "perfectly", but I certainly could have done a lot worse if I had thought timing didn't matter at all.
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Homeboy says
Can anyone explain the fallacy of this to Homeboy? He's a tad bit confused.
Homeboy says
Sure you did. Because random trolls who change their screen name to hide always tell the truth.
Homeboy says
One example please? Just one? Not from your rage-filled memory clouded with anger, but from one of my threads. Should be easy right?
Homeboy says
I haven't lost a penny on that house.
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Madison, WI
Here in the midwest their is no bottom, but we have some jobs so people will buy homes. Lotta first timers who have lots to learn, but also many investors who don't, they'll turn all these homes into rental dumps, cause that's how they roll. I'm sitting in a home I could buy for half price of what my next door neighbors paid. I can still rent for not much more than the property taxes on this place. Plenty of investment money around, plenty who left town but kept the home/condo and rented it through property managers then they sit empty because high rents were promised. As investors keep climbing aboard they form a bottom all their own and will just create more value problems we will see later. I've been talking to some condo people and they are saying the renting rules are really relaxed, they don't want to pay more HOA.
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Homeboy,
I just don't understand why you're so worried about what a stranger on the internet (Iwog) does with his money. If Iwog isn't smart with his money, he'll simply go out of business and eventually go broke. How does that affect you?
Maybe it's just the "argument clinic" effect. Having arguments for their own sake can be mentally stimulating, yes.
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bmwman91 says
I believe I know who this is, but I don't want to speculate. This is not the first time this incident happens. The writing style and arguments gave away the person behind the new screen name. :)
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Realtors Are Clowns says
From Iwog's posts I gather that he buys properties for their long term cash flow (rents) and not speculation (flipping). He's an investor, not a speculator.
If Iwog is buying at grossly inflated prices then rents won't cover purchase prices and he'll eventually go broke. How does that affect you? He's not encouraging regular folks to buy houses to live in. He's a landlord not a realtor, as far as I can tell.
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Corning, NY
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Dude, get a job.
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Corning, NY
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You should get a job as a Realtor.
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hanera says
I'm glad you and hoping many believe this is true. Same as iwog, I'm current managing 9 rentals of my own, one for a friend, and one more next month. It's hardly a full-time job unless you're a cheap-ass landlord. Some tenants will mail me a rent check monthly. The rest, I make my round and go pick up on the 1st Saturday of the month. Say I spend 1/2 day a month to go pick up rents & 1/2 day a month to handle a call or two and take care of issues. That's hardly a full-time job, but it pays very well. It actually is a steady stream of income for years to come.
How to become a millionaire? Borrow a million dollars from the bank and have someone pay it off. That's the business model. Of course there will be minor issues along the way, but I get pay to solve problems so I don't mind. I know it's a boring business, but the pay is not bad. Each rental currently nets about $500/month. It's kind of like an annuity, but it comes with the phone calls here and there. As long as you have a good licensed contractor to help you take care of issues along the way, you're set. I have a fantastic one if you need a referral. :)
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hanera says
Concord and the outer towns topped out and started their decline sooner than the Bay Area. Although he was a little early on his initial purchase, that property is currently worth about 90% of where he bought it. He could've done better, but investing in hindsight is very profitable. Those that shorted Lehman Brothers and long AAPL told me that. :)
The fact that iwog is still here speaks volume. Many bears and bulls came and gone on this site, but he's still here quacking away. How fun would this site be without iwog and AZrob?
There was a very intelligent gentleman on this site. His screen name was zephyr. Some morons on this site kept mocking him, and he left the site. This is a huge loss for this forum in my opinion. Too many people on this site speak with their emotion rather than providing constructive ideas and argument.
Not that many people give credit to iwog, but he lays all his cards out there. Many love to be a Monday night quarterback, but when asked what's your next move?......... Here comes the silent................ Of course it's much easier to criticize others and claim yourself to be correct when you don't put any of your cards on the table.
Cheers. :)
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iwog says
I see you again have no response. Just empty sarcasm. I do appreciate the huge balls you have to refer to your mistake as "dollar cost averaging", though. Har.
Again, you got nothing except name-calling, obfuscation, and lies. This is pathetic, Iwog. Don't you have anything of substance to write?
At least I have the decency to patiently explain to you why your arguments are wrong, and provide examples. All you can muster is "YOU'RE A LIAR. YOU CHANGED YOUR SCREEN NAME!!! OH, THE HORROR."
This is hilarious. Your post here is utterly devoid of meaningful content, yet you are claiming I don't give examples. I have given examples all over this thread. Not only that, I often have to give the examples 3 times because people don't even look at them when I post them.
Specious argument. If you had waited a couple years, or even one year, you would have paid much less for a house. Sorry, but your lame "dollar cost averaging" argument is silly. I wouldn't care that you made a mistake if you would just "own your mistake", as you put it. But you don't. In 2009, you brazenly held it up as an example of how great you think you are, and of how wrong your detractors supposedly were. You are still trying to paint it as some sort of "success" - even going out of your way to do so.
I'm just amazed that you seem to have some staunch defenders here. There are a lot of people like me who are sick of your constant permabull nonsense, but there actually seem to be a few who are in love with you. Go figure. I don't know how anyone could read your posts and do anything but laugh.
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wthrfrk80 says
I DON'T care. This all started with me simply informing the forum that Iwog was re-posting Redfin charts when a Redfin employee told the forum last year that those charts have a data error. Iwog didn't seem to feel it necessary to mention the error, so I did.
Everything else was brought up BY IWOG (usually in the context of calling me names), and I have simply responded to what he has written. I'm sure you would like me to cower from the mighty Iwog like a frightened animal, but I assure you that is not going to happen.
I mean, I don't get it. Iwog taunts me with accusations that I allegedly don't post any examples, and then I get this shit from you getting UPSET when I post examples. Guess you can't win around here, huh?
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It just sounds like two people personally attacking each other rather than productive debate.
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Homeboy says
Homey,
It can't be helped and it doesn't matter anyway.
It can't be helped, you're crowing that you are smarter and better at your timing than investors like iwog and eman. But even that doesn't matter because investors like eman and iwog are investing for income, not appreciation which is not investing but speculating anyway.
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wthrfrk80 says
I'm sure it does. That's because Iwog is making this personal, doing a lot of name-calling, and bringing up a lot of irrelevant stuff. The only subject I initiated was Iwog using charts that were shown to be inaccurate last year. Everything else has been brought up by Iwog. I am merely responding.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
So I busted you on changing your argument, and you personally attack me. Nice.
I have no idea what you're talking about. If anyone is "crowing", it is Iwog. Constantly. I don't get why you and tatupu have such a boner for Iwog.
This is going nowhere. 2 people now have explained to you that the amount you pay for an investment DOES matter (not to mention that is simply common sense). All you are doing now is continuing to say, "No it doesn't, no it doesn't". This is not very interesting. I really have better things to do than listen to you say the same thing over and over with no reasoning to back it up.
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iwog says
LOL! as i see above .. you certainly got a lot of flack for saying this.. hope you enjoy! FWIW... still a lot of downward correction due this side of BA....
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Homeboy says
Common Sense has left SF BA long ago.. today, it all about hustling and pimping ripping off the next guy with overpriced everything...and its not the banks or wall street.. its the guy/gal standing next to you ready to pinch your wallet.
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robertoaribas's website
I read this site to sharpen my thinking... and to see what is new about the upcoming cannibal anarchy. As I finish going "all in" on rental properties, sometimes the bears on here make me paranoid, and I do more research:
So, i counted all the NTR (notice of trustee sales) filed in maricopa county in the last 30 days... 4600. Nothing special to see here, with about 2000 foreclosing, half bought by investors at the auction, and half going back to the banks. the other half get cancelled, due to a short sale or whatever...
In a market with 7000 or so sales a month, and inventory dwindling, buyers bidding over list price and multiple offers on anything remotely close to a good deal, simply put, nothing is really going to slow down this market unless something changes... The next six months or so, guaranteed, prices are going up...
Seems many areas of the BA are seeing similar markets, and the market relies on supply and demand, perceptions of what you think the market should be don't matter at all.
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robertoaribas says
Bears,
You may want to read it again from this Bull. :)
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robertoaribas says
amen!
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Homes, it's like buying an annuity. It's all about the income. I don't drink all their Cool Aid either but we have to respect that not everyone is all about the mark to market on every asset.
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robertoaribas says
"Simply put, nothing is really going to slow down X unless Y changes: therefore, the next six months or so, guaranteed, X will not slow down."
or,
"I *guarantee* you that this surgery will be successful, unless something happens and then it isn't."
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10x is definitely going to happen, and will be profited by those who love their families or free enterprise, unless something completely unpredictable and unforeseen by any human or super-human happens, in which case buying will be an even better opportunity.
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B.A.C.A.H. says
No, it's not like buying an annuity.
If the price doesn't matter at all, would you pay double the asking price for a house, just because you felt like it? If the price truly doesn't matter, your answer would have to be "yes". Does that make sense?
You are being completely illogical.