Still waiting for a bottom?


By iwog   Follow   Wed, 2 May 2012, 6:37am   21,749 views   246 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

Not a good idea.

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  1. iwog


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    127   6:42am Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    People will show their true colors when they have 100% of their wealth leveraged in a depreciating asset. Come back next year and see the insulting Iwog at his best. ;)

    I don't know anyone with 100% of their wealth leveraged in a depreciating asset.

    You DO understand that Homeboy is an alt created for no other reason than to troll my threads right? I treat everyone here with the same respect I'm given.

  2. freak80


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    128   6:52am Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The bubble is over. The data is irrefutable. That doesn't mean things can't still go down slowly, but the steep drop is done.

    I really don't have a dog in this fight. I don't even live in the Bay Area, and I'm renting mainly for the freedom to move if necessary.

    Regardless of the market, it's never smart to get into a huge amount of debt relative to one's income. If you can afford to buy a place in the Bay Area, (i.e. your income is $200k+) do it. If you can't, move someplace with a reasonable cost of living.

  3. Homeboy


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    129   11:11am Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    (Iwog): "I have a feeling that the "unemployment lags a recession 12-18 weeks" rule is going to be true this year and that 2009 is going to hold as the bottom of the general real estate market. I also think interest rates have finally turned the corner and will be heading up. "

    (Me): Of course, 2009 did not hold as the bottom. You were wrong about interest rates, too. Can't wait to hear you try to weasel your way out of this one, though.

    (Iwog):OMG how could I have said such a thing? Did you inform homeland security?

    I quoted you as saying the bottom of the GENERAL real estate market was 2009, and you respond by posting a chart of the BAY AREA real estate market.

    I had asked how you were going to try to weasel your way out of it. You sure don't disappoint.

    You do know that Case/Shiller double dipped nationally, right? Please tell me you know that.

    Homeboy says

    The search function only works back to 2009, which I'm sure you know.

    You're sure huh?

    http://patrick.net/forum/?s=2007
    http://patrick.net/forum/?s=2006
    http://patrick.net/forum/?s=crash

    Yeah, I'm pretty sure. The handful of random posts you dug up notwithstanding, I cannot locate any of your posts before 2009. Of course, it would be simple to prove me wrong. Just post a link to something authored by YOU before 2009, and tell me how you located it.

  4. iwog


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    130   11:20am Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Homeboy says

    You do know that Case/Shiller double dipped nationally, right? Please tell me you know that.

    I don't really care. I've never said my predictions are 100% accurate. I only say that my predictions are 100% better than those of you who have been predicting a crash every year since 2009. (that includes you)

    Homeboy says

    Yeah, I'm pretty sure. The handful of random posts you dug up notwithstanding, I cannot locate any of your posts before 2009. Of course, it would be simple to prove me wrong. Just post a link to something authored by YOU before 2009, and tell me how you located it.

    Why? I already proved how ridiculous your claim was. You even tried to imply I was foolish for pretending not to know about fake search limitations. Kinda sucks huh.

    Patrick reset my screen name and post history in 2009. I don't know why. It had nothing to do with me nor does it have anything to do with the search engine being limited to 2009.

  5. Nobody


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    131   1:04pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Iwog,

    Do you really have a life outside of Patrick.net?

  6. gregpfielding


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    132   1:06pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Homeboy says

    You have called the bottom over and over since 2008.

    2008 probably was the bottom for Concord - especially the least-expensive single family homes. By the end of 2008/start of 2009, the foreclosures had dried up and low-end prices have come up quite a bit.

  7. bubblesitter


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    133   1:46pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    gregpfielding says

    especially the least-expensive single family homes.

    This - that is why he is complaining about being outbid so many times cuz investors won't buy a 1 mil $ home in cash to rent it out or flip for quick bucks.

  8. iwog


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    134   4:46pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Nobody says

    Iwog,

    Do you really have a life outside of Patrick.net?

    Yes and it's clothing optional.

  9. Homeboy


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    135   9:48pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    I don't really care. I've never said my predictions are 100% accurate. I only say that my predictions are 100% better than those of you who have been predicting a crash every year since 2009. (that includes you)

    You've outdone yourself this time. You called me a lying coward for my TRUE statement that you have called the bottom more than once. You challenged me to find a post where you did so, which I did (no small feat considering that the search engine is unsophisticated). And your only response to that is "I've never said my predictions are 100% accurate". How about, "Gee you're right, I DID call the bottom before when it WASN'T the bottom - sorry I called you a liar and a coward".

    This is what you ALWAYS do. Whenever anyone calls you out on your bullshit, you backpedal like a madman, hurl insults, and obfuscate all over the place.

    Homeboy says

    Yeah, I'm pretty sure. The handful of random posts you dug up notwithstanding, I cannot locate any of your posts before 2009. Of course, it would be simple to prove me wrong. Just post a link to something authored by YOU before 2009, and tell me how you located it.

    (Iwog):Why? I already proved how ridiculous your claim was. You even tried to imply I was foolish for pretending not to know about fake search limitations. Kinda sucks huh.

    Patrick reset my screen name and post history in 2009. I don't know why. It had nothing to do with me nor does it have anything to do with the search engine being limited to 2009.

    It wasn't just you, a lot of stuff got reset. Just as an example, user elliemae shows as having joined the same year as you, and also doesn't show any posts prior to 2009. And really, who the hell cares about your nitpicking? The POINT is that it is impossible to prove or disprove anything you posted before 2009. Why do we have to go through this ridiculous obfuscation when we are both saying basically the same thing - that your posts before 2009 are not available? Once again, Iwog pretending to score some meaningless debating "victory". How ridiculous.

  10. Homeboy


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    136   10:02pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    gregpfielding says

    iwog says

    Homeboy says

    You have called the bottom over and over since 2008.

    2008 probably was the bottom for Concord - especially the least-expensive single family homes. By the end of 2008/start of 2009, the foreclosures had dried up and low-end prices have come up quite a bit.

    East Bay Real Estate Agent and Blogger

    False. If you check the Dataquick city price charts for each year, which can be done by searching archived copies of those webpages, you get, for Concord, CA:

    '08 $311K
    '09 $242K
    '10 $250K
    '11 $227K

    Quick math quiz: Which one of those prices is the lowest?

    Unless Concord is in opposite-land, '08 appears to be the highest of the four years, not the lowest.

  11. bmwman91


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    137   10:02pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    Yes and it's clothing optional.

    To show off your awesome tattoo?

    Waiting for that "bottom" aaaaawww yeaaaaahhhhhhhh!

  12. Homeboy


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    138   10:20pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    You DO understand that Homeboy is an alt created for no other reason than to troll my threads right? I treat everyone here with the same respect I'm given.

    Which of the following behaviors fits the definition of "troll"?

    1. Pointing out that another poster has called the bottom of the real estate market multiple times, and providing links to instances of such.

    2. Posting links to random, irrelevant posts from 2007 just to "prove" that the search engine works, while knowing full well that your posts from before 2009 are not searchable.

    3. First claiming you didn't call the bottom, then when proof is provided that you did, claiming you were correct in calling the bottom. Then when it's pointed out that you are using a Bay Area only chart to prove a bottom for the "general" real estate market, shrugging it off by saying your predictions aren't 100% accurate.

  13. thomas.wong1986


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    139   11:22pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    Yes and it's clothing optional.

    Sorry Red White and Blue off Highway 1 has been closed.

  14. thomas.wong1986


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    140   11:28pm Mon 7 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Regardless of the market, it's never smart to get into a huge amount of debt relative to one's income. If you can afford to buy a place in the Bay Area, (i.e. your income is $200k+) do it. If you can't, move someplace with a reasonable cost of living.

    This wasnt ever about mortgage instruments...
    it wasnt about if someone didnt have the right income or job...

    This has been, ever since 1997-98, about prices...

    Prices are going down to normal levels, that even normal people with normal income can afford a decent home. This is the California we all knew pre-1997.

  15. freak80


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    141   5:48am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    Prices are going down to normal levels, that even normal people with normal income can afford a decent home. This is the California we all knew pre-1997.

    That won't happen until we get a pre-1997 monetary policy.

    I'm not betting that the spigot of free-money from the Fed will dry up soon. "Supply side economics" is the ruling dogma.

    Fed -> banks, Fannie & Freddie -> CA RE
    Fed -> banks -> Silicon Valley startups/IPOs -> CA RE
    Fed -> banks -> China "companies" -> Chinese -> CA RE

  16. iwog


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    142   8:21am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Homeboy says

    This is what you ALWAYS do. Whenever anyone calls you out on your bullshit

    You're not calling me on my bullshit. I love to be called on my bullshit. I often write things in such a way as to BEG people to provide support, pull up old threads, or whatever is necessary to get them to actually have a real conversation. You failed.

    Homeboy says

    It wasn't just you, a lot of stuff got reset. Just as an example, user elliemae shows as having joined the same year as you, and also doesn't show any posts prior to 2009. And really, who the hell cares about your nitpicking? The POINT is that it is impossible to prove or disprove anything you posted before 2009. Why do we have to go through this ridiculous obfuscation when we are both saying basically the same thing - that your posts before 2009 are not available? Once again, Iwog pretending to score some meaningless debating "victory". How ridiculous.

    Okay this is just sad. Get some help. Seriously.

  17. freak80


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    143   8:30am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Sheesh, what's the point of fighting over future prices? It's all basically betting. Iwog is betting one way, Homeboy is betting the other way. Just normal Bulls and Bears doing their thing. Or Ducks and Bears in this case.

  18. freak80


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    144   8:31am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Yes and it's clothing optional.

    It must be painful plucking out all of those feathers. Ouch!

  19. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    145   8:33am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Ducks and bears. Hehehehe.

  20. iwog


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    146   8:42am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    thomas.wong1986 says

    Prices are going down to normal levels, that even normal people with normal income can afford a decent home. This is the California we all knew pre-1997.

    Your definition of "afford a decent home" doesn't match anywhere else in the world. The lines on your beloved graph for fortress areas are never going to cross again.

  21. iwog


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    147   8:43am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Sheesh, what's the point of fighting over future prices? It's all basically betting. Iwog is betting one way, Homeboy is betting the other way. Just normal Bulls and Bears doing their thing. Or Ducks and Bears in this case.

    Homeboy likes to make every conversation about me personally, which is ridiculous because I make a boring topic.

  22. Homeboy


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    148   11:13am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    You're not calling me on my bullshit. I love to be called on my bullshit. I often write things in such a way as to BEG people to provide support, pull up old threads, or whatever is necessary to get them to actually have a real conversation. You failed.

    No, I succeeded.

    Yes, you beg people to provide support. Then when they do, you call them names, change the subject, and hurl insults. Why don't you try sticking to the subject for a change? The subject is: I said you have called the bottom multiple times. You denied it, and called me an "alt" (whatever that is), a liar, a troll, "sad", etc. Then when I proved it, you quickly changed the subject. Where is this "real conversation" you claim to want? You have spent an inordinate amount of time calling me names and insulting me, but continue to duck the issue (pun intended).

    Okay this is just sad. Get some help. Seriously.

    Yes, it is sad. It's sad that when you knew perfectly well that your posts from before 2009 were not searchable, you wasted everyone's time linking to some random irrelevant posts just to pretend to score some imaginary debating point. You are obsessed with winning (or imagining that you have won).

  23. iwog


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    149   11:19am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    See what I mean? Someone forward this guy the name of a good anger management therapist.

    Homeboy says

    and called me an "alt" (whatever that is)

    ROFLOL!

  24. Homeboy


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    150   11:21am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    wthrfrk80 says

    Sheesh, what's the point of fighting over future prices? It's all basically betting. Iwog is betting one way, Homeboy is betting the other way. Just normal Bulls and Bears doing their thing. Or Ducks and Bears in this case.

    I'm not fighting over future prices. Like I said, Iwog will be right eventually, but only in the way a stopped clock is right twice a day. This is about the Redfin charts. Iwog posted Redfin charts last year in another thread, claiming the upward spike at the end was an indicator that prices were going to go up. Someone from Redfin posted in the thread and informed us that the upward spike was the result of a data error, and was a known problem for those charts.

    Then Iwog posted the SAME Redfin charts this year, and didn't say anything about the data error. You may have lost the point due to all of Iwog's obfuscation. You can see he's still just calling me names rather than addressing the issue.

    So was I supposed to just let that go? "O.K., it's cool if you want to use data that you know is flawed to prove your point".

  25. freak80


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    151   11:22am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I don't even remember what you guys were fighting about. Was it about whether the RE market will go up or down? I guess only time will tell who is correct.

  26. Homeboy


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    152   11:25am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)  

    wthrfrk80 says

    I don't even remember what you guys were fighting about. Was it about whether the RE market will go up or down? I guess only time will tell who is correct.

    I will repeat it for you:

    Iwog posted Redfin charts last year in another thread, claiming the upward spike at the end was an indicator that prices were going to go up. Someone from Redfin posted in the thread and informed us that the upward spike was the result of a data error, and was a known problem for those charts.

    Then Iwog posted the SAME Redfin charts this year, and didn't say anything about the data error.

    Troll.

  27. iwog


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    153   11:42am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Homeboy says

    Someone from Redfin posted in the thread and informed us that the upward spike was the result of a data error, and was a known problem for those charts.

    - There was no data error for sales prices. Ever. You keep omitting this because you're dishonest.

    - The post by Refin came from me, not you. You were too incompetent to find it so I helped you.

    - The last data point, as confirmed by Redfin, is accurate. Furthermore Tim Ellis said they were working on a fix in March of 2011. Every time homeboy says "this is a known problem for these charts" he's guessing without the slightest idea if it has been fixed or not.

  28. iwog


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    154   11:52am Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Based on a chart I saved from 4/16/12 and the current chart for Contra Costa County, I'm pretty sure the problem with the Redfin charts was fixed. Both show the same graph with the same numbers.

    The 4/16/12 chart shows a final value of $204 per sq. ft., the chart at the top of this thread on 4/30/12 shows $206 per sq. ft., and the current chart shows a final value of $214 per sq. ft. That's a significant increase for 3 weeks. ALL OF THESE NUMBERS ARE CORRECT ACCORDING TO REDFIN.

  29. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    155   2:14pm Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    Redfin data is listed in the fiction section of the NY Times book review.

  30. Homeboy


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    156   10:23pm Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

    Redfin data is listed in the fiction section of the NY Times book review.

    ROFLMAO!!!!!

  31. Homeboy


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    157   11:00pm Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Homeboy says

    Someone from Redfin posted in the thread and informed us that the upward spike was the result of a data error, and was a known problem for those charts.

    - There was no data error for sales prices. Ever. You keep omitting this because you're dishonest.

    - The post by Refin came from me, not you. You were too incompetent to find it so I helped you.

    - The last data point, as confirmed by Redfin, is accurate. Furthermore Tim Ellis said they were working on a fix in March of 2011. Every time homeboy says "this is a known problem for these charts" he's guessing without the slightest idea if it has been fixed or not.

    Pathetic. Truly pathetic.

  32. rooemoore


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    158   11:47pm Tue 8 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

  33. thomas.wong1986


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    159   12:26am Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    iwog says

    Your definition of "afford a decent home" doesn't match anywhere else in the world. The lines on your beloved graph for fortress areas are never going to cross again.

    Its happened before will happen again.. you mean even Beverly Hills didnt correct down by 40% in early 90s..

  34. iwog


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    160   5:08am Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Homeboy says

    Pathetic. Truly pathetic.

    Cornered?

    I defy you to contradict a single thing I said.

  35. Homeboy


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    161   10:54am Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Homeboy says

    Pathetic. Truly pathetic.

    Cornered?

    I defy you to contradict a single thing I said.

    I contradicted EVERYTHING you said. I believe your response was that I should seek an anger management counselor. Guess you were already "cornered", eh?

    Your previous post is just angry rambling. Nothing to contradict there. Just pathetic nonsense. You posted charts and assumed they were correct because you had no idea if Redfin had fixed the problem? And you expect a response to that other than "pathetic"? I think I'd rather spend my time refuting the Unabomber treatise.

  36. APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch


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    162   10:58am Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Redfin is the MAD Magazine of trade data outlets.

  37. iwog


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    163   11:52am Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Homeboy says

    I contradicted EVERYTHING you said.

    iwog says

    - There was no data error for sales prices. Ever.

    So you're insisting that the sales price graphs are wrong even when
    Redfin confirmed they are accurate? Lets take these one at a time so the bullshit is crystal clear. What information do you have that the sales price figures are wrong?

  38. TechGromit


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    164   1:15pm Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I can't help wonder if some people will insist the housing market hasn't bottomed yet at the peak of the Next housing bubble. :)

  39. SubOink


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    165   1:55pm Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    TechGromit says

    I can't help wonder if some people will insist the housing market hasn't bottomed yet at the peak of the Next housing bubble. :)

    LOL.

  40. PockyClipsNow


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    166   2:38pm Wed 9 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Its appears we are at the bottom or really really close to it (maybe was last year, maybe was this or next year). BUT this is all predicated on super low mortgage rates staying at or near current levels forever.

    I'm pretty sure no one can predict iterest rates. RE people will always predict 'rates will be higher in the future' to get a sale, but rates have been going straight down since 1980, espcecailly after the 911 attack they went down. Mortagage could in fact be in the 1% range in a few years. People are getting 2.7% mortgages this year.

    I would predict rates to only go down from here based on trend from 1980 to now.

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