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So the FB IPO Is Tomorrow...Predictions & Trash Talk

By bmwman91   Follow   Thu, 17 May 2012, 11:04am   5,273 views   50 comments
In Mountain View CA 94043   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.

OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.

@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation

And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.

I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.

Cheers!

Most Liked Comments

1. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,153 comments Premium

   1   4:01pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike   Zuckertard has a face that gives you real joy to shit on, indicative as it is of a completely vacant, grasping clown.

2. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

   2   12:39pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   xenogear3 says Facebook has 800 million active users? The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access. Correction: active accounts, NOT users. I have 4 facebook accounts already. - One has me as a 28 years old hacker and bodybuilder that has over 2000 friends - One has me as a 19 years old student that drinks heavily and gets money from the parents to survive - Another I am a 40 years old mother of 2 that was recently divorced but wealthy. - And the last is suppose to be the truth, but like everything I do I lie repeatedly just to confuse the directed ads. :)

3. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 48 threads 480 comments Roslyn, NY

   3   1:57pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Who cares? Fuck facebook. I can't wait for this company to become like AOL. It's so useless & produces nothing that spectacular which makes it worth billions. I am also sick & tired of the media always talking about how fucking wonderful facebook is. FUCK YOU MARK... you stole someone else's idea & even their fucking programming software code for the website. You are not the next Bill Gates. You are just a dumb piece of fuck who stole everything & claimed it as your own. At least Bill added on to something & then turned it into something great. Facebook is the most dumbest fucking website & completely pointless. The ad service conversion is horrible. Advertisers are not making much ROI compared to Google. Hardly any ROI. Facebook will probably be bought off & financed by the CIA to steal your personal information & to invade the privacy of you peasants. If you own Facebook stock, sell out! If you hold a facebook account, stop using it now & delete it! I have never hated any businessmen more than I hate Mark. All he has Accomplished is nothing but a pathetic little fucking gimmick of a site which is somehow "innovation"... I can't wait for him and his company to go completely bankrupt. No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money.

4. lisalisa Follow Befriend 1 threads 79 comments New Lenox, IL

   4   4:41am Wed 23 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   I fail to understand the culture. I fail to understand why a piece of software on some china built machines, with a bunch of storage is worth so much. "I'm out..."

5. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

   5   1:35pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I'll just be happy when it's over, so I can stop seeing the headlines about Fakebook. A more pointless "investment" it is difficult for me to imagine. I have a Fakebook account, which I begrudgingly check every 6 months or so. And every time I do, I'm reminded why I hate it. You are not my "friend" if you haven't visited or at least picked up the phone and called me in the last year sorry!

6. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

   6   2:50pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I bet Iwog will be be shorting FB out of the gates.

7. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 448 comments Campbell, CA

   7   8:09pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   GS pump and dump.

8. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 48 threads 480 comments Roslyn, NY

   8   2:27am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   rockyroad says Robber Baron Elite Scum says No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money. you sound bitter. You sound like a sucker.

9. citizen jpp Follow Befriend 30 comments Wallingford, PA

   9   5:11am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   If Facebook is worth 16 billion, Patrick.net should be valued at least a couple hundred million...

10. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    10   9:55am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Robber Baron Elite Scum says And that is exactly our problem. Those companies have produced something of immense value which has completely changed the world in so many ways in business, education & technology. Especially Microsoft & Google. So, you are saying that Words with Friends and Farmville have no value? Agreed. FB's product is users and they will wander away as fast as they came in. Anyone feeling nostalgic over MySpace or AOL yet?

11. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    11   10:38am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   drew_eckhardt says It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year. No it hasnt.. FB is the byproduct of 50 years of REAL tech innovation related to SW, Semis, and Storage. The three S's is what changed everthing. FB is a toy for idiots to fondle with.

12. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,525 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    12   10:47am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy?

13. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    13   11:24am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   $40 a share puts it at a market capitalization for FB at $109B Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)? BP $117B MCD $91B ABT $96B GSK $109B MRK $114B VZ $117B

14. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,759 comments

    14   1:13pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577411903118364314.html There is serious manipulation going on to prevent facebook from falling below it's IPO.

15. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    15   1:43pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   CL says NorCalBear says Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)? The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face. my teevee is broken like that too... ;-)

16. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    16   3:07pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)

17. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,525 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    17   3:54pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?

18. wbblair3 Follow Befriend 2 threads 94 comments

    18   8:35am Sat 19 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   About valuations: FB Facebook Inc , Mkt Cap 81.74B (began at 110B), 2011 profits 1B, 2012 profits less than 1B (projected), Mkt Cap/Profits ~82 GOOG Google Inc, Mkt Cap 195.75B, 2011 profits 37.9B, Mkt Cap/Profits ~5 After the FB fizzle on Friday, I have just a tad bit more respect for market buyers who can apparently recognize a dot.bomb "valuation" when they see it. They are going to have fun keeping this _turd_ afloat at $38 for the remaining 1.6B shares left to sell, more than twice the total number sold thus far.

19. permanent_marker Follow Befriend (1) 71 threads 230 comments Mountain View, CA Premium

    19   1:11pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   i say initial frenzy... every 'etrade pro' is clamoring to get in. we will never hear the end of it in CNBC ..etc What I am hoping is: 3 months later, stock deflates... and this goes the way of Zynga / Groupon. enough hype already.

20. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 1,996 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    20   1:18pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   FB will be bought out by Yahoo after the horrible crash when the insiders liquidate.