Patrick.net

So the FB IPO Is Tomorrow...Predictions & Trash Talk

By bmwman91   Follow   Thu, 17 May 2012, 11:04am   5,276 views   50 comments
In Mountain View CA 94043   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.

OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.

@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation

And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.

I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.

Cheers!

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1. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 448 comments Campbell, CA

   11   8:09pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   GS pump and dump.

2. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

   12   8:11pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I don't think it will up 100+%. The size is huge (400 million shares, or $16 billions). I am disappointed that the whole market is down this week. I expect the broken try to build up the hype early this week.

3. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

   13   9:18pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Patrick says The mechanics of it are still a little obscure to me. I think what really happens tomorrow is that earlier investors (the underwriters) get to dump their stock on the public (later investors) at $38/share. The company itself won't be selling any stock tomorrow. Correct me if I'm wrong. yes, in short they are distributors. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwriting

4. rockyroad Follow Befriend 1 threads 54 comments

   14   9:45pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Robber Baron Elite Scum says No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money. you sound bitter.

5. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 48 threads 480 comments Roslyn, NY

   15   2:27am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   rockyroad says Robber Baron Elite Scum says No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money. you sound bitter. You sound like a sucker.

6. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

   16   4:29am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me. This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc).

7. citizen jpp Follow Befriend 30 comments Wallingford, PA

   17   5:11am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   If Facebook is worth 16 billion, Patrick.net should be valued at least a couple hundred million...

8. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

   18   5:30am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Facebook is worth $100+ billion. $16 billion is the IPO size. Both are US record during its IPO.

9. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 48 threads 480 comments Roslyn, NY

   19   5:39am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me. This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc). And that is exactly our problem. Those companies have produced something of immense value which has completely changed the world in so many ways in business, education & technology. Especially Microsoft & Google. But has Facebook really contributed? Nothing. It hasn't introduced anything new. It hasn't innovated any special technology which completely changing the world. All it has done is create a chat service. Millions of other sites including dating sites have the same basic technology. It is all hype, speculation & misguided optimism. Facebook is a horrible long-term investment as the company will NEVER reach the heights of Google or Microsoft. It is just another classic pump & dump corporation. History repeats itself. The tech .com boom & bust in the 90's is the same thing happening with Facebook.

10. Robber Baron Elite Scum Follow Befriend (3) 48 threads 480 comments Roslyn, NY

    20   5:45am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says Facebook is worth $100+ billion. $16 billion is the IPO size. Both are US record during its IPO. Be fearful... Facebook produces nothing that valuable & what it does provide is just intangible. A very big bubble is forming & it is going to collapse big time.

11. xenogear3 Follow Befriend 10 threads 419 comments

    21   7:01am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Facebook has 800 million active users? The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access.

12. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    22   9:55am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Robber Baron Elite Scum says And that is exactly our problem. Those companies have produced something of immense value which has completely changed the world in so many ways in business, education & technology. Especially Microsoft & Google. So, you are saying that Words with Friends and Farmville have no value? Agreed. FB's product is users and they will wander away as fast as they came in. Anyone feeling nostalgic over MySpace or AOL yet?

13. drew_eckhardt Follow Befriend (1) 2 threads 324 comments Sunnyvale, CA

    23   10:08am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Robber Baron Elite Scum says But has Facebook really contributed? It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year. Before Facebook social media was for kids. In the age of Face Book 22% of the average user's on-line time is with social media Nothing. It hasn't introduced anything new. It hasn't innovated any special technology which completely changing the world. The overwhelming majority of tech startups are nothing really new, just solid engineering combined with some business acumen, competent marketing, decent sales, some schmoozing, and some luck. One bad business decision is all that separates going out of business with the VCs getting back 4M out of 20 and a 360M exit on 160M of investment+debt and fizzling where your competitor IPOs to a 2B market cap. Facebook seems to have avoided that and if they don't continue to do so it won't matter for everyone who cashed out.

14. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    24   10:35am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   xenogear3 says The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me. This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc). Even Roger Mcnamee, as do many others in finance see it... its alot of hype and emotions. If you have the experience and maturity, you understand this.. if not.. you have a lot to learn.

15. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    25   10:38am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   drew_eckhardt says It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year. No it hasnt.. FB is the byproduct of 50 years of REAL tech innovation related to SW, Semis, and Storage. The three S's is what changed everthing. FB is a toy for idiots to fondle with.

16. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,526 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    26   10:47am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy?

17. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    27   11:02am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bmwman91 says Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. guy at the office piped CNBC this morning ...here is the short on the reaction by CNBC staff at open... Shock it didnt open higher... 50-60-70 per share Confused why its falling. whats going on ? Fear as it approached 38. WTF! This isnt what many expected (hype) Some are going to have a stiff drink after trading hours... Watch what happens after 3pm est

18. tiny tina Follow Befriend 2 threads 175 comments

    28   11:15am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   bmwman91 says Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy? I'd chalk this one up as another Y2K. Waah waah... For some reason my limit order was never triggered, so when I finally got in this morning, I just canceled it. It certainly did not have the momentum I was expecting. Maybe the offering was just too big.

19. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 247 threads 4,687 comments

    29   11:18am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   rockyroad says Robber Baron Elite Scum says No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money. you sound bitter. Well could you cite an example of a productive billions of dollars company?

20. zzyzzx Follow Befriend (9) 412 threads 4,116 comments Baltimore, MD

    30   11:22am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   So far I am underwhelmed at the Facebook IPO stock performance.

21. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    31   11:24am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   $40 a share puts it at a market capitalization for FB at $109B Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)? BP $117B MCD $91B ABT $96B GSK $109B MRK $114B VZ $117B

22. CL Follow Befriend (12) 140 threads 1,355 comments Emeryville, CA

    32   11:28am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   NorCalBear says Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)? The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face.

23. Vicente Follow Befriend (8) 203 threads 4,403 comments Davis, CA

    33   11:43am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Hilarious. Any crows eaten on air? Don't have a TV.

24. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    34   12:39pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   xenogear3 says Facebook has 800 million active users? The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access. Correction: active accounts, NOT users. I have 4 facebook accounts already. - One has me as a 28 years old hacker and bodybuilder that has over 2000 friends - One has me as a 19 years old student that drinks heavily and gets money from the parents to survive - Another I am a 40 years old mother of 2 that was recently divorced but wealthy. - And the last is suppose to be the truth, but like everything I do I lie repeatedly just to confuse the directed ads. :)

25. EBGuy Follow Befriend 4 threads 2,095 comments

    35   12:51pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   It looks like it was priced right and the company was able to maximize the amount of capital it raised. For all intents and purposes, FB stock had already been trading on a closed market. Insiders were responsible of over 50% of the shares being offered in the IPO. For comparison, when Amazon and Yahoo went public, 0% of the insiders sold. I predict cannibal anarchy in the last 5 minutes until close when Zuck offers to sell personal profiles of users in an attempt to juice the stock and appease the underwriters.

26. FortWayne Follow Befriend (13) 102 threads 3,762 comments

    36   1:13pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577411903118364314.html There is serious manipulation going on to prevent facebook from falling below it's IPO.

27. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    37   1:43pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   CL says NorCalBear says Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)? The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face. my teevee is broken like that too... ;-)

28. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    38   3:07pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)

29. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,526 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    39   3:54pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?

30. zzyzzx Follow Befriend (9) 412 threads 4,116 comments Baltimore, MD

    40   4:22pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   At least the volume was impressive.

31. NorCalBear Follow Befriend 2 threads 27 comments Pleasanton, CA

    41   4:24pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   RentingForHalfTheCost says FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;) bmwman91 says LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in? Predictions, particularly abut the future, are hard, but were I more of a gambler I would certainly short FB. However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent". I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.

32. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,526 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    42   5:24pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   NorCalBear says However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent". I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance. Me too, me too......

33. RentingForHalfTheCost Follow Befriend (8) 38 threads 2,001 comments Pleasanton, CA Premium

    43   5:44am Sat 19 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/story/2012-05-18/should-investors-buy-facebook/55066206/1

34. wbblair3 Follow Befriend 2 threads 94 comments

    44   8:35am Sat 19 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   About valuations: FB Facebook Inc , Mkt Cap 81.74B (began at 110B), 2011 profits 1B, 2012 profits less than 1B (projected), Mkt Cap/Profits ~82 GOOG Google Inc, Mkt Cap 195.75B, 2011 profits 37.9B, Mkt Cap/Profits ~5 After the FB fizzle on Friday, I have just a tad bit more respect for market buyers who can apparently recognize a dot.bomb "valuation" when they see it. They are going to have fun keeping this _turd_ afloat at $38 for the remaining 1.6B shares left to sell, more than twice the total number sold thus far.

35. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,526 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    45   1:45pm Mon 21 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Well, it is down 11% to $34. AAPL is up almost 6%. Were people REALLY selling AAPL to buy FB, and are now flocking back?

36. zzyzzx Follow Befriend (9) 412 threads 4,116 comments Baltimore, MD

    46   1:38pm Tue 22 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.

37. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,526 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    47   9:50pm Tue 22 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   zzyzzx says I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time. If I had a million dollars........I'd do two chicks at the same time.

38. lisalisa Follow Befriend 1 threads 79 comments New Lenox, IL

    48   4:41am Wed 23 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   I fail to understand the culture. I fail to understand why a piece of software on some china built machines, with a bunch of storage is worth so much. "I'm out..."

39. CrazyMan Follow Befriend 448 comments Campbell, CA

    49   10:02pm Wed 23 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CrazyMan says GS pump and dump. Just gunna go ahead and quote that right there.

40. thunderlips11 Follow Befriend (13) 50 threads 2,626 comments Premium

    50   12:00pm Thu 24 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Screw this investing shit. I'm just gonna place "Small, Classified Ads" like Don Lepree.

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