So the FB IPO Is Tomorrow...Predictions & Trash Talk


By bmwman91   Follow   Thu, 17 May 2012, 11:04am   5,533 views   50 comments
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According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.

OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.

@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation

And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.

I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.

Cheers!

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  1. CrazyMan


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    11   8:09pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    GS pump and dump.

  2. xenogear3


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    12   8:11pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I don't think it will up 100+%.
    The size is huge (400 million shares, or $16 billions).

    I am disappointed that the whole market is down this week.
    I expect the broken try to build up the hype early this week.

  3. thomas.wong1986


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    13   9:18pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Patrick says

    The mechanics of it are still a little obscure to me. I think what really happens tomorrow is that earlier investors (the underwriters) get to dump their stock on the public (later investors) at $38/share. The company itself won't be selling any stock tomorrow. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    yes, in short they are distributors.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwriting

  4. rockyroad


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    14   9:45pm Thu 17 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Robber Baron Elite Scum says

    No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money.

    you sound bitter.

  5. Robber Baron Elite Scum


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    15   2:27am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    rockyroad says

    Robber Baron Elite Scum says

    No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money.

    you sound bitter.

    You sound like a sucker.

  6. xenogear3


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    16   4:29am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me.

    This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc).

  7. citizen jpp


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    17   5:11am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    If Facebook is worth 16 billion, Patrick.net should be valued at least a couple hundred million...

  8. xenogear3


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    18   5:30am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Facebook is worth $100+ billion.
    $16 billion is the IPO size.

    Both are US record during its IPO.

  9. Robber Baron Elite Scum


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    19   5:39am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    xenogear3 says

    The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me.

    This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc).

    And that is exactly our problem. Those companies have produced something of immense value which has completely changed the world in so many ways in business, education & technology. Especially Microsoft & Google.

    But has Facebook really contributed? Nothing. It hasn't introduced anything new. It hasn't innovated any special technology which completely changing the world.

    All it has done is create a chat service. Millions of other sites including dating sites have the same basic technology.

    It is all hype, speculation & misguided optimism. Facebook is a horrible long-term investment as the company will NEVER reach the heights of Google or Microsoft.

    It is just another classic pump & dump corporation. History repeats itself. The tech .com boom & bust in the 90's is the same thing happening with Facebook.

  10. Robber Baron Elite Scum


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    20   5:45am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    xenogear3 says

    Facebook is worth $100+ billion.

    $16 billion is the IPO size.

    Both are US record during its IPO.

    Be fearful...

    Facebook produces nothing that valuable & what it does provide is just intangible.

    A very big bubble is forming & it is going to collapse big time.

  11. xenogear3


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    21   7:01am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Facebook has 800 million active users?

    The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access.

  12. NorCalBear


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    22   9:55am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Robber Baron Elite Scum says

    And that is exactly our problem. Those companies have produced something of immense value which has completely changed the world in so many ways in business, education & technology. Especially Microsoft & Google.

    So, you are saying that Words with Friends and Farmville have no value?

    Agreed.

    FB's product is users and they will wander away as fast as they came in.

    Anyone feeling nostalgic over MySpace or AOL yet?

  13. drew_eckhardt


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    23   10:08am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Robber Baron Elite Scum says

    But has Facebook really contributed?

    It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year. Before Facebook social media was for kids. In the age of Face Book 22% of the average user's on-line time is with social media

    Nothing. It hasn't introduced anything new. It hasn't innovated any special technology which completely changing the world.

    The overwhelming majority of tech startups are nothing really new, just solid engineering combined with some business acumen, competent marketing, decent sales, some schmoozing, and some luck.

    One bad business decision is all that separates going out of business with the VCs getting back 4M out of 20 and a 360M exit on 160M of investment+debt and fizzling where your competitor IPOs to a 2B market cap.

    Facebook seems to have avoided that and if they don't continue to do so it won't matter for everyone who cashed out.

  14. thomas.wong1986


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    24   10:35am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    xenogear3 says

    The amount of hate and bitter just amaze me.
    This IPO is bigger than the TOTAL of all tech stocks (Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Ebay, etc).

    Even Roger Mcnamee, as do many others in finance see it... its alot of hype and emotions. If you have the experience and maturity, you understand this.. if not.. you have a lot to learn.

  15. thomas.wong1986


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    25   10:38am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    drew_eckhardt says

    It's changed the way nearly a billion people use the internet with a current ARR over $4,000,000,000 a year.

    No it hasnt.. FB is the byproduct of 50 years of REAL tech innovation related to SW, Semis, and Storage. The three S's is what changed everthing. FB is a toy for idiots to fondle with.

  16. bmwman91


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    26   10:47am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy?

  17. thomas.wong1986


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    27   11:02am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now.

    guy at the office piped CNBC this morning ...here is the short on the reaction by CNBC staff at open...

    Shock it didnt open higher... 50-60-70 per share
    Confused why its falling. whats going on ?
    Fear as it approached 38. WTF!

    This isnt what many expected (hype)
    Some are going to have a stiff drink after trading hours...

    Watch what happens after 3pm est

  18. tiny tina


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    28   11:15am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    Man, aaaaaaand this is why I don't gamble on stocks. Had I loaded up at opening, I would be pretty unhappy about now. Seeing as how everyone was probably trying that, and the NASDAQ seems to be having technical difficulties (lol)...the price is remarkably steady. What was with the huge dip shortly after opening...all the folks with non-locked options dumping like crazy?

    I'd chalk this one up as another Y2K. Waah waah...

    For some reason my limit order was never triggered, so when I finally got in this morning, I just canceled it. It certainly did not have the momentum I was expecting. Maybe the offering was just too big.

  19. CaptainShuddup


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    29   11:18am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)  

    rockyroad says

    Robber Baron Elite Scum says

    No company has ever managed to produce nothing while be worth billions of dollars. Facebook WILL crash... And many investors will lose all their money.

    you sound bitter.

    Well could you cite an example of a productive billions of dollars company?

  20. zzyzzx


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    30   11:22am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    So far I am underwhelmed at the Facebook IPO stock performance.

  21. NorCalBear


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    31   11:24am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    $40 a share puts it at a market capitalization for FB at $109B

    Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)?

    BP $117B
    MCD $91B
    ABT $96B
    GSK $109B
    MRK $114B
    VZ $117B

  22. CL


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    32   11:28am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    NorCalBear says

    Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)?

    The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face.

  23. Vicente


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    33   11:43am Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Hilarious. Any crows eaten on air? Don't have a TV.

  24. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    34   12:39pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike  

    xenogear3 says

    Facebook has 800 million active users?

    The whole world only has 6 billion people. Not everyone has internet access.

    Correction: active accounts, NOT users. I have 4 facebook accounts already.

    - One has me as a 28 years old hacker and bodybuilder that has over 2000 friends

    - One has me as a 19 years old student that drinks heavily and gets money from the parents to survive

    - Another I am a 40 years old mother of 2 that was recently divorced but wealthy.

    - And the last is suppose to be the truth, but like everything I do I lie repeatedly just to confuse the directed ads.

    :)

  25. EBGuy


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    35   12:51pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    It looks like it was priced right and the company was able to maximize the amount of capital it raised. For all intents and purposes, FB stock had already been trading on a closed market. Insiders were responsible of over 50% of the shares being offered in the IPO. For comparison, when Amazon and Yahoo went public, 0% of the insiders sold.

    I predict cannibal anarchy in the last 5 minutes until close when Zuck offers to sell personal profiles of users in an attempt to juice the stock and appease the underwriters.

  26. FortWayne


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    36   1:13pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577411903118364314.html

    There is serious manipulation going on to prevent facebook from falling below it's IPO.

  27. NorCalBear


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    37   1:43pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    CL says

    NorCalBear says

    Can anyone tell me with a straight face that FB is in the same league as these companies (and they pay dividends)?

    The man on the teevees told me so. He had a straight face.

    my teevee is broken like that too... ;-)

  28. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    38   3:07pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)

  29. bmwman91


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    39   3:54pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?

  30. zzyzzx


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    40   4:22pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    At least the volume was impressive.

  31. NorCalBear


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    41   4:24pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    RentingForHalfTheCost says

    FB to hit $20ish by end of next week, then sit in the teens for months. Greatest short in the history of the market! If I had a BA house I would refi and take out some of the funny money to do this short. I would then have enough to move to China and seek out a good education for my kids. ;)

    bmwman91 says

    LOL well, my initial guesses were so f***ing far off...which is exactly why I don't gamble with stocks. GS & MS must be shitting bricks right now considering how much stock they had to buy back to prop up the price at $38. Will they unload on Monday, or hold-out hoping for muppet masses to go all-in?

    Predictions, particularly abut the future, are hard, but were I more of a gambler I would certainly short FB.

    However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".

    I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.

  32. bmwman91


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    42   5:24pm Fri 18 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    NorCalBear says

    However, before I took out a HELOC to cover that short, I'd remember the Keynesian quote, something like "Markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".

    I am a pebble in this hurricane, but I'm watching the FB train wreck from safe a distance.

    Me too, me too......

  33. RentingForHalfTheCost


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    43   5:44am Sat 19 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  
  34. wbblair3


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    44   8:35am Sat 19 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    About valuations:

    FB Facebook Inc , Mkt Cap 81.74B (began at 110B), 2011 profits 1B, 2012 profits less than 1B (projected), Mkt Cap/Profits ~82

    GOOG Google Inc, Mkt Cap 195.75B, 2011 profits 37.9B, Mkt Cap/Profits ~5

    After the FB fizzle on Friday, I have just a tad bit more respect for market buyers who can apparently recognize a dot.bomb "valuation" when they see it. They are going to have fun keeping this _turd_ afloat at $38 for the remaining 1.6B shares left to sell, more than twice the total number sold thus far.

  35. bmwman91


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    45   1:45pm Mon 21 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Well, it is down 11% to $34. AAPL is up almost 6%. Were people REALLY selling AAPL to buy FB, and are now flocking back?

  36. zzyzzx


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    46   1:38pm Tue 22 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.

  37. bmwman91


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    47   9:50pm Tue 22 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    zzyzzx says

    I think it's pretty funny to see that guy who took his money and left the country. He's probably doing 2 chicks at once every day while watching FB stock drop and laughing the whole time.

    If I had a million dollars........I'd do two chicks at the same time.

  38. lisalisa


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    48   4:41am Wed 23 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    I fail to understand the culture. I fail to understand why a piece of software on some china built machines, with a bunch of storage is worth so much.

    "I'm out..."

  39. CrazyMan


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    49   10:02pm Wed 23 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    CrazyMan says

    GS pump and dump.

    Just gunna go ahead and quote that right there.

  40. thunderlips11


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    50   12:00pm Thu 24 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected  

    Screw this investing shit.

    I'm just gonna place "Small, Classified Ads" like Don Lepree.

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