Good article. All the vectors point up now. There's really nothing left to cause further declines except a shadow inventory that is looking more and more like Bigfoot.
http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/04/09/signs-of-real-estate-recovery/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/616751-11-more-hard-facts-about-the-housing-recovery

Watch
Follow
Befriend (12)
140 threads
1,355 comments
Emeryville, CA
tiny tina says
Close. I bought in '06.
I want to see why houses bought would cost more (or less) today, either compared to inflation or the bubble, or had the bubble never been.
Seems like the numbers are still high, but I don't see how consumers would sustain these prices under all the negative pressure.
iwog says
What do we see on pre-owned homes? Are they sold out? Back to bubble sales numbers?
Shiller said it'll drop through next year? What did he overlook?
Follow
Befriend
21 threads
135 comments
ArtimusMaxtor says
I know, they're probably right out of the 1920's when this type of home was very popular! I call them "sheet music" houses because many like them adorned the covers of popular songs of that era!
http://www.amazon.com/Theres-Little-White-House-Green/dp/B003E7HSWE
http://www.amazon.com/Kentucky-Perfect-Ballad-Ukulele-Accompaniment/dp/B004HCNX7Y
Follow
Befriend
14 threads
1,493 comments
Bigsby says
For $500, "What is schizophrenia?"
Follow
Befriend (4)
992 threads
1,125 comments
San Antonio, TX
jvolstad's website
Patrick says
Can you imagine what that place smells like at dinner time? Talk about your Chinese food!
Follow
Befriend (7)
37 threads
1,539 comments
Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
Premium
Vicente says
This is my observation as well. It would seem that my parents' generation (boomers) is desperately looking for somewhere to put & grow their money as retirement is supposed to be starting in the next 5-10 years. Their 401k's are of unknown future value, at least for those that actually utilized them, the stock market is a casino, savings interest rates are a complete joke and sovereign debt concerns have them weary of treasuries & bonds. The only thing that seems obvious at this point is that people need somewhere to live, and that you can get them to pay you for it if you can get a hold on some properties. I don't blame them for snatching everything up to try to band-aid their lack of financial planning for retirement, and general distrust of "traditional" investment vehicles. I am really skeptical of how well things will work out for this group, but I guess we'll see. It is sort of amusing, in a sick way of course, to see my parents' generation basically razing the economic landscape to maintain their current quality of life and put it into a condition that leaves their children poised to live with a lower quality of life. In a way this is good...we are spoiled as a nation, and my generation could use a little hardship to get their priorities realigned. Those of us that know how to scrimp and live well below our means won't really have any issues, but those that don't will be mighty unhappy (hell, they already are).
Follow
Befriend (1)
22 threads
471 comments
San Jose, CA
bmwman91 says
You are absolutely right. This is definitely one of the reason people run to buy houses. Stock market is no more a playground for retailer investors. Only big players are able to rakes some money from this system. Mutual funds take their fees first and whatever left passes to small investors. Gold lost its luster. Commodities and currency market is for very limited number of investors. The most popular CD between average Joe’s gives hopeless return.
Many happen to be real estate investors however, do not realize that RE investing/landlording is not for everybody as well. They don’t know how to calculate true holding costs, risk associate or valuation technics. They follow crowd by walking through mines field.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
iwog says
after several months of declines a POP in sales/price to cheer about.. yes you have ONE month to cheer about. Enjoy it!
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
2,498 comments
Vicente says
I believe you meant US havens. There are plenty of places to invest beyond the border. Do it now, I think currency controls are coming eventually.
Follow
Befriend (1)
22 threads
471 comments
San Jose, CA
bob2356 says
Oh yes, Chinese, Brazilian or British took this advice seriously. They are investing in US real estate now.
Follow
Befriend (2)
7 threads
530 comments
Belmont, CA
Iwog, whose income looks more like Rmoney's than anyone else, is trying to tell us all to do the facebook thing and buy an albatross house.
Or pay him extortionary rent.
Jobs are bad, market stinks, IPOs arent producing anything, companies like Dell and HP are about to be gutted by the likes of Hua Wei.
Things stink, bad, and to cause another housing bubble because we are out of ways to scam up other bubbles is criminal.
Follow
Befriend (2)
7 threads
530 comments
Belmont, CA
iwog says
Greed machine. No end how much you want the cost of living to eat into our paychecks. Guess what, ponzi man, the more it costs the less money we have in a consumer based economy. Figure out how that ends, genius.
Follow
Befriend (28)
171 threads
4,214 comments
Premium
Mick Russom says
Why do you hate prosperity?
Follow
Befriend (5)
10 threads
2,329 comments
APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says
Because life without prosperity is so interesting.
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
REpro says
Gold is only down 20% and it lost it's luster. Housing has lost 35% and it's still in vogue. This is the kind of talk which tells me that gold has a lot more to go on the upside, where housing has a lot more to go on the downside.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
dunnross says
On what plane of reality is a 35% dead drop "still in vogue"?
Can we dispense with the silly language please? Real estate was totally out of vogue from 2007 through 2011. Now it might be popular again. Time will tell.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
389 comments
It's kind of funny that the intellectual side of our brains keep rooting around for numbers that give us insight to what the real estate, stock, gold, etc market will do. But it all eventually comes down to the herd mentality of us human animals that will stampede off and create the next bubble.
All I know is in the span of 8 months we went from being the only offer on properties (especially short sales) to every property I'm interested in having 3 or more offers on it and nearly every short sale in our local MLS is SSP (Short Sale Pending). The herd it would seem, think we are near a bottom and are opening their wallets. All it will take is the slightest downturn to spook them, but if it lasts long enough to become a self-fulfilling prophecy then we have ourselves another good old fashioned real estate bubble.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
2,498 comments
REpro says
They always have. Sales to foreign buyers last year was about 8%, pretty close to the historical norm.
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
gbenson says
It has never been done in history, where the same bubble was re-inflated, only 6 years later. It takes a gap of several generations to re-inflate a bubble, because the memories of a great loss are still fresh on people's minds. All these multiple offers and SSP's have a definite footprint of a "shadow bubble" mentality. A shadow bubble can only be ephemeral.
Follow
Befriend (3)
13 threads
2,220 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
ArtimusMaxtor says
Then again all that uplift from the magma reservoirs is certain to put more pressure on the oil deposits and the extra heat make it flow out more easily. Its clear as day - God's helping us squeeze out the last of the oil folks!
I see a strong recovery in the classic Hummer market - better buy one now or be priced out forever!
Follow
Befriend
4 threads
266 comments
Fremont, CA
In my neighborhood houses in decent shape are selling. I would like to believe its sustainable along with jobs but that's not my opinion at the moment.
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
I think those who are rooting for more declines are badly over thinking this. This graph is not bullshit, it's not propaganda, and the methodology behind it has been constant for decades.
The missing link is credit since the affordability measurements are based on obtaining a 30 year mortgage.
Credit jail only lasts 4 or 5 years. Millions of Americans entered credit jail between 2007 and 2009. All that is necessary for a new bull market is for these people to want to buy homes again. They will. They are. End.
Follow
Befriend
16 threads
4,426 comments
iwog says
Louis Basenese, author.. an inexperienced youngster! he grew up during the housing bubble. A product of our bubble era and does not know much what it means to have a normal housing market.
Follow
Befriend (7)
37 threads
1,539 comments
Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
Premium
iwog says
While it is certainly true that people are getting out of credit jail now, how will they be buying houses? I assume that the fact that they got into credit jail in the first place means that they aren't exactly prudent about maintaining their personal finances in most cases (some defaulted strategically). Perhaps some were wise enough to learn and save every penny while squatting. At this point though, I assume that their only avenue for re-entering the housing market is through FHA loan products?
I won't argue with you that a lot of these people probably WANT to repeat their mistakes all over again, because they surely do. However, the liar-loan products that got them into the houses the first time around no longer exist, and I would be skeptical of any claims that any significant number of them actually learned anything from the experience. Short of 3.5% DP FHA loans, how are they going to start competing for properties again?
Follow
Befriend
2 comments
I believe there are two primary factors behind the recent "turnaround". Both are happening across the country--not just here in Northern Calif.
Less Important: Demand is up largely because interest rates are down. There are good explanations for why rates are so low, and it's hard to picture that being a lasting situation.
More important: Supply is WAY down--to abnormally low levels--and the drop happened overnight. In Northern California, inventory has dropped by 50% vs. last year--or vs. any recent year for that matter. WHY? Any credible explanation has to include why inventory has fallen SO QUICKLY. I've frequently heard that people have decided to keep their houses off the market because they aren't happy with current prices. That might explain a gradual drop--but not an overnight one like this. I've heard other explanations that have the same problem--they don't account for why such a big drop would happen this quickly.
Obviously the question as to whether the supply shortage will last depends on what's causing it.
Follow
Befriend (7)
37 threads
1,539 comments
Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
Premium
How ironic would it be if all the realtors were right..."buy now or be priced out forever." There is some consolation in that since, if everyone is priced out forever, no sales will occur, and all the realtors will have to go find real jobs.
Follow
Befriend (4)
52 threads
4,416 comments
Corning, NY
Premium
bmwman91 says
Classic!
Follow
Befriend (48)
274 threads
12,575 comments
47 male
Lafayette, CA
Premium
Dont Get Bilked says
I can't dispute your stunning command of logic and reason.
I will say however that the affordability index has been around for many decades, the formula is not a secret and is published for everyone to see, and the only NAR data that is used is the median home price survey data that is published every month. Now you may hate the NAR, but if you don't like their data feel free to plug in your own.
I'll even instruct you how to calculate the graph yourself:
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/Formulas_HAI.pdf/$FILE/Formulas_HAI.pdf
Follow
Befriend
28 threads
1,489 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
iwog says
NAR's formula completely misses one factor: Household Debt is still close to all-time-high.
Dr. Housing Bubble explains this in gory details:
"The problem with the index is that it assumes two things: 1) that a family with the median income (roughly $55,000) can QUALIFY for a mortgage of a median priced home; and 2) that they have SAVED the required 20% down. In today’s credit constrained environment due to the financial crisis which has left the major banks saddled with millions of homes that are delinquent or in foreclosure, there is little reason to lend money to borrowers who can’t meet very stringent qualification requirements."
See for yourself:
http://investmentwatchblog.com/why-housing-is-actually-not-affordable/#.T8OLvL-6x2k
Follow
Befriend
4 threads
266 comments
Fremont, CA
I think that statistics from any self-serving group are suspect. It does not just apply to the NAR.
Follow
Befriend (2)
15 threads
430 comments
Reston, VA
The affordability index also does not count transaction costs or downside risk. Transaction costs are proportional to dollar value not payments. If you keep a $400K house for 6 yrs, the transaction costs are about $40K / 6 = $6,600 / yr.
According to the redfin mortgage calculator, after a 20% down, payments are $1500 / month or $18,000 / yr. So, the transaction costs are 25% of the principal / interest payments.
Downside risk is due to how much house prices are above historic norms. If house prices were looking more normal, then people would expect principal paydown and inflation type appreciation would pay for the transaction costs after a few yrs. That is not necessarily true at the moment. Clearly this is where the bulls and bears diverge.
Follow
Befriend (9)
70 threads
930 comments
San Leandro, CA
I got yer TWO HARD FACTs hangin !

A mob of 100 people bidding for that LAST house will be sold to the highest bidder. DUH !
One buyer bidding on any of one hundred homes will ALSO be sold to the highest bidder. DUH !
The present spurt in sales is again spawned by pent up demand & marketing hype. There have been spurts in the past and there will be spurts to follow, until we return to the phenomenal 2.5 times income ratio. Those who already OWN real property, desperately want to mitigate losses and they must convince others that, "NOW IS THE GREATEST TIME IN HISTORY TO BUY MY HOME" !!!! Why not ask the seller for that warranty in writing and retain a percentage of the purchase price for a period of years, in an escrow account ?
Early 70s-Women were granted credit. Prices doubled.
Early 80s-Computers became home & business appliances at $2k+ ea. How many did you buy ?
We will now return to "NORMAL" real property appreciation rates. On the way down, sellers will seek out & dupe those who remain ignorant of the above two simple FACTS.
Follow
Befriend
2,826 comments
Monterey, CA
Dont Get Bilked says
I'm sure they're trembling with fear.
Follow
Befriend (31)
34 threads
2,554 comments
San Jose, CA
Premium
TMAC,
Look at your graph. It shows that RE doubled its value about every 25 years before women entered the work force. Once women entered the work force in the early 1970's, RE doubled its value approximately every 13 years. If history is any indication, the HPI should be at around 160.
If you have a different approach of interpreting the graph, I'm all ear.
Follow
Befriend (2)
15 threads
430 comments
Reston, VA
Using the rule of 72 (interest * num years to double = 72), then:
10% return = 7 yrs to double
7% return = 10 yrs to double
Stocks are typically in that range historically.
Housing goes with wage inflation outside of other fundamental changes.
2.9% = 25 yrs to double
5.5% = 13 yrs to double.
Individual wage inflation has not been at 5.5%. I expect that it has been more like 2.9%, and as more and more families go to dual income, the prices have experienced a doubling due to that one time social change. If that is true, house price inflation will return to the wage inflation.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
2,498 comments
E-man says
I would say the chart very nicely tracks baby boomer earnings if you ask me. Something to think about since they will all retire in the next 20 years.
Follow
Befriend
3 threads
81 comments
“I can't dispute your stunning command of logic and reason.” You tellem Ducker!
So much negativity around here, how can anyone doubt the truthfulness of the mothership NAR????? Real estate tycoons like us sure don’t and look where it got us. We are landLORDS. LORDS OF THE LAND. Also lords of the sea since were duckers. We can’t lose, NOBODY CAN LOSE as long as you follow the NAR’s guidance. It’s simple.
Follow
Befriend (9)
70 threads
930 comments
San Leandro, CA
E-man says
It took 70 years to raise this index by about 18 points. In HALF that time the index rose by almost TEN times that amount. Why ? We all have been made aware, that this skyrocketing in value was a mistake. We can not take back that women are now responsible for half the mortgage payment, but we can eliminate income generated by the introduction of the computer and information age. So, I draw a straight line across the 110 years showing the average incline prior to 1970 and double it, placing the target at 50.

Bottom line, prices will return to 2.5 times the buyers income. Combine this with purchasing power and prices will continue to decline for generations.
Follow
Befriend (16)
766 threads
7,711 comments
Boca Raton, FL
Premium
How the hell is housing more affordable in 2006 than in 1991? That alone destroys the author's credibility.
Follow
Befriend (2)
15 threads
430 comments
Reston, VA
Dan, The affordability index is inverse to prices. Higher index means more affordable.
The definition in iwogs link shows that it is defined as median income / qualifying income * 100. When the affordability index is 100, then the median income = qualifying income = 4 * principal and interest payments for median price. So, they are assuming that to qualify, principal and interest = 25% of income.
The principal and interest assume 20% down. They don't state how they define median price. Presumably, when low end has high volume, it drives down the median price and drives up the affordability index. Also, lower interest rates drive it up. These seemed to compensate for the high prices somewhat between 2000 and 2006. The super high interest rates in the early 80s made the affordability index very low back then.
Follow
Befriend
13 comments
The thing I pay attention to is the construction job numbers in any market that has an uptick in new home sales. So far, at the top of the list is Phoenix, where construction jobs are up about 6% year on year at my last check, and new home building (if they're lucky) is going to be about 50% of "normal".
What I don't get is this:
People need affordable shelter.
Low interest rates and no new supply=eventual increase in prices (bad for affordability).
New supply=construction jobs for generally less educated (those who have been hit hardest).
So, why is an increase in new construction a bad thing?
Wanting no new construction is inconsistent with wanting low prices.