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22 Hard facts about the housing recovery


By iwog   Follow   Thu, 24 May 2012, 9:13pm   9,119 views   84 comments
In Lafayette CA 94549   Watch (1)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

Good article. All the vectors point up now. There's really nothing left to cause further declines except a shadow inventory that is looking more and more like Bigfoot.

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/04/09/signs-of-real-estate-recovery/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/616751-11-more-hard-facts-about-the-housing-recovery

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  1. CL


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    45   2:12pm Fri 25 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    tiny tina says

    CL says

    No. But I would not be happy if I bought in at 4000, either.

    That's why we need some data points to tie this all to.

    But you didn't buy at 4000, nor did you buy a house in 2005. We are a long ways away from both peaks, time-wise.

    You keep asking for data points. How hard have you looked on your own?

    Close. I bought in '06.

    I want to see why houses bought would cost more (or less) today, either compared to inflation or the bubble, or had the bubble never been.

    Seems like the numbers are still high, but I don't see how consumers would sustain these prices under all the negative pressure.

    iwog says

    Hell yes. With new home construction almost non-existent, this is huge. Fewer new homes for sale yet sales still go up?

    What do we see on pre-owned homes? Are they sold out? Back to bubble sales numbers?

    Shiller said it'll drop through next year? What did he overlook?

  2. P N Dr Lo R


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    46   3:28pm Fri 25 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ArtimusMaxtor says

    Small Tudors real cozy lil houses. Sad to see in a way.

    I know, they're probably right out of the 1920's when this type of home was very popular! I call them "sheet music" houses because many like them adorned the covers of popular songs of that era!

    http://www.amazon.com/Theres-Little-White-House-Green/dp/B003E7HSWE

    http://www.amazon.com/Kentucky-Perfect-Ballad-Ukulele-Accompaniment/dp/B004HCNX7Y

  3. Homeboy


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    47   10:43pm Fri 25 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Bigsby says

    Artimus, Artimus. What do they call your medical condition?

    For $500, "What is schizophrenia?"

  4. jvolstad


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    48   11:32pm Fri 25 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Patrick says

    Holy cow, that photo of Hong Kong apartments is like something out of a dystopian sci-fi movie. Looks like a place that could be instantly wiped out by plague or typhus.

    Can you imagine what that place smells like at dinner time? Talk about your Chinese food!

  5. bmwman91


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    49   10:37am Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Vicente says

    The only thing I could see driving prices up AT ALL is simple exhaustion of other havens. The money sloshing around trying to find returns decides it would rather go back into housing.

    This is my observation as well. It would seem that my parents' generation (boomers) is desperately looking for somewhere to put & grow their money as retirement is supposed to be starting in the next 5-10 years. Their 401k's are of unknown future value, at least for those that actually utilized them, the stock market is a casino, savings interest rates are a complete joke and sovereign debt concerns have them weary of treasuries & bonds. The only thing that seems obvious at this point is that people need somewhere to live, and that you can get them to pay you for it if you can get a hold on some properties. I don't blame them for snatching everything up to try to band-aid their lack of financial planning for retirement, and general distrust of "traditional" investment vehicles. I am really skeptical of how well things will work out for this group, but I guess we'll see. It is sort of amusing, in a sick way of course, to see my parents' generation basically razing the economic landscape to maintain their current quality of life and put it into a condition that leaves their children poised to live with a lower quality of life. In a way this is good...we are spoiled as a nation, and my generation could use a little hardship to get their priorities realigned. Those of us that know how to scrimp and live well below our means won't really have any issues, but those that don't will be mighty unhappy (hell, they already are).

  6. REpro


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    50   11:26am Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    Vicente says
    The only thing I could see driving prices up AT ALL is simple exhaustion of other havens. The money sloshing around trying to find returns decides it would rather go back into housing.

    You are absolutely right. This is definitely one of the reason people run to buy houses. Stock market is no more a playground for retailer investors. Only big players are able to rakes some money from this system. Mutual funds take their fees first and whatever left passes to small investors. Gold lost its luster. Commodities and currency market is for very limited number of investors. The most popular CD between average Joe’s gives hopeless return.
    Many happen to be real estate investors however, do not realize that RE investing/landlording is not for everybody as well. They don’t know how to calculate true holding costs, risk associate or valuation technics. They follow crowd by walking through mines field.

  7. thomas.wong1986


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    51   12:20pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Hell yes. With new home construction almost non-existent, this is huge. Fewer new homes for sale yet sales still go up?

    after several months of declines a POP in sales/price to cheer about.. yes you have ONE month to cheer about. Enjoy it!

  8. bob2356


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    52   12:40pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Vicente says

    The only thing I could see driving prices up AT ALL is simple exhaustion of other havens.

    I believe you meant US havens. There are plenty of places to invest beyond the border. Do it now, I think currency controls are coming eventually.

  9. REpro


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    53   1:23pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    bob2356 says

    Vicente says
    The only thing I could see driving prices up AT ALL is simple exhaustion of other havens.

    I believe you meant US havens. There are plenty of places to invest beyond the border. Do it now, I think currency controls are coming eventually.

    Oh yes, Chinese, Brazilian or British took this advice seriously. They are investing in US real estate now.

  10. Mick Russom


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    54   3:49pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Iwog, whose income looks more like Rmoney's than anyone else, is trying to tell us all to do the facebook thing and buy an albatross house.

    Or pay him extortionary rent.

    Jobs are bad, market stinks, IPOs arent producing anything, companies like Dell and HP are about to be gutted by the likes of Hua Wei.

    Things stink, bad, and to cause another housing bubble because we are out of ways to scam up other bubbles is criminal.

  11. Mick Russom


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    55   3:50pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Hell yes. With new home construction almost non-existent, this is huge. Fewer new homes for sale yet sales still go up?

    Greed machine. No end how much you want the cost of living to eat into our paychecks. Guess what, ponzi man, the more it costs the less money we have in a consumer based economy. Figure out how that ends, genius.

  12. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich


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    56   4:14pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    Mick Russom says

    to cause another housing bubble because we are out of ways to scam up other bubbles is criminal

    Why do you hate prosperity?

  13. bubblesitter


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    57   8:55pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says

    Why do you hate prosperity?

    Because life without prosperity is so interesting.

  14. dunnross


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    58   8:59pm Sat 26 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    REpro says

    Gold lost its luster.

    Gold is only down 20% and it lost it's luster. Housing has lost 35% and it's still in vogue. This is the kind of talk which tells me that gold has a lot more to go on the upside, where housing has a lot more to go on the downside.

  15. iwog


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    59   12:49am Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    dunnross says

    Housing has lost 35% and it's still in vogue.

    On what plane of reality is a 35% dead drop "still in vogue"?

    Can we dispense with the silly language please? Real estate was totally out of vogue from 2007 through 2011. Now it might be popular again. Time will tell.

  16. gbenson


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    60   1:07am Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    It's kind of funny that the intellectual side of our brains keep rooting around for numbers that give us insight to what the real estate, stock, gold, etc market will do. But it all eventually comes down to the herd mentality of us human animals that will stampede off and create the next bubble.

    All I know is in the span of 8 months we went from being the only offer on properties (especially short sales) to every property I'm interested in having 3 or more offers on it and nearly every short sale in our local MLS is SSP (Short Sale Pending). The herd it would seem, think we are near a bottom and are opening their wallets. All it will take is the slightest downturn to spook them, but if it lasts long enough to become a self-fulfilling prophecy then we have ourselves another good old fashioned real estate bubble.

  17. bob2356


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    61   1:09am Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    REpro says

    bob2356 says

    Vicente says

    The only thing I could see driving prices up AT ALL is simple exhaustion of other havens.

    I believe you meant US havens. There are plenty of places to invest beyond the border. Do it now, I think currency controls are coming eventually.

    Oh yes, Chinese, Brazilian or British took this advice seriously. They are investing in US real estate now.

    They always have. Sales to foreign buyers last year was about 8%, pretty close to the historical norm.

  18. dunnross


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    62   7:13am Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    gbenson says

    but if it lasts long enough to become a self-fulfilling prophecy then we have ourselves another good old fashioned real estate bubble.

    It has never been done in history, where the same bubble was re-inflated, only 6 years later. It takes a gap of several generations to re-inflate a bubble, because the memories of a great loss are still fresh on people's minds. All these multiple offers and SSP's have a definite footprint of a "shadow bubble" mentality. A shadow bubble can only be ephemeral.

  19. New Renter


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    63   9:36am Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    ArtimusMaxtor says

    I went looking for earthquake information in Saudi Arabia. It seemed logical in a way. Couldn't find many of them. Oh no its gone way beyond that. You go to find Saudi geological information. Now they tell you about the wonderful Volcanos they have there. I counted 25 myself. Some aren't working really well. Yet. So I figure its a great place to get a lube and an oil change. Maybe get some cheap gas. It could be a good vacation place is what I am saying. I don't think there are that many Volcanos in any one place on the earth. So I guess I will bring my video recorder. If I decide to go there.

    http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2010/0926/Ancient-volcanic-field-reawakens-in-Saudi-Arabia

    That link might crash so be careful

    Deal is I can't find those quakes at the U.S. Geological site. Seems they are selective on the middle east especially.

    Then again all that uplift from the magma reservoirs is certain to put more pressure on the oil deposits and the extra heat make it flow out more easily. Its clear as day - God's helping us squeeze out the last of the oil folks!

    I see a strong recovery in the classic Hummer market - better buy one now or be priced out forever!

  20. inflection point


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    64   5:16pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    In my neighborhood houses in decent shape are selling. I would like to believe its sustainable along with jobs but that's not my opinion at the moment.

  21. iwog


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    65   6:33pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I think those who are rooting for more declines are badly over thinking this. This graph is not bullshit, it's not propaganda, and the methodology behind it has been constant for decades.

    The missing link is credit since the affordability measurements are based on obtaining a 30 year mortgage.

    Credit jail only lasts 4 or 5 years. Millions of Americans entered credit jail between 2007 and 2009. All that is necessary for a new bull market is for these people to want to buy homes again. They will. They are. End.

  22. thomas.wong1986


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    66   6:35pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    iwog says

    http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2012/04/09/signs-of-real-estate-recovery/

    Louis Basenese, author.. an inexperienced youngster! he grew up during the housing bubble. A product of our bubble era and does not know much what it means to have a normal housing market.

  23. bmwman91


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    67   7:57pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Credit jail only lasts 4 or 5 years. Millions of Americans entered credit jail between 2007 and 2009. All that is necessary for a new bull market is for these people to want to buy homes again. They will. They are. End.

    While it is certainly true that people are getting out of credit jail now, how will they be buying houses? I assume that the fact that they got into credit jail in the first place means that they aren't exactly prudent about maintaining their personal finances in most cases (some defaulted strategically). Perhaps some were wise enough to learn and save every penny while squatting. At this point though, I assume that their only avenue for re-entering the housing market is through FHA loan products?

    I won't argue with you that a lot of these people probably WANT to repeat their mistakes all over again, because they surely do. However, the liar-loan products that got them into the houses the first time around no longer exist, and I would be skeptical of any claims that any significant number of them actually learned anything from the experience. Short of 3.5% DP FHA loans, how are they going to start competing for properties again?

  24. Picky Nicky


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    68   9:26pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    I believe there are two primary factors behind the recent "turnaround". Both are happening across the country--not just here in Northern Calif.

    Less Important: Demand is up largely because interest rates are down. There are good explanations for why rates are so low, and it's hard to picture that being a lasting situation.

    More important: Supply is WAY down--to abnormally low levels--and the drop happened overnight. In Northern California, inventory has dropped by 50% vs. last year--or vs. any recent year for that matter. WHY? Any credible explanation has to include why inventory has fallen SO QUICKLY. I've frequently heard that people have decided to keep their houses off the market because they aren't happy with current prices. That might explain a gradual drop--but not an overnight one like this. I've heard other explanations that have the same problem--they don't account for why such a big drop would happen this quickly.

    Obviously the question as to whether the supply shortage will last depends on what's causing it.

  25. bmwman91


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    69   9:29pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    How ironic would it be if all the realtors were right..."buy now or be priced out forever." There is some consolation in that since, if everyone is priced out forever, no sales will occur, and all the realtors will have to go find real jobs.

  26. freak80


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    70   11:08pm Sun 27 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    bmwman91 says

    if everyone is priced out forever, no sales will occur, and all the realtors will have to go find real jobs.

    Classic!

  27. iwog


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    71   4:33am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Dont Get Bilked says

    Listen here you lying little fuck......

    Your "graph" is published by your fucking lying masters NAR. That speaks for itself. And as far as you're concerned, you are bullshit and propaganda and we'll be here and everywhere on the net telling everyone.

    I can't dispute your stunning command of logic and reason.

    I will say however that the affordability index has been around for many decades, the formula is not a secret and is published for everyone to see, and the only NAR data that is used is the median home price survey data that is published every month. Now you may hate the NAR, but if you don't like their data feel free to plug in your own.

    I'll even instruct you how to calculate the graph yourself:

    http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/Formulas_HAI.pdf/$FILE/Formulas_HAI.pdf

  28. dunnross


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    72   7:38am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    iwog says

    Lafayette, CA
    79 Mon, 28 May 2012 at 4:33 am Mail Quote Permalink Like Dislike

    Dont Get Bilked says

    Listen here you lying little fuck......

    Your "graph" is published by your fucking lying masters NAR. That speaks for itself. And as far as you're concerned, you are bullshit and propaganda and we'll be here and everywhere on the net telling everyone.

    I can't dispute your stunning command of logic and reason.

    I will say however that the affordability index has been around for many decades, the formula is not a secret and is published for everyone to see, and the only NAR data that is used is the median home price survey data that is published every month. Now you may hate the NAR, but if you don't like their data feel free to plug in your own.

    I'll even instruct you how to calculate the graph yourself:

    http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/Formulas_HAI.pdf/$FILE/Formulas_HAI.pdf

    NAR's formula completely misses one factor: Household Debt is still close to all-time-high.

    Dr. Housing Bubble explains this in gory details:

    "The problem with the index is that it assumes two things: 1) that a family with the median income (roughly $55,000) can QUALIFY for a mortgage of a median priced home; and 2) that they have SAVED the required 20% down. In today’s credit constrained environment due to the financial crisis which has left the major banks saddled with millions of homes that are delinquent or in foreclosure, there is little reason to lend money to borrowers who can’t meet very stringent qualification requirements."

    See for yourself:

    http://investmentwatchblog.com/why-housing-is-actually-not-affordable/#.T8OLvL-6x2k

  29. inflection point


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    73   8:48am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    I think that statistics from any self-serving group are suspect. It does not just apply to the NAR.

  30. YesYNot


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    74   8:54am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike  

    The affordability index also does not count transaction costs or downside risk. Transaction costs are proportional to dollar value not payments. If you keep a $400K house for 6 yrs, the transaction costs are about $40K / 6 = $6,600 / yr.

    According to the redfin mortgage calculator, after a 20% down, payments are $1500 / month or $18,000 / yr. So, the transaction costs are 25% of the principal / interest payments.

    Downside risk is due to how much house prices are above historic norms. If house prices were looking more normal, then people would expect principal paydown and inflation type appreciation would pay for the transaction costs after a few yrs. That is not necessarily true at the moment. Clearly this is where the bulls and bears diverge.

  31. TMAC54


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    75   9:03am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    I got yer TWO HARD FACTs hangin !
    A mob of 100 people bidding for that LAST house will be sold to the highest bidder. DUH !
    One buyer bidding on any of one hundred homes will ALSO be sold to the highest bidder. DUH !
    The present spurt in sales is again spawned by pent up demand & marketing hype. There have been spurts in the past and there will be spurts to follow, until we return to the phenomenal 2.5 times income ratio. Those who already OWN real property, desperately want to mitigate losses and they must convince others that, "NOW IS THE GREATEST TIME IN HISTORY TO BUY MY HOME" !!!! Why not ask the seller for that warranty in writing and retain a percentage of the purchase price for a period of years, in an escrow account ?

    Early 70s-Women were granted credit. Prices doubled.
    Early 80s-Computers became home & business appliances at $2k+ ea. How many did you buy ?
    We will now return to "NORMAL" real property appreciation rates. On the way down, sellers will seek out & dupe those who remain ignorant of the above two simple FACTS.

  32. Bigsby


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    76   9:46am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Dont Get Bilked says

    But I can, will and will continue to expose your realtor misrepresentations, lies and corruption. You can count on it like the setting sun.

    I'm sure they're trembling with fear.

  33. E-man


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    77   9:52am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    TMAC,

    Look at your graph. It shows that RE doubled its value about every 25 years before women entered the work force. Once women entered the work force in the early 1970's, RE doubled its value approximately every 13 years. If history is any indication, the HPI should be at around 160.

    If you have a different approach of interpreting the graph, I'm all ear.

  34. YesYNot


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    78   10:03am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Using the rule of 72 (interest * num years to double = 72), then:
    10% return = 7 yrs to double
    7% return = 10 yrs to double
    Stocks are typically in that range historically.

    Housing goes with wage inflation outside of other fundamental changes.
    2.9% = 25 yrs to double
    5.5% = 13 yrs to double.

    Individual wage inflation has not been at 5.5%. I expect that it has been more like 2.9%, and as more and more families go to dual income, the prices have experienced a doubling due to that one time social change. If that is true, house price inflation will return to the wage inflation.

  35. bob2356


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    79   11:42am Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    E-man says

    If you have a different approach of interpreting the graph, I'm all ear.

    I would say the chart very nicely tracks baby boomer earnings if you ask me. Something to think about since they will all retire in the next 20 years.

  36. duckhead


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    80   1:20pm Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    “I can't dispute your stunning command of logic and reason.” You tellem Ducker!

    So much negativity around here, how can anyone doubt the truthfulness of the mothership NAR????? Real estate tycoons like us sure don’t and look where it got us.  We are landLORDS. LORDS OF THE LAND. Also lords of the sea since were duckers. We can’t lose, NOBODY CAN LOSE as long as you follow the NAR’s guidance. It’s simple.

  37. TMAC54


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    81   6:49pm Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike  

    E-man says

    If you have a different approach of interpreting the graph, I'm all ear.

    It took 70 years to raise this index by about 18 points. In HALF that time the index rose by almost TEN times that amount. Why ? We all have been made aware, that this skyrocketing in value was a mistake. We can not take back that women are now responsible for half the mortgage payment, but we can eliminate income generated by the introduction of the computer and information age. So, I draw a straight line across the 110 years showing the average incline prior to 1970 and double it, placing the target at 50.
    Bottom line, prices will return to 2.5 times the buyers income. Combine this with purchasing power and prices will continue to decline for generations.

  38. Dan8267


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    82   7:09pm Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    How the hell is housing more affordable in 2006 than in 1991? That alone destroys the author's credibility.

  39. YesYNot


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    83   8:54pm Mon 28 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    Dan, The affordability index is inverse to prices. Higher index means more affordable.

    The definition in iwogs link shows that it is defined as median income / qualifying income * 100. When the affordability index is 100, then the median income = qualifying income = 4 * principal and interest payments for median price. So, they are assuming that to qualify, principal and interest = 25% of income.

    The principal and interest assume 20% down. They don't state how they define median price. Presumably, when low end has high volume, it drives down the median price and drives up the affordability index. Also, lower interest rates drive it up. These seemed to compensate for the high prices somewhat between 2000 and 2006. The super high interest rates in the early 80s made the affordability index very low back then.

  40. Rental Watch


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    84   1:19am Tue 29 May 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

    The thing I pay attention to is the construction job numbers in any market that has an uptick in new home sales. So far, at the top of the list is Phoenix, where construction jobs are up about 6% year on year at my last check, and new home building (if they're lucky) is going to be about 50% of "normal".

    What I don't get is this:

    People need affordable shelter.
    Low interest rates and no new supply=eventual increase in prices (bad for affordability).
    New supply=construction jobs for generally less educated (those who have been hit hardest).

    So, why is an increase in new construction a bad thing?

    Wanting no new construction is inconsistent with wanting low prices.

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