http://ochousingnews.com/news/are-the-housing-bottom-callers-all-wrong-again
Are the housing bottom callers all wrong… again?
By golfplan18 Follow Fri, 1 Jun 2012, 7:01am 1,408 views 15 comments
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Irvine, CA
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Oil Can's website
The California bottom callers aren just crazy. We have another 30% to go.
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golfplan18 says
For them - was there a bubble to begin with?
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How the market is going to be in norther VA ? i keep on hearing its going up up and up as many people across other states are moving up here due to more govt jobs more in this area
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Corning, NY
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nimika says
Not suprising. The only "industry" left in this country is lobbying and starting wars for profit.
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Is this even debatable? If not for ZIRP, HARP, HAMP, and every other Gov't created life support system in existence, we might have APOCALYPSE's cannibal anarchy, and by reading the news recently, it seems like it's begun already in earnest anyway.
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dow jones index has lost all it's gains for 2012 (year to date return is now negative) - which makes me happy since i'm sitting on a lot of cash after i sold my index funds mid march.
this will impact those that were going to sell shares for their down payment.
the economic mood has turned negative after being very positive the first quarter of 2012.
the bay area spring-bounce/mini-boom should be settling down a bit.
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Hysteresis says
Wow. What's up Monday night quarterback? Are you staying in cash now, or are you buying now? Let me guess? If the market is up in a couple of months, you'd claim that you bought today. If the market is down, then you'd say you shorted the market.
Lay it out there for us right now so you can get your bragging right in the next several months. Being a Monday night quarterback is not helping any reader here. :)
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E-man says
why so aggressive with the name calling? i hit a nerve?
moving to cash was an easy call. from october 2011 to march 2012, the sp500 return was greater than 20% (don't remember the exact percentage). in the last 50 years this has happened less than 1% of the time. so there was a 99% chance (based on past data which isn't 100% reliable) of prices staying flat or more likely dropping. prices dropped a lot since then.
even if the odds go against me and saw continued upside, there's an even slimmer chance, in this post-recession environment, it's going to run up a big 20%+. so i had little to lose by moving to cash. this was in my tax deferred account so no taxable event occurred.
i just reacted to the current environment which my analysis showed was optimistic.
again, i don't predict what will happen i just react to the environment. if i see prices tank quickly like last august(when i bought my index funds during the whole debt-ceiling debacle), i'll buy again. i don't know what will happen, i am simply opportunistic when things get too high or too low. i also bought close to the 2009 lows. there is a visceral feeling when the entire country is depressed - a smart investor can capitalize on it and a bad investor will lose money.
do i get it right all the time? no. i miss good buy or sell opportunities and i'll get my calls wrong. but i'm still a better investor than average.
most people are horrible investors because they bet with their emotions. i bet against them. when people are happy i sell. when people are sad i buy. simple, but not easy.
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Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.
It sounds easy, but it isn't.
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San Antonio, TX
jvolstad's website
http://www.abor.com/pdf/ethics.pdf
Now wait a darn minute here. Realtors have these great Code of Ethics. They would never do anything to violate that code just to get a commission. Or would they........
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Although there is no "national" house price I called bottom a while back [http://www.patrick.net/forum/?p=1209346] (... time will tell if I'm a genius or a chump.
For what its worth I hope I’m wrong… a bit more of a drop up here in the northeast would be a good thing.
My perspective it comes back to incomes. Now that NINJA is (mostly) gone, you can’t buy what you don’t earn. Wages growth isn’t exactly accelerating. That should keep downward pressure on most areas but it counterbalanced by cash buyers (investors or specuvestors) or those true high income earners (100k+ HH income) who have been spending the better part of a decade waiting, renting and saving.
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Troll Hunter says
Some areas in the NYC region entered it a while ago....
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For NYC specifically I don't see a sharp drop off, more like a long slow decline. Even the 20 city average shows a slower rate of decline in recent months.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/05/31/business/economy/case-shiller-index.html?ref=standardpoorscaseshillerhomepriceindex#city/NY
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EastCoastBubbleBoy says
I'm right outside that specific area, and it's true, there hasn't been a sharp drop off but it has been a steady decline over the last 3 or 4 years. It also doesn't show any signs of leveling off. There could be a slower rate of decline, but still declining neverless.