WatchI was at an open house this weekend and the realtor told me that it is a seller's market and how all the buyer's have realized that prices have hit bottom. I have heard this and other shovel's full of shit relentlessly for the last six years.
I thought about it a bit and I realized that it disturbs me because they truly don't care at all if you lose money or if you lose a lot of money or even if lose so much money that it could do your life serious damage. It's amazing how much they don't give a damn.
I'm not looking for a bunch of vitriol about realtors, just reflecting a bit.
Another thing that is amazing is how they so rigidly read from the same script. It's pretty mindless. I would think there would be a real opportunity for a human being who wasn't lying to you constantly. If you are a realtor reading this, here's the approach.
Buyer: "Is this a good time to buy?"
Realtor: "You know, I'm not qualified to give investment advice. If you've decided to buy a home, I can facilitate that for you. I can tell you what to look for, what to avoid, refer you to a lender whom I've had good experiences with and help you negotiate the best deal. I have a lot of experience and I am good at those things. If you are selling a house, I can market it for you to get the best price."
I would guess this approach would help a realtor develop a good reputation and build a good business.
The last thought I had was about the realtor's relentless drive to convince you the market is hot. As much as anything else, this tells me the market is cold. When the market is hot, realtor's don't try hard to convince you.
I don't think all realtors are scumbags but most of them do seem to be.
Biff
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San Mateo, CA
Realtors, car sales people (used and new)...essentially most sales people...they are a breed of their own.
I honestly think some (maybe even most) realtors believe their own spiel, and the spiel being consistent across the 'industry' is probably due to them repeating (consciously or not) the message from 'above' (NAR).
This said, the truth is that while I personally believe housing in the better locations of the Bay Area could go 10-50% lower than current rates, one does wonder what the heck really is going on and what the truth about it all is, and what the future holds...and we all have our theories (some better founded than others), but nobody really knows...and I could certainly be wrong.
Hell, I do not even need a realtor trying to sell me a home...my own wife is doing their bidding, and she is not even getting a commission! The owner of the condo we are renting is selling it, and she is tired of moving...so am I for that matter, but do not see myself buying a frigging house at current prices...
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They don't care? If it means a commission and you asked to eat their mothers kidneys before you signed the P&S, they hand them to you on a pitch fork. Charles Manson refused to be housed in a jail cell with a Realtor® - with good reason.
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San Jose, CA
Get fooled by a car salesman, and you'll lose thousands.
Get fooled by a Realtor®, and you'll lose hundreds of thousands.
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It is a sellers market where I was looking in NJ last week. Without a doubt.
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Housing Patrolman says
Because those are trailing indicators. Unless you have data for last week...
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Housing Patrolman says
I'm not misrepresenting anything. I simply stated what was happening. You are the one trying desperately to explain why.
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Housing Patrolman says
I said nothing of the sort. I said what I saw last week when bidding on houses.
In any event, we'll see what the trend is in another few months.
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Can't upload image from iPad, uggg.
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Foothill Ranch, CA
I am a Realtor and tell my clients what I think, good or bad about a property or market. I spent 2004 - 2010 telling clients not to buy, and even now I tell them they are getting a so-so deal on the property, but a great deal on the money. If they plan on staying for 10+ years, buying can be OK. Shorter than that, be careful. Rising interest rates could be a killer.
How can I do this, I have a regular job that pays my bills. If I kill 10 deals in a row, the family still eats.
What is funny about this; I have found it is harder to talk someone out of buying then I ever imagined. I had a lot of people tell me I knew nothing about real estate in the bubble years and went to another Realtor and bought anyway. That is fine, I don't want that blood money.
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Laguna Beach, CA
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I can't believe I just found the ignore feature. This actually makes ignoring bear/bull trolls easy, and the forum more pleasant to view.
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Ross, CA
Very active in certain desirable neighborhoods here in the Bay Area. But with the global economy teetering, who knows how long that will last?
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Ross, CA
Housing Patrolman says
Actually, they are going up - - in some cases dramatically.
Here is a home that listed for 1.2mil last October.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Piedmont/115-Highland-Ave-94611/home/553010
It sat around for several weeks before getting picked up for 1,075,000 in December. 200k of renovations and it sold for 1.78mil in May. This is an extreme example, but right now most homes in Piedmont are going fast and at least 10% more than a year ago.
Still prices are lower than they were in 2005, and I doubt they will go much higher anytime soon.
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Los Angeles, CA
I really believe interest rates will NEVER EVER Go back up.
Like japan.
In 5 years a 2% 30 year fixed loan will be common.
Basically if the feds raise rates the whole world blows up, nuclear winter starts, and we all freeze to death in the snow starving - even the banksters - so it wont happen. They will launch nukes at Iran and 10 other countries before they let mortage rates hit 7% again.
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Foothill Ranch, CA
PockyClipsNow says
And they will outlaw inflation? I don't see RE going up in real terms, but in nominal terms, that is another story.
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Ross, CA
Housing Patrolman says
You're right. It is an atypical example. It is one of the "desirable" neighborhoods. Remember what you said?
Housing Patrolman says
Well, if you want to wager I'd be happy to show you Piedmont, Kentfield, Los Gatos, Woodside, Palo Alto - well you get the idea.
This is what is crazy about you and why so many people choose to ignore you. First you say I'm wrong - that you'd wage that prices are falling in desirable neighborhoods. Then when confronted with facts, you say it doesn't matter, because they are atypical. But I never said that this trend in these specific neighborhoods was typical of all neighborhoods. I know they are not. I am just throwing my 2 cents into a thread titled "It's a sellers market".
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tdeloco says
No, just let the bank, er taxpayers, lose hundreds of thousands. That's the new American dream.
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Boca Raton, FL
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Goran_K says
Bear trolls! Geeze, I think I fought a few of those in my World of Warcraft days.
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Ross, CA
Housing Patrolman says
Well, I live in Kentfield, so I guess you are sort of right - I don't live in Piedmont.
Anyway, I too have tired of you're "When did you stop beating your wife" questions. You have been ignored. Goodbye!
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Laguna Beach, CA
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Dan8267 says
At least in WOW you can pick and choose who you play with.
I'm tired of the extremist on both sides, and I guess I never looked hard enough for the ignore button.
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Goran_K,
Thank you so much. I never knew there was an ignore feature. Holy Moses. When I think of all the moronic text I have had to filter.
Also, when I started this thread I was seriously hoping to avoid the stupid, really stupid, relentless arguing that is so prevelant here. Absolutely mindless crapola.
I may get carpel tunnel using the ignore feature.
Biff
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Boca Raton, FL
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Goran_K says
Yeah, America has become way too polarized.
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Laguna Beach, CA
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Biff Baxter says
I agree with Dan, some issues just get too polarized, and people want to call each other names, and things out of their emotions. Bears do it because they feel cheated (rightfully so) from a normal housing market, instead of one that is rigged for banks. Bulls do it because they have a monetary attachment to an asset that has high risk associated with it (because of the rigged housing market).
I've been on both sides. I used to be a homeowner, and I am currently a home seeker. So I know why this issue stirs up people so much, but I like to think as grown adults (I hope we are at least), we can stop calling everyone liars, or idiots, or whatever seems to fit at that moment in time. It just makes the discussion turn into a school yard fight. I had enough of those.
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Oakland, CA
People often throw around the phrases "it's a seller's market" or "it's a buyers market," but what does that really mean?
In general, if the HPI shows a positive slope at any given time, I consider it a seller's market, and if the HPI shows a negative slope at any given time, I consider it a buyer's market.
Although I live in Alameda County, I mostly follow the market in Contra Costa County due to more affordable real estate (although I don't think CCC will exhibit any glaring unusual trends compared to other counties in the Bay Area).
I've made several offers in 2012 (6-7 now), most above asking price, and all multiple offer situations with no success. Ignoring all that, and only looking at # of homes for sale, # of homes sold, and selling price per sq-ft...
Inventory is LOW and sinking according to Redfin. Inventory is 53% lower today than it was just one year ago. Despite a 53% reduction in inventory, the # of homes sold is up 22%! That tells you that homes are not sitting on MLS. The median selling price per sq-ft is not dramatically different compared to a year ago, but it's trending upward.
In the big picture, it's difficult to say that it is a seller's market right now. But if you zoom in and only look at 2012, you can certainly make a case that it is a seller's market right now.
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Dear Housing Patrolman,
Please pull up a chair and sit down. We need to have a little talk.
There was a housing bubble. Realtors had a big part in it. Bankers had a big part in it. Irresponsible borrowers had a big part in it. We all know that.
I'm not sure where housing is going in the next few years but my guess is that it will continue to decline slowly and that there is a chance that it may take another significant leg down. I don’t see a recovery for a long time, possibly as much as a decade or even more. I only mention this so you don't think I am bullish on real estate.
Here’s the hard part. You are not the great patrolman for the truth. Your posts are fairly annoying, like gum stuck to your shoe, but you are not the menacing figure you seem to desperately want to be. Your posts are annoying because they lack content of any value. You try to act superior or like some enforcer but you sound dumb and impotent. Your own emails make statements that cannot be known and you state these things as the absolute truth (that’s ironically dumb). Who knows? Maybe you have published something of value here.
On an average day, people find you annoying. On a good day, we are embarrassed for you.
Instead of arguing or attacking, how about some content. Maybe you could find some hidden gem of real estate data from a very credible source. Give it a try. I am thinking you may not be as completely stupid as you sound.
Biff
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Dear Housing Patrolman,
I didn't see your Zillow graph until after I had posted my above commentary. Your graph has value. And it's relevant.
Bully for you. I knew you had it in you.
Keep on that track. People will begin to listen and generate some respect for you.
Biff
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Oakland, CA
Housing Patrolman,
The scale on your plot does support your argument. If you look at the plot since before 2008 and calculate a tread-line, sure the market is tanking. But let's look at it a bit deeper.
Using your preferred site and zooming in a bit, I notice the following:
- YoY median selling price is +2.7%
- QoQ median selling price is +11.8%
Median sale price was $278K in Feb and $320K in April. That's a pretty strong 2 month surge and consist with what I have been experiencing trying to pick up a rental over the past few months. Zillow is also delayed, and the trend is upward.
Time will tell whether this 2 month surge is noise or not. I need to pick up a couple rentals, so I certainly hope it's noise!
BayArea
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Boulder Creek, CA
Yep, it just means stepping away from purchasing until winter time (which is what I'm doing) and hope that this is just a blip. With the next recession coming up, I have a feeling it will be.
I'm not going to pay bubble prices for a home here. If worse comes to worse, I'll move into my Santa Cruz home and enjoy my $600 a year property tax and just retire. lol
I'd prefer to buy my own house instead of having one handed to me, but it is what it is.
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Dear Housing Patrolman,
I hope this is my last email on the subject of you.
I think home prices will continue to drop. I don't know that they will but that is my guess based on the data I have seen and my experience in the market. I am betting on prices dropping.
I don't know that home prices will continue to drop and neither do you. You might want to peruse a dictionary and look at the words "truth" and "impotent".
Biff
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tatupu70 says
That's because of the limited inventory on MLS... Take off your rose colored glasses as you cruise around the neighborhoods and be aware of the "shadow inventory" in NJ. (Hint, it's the ones with the uncut grass).
As I cruise through different parts of the state, I am seeing more and more abandoned houses that weren't there months ago... and there is no realtor sign on the front yard...
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tatupu70 says
Please get in touch with my mother in law and make an offer, she is thrilled to know it's now officially a sellers market since nothing around her in Essex county is selling at all, except at heavy discounts. There are something like 500 properties scheduled for for essex county sherrifs sales in the next month. That's not a good sign.
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bob2356 says
Same thing happening in other counties, too. Here is a article link for tatupu70 from the Union County web site (the area he is looking). This why many houses aren't on the MLS, they are in foreclosure!!!
http://ucnj.org/government/county-clerk/new-jerseys-looming-foreclosure-crisis/
From the article: "Still, an enormous backlog of pending foreclosures — estimated by New Jersey officials at 50,000 to 100,000 cases has built up because of the moratoriums, other legal proceedings, and the negotiations over the national settlement."
"The latter potentially opens the door for a surge in new filings by lifting the major legal cloud over the big banks. Their $26 billion payment would prevent states from bringing charges over the most frequent allegations of fraud and false swearing in foreclosures."
That's why I told you to rent for now, you'll find a house for a lot less in the future...
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Housing Patrolman says
And you will be unemployed along with 60% of the population if home prices cratered that much more.
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Call it Crazy says
I'm not denying that is the case, but I didn't see any in the areas I was looking at.
I've been hearing about the shadow inventory for years now. Why in the hell would banks continue to hold on to their properties with inventory extremely low, houses selling in less than 1 week at over asking price?? That just doesn't make any sense.
I looked at foreclosure.com and unless I want to live in N. Plainfield or Roselle Park, there didn't seem to be much there...
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bob2356 says
I didn't look much in Essex county--I was in Union county.
Do you think I'm making this up? I'm looking to buy a house in NJ, not sell one. I'd love it if prices were tanking and I had lots of inventory to choose from. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. I'm just telling it like I saw it last week.
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Call it Crazy says
Maybe--but I'm not sure foreclosures in Newark or Trenton, or even Plainfield will cause prices to drop in Westfield or Cranford.
Further--the areas I was looking at are pretty much at rental parity, if not cheaper to own already. A crappy 3/2 that needs work rents for $2500.
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tatupu70 says
Simple law of supply and demand. If the banks let loose with all the shadow inventory at once, prices would crash down bigtime!! They would lose even more money on the underwater mortgages they are holding.
By releasing houses a little at at time, they are trying to create another bubble and start bidding wars, which they hope, will drive prices up for their shadow inventory (reducing their liability). It's a simple marketing trick just like the retailers do for Christmas by offering limited quantities.
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tatupu70 says
Welcome to the beautiful state of New Jersey!!!!!!!!!!!
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Call it Crazy says
Except they forgot to release the properties! Where are they?? Inventory is ridiculously low right now. Where are the foreclosures??
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tatupu70 says
Westfield is it's own market by itself and has it's own "cult" following. Only the people with deep pockets can afford to live there.
If you want a nice "family area" you should look at Monmouth County. It is a train ride to Rahway. It depends on what type of commute you want but neighborhoods and pricing is better than Union County.
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It's gonna happen by Christmas. Best time to buy is between 12-20 to 1-15, I mean get an offer accepted.