Flood of Shadow Real Estate Inventory about to hit the market will drive prices further down. My friend who works for B of A Foreclosure Dept informed me the National HUD moratorium was lifted last month in which they expect the next big wave of foreclosures to hit throughout the end of 2012 and 2013. The media cannot broadcast this because this information will cause potential buyers to hold off on buying properties which will further drive the prices down which will cause the banks to lose more money. Awe, poor executives at the banks…after they fraudulently used the gov’t bail out money to give themselves gigantic bonus, do we really feel sorry for them?
Below is what the media has posted so far as they do not want to publicize how grim the outlook really is.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/us-foreclosure-idUSBRE83319E20120404
Flood of Shadow Real Estate Inventory about to hit the market will drive prices
By Lynnettemarcene Follow Mon, 11 Jun 2012, 4:49pm 8,638 views 85 comments
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Margaret Has A HorseFace @ #34,
Just read your comment about being "shocked". Being the spur of the moment & without links for backup,I can remember those that thought home prices would end in middle 1950's prices. This was around 2-3 years ago.
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Margaret Has A HorseFace,
My Bad:adjusted for inflation.
http://boingboing.net/2011/03/04/us-house-prices-fall.html
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I went to the open house this weekend. Nice community built in 1995. At that time there were selling these new homes for $245k (2,700 sq ft). Prices in 2005 were at $845k and now they are at $715k. I don't think they would ever go to 1995 prices but how much you think they would sell for when that bubble bursts completly?
I think that median family income in that area is close to or a little bit over $100k.
I still cannot imagine that these houses would go down as much as to $300k - $350k.
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@Lynnetemarcene
Heard this story a couple years ago. How do we know it's gonna be for real this time?
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People are still stretching to buy a house. Job loss is still a potent threat and globalisation and free trade are accepted as the gospel truth by both parties and Presidential candidates.
Housing will have to match the new reality. I remmebr back when a million dollar home was something rare. Then the boom came and every track home in places like Dublin and San Ramon came close to a million or more. 300-400k would be the right place-all things considered.
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GraooGra says
Here's your math.... $100K income * 2.5 = $250K house....
It could drop that far.... (back to their $275K new price in 1995)
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tdeloco says
The "shadow" is there and TRUE!! The question is not, IF but WHEN, and no one knows....
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OK people, I believe you!
However, when I come to that web site I feel like I live in an alternate reality.
I put an offer on the foreclosure a month ago. It was a "multiple bidding" situation. I said "screw it I'm not going to go crazy and outbid myself and gave up".
Today this same house sold for $140k more than I offered and $100k more than selling price !!!
Tell me why we would have such a catastrophic downturn when everybody drinks that 'cool-aid' again?
Times are so crazy right now that I really need some kind of faith to stay rational myself. Just convince me some more. I'm losing it...seriously!
We try to be rational, calculate our price range, prepare our down payment, we make sure our credit score is good, we go through the lending process. We check comps, we check the neighborhood schools, inspect houses 4 times, talk to neighbors, research, and study the market conditions and current situation. We understand laws of supply and demand, we know inflation rate, we use buy vs. rent scenarios calculator. We consider additional costs of owning, pros and cons of renting.
We tried to buy a short sale house 2 years ago. Waited with our offer for four mounts and finally learning that the bank took someone else's offer which was about $20k lower than our offer and we were better qualified buyers anyway.
Now, this one was bought by someone for $140k more. Does it even make sense? Does even any logical, mathematical law apply in that type of environment?
You try to learn, you try to prepare, you do everything you possibly can and it still doesn’t work!
There is no book, no web site, no blog, no agent, no prescription which could help you to get the house you want at the price you feel is right. I feel it is just plain and ugly luck or a lot of cash which regular person doesn't have anyway.
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GraooGra says
Because one house or one situation doesn't make a trend!! Take a step back and look at the BIG picture in the COMPLETE country, not just your little local area of CA!!
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Call it Crazy says
I know. Our neighbors and friends are telling us "don't worry. If we were to buy our own house today we wouldn't be able to afford it".
It is still something you are yearning for and start obsess about after a while, especially if it is impossible to get.
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GraooGra says
I saw your comment in my email, wanted to reply, and then discovered we are neighbors along the 101 corridor.
I am just as perplexed why properties along the 101 corridor from Ventura to Los Angeles are still higher priced than even other California cities. Price certain Orange County cities, Long Beach, and San Diego and you will see for yourself.
True, and apartment is an address, but I do 'want' a small property here.
For whatever it is worth, I have looked online for 3 years, with prices slowly declining in the low end, the pitiful offererings from the banks, and have not once even come close to 'wanting' to put in an offer. For my job, I would need to stay in this area.
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Enlarge chart for excitement.
We will never drop to 110 much less 100 because house values only rise.LOL
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/updating-the-case-shiller-100-chart-forecast/
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HEY YOU says
And also for your entertainment, it wasn't long ago, Mr. Patrick was considered: "Three years ago, plenty of folks considered Patrick Killelea to be a loony tune raving about real estate Armageddon."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/09/24/BUKCS4NNB.DTL&ao=all
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Nothing has really changed regarding the flim/flam aspect of the housing market, it's as dishonest a trade/business as ever, especially with 5-10% foreign investment coming in, on top of the investors the banks have lined up.
It's a game of capital, having connections, and having piles of money sitting around, you either got it or you don't.
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This guy Lanning shit on the Poobah. Never forget.
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APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says
Oh! Matt Lanning, he is 'in' the article, one of the criminal psychopaths, got it! thanks, fuck him.
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Margaret Has A HorseFace says
LOL! The scum. I don't need to know what he did, he's dog meat..
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GraooGra says
wait or buy elsewhere, these prices do not reflect a sane market. 10 year of inflation perhaps, but now; no.
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Foreclosures are starting to spike. Maybe the banks finally figured out that loan mods don't work, and letting underwater owners squat for eternity isn't a profitable business model:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/14/real_estate/foreclosures/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2
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Goran_K says
It pretty amazing.. I guess the banks didn't want to originally foreclose because then they would have to show the loss on the books, so if they just let the owners "squat" they could hold the note at it's original value...
I think the sheer number of squaters has risen so high and they have so many non-performing loans on the books, they have to start clearing out the "old wood"...
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Yup, it's simple really. They can pretend things are good on the books by keeping the bad non-performing assets, or actually make money by foreclosing and turning them into performing assets by selling them at market value to people who can actually afford the house.
This choice would be easy for any private enterprise not receiving billions of dollars in government welfare money.
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tatupu70 says
Definitely juvenile trolls under the age of 12 and with the analytical skills of a slug. At least Call it Crazy backs up his/her arguments.
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House Sheriff says
I'm still waiting for Tat to back up his....
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Call it Crazy says
What are you looking for? I usually post links to back up my facts...
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Foreclosures up for first time in 27 months
By Anna Louie Sussman
NEW YORK | Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:56am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/14/us-usa-housing-realtytrac-idUSBRE85D05P20120614
(Reuters) - Foreclosure starts rose year-over-year in May for the first time in more than two years as banks resumed dealing with distressed properties after a mortgage abuse settlement earlier this year, data firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
Foreclosure starts grew 12 percent from April and 16 percent on an annual basis after 27 straight months of year-over-year declines. Foreclosure starts were filed on 109,051 homes in May, the first month-to-month rise since March.
Bank repossessions increased 7 percent after sinking to a 49-month low in April, with 54,844 homes repossessed in May.
"That the May numbers were up the month after that settlement was completed is an indication that lenders are more confident that there are clear ground rules to foreclose now, so they can play by the rules," said Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac's vice-president.
This quote is for my buddy Tat:
...."New Jersey continued April's trend, with 1,136 foreclosure starts in May, an annual rise of 118 percent. In April, foreclosure starts rose 180 percent annually."
"Short sales were up 25 percent in the first quarter of 2012, reaching a three-year high, since lenders can often fetch a higher price in a short sale than if they repossess them and then put them back on the market.
By moving houses out of the so-called "shadow inventory" and onto the market, the increase in foreclosures could be a drag on the fragile U.S. housing recovery."
Conclusion.... based on this article, don't plan on housing prices rising any time soon!!!!
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tatupu70 says
I think you're confused.. a link is what I just posted in the Reuters article above.... we haven't seen links from you, just spout-offs...
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whenever there is a buying mania it's a safe bet to say that there is another bubble in the making... the current buying mania is reminiscent of the heady days of 2004, it definitely does not signify normal sustainable demand.
These are investors trying to make a quick buck gambling that prices will rise OR buyers on the fence thinking they will be priced out forever if they don't act now. We have seen both groups in the bubble that elapsed and we know what happened to the market after that.
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Call it Crazy, small favor if possible, but could you stop quoting tatupu70? I originally ignored him because he was turning a lot of threads into bull vs bear troll arguments, I'm not saying his points aren't valid for consideration, but I'm trying to cut down on the clutter so I can read non-emotional-troll post. But since you've been quoting him it's like the arguments are starting all over again.
I think you add a lot to the discussions here, but the petty arguments get tiresome.
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Goran_K says
Sorry, I keep telling myself to ignore him but then he states something nuts.... OK, no more responses to him...
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Call it Crazy says
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Goran_K says
Yes, it's much easier to read posts from only those who agree with you.
Unfortuntately, you'll find that you will be caught off guard quite frequently.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink
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Call it Crazy says
Really? Something nuts? Could you please show me one example of anything I've said that could be possibly be interpreted as "nuts"?
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Call it Crazy says
really?
Do these posts look familiar?
http://www.patrick.net/forum/?p=1213340#comment-834135
http://www.patrick.net/forum/?p=1213195#comment-832721
http://www.patrick.net/forum/?p=1213371#comment-834796
If there's something I post with no backup, just ask for a source. I'll be happy to post it.
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http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/topics/real-estate/
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Lynnettemarcene says
Lynnette,
Those were not investors. They were speculators who got caught with their pants down. They deserve to lose money.
The new wave of speculators are FHA buyers. They're consistently outbidding investors and other conventional buyers. Who's driving house prices to unaffordability? It's those speculators with minimal skin in the games.
Although I bought my first investment property in 1999, I was a speculator at that time, not an investor. I've only been investing and flipping just about 4 years now. The true investors and mentors that I hang out with sold most of their investment holdings in 2005-2006. They've been buying properties back since late 2008 till now. Basically, they let the numbers (yields) determine their entry and exit points.
Some of Patnet readers are pretty savvy. They rent where it makes sense and buy/invest where the numbers make sense. One size doesn't fit all.
Also, we've been hearing about the foreclosure floodgate since 2009. At this point, I'll believe it when I see it. In the mean time, there will be low housing inventory in the Peninsula and South Bay for the next 4-6 months based in the data I'm seeing daily. I do hope for another foreclosure wave to hit though.
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I think that there are two housing markets. One for rich investors and one for the average home buyer. On many occasions I have looked at Redfin and have seen great homes sold for very low prices. But I suspect that the good deals primarily going to investors, realtors, or others that have an in on the market. The banks will except a low cash offer from and investor before excepting a higher priced offer from an average person with traditional financing. So looking back at the data may show lower priced homes but it most likely was sold to someone with cash. Meanwhile the rest of us home buyers are left competing for the high priced flipped homes. It just not fair :(
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Carolyn C says
Rich people don't see housing as an investment. If they did, they wouldn't be rich in the first place.
If real-estate is an investment, it's one that pays negative dividends in the form of property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. Do you want an investment that pays negative dividends? I do not.
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Pleasanton, CA
Oh, so there are not investors buying up homes?
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Carolyn C says
I have no idea. Are they planning on becoming landlords? Or are they just speculating?
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Lynnettemarcene says
If you knew anything about how HUD operates, you'd know that there is no such thing as secret moratorium decrees sent to banks. All HUD operations are VERY public and announced real time through their website and through a press conference.
The fact that you're going with "My friend told me" shows how ridiculous this is. People who work in a bank foreclosure department aren't exactly highly paid executives. Most would sell out a secret HUD directive for 50 bucks.
Here's what HUD is actually doing:
HUD Announces New, Anti-Foreclosure Efforts to Stabilize Home Prices
http://reversemortgagedaily.com/2012/06/10/hud-announces-new-anti-foreclosure-efforts-to-stabilize-home-prices/