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Why So Few Homes Are on the Market


By tovarichpeter   Follow   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 1:19am PDT   5,090 views   27 comments
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http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-06-11/why-so-few-homes-are-on-the-market

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Call it Crazy   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 7:21am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)     Comment 1

Calling Roberto, where are you??

...."It’s no surprise then that cities such as Bakersfield, Calif., and Phoenix have seen some of the sharpest decline in inventory over the past year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. “The presence of negative equity … restricts the ability of owners to list their homes for sale as the demand side of the market improves,” Sam Khater, a senior economist at CoreLogic, says in the report."

tatupu70   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 8:40am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 2

Call it Crazy says

The presence of negative equity … restricts the ability of owners to list their homes for sale as the demand side of the market improves,” Sam Khater, a senior economist at CoreLogic, says in the report."

Who cares? Lower supply with constant demand = higher prices.

If you want to argue that there are lots of owners with negative equity that will sell when/if prices rise and that will put a ceiling on the rise in prices, I might agree.

But if this article is correct, it certainly doesn't imply that prices will fall any time soon.

tatupu70   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 8:43am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 3

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

And demand is at 15 year lows and falling

Source?

tatupu70   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 8:46am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 4

ok--here's what I found:

http://news.yahoo.com/us-home-sales-across-country-hopeful-sign-181544778--finance.html

bubblesitter   Tue, 12 Jun 2012, 2:27pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 5

What's new? Severely underwater home owners can't list/sell. Banks holding the foreclosed one are underwater too,so banks can't sell either. Lastly,the first 2 situations applies to short sales as well. This market is going to be depressed for several more years.

misc_login   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 1:20am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 6

tatupu70 says

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

And demand is at 15 year lows and falling

Source?

by "demand" what are you referring to? It's probably not mortgage applications right? http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/13/us-usa-economy-mortgages-idUSBRE85C0JK20120613

Here's a Forbes article from a year ago, where they link "demand" to mortgage application, where at the time, it was dipping/shrinking/contracting:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2011/06/21/mortgage-demand-wanes-despite-historically-low-interest-rates/

HEY YOU   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 1:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 7

It's Spring-Summer, the EURO zone is great, employment is going to skyrocket & housing only appreciates. I'm such an optimist.

tatupu70   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 4:58am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 8

Fred Flintstone says

eh.... demand as in sales. (shaking head)
Hint: It's a 1997 levels and falling.

You make me laugh. Do you think if you keep writing that enough it will make it true?

Or are you trying to convince yourself?

tatupu70   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 5:04am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 9

Fred Flintstone says

Sales are at 1997 levels. How many years ago was that? I'll do math for your ethically challenged liars.

I see your problem again. You're a little behind the data. Sales were at 1997 levels last winter, but have risen quite a bit since then. Sales were ahead of last year in March and April.

dunnross   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 5:55am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 10

HRHMedia says

Why So Few Homes Are on the Market!

Because so many owners are under water and, they figured, it's better for them to squat than to sell. Banks are hiding inventory, because, they are playing on the emotions of foolish knife-catchers, as they try to dump some of their shadow inventory on the few fools still willing to pay inflated prices, just before, the bottom drops out.

bubblesitter   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 5:59am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike     Comment 11

HRHMedia says

Why So Few Homes Are on the Market!

because !SALARIES HAVE NOT RISEN in 50 years! Infact against inflation they have gone down..

Pretend,ignore,and extend - slow the bleeding.

dunnross   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 6:00am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 12

tatupu70 says

I see your problem again. You're a little behind the data. Sales were at 1997 levels last winter, but have risen quite a bit since then. Sales were ahead of last year in March and April.

Sales are now falling, not rising:

The National Association of Realtors, the sector’s main trade group, said Wednesday its seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes decreased 5.5% on a monthly basis to 95.5, the weakest showing since December.

Call it Crazy   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 9:52am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (4)     Comment 13

Just a little local intel from today...

Went out and took a ride for a few hours to take a quick look at some houses on MLS.... Noticed a bunch with signs on the lawns and after further research, many had been on the market for a while... Just rode up and down different side roads to check out the territory...

The BIGGEST shock I saw, virtually every neighborhood road I went down had at least one "shadow" house on it. No realtor sign on the lawn, the tell tale town sticker on the front door, and I could tell they had been sitting for a long time empty.

Way more "shadow" houses then I would expect in this area... this tells the "true" story where the housing recovery is going.... DOWN!!

inflection point   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 1:00pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 14

The inventory is tight because:

1. Forclosures make up a signifcant part of sales and foreclosure pipeline was slowed by the robo signing lawsuit.
2. Banks are switching to short sales because it is more financially beneficial.
3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear.
4. Its spring and summer, this is the height of the buying season.
5. At the lower end there are lots of investors so thus competition
6. the article also suggests that proplr who might like to sell are underwater and cannot.

dunnross   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 2:47pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 15

inflection point says

3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear.

I can just see the shock and awe when they realize that they missed the boat, as the market starts the 2nd of the 3-downleg stages in this multi-decade bust.

lotr1978   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 3:18pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 16

I have been watching the Phoenix market for several years and Roberto is not lying about these numbers. The inventory just started drying up, the builders that remain are doing quite well it seems. In Phoenix no one left but many became renters due to job loss or choice (walk aways). Building is once again on the outskirts in less desirable locations.

Now I do see inventory sitting at the >250k price range both in downtown and in the suburbs. But 5 years ago these houses were twice the price

Edit: Roberto I actually did send an email to you at your gmail account about real estate. It came from my yahoo acct.

dunnross   Sun, 17 Jun 2012, 4:03pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 17

lotr1978 says

But 5 years ago these houses were twice the price

The multi-decade housing bust will be in 3 phases. Phase 1, or the 1st leg, which is already behind us, has taken prices down 50%, followed by a dead cat bounce. The 2nd leg will take prices down another 50% of the remaining 50%. And finally, the 3rd phase another 50%, for a total of 87.5% from the peak.

dunnross   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 1:06am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 18

robertoaribas says

last 30 days: 8351 closed
active: 12,933

+ another 100,000 in the shadow = 13.5 month supply

AF fan   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 6:59am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 19

Roberto is certainly a shill. In fact there seem to be quite a few NAR shills on here now. Well, at least Patrick is costing them (the NAR) money. Thank you Patrick.

Call it Crazy   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 1:30pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (3)     Comment 20

inflection point says

The inventory is tight because:

1. Foreclosures make up a signifcant part of sales and foreclosure pipeline was slowed by the robo signing lawsuit.
2. Banks are switching to short sales because it is more financially beneficial.
3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear.
4. Its spring and summer, this is the height of the buying season.
5. At the lower end there are lots of investors so thus competition
6. the article also suggests that people who might like to sell are underwater and cannot.

Yep, all of the above!!

dunnross   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 1:39pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)     Comment 21

robertoaribas says

What a freaking mental nitwit!

You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies.

True Real House Sheriff   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 3:04pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 22

dunnross says

You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies.

Even if I disagree with some of the things this guy says, this random quip made me LOL big time.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 8:22pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 23

The Real House Sheriff says

dunnross says

You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies.

Even if I disagree with some of the things this guy says, this random quip made me LOL big time.

Yeah, and what kind of maroon puts sun glasses on a dog, anyway?

TechGromit   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 9:10pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 24

HRHMedia says

Stop the BUBBLES! NO TO BUBBLES!

Bubbles are part of the normal rise and fall of the economy. Bubbles have existed for centuries, and will continue to occur in the future. Bubbles are a normal part of the expansion, contraction economy. Extreme bubbles however are not. If the banks and regulators didn't relax there borrowing standards, the housing market would have topped out in 2003 or 2004, and we probably would have just seen a small recession afterwards. Instead of the massive bubble were still dealing with the after affects today.

TechGromit   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 9:14pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 25

dunnross says

Because so many owners are under water and, they figured, it's better for them to squat than to sell. Banks are hiding inventory, because, they are playing on the emotions of foolish knife-catchers, as they try to dump some of their shadow inventory on the few fools still willing to pay inflated prices, just before, the bottom drops out.

Actually I think the banks were pretty smart not dumping all there inventory on the open market, they are getting better prices for there inventory by keeping the available inventory for sale tight. I do however question how long there inventory that is not for sale will continue to be desirable. At this rate it's going to take over 10 years to clear there existing inventory, houses that are vacant for years, if not a decade tend to get trashed given enough time.

TechGromit   Mon, 18 Jun 2012, 9:20pm PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 26

robertoaribas says

dunnross says

robertoaribas says

What a freaking mental nitwit!

You are a f*n moron yourself, and your dog is ugly and has rabies.

another excellent fact filled post! Bravo! You sir are choc-o-bloc full of relevant real estate news based on careful analysis, and witty comments!

I see friends listed for "dunross", but no enemies. Perhaps we need a new option listed for user profiles. :)

bubblesitter   Tue, 19 Jun 2012, 12:34am PDT   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 27

inflection point says

The inventory is tight because:

1. Forclosures make up a signifcant part of sales and foreclosure pipeline was slowed by the robo signing lawsuit.

2. Banks are switching to short sales because it is more financially beneficial.

3. Some potential home sellers are watching the market from the sidelines waiting for the market to appear.

4. Its spring and summer, this is the height of the buying season.

5. At the lower end there are lots of investors so thus competition

6. the article also suggests that proplr who might like to sell are underwater and cannot.

7. There are absolutely no move up opportunities,and hence very low number of listing.
8. Tremendous decrease in income for some people who very in a position to afford before and now they can't.
9. New graduates are reeling with shit load of student loan debt and can't jump on the housing band wagon as soon as they land their low paying first job!
10. Pressure on govt. budget has put immense pressure on govt. spending that brings some $ into economy.

Tell me a few reasons why house prices should go up?

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