WatchPersonally, I would do better if the market had stayed down for years after the crash. I have no plans to sell any of my properties, so appreciation means nothing to me, it is just a number on paper. I am buying properties for the CASH FLOW only, with plans to live the rest of my life off the rental income.
So, when i post facts about the Phoenix market, facts which I carefully study to guide my own investments, I do without a preconceived bias to look for the positive indicators.
Facts such as:
1. Low inventory, Less than 13,000 for the past couple months.
2. Strong demand, over 8000 closed a month for several months.
3. Multiple offers on most reasonably priced homes under 250K, within days of listing.
4. drops in the number of available short sales, under 900 now.
5. drops in the pending short sales, down to 13,000 from 20,000 a few months ago.
6. slightly rising rents in all areas that I own rentals.
7. 30% rise year over year in asking prices.
8. Only modest increase in foreclosures, and notice of future foreclosures, hence no visible pending tsunami of distressed properties, post robosigning scandal.
These facts galvanized me to move quickly, buying 2 more homes over the past 2 months, and putting 4 more under contracts a couple months ago, short sales as those are the best values around today.
Whenever I post my analysis, instantly, they are pounced on by brain dead idiots, calling them lies, etc. Well, if these nitwits care to share some fact and intelligent debate could occur, but instead, they sling insults and market predictions based on wishful thinking rather than analysis. Whatever, sorry your, but you might try reality some time, rather than living in a fictional world!
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The only reason you post on here is because you are terrified your plan is going to bankrupt you. If you are looking for the younger generation to enrich you then you are going to be bitterly disappointed. We have a temporary blip in the market that will resume falling once the temporary stimulus have been removed. Time is the buyers friend whilst you bleed cash.
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I would prefer all these supermodels not crowd around my house, begging to blow me because I only have one dick and even with my herculean sexual prowess only three supermodels at a time can enjoy the Olympian glories of Me.
Also, I am a very nice guy and prefer not to leave busloads of supermodels disappointed and frustrated, sobbing inconsolably for hours waiting for their turn.
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You normally find that people that brag about money in reality have none. It is the quiet people that have the money who do not want to draw attention to themselves. The way you rant shows me you are an overleveraged loser.
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Ross, CA
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Tell me about it. Some chick named Kate Upton has been texting me nude pictures and calling me at all hours of the night. Sure, she's hot, but take a number honey, take a number.
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rooemoore says
Oh, hey, I hear you. And they've all got these sob stories about having walked on a foreclosure in Phoenix.
Sad but what can you do?
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Ross, CA
APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
I say, "fuck em!"
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Ross, CA
Strategic Renter says
So true, so true...
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Strategic Renter says
Agree. It's like the guy who always talks about his car, but has a bank account that is empty, and bums rides off everyone because he "just filled up" 3 weeks ago.
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“So far, I've landed a couple of buys but would love to add more to the portfolio. Many people wonder where this money comes from. I will admit, I work in the tech industry and joined many successful startups.” Ladies!!! and you know who you are, STEP RIGHT UP! Here is a TYCOOON who can take you places!!, dang pudgy you should change that picture to a proud Duckhead. Shake that tailfeather BOOM BOOM!
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IWOG was awesome while he was here.
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I get a kick out of the guy who looks like a duck raving about being a real estate tycoon. Almost as much as the guy from Phoenix who puts sun glasses on his dog.
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Robert, why are you acting like a goon? Yes, you parade your real name all over the internet, you own a lot of properties in Arizona, good for you.
Just because people don't agree with you doesn't mean "their lives must suck!" Calling people coward, stupid, brain dead idiots, or moron, doesn't really do much for getting people to listen to your "real world analysis". In fact it makes you come off as insecure, and unsure of yourself.
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Ross, CA
Goran_K says
To be truthful, most of the mud slinging on this site(in the real estate forums) comes from the housing bears. While I consider myself a moderate housing bear in most markets, I am amazed by the vitriol spewed here on a regular basis at anyone who suggests the the worst may be over. Make a post where you say you feel that housing has bottomed and the hate starts pouring in.
I think guys like Robert are posting their successes here just to rub it in and piss off the "renters". It is provocative an somewhat trollish -- Robert should know better at this point -- it is also understandable.
BTW, there is a brain dead idiot on these forums who calls anyone she disagrees with a liar. She keeps changing her name and I filtered her out with the ignore feature long ago. I'm guessing he is mostly referring to her or posters like her.
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"I think guys like Robert are posting their successes"
Being in as much debt as this Realtor is hardly success.
More like a giant freeking gamble.
He's here trying to convince and calm himself in the face of a terribly uncertain future.
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Ross, CA
pazuzu says
You may be right. It is a risk, that is for sure. I get that. Of course if he did in fact time it right, he will get the last laugh. If not, he may be screwed.
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Here in Beach cities SoCal we are nowhere near the bottom. We have SFR at 7x median income. This is unsustainable and prices are still falling.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
Strategic Renter says
I can believe that. In the above $500k market in Phoenix, where price to rent makes no sense so investors aren't buying, prices appear to still be slowly dropping here.
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Ross, CA
Strategic Renter says
If it is a nice place near the ocean of course it will be 7x median income because the people with median incomes won't be the ones buying there. But it is true that the overbuilt communities inland a bit - Mission Viejo for example - will see prices continue to slide, imo.
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Los Angeles, CA
Well this board USED TO BE a real estate board. Now its ranting, insults and jokes with some RE mixed in to spur more of the ranting.
I used to think housing was in a bubble in 1999. But it wasnt. I was really really sure it was but was using wishful thinking and zero facts or analysis other than 'it cost too much'.
The most powerful people on the planet (the US fed gov, the internantional banks, the federal reserve, the congress, the white house, plus all existing owners) have been passing laws, printing trillions of dollars, letting losers squat for free for years to make prices GO BACK UP. And they did it. NONE OF THIS is temporary. When the feds do something the never stop. All govt programs are permanent. All temporary taxes get extended. Wake up people.
I'm planning on looking to buy starting september to try and avoid the 'must buy b4 school starts' clueless crowd.
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Ross, CA
PockyClipsNow says
I think you will have a lot of choices next winter.
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Tarzana, CA
For whatever it is worth, everyone I work with knows I follow RE and have not bought anything yet here in CA. A coworker comes up to me and mentions her friend who does 'everything' in RE, broker, loans, escrow, etc. told her she does not think it is the housing market bottom here in CA yet, that short sales are just beginning to clear the bank, thus, she is not buying here in CA yet either.
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Los Angeles, CA
Winter should be better time to buy I hope.
To determine future prices you have to accurately guess what the FEDS will do + understand economics. Really difficult.
How does the brain trust here think the nov election will effect RE prices?!? I'm hoping the news is completely taken over by the nonsense, lies, and gibber jabber enought to distract people from thier 'must buy now' mind set (to allow me to buy now!!! ha!).
If Romney is close enouh in the polls to look like he might win (impossible IMO) then this MIGHT create uncertainty in the mind of the house buyer and you MIGHT see a small, very brief time period from Sept to Nov when there are much fewer buyers. THIS IS THE TIME TO STRIKE and make lowballs everywhere. But it might not happen this way. (after 911 for 3 months NO BODDY was buying RE, then it took off to the moon).
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Madison, WI
Lol, it's rising so fast because people like OP scrambling to buy as many as they can.
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Emeryville, CA
http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/14/12203711-foreclosure-activity-jumps-in-troubling-sign-for-housing-recovery?lite
What about this?
"Foreclosure activity jumps in troubling sign for housing recovery"
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Emeryville, CA
The sand states are still dark red.
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San Jose, CA
I can’t recall any single political rumor e.g. election year, republican or democrat president, new budget etc., to have direct impact on real estate prices, employment, salary or interest rate. So I suggest bypassing it. Low inventory is a fact now and huge number of buyers coming out of fence, intrigued by rising rent and media info: “2012 landlord year”, “best affordability in years”, “lowest interest in years”, “best time to buy”, finely decided to buy.
Has been notice rising inventory in expensive areas, where rich see an opportunity now to get rid of expensive houses. Additionally, some recent cash buyers put their houses for sale. It is hard to bypass to earn extra 50-100K in a very short time. Meaning, they also do not believe the current run-up with prices is going to sustain.
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Emeryville, CA
robertoaribas says
I don't have a horse in this race, but I'm trying to figure it all out. In my estimation (and from the links I provided) I don't see how the other shoe won't drop.
I hope you buy all of Phoenix!
At best, it would seem like a decade of low to no appreciation. Wages are flat, savings are zero, credit is decimated, subprime gone, etc.
Lateral or down would be all that makes sense unless supply was artificially restricted.
Maricopa county has 1 in 249 foreclosed in May? Is that right?
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Emeryville, CA
Couldn't embed my image. :(
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Los Angeles, CA
http://www.housingwire.com/news/fed-considers-funding-lending-program
I'm working on an assumption that int rates will be this low OR MUCH LOWER the rest of our lives.
They are following the japan ZIRP model to sustain the zombie banks/asset prices. Since there will be zero growth - asset prices will go up or stay the same from ever lower int rates. There is a ALOT OF ROOM for rates to go down. Imagine buying a 1m home with a 30 year fixed mortgage at 1%. The payment would be totally affordable. THats where we are headed.
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San Jose, CA
Let see; 500K mortgage with 4% … can buy $742K mortgage with 1% interest.
Japan, US, and the rest of the world are run by the same banking cartel anyway.
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robertoaribas says
Your doing the right thing here. My hats off to you ! your not flipping or gambling on skyrocketing prices. And yes, its better to have zero or low price inflation.
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PockyClipsNow says
In the SF Bay Area and Boston... well above the norm....bubbles..
For LA it was normal.. lucky you in SoCal.
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rooemoore says
My personal take on Roberto is that I'm happy he is successful with his rentals, but I really get tired hearing about his"Phoenix" market all the time. His little "slice" of the housing market there doesn't apply to the rest of the country.
There are many people on here from all over the country (a lot from CA, I'm on the east coast), so constantly hearing from him about Phoenix and his trying to make it apply to everyone else's region gets tiring...
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robertoaribas says
Come on over to the East Coast, I'll show you plenty of markets that not only have stayed down after the crash, but are continuing down.... there's plenty to choose from!!
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PockyClipsNow says
Bingo. I thought houses were way expensive when id do my paper route in 1994. Being born in 1981, my entire life has been falling interest rates, and I agree, there is room to fall. Many peoples understanding of mathematics is so crap that they see the drop from 15%-14% and 5%-4% as being the same, a 1% drop in interest rates, rather then the difference of a 6.7% change vs a 20% change. That's the push/pull relationship we're sliming thru, rates fall 10% to account for what should be a drop in prices,,,,,so we remain flat but lose ground on how much longer that game can be drawn out, as we near the end of our proverbial rope,,,,,at the same time boomers begin retiring and the paradigm shift/inflection point is spread over a long period of time as that large demographic does a role reversal from those who have always driven prices upwards since first leveraging their starter homes and such over the course of 3-4 decades of trading up. At some point they need to sell all that crap and consume whatever savings and equity they have built up with their assets. At least they have the generations younger then them to step in behind them and buy up,,,,,all their crap at perpetually higher prices. Oh wait,,,,,,,,
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robertoaribas says
Boy, that's the truth.... the emotion always "clouds" the rational discussion...
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Laguna Beach, CA
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According to this chart, Arizona still has plenty of owners in negative equity situations (over 40%). How long will people onto their homes if their neighbors are buying into their neighborhoods for much, much less?
Nevada is just shocking, unreal.
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Call it Crazy says
what Roberto is doing is what people in the past were also doing!
buy a home as income property.. separate from personal residence.
priced at "not too hot and not too cold" ...
rent it out and keep it cash flow positive..
before the Bubble mania started -- it did apply to all parts of the country.
yes we are still in this nut case of a mania in parts of California...
where every shack is somehow special and commands at least $1 Million as a starter home.
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Goran_K says
At some point down the road.. they will just have to dump it and call it a day... it just isnt going anywhere...
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Goran_K says
That chart is scary for sure.... I wonder how they really crank those numbers. In an informal poll and research in my area (NJ), there are a lot more with negative equity than the 17%-18% on that chart.