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Housing Recovery?

By HEY YOU   Follow   Wed, 20 Jun 2012, 5:09pm   5,486 views   55 comments
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-housing-recovery-based-what

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1. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

   1   6:51pm Wed 20 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)   Get ready for the housing recovery..... or not.... Morgan Stanley: Home prices will fall another 5% to 8% http://www.housingwire.com/content/morgan-stanely-home-prices-will-fall-another-5-8 ..."Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict a 5% to 8% decline in home prices between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014." ..."In its latest report on the state of housing, they expect a prolonged bottom, with post-trough home prices growing mainly at the rate of the consumer price index." ..."Among nondistressed homes, prices will fall 5% to 10%, they said, notwithstanding historically high affordability metrics, driven mainly by continued constraints on mortgage credit availability." I wonder how far the prices will fall between now and the fourth quarter of 2013???

2. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

   2   8:00pm Wed 20 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says hmm, let's pull up some of their predictions from 2006 and 2007 for laughs! I wish you would...

3. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

   3   8:46pm Wed 20 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Go Ask Alice says A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition. it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices. infact they havent even talked about what normal prices means how they have behaved over the past decades.

4. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 328 threads 913 comments

   4   12:58pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Morgan Stanley: Home prices will fall another 5% to 8%. How about 10-20%?

5. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 168 threads 4,147 comments Premium

   5   12:59pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   Protected   More like another 70%

6. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 328 threads 913 comments

   6   1:07pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Several years ago a British man said to not buy a house until they fell 90% from peak. I've looked for the article & can't find it. It may have been removed to stop a panic.

7. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

   7   1:07pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   HEY YOU says Morgan Stanley: Home prices will fall another 5% to 8%. How about 10-20%? They like to be optimistic.....

8. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 328 threads 913 comments

   8   1:10pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Optimistic = Extend & Pretend. LOL

9. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,223 comments Premium

   9   1:26pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected   thomas.wong1986 says Go Ask Alice says A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition. it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices. I agree. It is very irritating to see media people call every price increase "good news for the housing market." Good news for any market means efficient clearance at fair market value, without artificial shortages (e.g. empty shadow inventory) or other distortions (government subsidizing incompetent bankers to subsidize delinquencies). However, while a 90% decline is conceivable, it is not very likely. It would require something like this: http://health.usnews.com/health-news/news/articles/2012/06/21/once-banned-bird-flu-study-yields-sobering-findings Stephen King's "The Stand" described a similar scenario, with a 100% drop in housing prices.

10. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,223 comments Premium

    10   1:35pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Really? so if prices fall to $0 would be a great recovery then? Ask your mom about that head drop game she played with you as a child! I'm starting to see why people say you're full of something. I don't even know what game you're talking about, but I'll leave your mom out of it.

11. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 328 threads 913 comments

    11   1:37pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   If robertoaribus says it then it must be true.

12. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,223 comments Premium

    12   1:46pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says sorry if the sarcasm went over your head... clearly you are clueless...your complete and utter ignorance. You don't sound sorry, and you don't seem to understand the difference between sarcasm and witless misplaced insults. Knowing your private unsourced definitions of common terms isn't an indicator of whether a person is educated. You do provide though a good example of where the Ignore feature can be useful.

13. HEY YOU Follow Befriend (4) 328 threads 913 comments

    13   1:51pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   It must be true if robertoaribus says it.

14. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    14   2:36pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says We have already seen a sales (volume) recovery, now in many markets, we are starting to see a price recovery. There you go, talking about your little "slice" of Phoenix again... You really need to get out in the real world...... volume, please.... Here, I'll help you with the BIG picture: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-crisis-not-enough-buy-151345032.html

15. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,223 comments Premium

    15   2:51pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says yes, dropping inventory... does that sound like a bad thing to a market? even to you?????? Inventory is being hidden in the shadows (REO, non-performing loans, etc.). Yes, that is a bad thing.

16. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    16   3:11pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   robertoaribas says robertoaribas says We have already seen a sales (volume) recovery, now in many markets, we are starting to see a price recovery. There you go, talking about your little "slice" of Phoenix again... You really need to get out in the real world...... volume, please.... Here, I'll help you with the BIG picture: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-crisis-not-enough-buy-151345032.html call you crazy: It helps if you learn how to READ the articles you link... first two paragraphs: Sales of existing homes declined in May, according to a new report from the National Association of Realtors, I DID read, and now you contradicted yourself.... So, which is it... sales (volume) recovery per your first comment?? OR "Sales of existing homes declined in May" as you quoted from the article...?? I don't think you can have it both ways..... so which one?? robertoaribas says There are currently 2.49 million for sale, a drop of 20 percent from a year ago. To make matters worse, supply is lowest on the low end Oh, another secret, price run up because of LIMITED inventory isn't a recovery, just a limited local "supply and demand issue"... ie: mini-bubble, NOT a RECOVERY!! Go re-read the article!!!

17. curious2 Follow Befriend (5) 31 threads 2,223 comments Premium

    17   3:14pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says Oh i see now! If inventory rises, it is bad for the housing market. If inventory falls, it is also bad for the housing market... got it! You're wrong four times in one post, possibly a new record. If inventory on the market reflects actual supply, that is good for the market because it means supply and demand can intersect at fair value. If inventory is artificially manipulated, e.g. government propping up banks to keep shadow inventory off the market, that is bad for the market.

18. inflection point Follow Befriend 4 threads 261 comments Fremont, CA

    18   7:45pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Just because banks have decided to halt foreclosure or turn to short sales does not mean this is a healthy market. Low inventory is bad for the housing market because demand cannot be satisfied. This time of year is prime selling time. It's not going to get better in the fall regardless of inventory.

19. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    19   8:02pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   robertoaribas says "inventory is being hidden in the shadows... blah blah blah" grow up seriously! the number of loans 90 days delinquent or in foreclosure is actually down by 30% compared to 2 years ago. It isn't going to disappear overnight, but if your theory were true, this statistic would be increasing, not decreasing. And, those tend to be highest in the judicial foreclosure states, i.e. NOT California or Arizona. And btw, those numbers are legally required financial reports for lenders, far more trustworthy than the silly shadow mystery numbers backing your scenario. You know, I was going to respond to you rant...... nevermind.... Oh boy....

20. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    20   9:46pm Thu 21 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Housing recovery? Moody's just downgraded 15 major banks including those with enormous liabilities in mortgage based assets (Bank of America anyone?): http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/21/investing/bank-downgrades/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1 Recovery? No, no, no, things are going to get even worse, and I was one of those who thought that we might be reaching the bottom this year. Kicking the can down the road just doesn't work.

21. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    21   6:15am Fri 22 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Goran_K says Recovery? No, no, no, things are going to get even worse, and I was one of those who thought that we might be reaching the bottom this year. Kicking the can down the road just doesn't work. Wait, but interest rates are at their all time lows.... I thought it was a GREAT time to buy!!!

22. ArtimusMaxtor Follow Befriend (3) 803 comments

    22   6:41am Fri 22 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas.wong1986 says Go Ask Alice says A "housing recovery" is dramatically lower prices by definition. it is remarkable for the self professed most informed in the media (journalists) to even talk about recovery by meaning higher prices. infact they havent even talked about what normal prices means how they have behaved over the past decades. Can charts give you an erection. Cause I think I got one.

23. ArtimusMaxtor Follow Befriend (3) 803 comments

    23   6:47am Fri 22 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike

24. TMAC54 Follow Befriend (9) 70 threads 930 comments San Leandro, CA

    24   7:28am Fri 22 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   recovery [rɪˈkʌvərɪ] n pl -eries 1. the act or process of recovering, esp from sickness, a shock, or a setback; recuperation 2. restoration to a former or better condition In the minds of both flippers or homeowners. Recovery means "return to 20% annual appreciation" They will have NO RECOVERY. Real property appreciation will return to normal rates of appreciation, (3 to 7% per yr.) AFTER gubmint intervention fails. Gubmint will not decide what the market will bear. They just waste trillions fortifying their image. "AN ICE CREAM CONE EVERY DAY" Such a cute little fool.

25. ArtimusMaxtor Follow Befriend (3) 803 comments

    25   10:08am Fri 22 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Maybe I am one of those sexually repressed business people. No fucking while your on the payroll. Maybe people like the idea of freedom so much. Because they have to work for their boss who is like a Dictator. Its as close to a Dictator as you can get. You wouldn't want to live under a Dictator now would you? Kind of like Jesus is your personal savior however he's your personal Dictator.

26. ArtimusMaxtor Follow Befriend (3) 803 comments

    26   11:49am Fri 22 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike

27. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    27   11:24am Sat 23 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   curious2 says However, while a 90% decline is conceivable, it is not very likely. It would require something like this: Rather depends on factors... how much hype you have as we heard during the boom. Places like Palo Alto even double down on over the top "Tech stock IPOs" Bubbles like Facebook... Im sure some people expected FB stock to be trading around $150/share on its way to $500. All tied to over the top optimistic hype (news) and frankly idiotic overpaying by buyers. Post 1989 peak saw 30-40% correction, so far we had 50% correction, and still not yet there... 90% correction, maybe not.. 70-80% is more likely.

28. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    28   11:34am Sat 23 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   roberto's perspective is where he is located the situation is not so bad, for several reasons. So, Phoenix is actually not a housing disaster at this moment. I was in Phoenix once, sitting in the airport on my way somewhere in late June. I looked out the window and saw the shimmer of the desert heat. The temp outside was 120F. Now, if you can handle that and the isolation of living in the middle of nowhere, go for it. If you can handle the other gangster shit, mexican illegals, etc. crime then go right down there. You can pay cash for a place, they're $100K. No thanks, I'm going to walk to the beach in a little bit. It's 70F and clear here today.

29. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    29   12:09pm Sat 23 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   clambo says No thanks, I'm going to walk to the beach in a little bit. It's 70F and clear here today. yet, time and time again, we have seen native Californians, and our business, leave for Nevada, Arizona and Texas.... have to ask why ? its amazing how many natives have moved out.. but moved out they did.

30. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    30   11:06pm Sat 23 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Because Nevada, Arizona, and Texas are much cheaper deserts than California.

31. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    31   12:36am Sun 24 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   thomas is right. Many are leaving. They are going where the taxes and houses are a better deal. Also they are going to places where they can buy a house. The houses in Phoenix cost 20% what they cost in Sunnyvale, etc. I just couldn't handle Phoenix no matter what but maybe it's a fun place, I don't know. I know no one who has been there to report back to me.

32. New Renter Follow Befriend (3) 13 threads 2,186 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    32   2:43am Sun 24 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   clambo says thomas is right. Many are leaving. They are going where the taxes and houses are a better deal. Also they are going to places where they can buy a house. The houses in Phoenix cost 20% what they cost in Sunnyvale, etc. I just couldn't handle Phoenix no matter what but maybe it's a fun place, I don't know. I know no one who has been there to report back to me. I've been here a few times, mostly in the summer and ay, caramba no- It's not my kind of place. That heat is something else if you're not used to it Kudos for those hearty souls that can put up with the scorpions and heat though.

33. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    33   7:00am Sun 24 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   New renter says Kudos for those hearty souls that can put up with the scorpions and heat though. Hey, don't be knocking on the scorpions, they had a couple of good songs..... Oh wait, wrong ones....

34. inflection point Follow Befriend 4 threads 261 comments Fremont, CA

    34   8:18pm Sun 24 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   robertoaribas What percentage of home buying in AZ are accounted for investors?

35. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    35   9:12pm Sun 24 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says Hey, don't be knocking on the scorpions, they had a couple of good songs..... Here I am...rock you like a hurricane...

36. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    36   9:16pm Sun 24 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   wthrfrk80 says Call it Crazy says Hey, don't be knocking on the scorpions, they had a couple of good songs..... Here I am...rock you like a hurricane... I was waiting for that..... :)

37. AF fan Follow Befriend (1) 1 threads 17 comments San Francisco, CA

    37   8:19am Mon 25 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   People - robertoaribas has got to be a paid NAR shill. One of at least a few on here.

38. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    38   8:22am Mon 25 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I don't think Robert is a shill. He's talking about the local Phoenix market he's living in. That area, along with Las Vegas, parts of Florida and Atlanta crashed hard during the post-bubble, so prices may make sense.

39. clambo Follow Befriend (5) 1,070 comments Santa Cruz, CA

    39   8:41am Mon 25 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Phoenix isn't doing so badly if you lived there and had a job. House prices are low but not falling recently. Since a house in Phoenix costs just 20% of a house in Santa Cruz or Monterey, it's probably feasible to buy and rent them out. Why someone would want to do that is beyond my understanding, but everyone needs to do something I guess.

40. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 228 threads 2,746 comments

    40   8:58am Mon 25 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Goran_K says I don't think Robert is a shill. He's talking about the local Phoenix market he's living in. That area, along with Las Vegas, parts of Florida and Atlanta crashed hard during the post-bubble, so prices may make sense. I don't think he is a shill either. Phoenix took the dump earlier than most other markets and is trying to stabilize. There must be some good deals at the bottom of the barrel... What Roberto tries to do is apply the current Phoenix market to the rest of the country... that don't fly..... There are many areas of the country that are continuing with their downward trajectory and will eventually hit closer the bottom like Phoenix, they just ain't there yet!!

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