WatchI'm a little new to this site and didn't realize that Patrick was a minor celebrity. I read Patrick's profile on ABC News and the thing that caught my eye was: "In 1999, he tried to buy a house there but ended up outbid, angry and convinced the system is fixed and that real estate agents are dishonest" .. "He decided not to buy and thinks he ended up on top, even though the house has gone up nearly a half million dollars. Killelea said that even people whose homes increased in value by hundreds of thousands of dollars 'would have done better in the stock market.' "
http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1
You were spot on in 2007, but do you have any regrets about not buying in 1999?
I get it, rents were cheaper than PITI in 1999 so it was a tough choice to buy, but on the flip side if you would have taken out a 15 year mortgage you'd be a couple years short of paying it off. Or you could have refinanced a 30 year today, and I'm guessing you'd be paying substantially less in PITI than your current rent.
Just curious about your thoughts..
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zesta says
Homes that were $250K went to $500K by end of 1999. Thats what you saw at ground level!
Some homes around my block went straight up to $1M .. I bought my home in early 90s when prices were much more decent.
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dodgerfanjohn says
If you didn't have the opportunity to buy in 1999, then obviously you'd have no regret.
IMO, having a paid off home is an important part of a retirement plan. If you don't, you'd either have a lot of $$$ in the bank and a rent-controlled unit OR be willing to move to a more inexpensive location.
In your 20s renting and moving around is a probably good idea since people are trying to find a place to settle down or change careers.
When you approach your 40s/50s and you're looking to buy you should probably either looking at a cash purchase or 15 year loan max. A mortgage payment past retirement doesn't seem like a good idea.
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zesta says
That was the same argument you would have heard by realtors during the bubble.. the same buyers today, have huge regrets.
This is why high home prices dont work.. its no wonder many jobs were shipped elsewhere when prices skyrocketed. Result was a price correction and job loss. Well they can forget their 30- or 15- year loan at that point.
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thomas.wong1986 says
Wow, even in hindsight knowing that it went up so much after 1999 you'd still consider it a bad buy because of the early 1990s prices?
In hindsight, would you also consider AAPL a bad buy at $25/share at the end of 1999 because it was only $10/share a year earlier?
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thomas.wong1986 says
Agreed that anybody buying during the bubble years have a huge regret.. I'm just illustrating the fact that buyers of different age ranges should have different levels of risk.
A 25 year old has the luxury of waiting to see if he can get a perfect deal
A 45 year old needs to take retirement into consideration and therefore if the rent/buy ratio is closer should be more likely to pull the trigger.
I'm NOT saying buy when you're 40 no matter what, just trying to get the perfect deal is more appropriate early in life
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I regert not being more educated back in 2001.
Tried to qualify for a mortgage through my local credit union.
They literally laughed at me. Little did I know that 1) my student loans (which were substantial back then) showed up on my credit report twice (clerical error) and 2) different banks have different programs / lending standards. I probably could had qualified for a loan to buy a small condo had I just shopped around a bit more.
Almost eleven years later and I still haven’t bought anything. (Despite a few noble attempts)
Even my wife (who I had only just met back then) would have tired harder to shoehorn into a loan back then… knowing what we know now.
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zesta says
for many in 1998-2000, it didnt matter, it was from other peoples money.. stock they cashed out at high share valuation/price. Someone else took that loss..
On many levels this was very abnormal compared to decades past.
Since 2000 things around here are not so bright .... you pay a price.
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2001 was stricter qualifications. 2003 not strict. 2005 can you move a pinky toe? Ok here's half a million. 2012 can we check your 8 year olds credit too? No? too bad no loan 4 U !
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thomas.wong1986 says
No, no, the Realtrix® shoved a fist up your ass and fucked you bloody and made your wife lick the pulpy ooze of blood and shit from her quivering fingers.
Yeah, another sale, another fucked American family, another pile of loot for a lying, life-destroying, bug-eyed psychopath!
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zesta says
Apple is a toy company! talk to me about Semiconductors, Servers, Storage, ERP software. Without the 3 S's, Ipod,pads are paper weights.
Yes, it would be a bad buy.... it was over $75 per share in 2000.
Actually fell 60-70%... so yes you would have lost your shirt.
Thursday, December 7, 2000 - Page updated at 12:00 AM
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=20001207&slug=TT2H2IAQM
Apple stock falls fast, hard
By Cesca Antonelli
Bloomberg News
Cupertino, Calif.--Apple Computer shares rose sixfold in the 2½ years after Chief Executive Steve Jobs returned to the company in September 1997, but they've given up almost all of those gains in the past nine months.
The stock reached a record $75.19 in March before tumbling as low as $14 yesterday, after Jobs said Apple wouldn't meet profit forecasts for the second consecutive quarter and would have a loss in the current quarter, its first in three years. Apple also cut its 2001 sales outlook. By contrast, the shares closed at a split-adjusted $10.75 the day before Jobs was named interim CEO.
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thomas.wong1986 says
How they forget so easy! Does anyone else recall this or have you been brainwashed ?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=08&b=7&c=1999&d=05&e=28&f=2012&g=m&z=66&y=132
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AF, I liked you're old picture better.
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wthrfrk80 says
I like his new name! subtle change, there's a new duck mania around here. duckhead is funny, but if he is the same "prices are cratering" monologue guy, then it's not cool.
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wthrfrk80 says
This is temporary - just for fun, riffing on the ducky madness of late on Patnet.
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thomas.wong1986 says
How can you be so negative about a home purchase in 1999 and at the same time be positive about your home purchase in the early 90s?
According to your NorCal graph..
In 1987 SF prices were at about 150
In 1991 SF prices were at about 250
In 1995 SF prices were at about 230
By your logic you made a bad financial choice by buying in the early 1990s. Isn't it accurate to say that a person who bought a home in 1987, 1991, 1995, or 1999 and has held it to 2012 probably a good financial decision?
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zesta says
See the article i posted earlier... how about this.. I sell you my Yahoo or Ariba stock (2000 shares) for say $250/ share. I pocket $2.5M and buy myself a home at what ever price the seller wanted because its your money.. and you lose your shirt as you watch your stock value fall to $10 per share.. thats what happened in SFBA in 1999. Bernie Madoff would be proud of me.
illustrate anytime
http://www.paloaltoonline.com/news_features/real_estate/fall2000/2000_09_22.lowmarkt.php
Publication Date: Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2000 & Friday, Sept. 22, 2000
Breaking into the market
Yes, Virginia, it is possible to buy a first home in this area--if you're willing to make compromises
by Jocelyn Dong
So you're looking to buy your first home in Silicon Valley. How do you get into the market?
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zesta says
At anyone point before 1998 have you ever seen prices double or triple in a few short years. What did we learn after 1989 that we forgot in 1998 .. hey RE prices do fall and do fall hard when disconnected from fundamentals.
Over the long run! home prices only appreciate at the rate of inflation.
If you want an investment, go buy stocks and bonds. Speculation go to Vegas...
Per Shiller, 1/3 of people surveyed in LA believed 50% appreciation year over year.
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All of those stats are completely meaningless w/o adjusting for inflation.
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thomas.wong1986 says
I ask this sincerely, are we having a mathematical discussion or an ideological one?
Hindsight and math tells me that buying in the 90s and holding until now was a wise decision.
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zesta says
You had to be here to understand the fundamentals in buying a house in SFBA didnt exist. It was all "free money" from other peoples savings.
Look... you give me $2M in cash I a will give you shares of Yahoo with a "current" value of $300 per share. If that stock dropped to $10 per share, which it did.. well too bad!
Do the math!
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zesta says
1992 was very different from 1999. Your question was regarding 1999, and was a bad idea... 1992 buying was based on more sober and realistic matrix based on incomes, vs 1999 which was based on free money.. The free money era wasnt sustainable! so what ever prices was cooked up wouldnt last.
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They can build more houses and apartments. The govt can issue ever more and more bonds and interest rates can be so low that the return is actually a negative yield. So, the supply of these "assets" can increase forever.
The shares of AAPL are not going to be increased, they will be decreased shortly. Apple will buy back $10 billion worth of AAPL shares.
Other stocks are a similar story.
If you want to capture inflation, buy a house. If you want to appreciate capital and beat inflation, buy stocks.
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clambo says
Just not in RIM...
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thomas.wong1986 says
clambo says
My math tells me that the price increase due to "free money from the internet bubble" has been sustainable for the last 13 years and counting. Perhaps there are factors other than "free money from the internet bubble" that affect housing prices.
I generally agree with the comment about housing following inflation and stocks appreciating capital.
But... since 1999 by how much has the DJIA beat inflation?
since 1999 by how much have SF home prices beat inflation?
Now in 2012, if you had the opportunity of using hindsight in 1999, which was the better financial decision?
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zesta says
1997 was the last year it made sense before doubling by late 1999.
No, it didnt make sense in 1999.
It was fairly clear by first half of 2000 what was forecasted for the next 5 years in the local economy would not happen. as such if you lived here back then.. it was very similar to late 89s and therefore ripe for a correction.
zesta says
As history has shown, home prices cannot beat inflation, since incomes increases are also tied to inflation by many industries. That was the whole point with Shillers study. Your factoring in bubble prices as some rational event, which it wasnt.
zesta says
factor in the irrational buying, and hype mania many from the East coast, what is there left.. what could you say about the local SF economy which has been around for over 50 years now, booming tech industry, limited land, high demand, etc etc
so how is that different from the 70s,80s, early 90s.
If you were going to see an over the top expansion of prices, it certainly made more sense having it in the 80s vs late 90s/00s.
so why didnt it happen ? we certainly didnt have the hype then compared to the hype we started to see in post 1999.
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Historically what's the longest duration of a speculative bubble?
Can a speculative bubble last 15 years?
and...
why can't I get you to answer this direct question:?
Now in 2012, if you had the opportunity of using hindsight in 1999, which was the better financial decision?
A. Buying a house in SF
B. Investing in DJIA
C. Putting it in the bank
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D. Gold
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zesta says
These have been my concerns as well. It seems that these "rules of thumb" are too often taken as gospel and people assume they will rigidly apply, uniformly to all areas in the US.
And its not just people looking in overperformers like SF that get hurt by this. My understanding is even at the height of the bubble, some rules of thumb said it was OK to buy in detroit. Yet, even with those assurances, detroit prices still went down about 50%
Its like that old saying, if you flip a coin 20 times and each comes up heads, what are the odds that the next flip is tails:
(a) 50/50
or
(b) you are playing with a 2 headed coin and you dont realize it.
If after 13 years of flipping that coin patrick is coming up tails every time, perhaps its time to re-inspect it...
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wthrfrk80 says
I had a feeling someone would pick secret option D.
Let's see... Gold is about 575% higher now.. You're 100k would be 575k. Pretty good.
Back to my paper napkin math:
If one would have bought a 500k house in SF with 20% down @ 7% in 1999 with a 15 year mortgage, one would now have almost 400k in principal + 100k downpayment + 450k appreciation (thomas' graph above shows about price almost doubling in SF from 99-2011) - 250k interest - 75k prop taxes -100k maint/ins = 525k
Additionally, one can add rent they would have spent in that 13 years. ($1500/mo *12 * 13) = 234k
The best part of it is that in two more years you'll be able to live in it while only paying prop taxes, maint and ins.
What will your 22 lbs of gold provide for you other than an expensive paperweight?
Furthermore, for all the moaning about the 6% commission a realtor takes (and I agree it's excessive) compare that to the capital-gains tax you'd pay on your gold. Now THAT's a lot of $$$.
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zesta says
I wouldn't trade 22lbs of gold for any of the middle class houses in SF. As the wood ages and the floors slope, my 22lbs of solid wealth would keep separating me from the house poor folks. Don't knock gold, it is the only thing that has done anything positive in the last decade.
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zesta says
There is a big difference! The 6% is on purchase price (no profit). The capital-gains tax is on profit (no purchase price)! Huge difference. Bigger than the 800 sqft million dollar homes in SF for crying out loud.
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Well in this particular case...
1m * 6% = 60k
475k * 28% = 133k
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zesta says
unless someone gave you several hundred thousand dollars to over $1M FREE, you were not in the housing market in 1999.
this was not a market for joe 6 pack or anyone else... thats the whole point of the article i posted above from early 2000 published in local Palo Alto papers.
there was not much of a choice you had! all you had after 2001 was some crazy loan! and a hope we would from 2000 to 2010 see another tech boom .. and crazy valuations with new IPOs.
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thomas.wong1986 says
I'll admit I read your article, but I thought you were arguing that home prices after '97 were fueled with help from internet bubble. Why couldn't someone have saved $100k or so by 1999 even without investing in stocks? or maybe sold a house in the midwest for 100k profit in 1997 and used that money to buy a house in SF in 1999? Is that impossible? Maybe I still don't get what you mean.
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zesta says
Extremes... everyone was investing in tech stocks.. and on the other side cashing out free money. By 1997 homes barely broke even from their prior 1989 peak. So there wasnt much profits one could have used to move up or else.
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thomas.wong1986 says
A buyer saving 100k by saving over a number of years is an extreme? or moving in from another state is an extreme too? maybe joe 6-pack decided to cash out a few stocks so he could buy a house?
According to the article, at least 1 person was in the market to buy in Berkeley 1999. It doesn't reference what price range he was, but I think it's reasonable to assume he probably had 20% down. If he had around 100k down, he probably could have bought one of these properties..
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Berkeley/593-The-Alameda-94707/home/1871605
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Berkeley/1370-Ada-St-94702/home/1609593
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RentingForHalfTheCost says
Plus you don't have to pay property taxes on gold. Or heat or cool it. You do need to "insure" it though, with a vault. Or by paying some guy to guard it.
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zesta says
Sure, but the 1m was my own. Someone took 60K of my hard earned money. The 475K was profit from my investment. I should pay taxes on it, just like any income. The 1m was already after tax money.
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zesta says
Zesta, no, this is not extreme. I and other people I know bought houses in the late 90s based on savings for the down payment.
For all of Mr. Wong's statements that buying a house anytime after 1995 is a bad idea, he still owns his house around here. Personally I think that's a fine decision, but I also don't predict prices dropping to 1995 levels. So either he doesn't really think that prices will revert to 1995 levels, or he likes his house so much that he's willing to take the multi-hundred-K loss when this happens. Sometimes people own houses even if it's not the cheapest possible way to get shelter.
Regarding the rules of thumb - in the early 90s I rented a place in SJ where the metrics said RENT. In hindsight, I would have been better off buying it for sure, but I wasn't in a position to buy then. Now, it's true that the same kind of appreciation that we saw in the last 20 years is unlikely to happen in the next 20 years, but the point is that metrics are not always right.
The metrics say that buying in Los Altos/Palo Alto/Los Gatos is not as good as buying in EPA/East SJ/Oakland/Stockton. But, those who can afford it may choose to buy in Los Gatos/etc even if the metrics say otherwise.
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SiO2 says
No I said after 1997, not 1995.
And yes, if prices from 1989 corrected down to 1980 plus inflation, whats there to prevent peak prices from correcting down to 1997 plus inflation. Robert Shiller has proven with data that over the long run even LA (glamor capitol of the world) can correct downwards, whats changed ? Oh where are you going to point to some data point or economic fact to as sustainable long term trend that supports prices
from NOT correcting further.
For me, and my home...Its all about what one values the most.. my house or my career? Our industries is what counts the most. The speculative prices, disconnected from fundamentals, which in the long run are not sustainable has never led to any positive outcome.
Wanna live in place like mine in Los Gatos... slap the fucking shit off the face of realtors and their lies.
Do your own research, read Robert Shillers book, research what prices were before the bubble, discount all the crap BS you hear, negotiate and take no prisoners. Fact is buyers have more ammo now than even back in early 90s. We even have the actual blow up of housing bubble as even greater justification to counter to all the BS we heard. Yep, buyers have a lot of ammo!
What can realtors say! No such thing as bubble.. the same jackasses who said a few years ago... no correction to 2004, 2002, and now 1997 prices.... Good Luck!
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