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Appraisers resist pressure to reflate the housing bubble

By golfplan18   Follow   Thu, 28 Jun 2012, 6:42am   3,285 views   40 comments
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http://ochousingnews.com/news/appraisers-resist-pressure-to-reflate-the-housing-bubble

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1. golfplan18 Follow Befriend (2) 516 threads 114 comments Irvine, CA

   1   6:43am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   2   6:51am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Yes appraisals are keeping the brakes on right now but we all know that price fixing never works. It just creates artificial scarcity and drives up prices more in the long run.

3. Oil Can Follow Befriend 21 threads 125 comments Oil Can's website

   3   6:56am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   I'm glad the appraisers are now more independent. If you want to purchase something higher than market value, use your own money.

4. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 246 threads 4,673 comments

   4   7:07am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   I totally agree with the title. It's so obvious it's funny how transparent it is. The industry is like a mischievous toddler hiding behind the curtain giggling believing they are invisible to everyone. Except the NAR lost its Baby cute a long long long time ago. So it's more like a middle aged alcoholic suffering from bipolar depression and multiple personalities. One week Zillow and Trulia said my neighborhood was valued on average $145K the next it was $228K, just like that in one short week. Though county appraisers are sticking by their $119K estimates. It's funny to look at the Zestimate then go to the county and see the real appraisal. I can't imagine any house selling with bank financing with the discrepancy of the numbers like this.

5. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   5   7:10am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   An RE appraiser has no more ability to determine the "true value" than a seller's agent or my pet cat. Only the market can do that.

6. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

   6   8:02am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Yes appraisals are keeping the brakes on right now but we all know that price fixing never works. It just creates artificial scarcity and drives up prices more in the long run. I am afraid the price fixing is done by the banks now, not, so much, the appraisers. Keeping inventory artificially low is akin to price fixing. This will cause the shadow inventory to bloat, and drive prices lower in the long run. Also, the FED price-fixing the interest rates, by creating an artificial demand for Treasuries, will cause interest rates to explode, in the future.

7. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   7   8:18am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Yes appraisals are keeping the brakes on right now Keeping the brakes on what?

8. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   8   8:25am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Goran_K says Keeping the brakes on what? Price appreciation. The housing market would be up substantially more if appraisers weren't holding down prices.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   9   8:38am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Crashing Housing says Houses depreciate. You're finding that out the hard way. Yeah, I hate all this extra money. Boo hoo!

10. StoutFiles Follow Befriend (1) 24 threads 557 comments

    10   8:40am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, but people are so stupid they will believe what a website tells them a house is worth based on some stupid Zillow formula.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    11   8:42am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Crashing Housing says The other day you said "I don't have two dimes to rub together". Nice work being unable to identify the trolls from the genuine iwog. LOL I'm doing great. I wouldn't take back a single house purchase if I had a time machine.

12. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    12   8:51am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Price appreciation. The housing market would be up substantially more if appraisers weren't holding down prices. Appraisers are "holding down prices"? So if I offer on a house on the MLS that is listed for $1.5 million, and there are multiple offers, i.e - a bidding war, and I decide to pay $2 million cash, an appraiser is going to stop me from doing so?

13. bubblesitter Follow Befriend (5) 10 threads 2,329 comments

    13   9:16am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says I'm doing great. Hey,no offense but that's what most people who bought in 2006 thought,and the people who bought in early 1990's in Japan.

14. TMAC54 Follow Befriend (9) 70 threads 930 comments San Leandro, CA

    14   10:21am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says if appraisers weren't holding down prices. I am curios as to an appraiser's motivation for keeping the prices down. On the other hand, Lenders have just caused a GLOBAL financial crisis by lending too much money. The same people who were foreclosed on, are bitchin cause the banks won't give them more money ! THOUSANDS of banks failed for their lack of prudence. Will they loosen the purse strings this week ? http://portalseven.com/banks/Failed_Banks_Map_Since_2008.jsp

15. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    15   10:58am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says Price appreciation. The housing market would be up substantially more if appraisers weren't holding down prices. Just laughable! so you are encouraging fraud and extortion committed by realtors. http://www.appraiserspetition.com/

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    16   11:01am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   bubblesitter says Hey,no offense but that's what most people who bought in 2006 thought,and the people who bought in early 1990's in Japan. That sounds trite and all, but no one who bought in 2006 ever thought they were doing great. Same with Japan. They were crossing their fingers and praying the bubble continued to inflate. My principle paydown over the last three years is higher than my equity loss, and that's not including tax benefits or my net profit after expenses. Denial is fine, but I'll stick to reality.

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    17   11:01am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   thomas.wong1986 says Just laughable! so you are encouraging fraud and extortion committed by realtors. http://www.appraiserspetition.com/ Bullshit, I did nothing of the sort. Quote me where I "encouraged" anything.

18. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    18   11:07am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog, I have $2 million in cash and want to outbid people for a $1.2 million dollar home by paying $2 million. Will an appraiser stop me from doing so?

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    19   11:09am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   Goran_K says iwog, I have $2 million in cash and want to outbid people for a $1.2 million dollar home by paying $2 million. Will an appraiser stop me from doing so? Nope. You're talking about a transaction that is a tiny fraction of a fraction of the real estate market. What's your point? Appraisals are acting as a barrier to mortgage money right now. It has a significant effect.

20. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 351 comments

    20   11:31am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   StoutFiles says A house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, but people are so stupid they will believe what a website tells them a house is worth based on some stupid Zillow formula. You talk like Zillow's "formula" is some kind of magic.. It's just basic mathematics. I trust zillow over whatever your magical formula is.

21. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    21   11:54am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Nope. You're talking about a transaction that is a tiny fraction of a fraction of the real estate market. What's your point? based on what the apprasors state in my link.. its more widespread.. they even left their name and ip address ...of course realtors dispute such notions.... http://www.appraiserspetition.com/ and which side are you on IWOG ?

22. thomas.wong1986 Follow Befriend 16 threads 4,426 comments

    22   11:56am Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   even Zillow has a disclaimer that its estimate may be inaccurate and should not be relied upon.

23. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    23   12:11pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)   Protected   thomas.wong1986 says and which side are you on IWOG ? You should know by now I don't take sides. I make observations and predictions. Do I care that appraisers are dragging their heels? Nope. It doesn't have any long term effect on the market so it doesn't affect me at all. If I was planning on buying one more house I might like it because it would put me at an advantage, but I think I'm standing pat for now.

24. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    24   1:07pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Appraisals are acting as a barrier to mortgage money right now. It has a significant effect. Isn't that inherently part of their job? Otherwise what's the point of an appraisal?

25. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,769 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    25   1:31pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says iwog says Appraisals are acting as a barrier to mortgage money right now. It has a significant effect. Isn't that inherently part of their job? Otherwise what's the point of an appraisal? No, appraisers jobs are to protect the bank. To make sure that the collateral, i.e. the house is worth the amount the bank is loaning on it. The problem is, in a swiftly changing market either up or down, an appraisal is basically worthless. Sales a month or two ago, were based on market conditions 3 or 4 months ago, in Phoenix, that was an entirely different market...

26. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    26   1:40pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (1)   Protected   Goran_K says Isn't that inherently part of their job? Otherwise what's the point of an appraisal? Robert has it right. Appraisers are only to prevent fraud and cover the bank's ass. A 3rd party cannot assign a value to a non-commodity like a house. The ONLY legitimate value is what someone will pay for it.

27. APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich Follow Befriend (28) 169 threads 4,157 comments Premium

    27   1:42pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   Assholes, don't they understand housing is always potentially worth 10x what it's being paid for? The Realtor® will tell them anything they need to know, like a brain cancer patient relies on his brain surgeon and oncologist.

28. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,769 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    28   3:14pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Crashing Housing says robertoaribas says an appraisal is basically worthless. So are you. then don't loan any money using me as collateral! see, you don't even need an appraisal!

29. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,769 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    29   3:56pm Thu 28 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Crashing Housing says then don't loan any money using me as collateral! see, you don't even need an appraisal! And a liar. crashingIQ: I am here to help with your stupidity! When you append a clause to a statement, you need to keep the structure grammatically correct. So, you should have used: "Then don't loan any money using me as collateral! See, you don't even need an appraisal!" And, you are a liar. notice the difference?

30. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    30   12:01am Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says The housing market would be up substantially more if appraisers weren't holding down prices. You mean to say that the house prices would be falling substantially faster if banks did not keep the inventory artificially low, and the FED didn't keep interest rates artificially low.

31. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    31   8:58am Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says No, appraisers jobs are to protect the bank. To make sure that the collateral, i.e. the house is worth the amount the bank is loaning on it. iwog says Robert has it right. Appraisers are only to prevent fraud and cover the bank's ass. Exactly my point. Who gives out "mortgage" money? It's certainly not a unicorn. Additionally, why would appraisers be so conservative with "bank" money if housing is on such a tear like you two claim? Isn't that against the logic of a bank who wants to make money by lending it out to qualified applicants? Maybe the banks know something that you two don't?

32. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    32   9:25am Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Protected   Goran_K says xactly my point. Who gives out "mortgage" money? It's certainly not a unicorn. It's not the banks either. Banks carry very little mortgage debt. The overwhelming majority of mortgage money is either insured or bought outright by Ginnie, Freddie, and Fannie. Banks risk absolutely nothing by writing as many conforming mortgages as possible. Goran_K says Maybe the banks know something that you two don't? If you're not convinced of the blindness and stupidity of banks by now, I'm not sure what would clue you in. The odds of banks knowing something I don't know about the future of the real estate markets is effectively zero.

33. zzyzzx Follow Befriend (9) 412 threads 4,116 comments Baltimore, MD

    33   9:34am Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says An RE appraiser has no more ability to determine the "true value" than a seller's agent or my pet cat. Obligatory:

34. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,769 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    34   10:14am Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   banks know what they are doing? Like the banks that approved my short sale purchases of 3/2 condos for $30K, that INSTANTLY rented for $500 net profit a month, and are now worth $60K plus? If they know what they are doing, why did the loan the prior owner $150K on it in 2006?

35. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    35   4:07pm Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Banks risk absolutely nothing by writing as many conforming mortgages as possible. Where does the risk fall?

36. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 273 threads 12,479 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    36   7:55pm Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says Where does the risk fall? Technically on those agencies but by now everyone knows the risk ultimately falls on the government and therefore the people. Bush bailed out Chinese investment in pseudo-government mortgage bonds to the tune of $500 billion although it was lost in a sea of other bailouts.

37. Dan8267 Follow Befriend (16) 761 threads 7,681 comments Boca Raton, FL Premium

    37   8:28pm Fri 29 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   That cat reminds me of someone...

38. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    38   10:27am Sat 30 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Technically on those agencies but by now everyone knows the risk ultimately falls on the government and therefore the people. Hmm. Seems to me the appraisers are saving the "people" from undue risk.

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,769 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    39   11:45am Sat 30 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says Hmm. Seems to me the appraisers are saving the "people" from undue risk. appraisers don't care about "the people," they work for the bank. In a declining market, they will overvalue your purchase based on recent sales from a couple months back, in an increasing market, they will undervalue it... That's all there is, but go back to normal nonsense on this thread.

40. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,517 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    40   12:33pm Sat 30 Jun 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   robertoaribas says appraisers don't care about "the people," they work for the bank. I never said appraisers "care" for the people. Where did I say that? Based on iwog's claim that there is "risk" involved with lending out mortgage money, I asked him where the risk falls. He said "ultimately the people." So by process, appraisers are mitigating risk for the general public because of how debt is sold, and packaged (per iwog's definition), which I don't see a problem with. If a side effect of that is that prices can't rise geometrically like in 2005, then that's icing on the proverbial cake.