Patrick.net

Another Housing Bottom This Year (Maybe)

By David9   Follow   Fri, 29 Jun 2012, 12:53pm   12,222 views   181 comments
In Tarzana CA 91356   Watch (0)   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/business/economy/new-indications-housing-recovery-is-under-way.html?_r=1&hpw

Okay, this is my first posted Real Estate Discussion, please feel free to tear apart at will. I expect nothing less.

Articles like this irritate me, so I thought I would take quotes from the article and write my housing bear thoughts, which the article did evoke.

1.) "Joe {Last Name}, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price."
-- I just don't buy these stories and every time there is an opportunity to search for the sales record I can't find it.

2.) "Millions of people remain underwater" & "Millions of families still face forclosure"
-- So how in the hell is there a housing recovery and / or bottom?

3.) "Our sense is that the market is recovering"
-- Well, isn't that reassuring. Data? A thread of evidence?

4.) "The trend is clear in the data. The widely respected S.&P./Case-Shiller index reported earlier this week that sales prices for existing homes rose in April for the first time this year." & "Indeed, in a growing number of areas demand for homes is outstripping supply."
-- Yes, that is true. There is no inventory. Why? Please refer to # 2

5.) "This is the fourth consecutive year that the housing market has shown signs of revival, and each previous episode ended with prices renewing their downward slide."
-- And this year is different because?

6.) "Government efforts to help homeowners have intensified, allowing more borrowers to refinance or avoid foreclosure."
-- Yes.

7.) "The influx of investors is a major reason that the market is looking stronger"
-- Really? Ok, in what way? True, Wall Street is a cash cow for a few.

8.) "And the rise in prices is happening despite the vast number of vacant houses awaiting buyers, up to two million more than the normal level, with several million more houses still at risk of being foreclosed."
-- Again, this indicates a recovery?

9.) "There are still reasons for caution."
-- Agreed.

« First     « Previous     Viewing Comments 142-181 of 181     Last »     See most liked comments

1. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,781 comments

   142   11:54am Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   CaptainShuddup says But make no mistake there wont be a ticker tape parade, the blue angles fly over, a presidential address, or a televised special announcing the bottom. Crap!!! I was really waiting for that, damn..... you had to burst my bubble....

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   143   11:56am Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says Continue on your point iwog, I feel like we're finally getting an answer out of you. Don't be shy, be assertive and confident of your position. That's very disingenuous of you considering you haven't answered my question yet. Has there been growth since 2009 or not? If not, explain why GDP numbers are so wrong. And BTW I know exactly how the GDP is calculated so avoiding the question by throwing out another "you don't know what's in there" is just more diversion.

3. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   144   12:03pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Has there been growth since 2009 or not? iwog, I answered your question here: Goran_K says When it comes down to it, and I have tried the past few years (as part of my job), it's impossible to find anything more than negligible real sustained economic growth in the U.S economy. I also posted numerous graphs of national unemployment, underemployment, U.S private debt levels, foreign investment growth since 1993, and wage growth from the past 25 years. I think my point has been made pretty clear. Now are you going to answer why you think there is sustainable growth/recovery underway, or are you going to meander and side track the discussion? I really want to see you connect growth in silicon valley, manufacturing jobs in Detroit, and Airbus building a plant into a concise, complete argument as to why the economy is experiencing sustained growth/recovery.

4. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   145   12:10pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says iwog, I answered your question here: That's not an answer to my question at all. That's a subjective assessment with no supporting facts. Your graphs were fascinating in that they all show improving conditions since 2009. Was that the point you were trying to make? That unemployment was falling despite a sharp drop in international investment and a deleveraging of consumer credit? If your point was something other than that, I guess you'll have to explain in more detail because your point is lost in your own data. Goran_K says Now are you going to answer why you think there is a "recovery" underway, or are you going to meander and side track the discussion? I've posted two direct answers to your question and I've asked you a question of my own. Again you're disingenuous as hell if you think this is meandering and side tracking. What's wrong with you that you've got to be condescending while still refusing to answer me? Has there been economic growth since 2009 or not? If not, explain why the GDP is wrong.

5. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 229 threads 2,781 comments

   146   12:11pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   iwog says Has there been growth since 2009 or not? If not, explain why GDP numbers are so wrong. And BTW I know exactly how the GDP is calculated so avoiding the question by throwing out another "you don't know what's in there" is just more diversion. OK, give me an education, because I am not an economist... GDP recently has been less than 2% but TRUE inflation is running higher than that, if I understand that right. So, in the big picture, where is this so called "growth" coming from??

6. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   147   12:12pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Goran_K says I really want to see you connect growth in silicon valley, manufacturing jobs in Detroit, and Airbus building a plant into a concise, complete argument as to why the economy is experiencing sustained growth/recovery. Ahhh....so it's a SUSTAINED growth/recovery now. How interesting you popped a little straw man into the conversation. For the record I've said numerous times this recovery is going to be shallow and short. Now do I need to remind you what we're talking about again?

7. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   148   12:13pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says OK, give me an education, because I am not an economist... GDP recently has been less than 2% but TRUE inflation is running higher than that, if I understand that right. So, in the big picture, where is this so called "growth" coming from?? There is real GDP growth above and beyond inflation. Goran knows this which is why he only whined about using nominal numbers and didn't go into detail about real numbers.

8. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   149   12:17pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says For the record I've said numerous times this recovery is going to be shallow and short. Finally. We have an answer. SubOink: "I don't really know if there is a recovery, I just feel it." iwog: "If there is a recovery, it's going to be shallow and short." All we need is Roberto to chime in, and we have the trifecta of a bull argument for why housing is headed on the up and up.

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   150   12:20pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   We actually don't have an answer. You still refuse to answer my question about current growth. Why is that? The argument for a new bull market in housing is independent of economic growth. If you actually bothered to read anything I posted, you'd know this. To start, you might realize that a 5% return on rental property sucked when the 10-year bond rate was also 5%, but is pretty awesome now that the 10-year bond rate is under 2%. I'm sure you're smart enough to figure out why this would drive home values higher independent of wage growth.

10. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 249 threads 4,739 comments

    151   12:23pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (3)   There is no growth.

11. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    152   12:25pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   CaptainShuddup says There is no growth. Yet rents continue to rise. How about that!

12. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 249 threads 4,739 comments

    153   12:38pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   iwog says Yet rents continue to rise. How about that! So you're saying if I jack you up in the alley take your watch and abscond with your fancy green gas pickem up truck, I'll be contributing to the GDP? Rents continue to rise and so does the price of Gas in spite of the fact we have a stockpile of the stuff unsold people can't afford. Republican criticism of Obama's energy policies has faded as oil fell as much as 29 percent from this year's high in February and stockpiles ballooned to the most in 22 years. Americans bought less gasoline in the four weeks ended June 26 than a year earlier even as prices dropped, MasterCard Inc. data show. Last month, the Federal Reserve cut its estimate for U.S. growth, Spain became the fourth euro-region country to seek an international bailout and China's manufacturing shrank. YET! OIL rises $10.00 since just Friday.

13. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    154   12:40pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Are you complaining that it's an unfair game? That's rich coming from you considering how you piss on everything Teddy Roosevelt and FDR ever stood for. Keep voting Republican and maybe they will deregulate the water markets next.

14. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    155   12:50pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   iwog says http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_20463046/silicon-valley-ceo-see-solid-job-growth-2012 Iwog told me that he can't argue with me based on predictions and "wishful-thinking", while he brings out this article from the yellow press saying that "we are expecting growth". Expecting growth is not the same thing as having growth.

15. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 249 threads 4,739 comments

    156   12:52pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   I'm Voting for Romney so he repeals Obamatax and gives us Socialized medicine. Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Come on Iwog, stand up and demand it with me, get up, come on you know you want to, why are you still sitting? AH Fuck you're long on insurance, pharmaceuticals, bio research, hospitals, and now the eventual Fat Camps.

16. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    157   12:53pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   dunnross says Iwog told me that he can't argue with me based on predictions and "wishful-thinking", while he brings out this article from the yellow press saying that "we are expecting growth". Expecting growth is not the same thing as having growth. Silicon Valley Leads The Nation In Job Growth http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2011/12/07/silicon-valley-leads-the-nation-in-job-growth/

17. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    158   12:56pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   CaptainShuddup says I'm Voting for Romney so he repeals Obamatax and gives us Socialized medicine. Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Come on Iwog, stand up and demand it with me, get up, come on you know you want to, why are you still sitting? AH Fuck you're long on insurance, pharmaceuticals, bio research, hospitals, and now the eventual Fat Camps. The only thing you're going to get from Romney is the Ryan act. I'll get some very large tax cuts but you'll probably be screwed. Good luck with that. I'm 100% for a Canadian style single payer health program in the United States. Unless citizens wake up and stop voting Republican, it will never happen.

18. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    159   1:00pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   iwog says Silicon Valley Leads The Nation In Job Growth 3.2% hiring growth in 1 year, considering there were massive layoffs prior to that is nothing, especial if you consider that Silicon valley employment and wages are nothing like they were in the 90's when an average house price was 1/2 or less of what it is today:

19. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 249 threads 4,739 comments

    160   1:03pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   Well Iwog I'm a software developer and I can assure you my job is not in jeopardy, and while I'm making more money than ever. Tech industry, particularly SOFTWARE only. Can't sustain this or any country for ever. Think of America as Potato farmers, potato farmers that grows a ton of potatoes, and sells them for a hefty profit. But that's all we do, and not everyone in America is on the growing, picking, packing, delivery or sales of these potatoes. We're growing virtual potatoes on Farmville, so we don't even need physical pickers, we email our potatoes in a weekly report. We can only eat so many virtual potatoes before we're sick of potatoes or those that don't have a virtual pot to take a virtual piss in, up rise and unplug the router. I'm not going to go out to the fields and pick potatoes, I've got 4G.

20. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,643 comments

    161   1:06pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   dunnross says 3.2% hiring growth in 1 year, considering there were massive layoffs prior to that is nothing, especial if you consider that Silicon valley employment and wages are nothing like they were in the 90's when an average house price was 1/2 or less of what it is today: You have to be careful using when you use real vs nominal numbers. Houses can and will appreciate in nominal terms, but may not in real terms. Just as nominal wages will grow even if real wages are stagnant.

21. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    162   1:13pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Well Obama was banking on Solar Energy and Electric Cars, then he learned that you can't create new jobs and industries without a business model that is profitable. Maybe virtual energy, and virtual electric cars?

22. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 249 threads 4,739 comments

    163   1:14pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (3)   Single payer, you mean like Citizens home insurance in Florida has? Bellow are two links to Google phrases. One is pro perspective, the other is a con perspective. NOTICE the results are the same, it's a hell hole con job that is oppressive to the Florida home owner and we have no choice but to bend over and take it. In 2005 Florida wouldn't let insurance companies raise their rates just 10% from the average policy of $800. SO they threw them out and made a single payer "Citizens" insurance. That immediately jumped to an average of $2600 a year. I just got reinspected and sent a letter they will be raising my rates by $680 next year. citizens insurance problems http://www.google.com/search?q=citizens+insurance&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=iV&rls=org.mozilla:en-US%3Aofficial&sclient=psy-ab&q=citizens+insurance+problems&oq=citizens+insurance+problems&gs_l=serp.3..0i30j0i8i30l2.1965.4706.0.7787.9.9.0.0.0.0.124.828.4j5.9.0...0.0.alvYlr_0dWU&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=21c0595ad86507f8&biw=1258&bih=837 I like citizens insurance http://www.google.com/search?q=citizens+insurance&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US%3Aofficial&sclient=psy-ab&q=I+like+citizens+insurance+&oq=I+like+citizens+insurance+&gs_l=serp.3...19271.22988.2.23250.8.8.0.0.0.3.220.811.4j3j1.8.0...0.0.PMRztSjDkW4&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=21c0595ad86507f8&biw=1258&bih=837 Come on say it Iwog you're a Liberal Goddamn it... Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!! Socialized Medicine NOW!!!

23. Rew Follow Befriend 8 threads 143 comments San Jose, CA

    164   1:23pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   The US economy is growing. Projections are at around 2%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-03/imf-lowers-u-s-growth-projections-to-2-percent.html I'd describe it as wobbly, not holistic, and there are still lots of risks out there, but yes ... we have growth. I remain cautiously optimistic in outlook, but pessimistically doubtful with regards to my own economic decisions. Aside : AAPL kissing the 600 mark today. Cool!

24. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    165   1:25pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   CaptainShuddup says Liberal I know no one really 'knows' me here, but I am not a fox news type conservative and have considered my self more liberal. However, when it comes to housing I once heard Romney talk about 'orderly bankruptcy' for failed banks, as they did in the 80's with the Savings and Loan banks. Had this happenned we would not have the Japanese style 'zombie' banks pooping out one defective house at a time at a balance sheet wish list price. This has made me question where I stand in the spectrum.

25. dunnross Follow Befriend 28 threads 1,489 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    166   2:49pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   tatupu70 says You have to be careful using when you use real vs nominal numbers. Houses can and will appreciate in nominal terms, but may not in real terms. Just as nominal wages will grow even if real wages are stagnant. I am sorry, but silicon valley prices are up over 80%, at least, in both real and nominative terms since the 1990's, while both employment and wages are down. This is exactly why silicon valley prices will continue to drop both nominally and in real terms, whether we have growth in employment or not.

26. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 204 comments

    167   5:38pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says but they won't explain what exactly is driving this supposed "recovery". Because I think if they spent time actually analyzing what was driving this "recovery" they might figure out that there really isn't anything to drive home prices up at all, except for government props, and artificial market manipulation. Goran_K: The data points about wage growth and unemployment further illustrate the divide between the haves and the have-nots. Unemployement is still low for those with higher education degrees. Wage growth has been higher for the top 3 tiers. The middle/lower middle class is struggling and has been for the last decade. Currently homebuyers are investors with cash and upper quintile incomes. Private Equity is jumping into SFH like no time in history. What's driving the recovery of home prices? Prices getting closer to rental parity have set a support and people unable/unwilling to sell their homes have contributed to low supply. Let's say that home prices either stay flat or dip from now until 2020. You'll have about 15 years of buyers that will be unwilling or unable to sell. That alone will help keep price from dropping as supply decreases. Every percentage drop in home prices will keep a percentage of homes off the market. A large portion of home sales will be distressed sales, similar to the current situation now.

27. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    168   6:18pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says The only thing you're going to get from Romney is the Ryan act. I'll get some very large tax cuts but you'll probably be screwed. Good luck with that. And luck you will need if the moron ah mormon gets in.

28. Mick Russom Follow Befriend (2) 7 threads 530 comments Belmont, CA

    169   10:22pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says I just look around in real life and when I see activity, neighbors remodeling, people eating out etc etc, I get the vibe of a recovery. Bay area folks living on massive credit. Take the credit cards away, and things will be a bit more austere. Its amazing to see so many people in the red and spending like there is no tomorrow. Wage slaves and debt slaves all in one. Fascinating. And the government is trying to get people to leverage more with 0% interest rates.

29. Mick Russom Follow Befriend (2) 7 threads 530 comments Belmont, CA

    170   10:25pm Tue 3 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says No they aren't. They are more affordable than ever. PIT on a $500,000 home with 20% down is only $2500 a month and well within the reach of a typical Bay Area family. 500K is a shoe box or a violent neighborhood or bad schools. Most homes that a family of four with school aged kids in a decent school district will be 800K. And the schools are quite bad even when they are supposedly good. The cost of living here is brutal and unrelenting and the quality of life is dropping. And the FedGov wants the sheeple to leverage themselves into oblivion for some reason. Unreal, paying a premium to get a loan from banks subsidized with my tax money. Realize with leverage everywhere we all rent our futures for a quick fix today. Sad to see. What will the kids do? People dont even think about it. They just think "ill get mine"

30. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    171   11:09am Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   zesta says What's driving the recovery of home prices? Prices getting closer to rental parity have set a support and people unable/unwilling to sell their homes have contributed to low supply. I agree with this. Home prices in certain markets are getting close to parity with record low rates, and I also see some homeowners "stuck" because they are underwater. The question then becomes, how long will they hold onto their overpriced home that has zero change of appreciating back to the bubble price they paid within the next 10 to 15 years? Also, let's not forget, banks are taking TWICE as long to foreclose as they did in 2008-2009. So many of those homeowners may have already thrown in the towel, and are living rent free at the banks expense.

31. duckhead Follow Befriend 3 threads 81 comments

    172   12:08pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   suboinK: “I get the vibe of a recovery” BOOMCHUCKALUCKA that’s the spirit go with the viiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiibe man!!! Credit where credit is due Mick, to the OINKER not Goran. Goran is too fixated on facts and stuff when what you really need is the “vibe” baby! OINKAOINKA and Mick you’ve seen the vibe in action: “Its amazing to see so many people in the red and spending like there is no tomorrow.” Yes these people are living for today, that’s the way to do it DUCKHEAD STYLE BOOMBA.

32. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    173   1:00pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   I love that song. Didn't grow up in that era, but I agree with many of the values.

33. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,572 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    174   1:40pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Mick Russom says 500K is a shoe box or a violent neighborhood or bad schools. Most homes that a family of four with school aged kids in a decent school district will be 800K. Total nonsense. Concord has a crime rate much lower than the California average, decent schools, and many homes in the $300,000 price range. Pleasant Hill does as well. I've purchased a condo in Walnut Creek for $150,000. Walnut Creek is turning into Beverly Hills North. Fremont is a typical middle class city with many homes around $400,000. SFR homes in REAL crime filled lower class neighborhoods like Richmond, Pittsburg, and Antioch were available in bulk for under $100k last year.

34. inflection point Follow Befriend 4 threads 266 comments Fremont, CA

    175   5:10pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   In my part of Fremont they are much higher than $400K.

35. SubOink Follow Befriend (3) 9 threads 704 comments Los Angeles, CA

    176   6:09pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   duckhead says Goran is too fixated on facts and stuff when what you really need is the “vibe” baby! Facts and Stuff? LOL

36. bmwman91 Follow Befriend (7) 37 threads 1,539 comments Mountain View, CA bmwman91's website Premium

    177   7:17pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Only time will tell. In much of the Bay Area, it looks like things may be on the rise again, despite the fact that it is an affront to many people's sensibilities. But, it is what it is for now. Will it be like this a year from now? Nobody knows, and anyone that claims to know for certain is a charlatan or fool. Just from observing things, many people looking for their first home are panicking and trying desperately to buy. Investors and wannabe investors are all aboard the bandwagon. The herd is on the move. My general feeling is that it is totally unsustainable as history repeatedly demonstrates. The thing is though that the herd can keep the momentum up for a very long time, as in the better part of one's lifetime. Don't hold your breath for house prices in the SFBA to hit a low level where you can both buy a house and have disposable income for living your life with. It's one or the other at present, and likely into the foreseeable future. I used to really want a house for all sorts of common reasons. Once I ACCEPTED that buying would be nothing more than a heavy list of compromises, I decided to forget about it and focus on living life day to day. Sure, it is hard and even heart-wrenching to let-go of an ideal that you have sought and invested a lot of yourself into pursuing. Recognizing when to cut your losses is an important skill though. Life becomes vastly more enjoyable when you stop pining away for something totally beyond your control.

37. David9 Follow Befriend (3) 28 threads 747 comments Tarzana, CA

    178   10:21pm Wed 4 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Trulia says many markets are 'In the clear' regarding a housing recovery today. http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/03/12537085-some-us-metros-in-the-clear-of-housing-crisis?lite These are same people who send me an email with the Real Estate advice: "don’t even bother trying to align your buy or sell with market peaks and troughs. It’s a better practice to time your transaction in accordance with your life," http://www.trulia.com/blog/taranelson/2012/06/timing_the_market_5_signs_it_s_the_right_time_to_buy_or_sell?ecampaign=cnews201206D&eurl=www.trulia.com%2Fblog%2Ftaranelson%2F2012%2F06%2Ftiming_the_market_5_signs_it_s_the_right_time_to_buy_or_sell

38. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 204 comments

    179   11:59am Thu 5 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says zesta says What's driving the recovery of home prices? Prices getting closer to rental parity have set a support and people unable/unwilling to sell their homes have contributed to low supply. The question then becomes, how long will they hold onto their overpriced home that has zero change of appreciating back to the bubble price they paid within the next 10 to 15 years? I think the answer for most of them is as long as they're at or below rental parity they'll stay whether it be 10, 15 or 30 years. Less people will trade-up. Does it matter if you're underwater if you're paying less than a comparable rental? .. If they're close rental parity and they HAVE to move, I'd think many people will opt to become landlords rather than foreclose or bring money to the table. It might not be the ideal scenario and an additional headache, but it could make financial sense. For all your musings about stagnant wages, you didn't respond to my assertion that the top quartiles of Americans are doing very well, while the bottom quartiles are stagnant and facing high levels unemployment. If you just look at median income numbers and regular unemployment figures you might deduce that housing prices need to follow that trend. However, homeowners these days are going to be in the top quartile and aren't necessarily facing the same hardships of those in the lower tiers. Perhaps we're looking at a trend of lower homeownership rates and a separation of income/housing ratios. Wealth is increasing as a whole in the United States but is sharply diverging away from the middle class. Home ownership could do that as well, don't you think that's a possibility?

39. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 25 threads 1,520 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    180   12:16pm Thu 5 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   zesta says I'd think many people will opt to become landlords rather than foreclose or bring money to the table. It might not be the ideal scenario and an additional headache, but it could make financial sense. That's a huge assumption, and one I'm not inclined to agree with. As for your point of the "top quartile" of Americans doing well, I didn't respond to it because the amount of households that make $150,000+ is about 5% according to IRS data. Is that what you feel is normal? 5% of the nation being perfectly okay with stagnant wages? I'm not sure what your point was to be honest. zesta says Perhaps we're looking at a trend of lower homeownership rates and a separation of income/housing ratios. Wealth is increasing as a whole in the United States but is sharply diverging away from the middle class. Home ownership could do that as well, don't you think that's a possibility? What your describing is wealth disparity, and yes I do think that is happening, to the detriment of the majority of the people in the country. So if your point is that home ownership will become a rich man's game in the future and the U.S may become a failed nation, then yes, that's a possibility.

40. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 204 comments

    181   4:07pm Thu 5 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says As for your point of the "top quartile" of Americans doing well, I didn't respond to it because the amount of households that make $150,000+ is about 5% according to IRS data. Is that what you feel is normal? 5% of the nation being perfectly okay with stagnant wages? I'm not sure what your point was to be honest. The top 20% of Americans have not had stagnant wages. Those 20% are the ones that are buying homes, especially in metro coastal areas. Furthermore, it's that 20% that are investing either as small investors or in pools of money that are buying up multiple homes. We're trending towards more homes being held by fewer people.

« First     « Previous comments