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Permalink Like (3) Dislike (1) Although it didn't crash as quickly as I expected, the chart is pure bubble crash at this point.
1. well defined parabolic peak
2. well defined bull trap
3. lower highs, lower lows
4. bear market trend that isn't anywhere close to capitulation
I wouldn't touch the stuff under any circumstances unless it drops near $10 an ounce.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
"silver beats all other investments" yeah, except when it doesn't!!!!
Hey underwear man began buying in the past two years... how has it done these past two years?
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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underwaterman says
I've been doing Real Estate transactions for over thirty years.
My system used to be buy at the beginning of the decade, and sell at the end of the decade. I would do market timing, and talked about it for years.
You stalked me, but you don't like it when others call your bluff.
I compared guns, to gold, how did that work out?, Hey I never even thought about silver since the Hunt's brother fiasco. How did my guns do against silver?
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David Losh's website
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Ruger stock, as an example: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RGR
You can zoom the chart to "all" to get the over all idea.
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Clarendon Hills, IL
Hey guys how about a reset ?
I'm much smarter, wealthier and better looking than anyone here. Ok then ...moving along
Whens the next 20 % move in SI going to happen ?
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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underwaterman says
The point is that if you are going to use doomsday as your investment strategy most precious metal investors learned in the 1990s guns were the way to go.
You have no idea what you are talking about, and yes you stalked me on another thread, that was Real Estate related. Then you invited every one over here to read your unreasoned opinions about how everyone else is stupid.
OK, we put this thread to bed, and you went to another Real Estate thread to high jack that.
Now here we are again helping you to make more informed investment decisions.
My point is that since the 1990s most conspiracy theory investors found guns to out perform precious metals, no matter how you slice it.
You obviously didn't know that.
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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underwaterman says
You have to sell according to your market timing in order to get a return.
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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underwaterman says
You went onto Real Estate threads with your precious metal nonsense, and then invited everybody over here to read that you have no investment strategy, you are just making noise.
You've insulted every one who has pointed out you have nothing to say, yet you don't get that.
You also don't get that most conspiracy theory nut jobs that sell gold found out in the 1990s that guns are just as much of an investment, and safer, than gold it.
You can buy physical guns, or buy stock in gun companies.
You don't get that because you have no investment strategy.
You are all talk with no research, just conspiracy theories.
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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underwaterman says
I've said everything on the Real Estate threads you stalk. You're stuck, cornered, you have no data, only conspiracy theories that you can't keep straight.
By now most every one can see through you, but from time to time you get some one new.
You should move on.
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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underwaterman says
You have been responded to in detail, repeatedly on the Real Estate threads you high jacked. You didn't like that so came over here where you thought you might be safer.
You invited every one over here, and this is what you have to say: underwaterman says
When you read that blog post keep in mind that they are pumping the price of gold, it's what they sell, it's not a reputable resource.
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Monterey, CA
underwaterman says
Damn. Is that what you base your investment decisions on?
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Mountain View, CA
I'm about to withdraw a few thousand in play money sitting in equities and buy silver.
You know who's buying equities now?
JOE SIXPACK.
Know what happens when funds/ institutions stop buying equities and the retail investors take over?
It' called buying at the peak and it's precisely what happened during the first internet bubble.
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Clarendon Hills, IL
underwaterman says
I was asking Iwog..The guy/duck who started the thread.
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Madison, WI
Silver has already made it's moves, then bouncing all around looking to find a mean. My guess is we will see it moderate between $28-$36 this year, just like last year. Supposedly summertime is a good time to buy in at a bit lower prices.
Silver mining should still be ramping back up after trading for $5 for so long it was not a very profitable metal, give it a few more years, but investment demand is lively, dollars cheap, inflation?, picking up inventory slack that may present itself.
Supposedly it only costs about $10 to pull an oz. of it out of the ground.
Just IMOP is all.
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I know there are lot of gold bugs here so just want to add some value: Watch for action for both gold and silver, especially Gold.
Triple red, (moving average, RSI, MACD) and the Death Cross.
Apparently, institutions have been selling quietly while the mom and pop has been buying. Believe in the actions not the gold bugs and what you read. In other's words, there is no indecision now, it is just plain selling and has entered a known down leg.
This chart is playing out exactly like Apple in Dec 11 2012 when it was triple red and made the death cross as funds were unloading quietly. Apple promply lost another 15% on top of 20% when the trend was already clear.
Based on technical indicators, it is extremely bearish. The only question is how low in the next three months. I believe based on the depth of the prior cross, we are looking at at minimum 1540 gold and $25.50 silver.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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I think we're about to see a doomsday-disappointment selloff that will take silver to new multi-year lows. The chart is a nightmare now and all similarities between today and the 2006 and 2009 bull patterns is looooooooong gone.
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Chula Vista, CA
Has anyone on here done any research involving primary trends? All these charts are wayyyyy to short. Look at gold and silver against any assets you want to since 2000.
I'm not an investor, but is it really that hard to understand that when fiat currencies around the globe are being hyper-inflated, gold and silver are the only refuge. They're easy to barter, easy to hold, easy to store. And they've been around as money since, ohh, the dawn of the financial world.
Sound economics and stable economies = faith in government backed currencies.
Bad economics and unstable economies = faith in anything government can't easily manipulate.
Am I the only one who understands basic logic here?
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San Jose, CA
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NuttBoxer,
Those charts indicate what might happen in the near future for gold and silver. The bulls like to look at the gold chart since 2000. Do they want to look at the gold chart since 1980?
It's like looking at the housing chart since 2012 and say the housing market is going up, but if you look at the chart since 2006 and you say the housing market is going down. However, if you look at the housing chart since 1980, you'd say that the long term trend is up.
As much as I wanted to drop $200k to buy some gold to hedge my bet from the demise of the dollar, I just couldn't even convince myself to drop $20k to buy it. At this point, history is against gold.
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Mountain View, CA
E-man says
The problem with your argument is that we have never seen such rampant increase of the world's money supply. There's no way for the FED to increase rates at this point, we would be unable to pay off even the interest on our debt; the cat's out of the bag. We truly are in uncharted waters, so you can't extrapolate back decades or centuries.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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Facebooksux says
1. Yes we have. The country is called Japan.
2. Inflation never showed up, in fact they have been fighting deflation for nearly two decades.
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Mountain View, CA
iwog says
Yeah, I guess you're right about inflation buddy, cause Ben says it's not a problem. Obviously you never buy anything besides iPads.
It's not like manufacturers try to screw over consumers by adding filler to everyday products. You know, like FUCKING HORSEMEAT in BEEF LASAGNA.
Let's even assume that it's laughably "low" at 2% or whatever Inkjet Ben says it's at. Tell me what the effect is after 5-10 years? Looks like grandma's gonna need a roommate.
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Bellingham, WA
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iwog says
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Bellingham, WA
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Facebooksux says
No wage inflation, no inflation.
You will understand this, eventually.
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Mountain View, CA
Bellingham Bill says
Wage inflation is but one aspect of overall inflation.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
silver is looking worse and worse... many that underwater dude who sold homes to buy silver did a double mistime in 2012!
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robertoaribas says
I disagree.
I was just looking at one of my Mercury dimes this evening. It is beautiful, crisply struck and shiny. Besides it's numismatic value, which is subjective and variable, the silver content can still buy a beer or a couple of candy bars just as it could in 1942. I suspect my dime will still be able to buy a beer in 2042.
I doubt a hundred ounces of silver will ever buy a house but I will be ready if it does.
What happened to underwaterman?
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I am almost out of silver now, although I used to have a lot of the ETF SIVR.
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Bellingham, WA
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Facebooksux says
No wage inflation, no inflation -- just reallocation.
The 1970s inflation event was thanks to the baby boom hitting their 20s and 30s en masse, plus the mideast tensions and associated oil supply shocks didn't help.
Inflation continued in the 1980s as the baby boom borrowed tons of money.
Inflation returned in the 2000s as the baby boom and a few Casey Serins re-borrowed tons of money and spent it all, a fake form of wage inflation.
But if money no longer rains on the middle class, middle class prices simply cannot go up.
Something's going to have to give here.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP/
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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iwog says
Looks like today is the day.
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iwog says
Silver goes up. Silver goes down. As long as I can buy my candy bars or beer with my silver dime I am holding for the long haul, and buying on the down dips.
Silver is still shiny beneath the tarnish.
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Lafayette, CA
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The Professor says
The long haul is going to be ten years or longer. I think a better plan would be to put money into the stock market and go all in 5 years from now.
People who control billions of dollars sell into the back side of asset bubbles. Fundamentals are nearly irrelevant however what I can say for sure is that it is cheaper than $30 per ounce to mine silver.
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iwog says
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1209081-the-true-silver-mining-cost-what-does-it-really-cost-to-mine-silver
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Vaticanus says
Silver is a hedge and a hobby, less than 10% of our investments. I have enjoyed collecting coins my whole life. I bought silver at $4, $10, and recently at $30. I dollar cost average into pre 1965 American coins from my favorite pawn shop on a regular basis. I got a bunch of mint state 1963 Franklins and 1964 Kennedys last month
I could buy 2 candy bars for a dime when I was a kid. I still can.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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Vaticanus says
1. The numbers used in the article are incorrect. PAAS continues to make record profits and mine record amounts of silver.
2. The cost to mine one ounce of silver is around $12.
3. Even if you don't believe that number, why would you buy and hold a non-productive commodity that every silver mining company in the world is desperately trying to mine as much as possible at these prices?
http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/5682921-pan-american-silver-s-2012-annual-revenue-soars-on-record-silver-and-gold-production
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I agree Iwog. But buying then selling, then buying again at the right time is what the powers that be and other big wigs like George Soros do.
But some people just like to hoard stuff. To each his own. Becoming a property manager/owner and renting for a steady income stream is perhaps much more desirable. But not everyone can make these large investments. The little guy might buy silver to have an investment that doesn't give banksters and other powers the be First access to their own hard earned lettuce.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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Vaticanus says
An investor like George Soros can rape the silver market and drive prices to $5 an ounce simply by selling contracts for silver that doesn't exist anywhere in the world.
Before 2004 I wasn't a serious investor. Since then because of my experience with the oil market, the real estate bubble, and stocks, I've learned one important lesson: Fundamentals NEVER MATTER in the short term. By short term I mean any period of time shorter than three years.
I watched oil go from $80 a barrel to $147 a barrel to $35 a barrel in a period of 24 months...........a period of time far too short for new production to come online or oil consumption patterns to change significantly.
I've talked about bubbles fairly extensively however I now believe the massive worldwide wealth disparity has defined each stage:
1. Run up: Smart rich people act in unison to corner a market. It generally helps if driven by fear. (inflation, peak oil)
2. Peak: Dumb rich people and the general public finally take notice because record high prices are hitting the news media and mass marketing companies start to prey on taxi drivers and waitresses. (Invest in silver now!!!)
3. Crash: Smart rich people exit leaving large positions in the hands of fad investors. Buyers are gone.
We're on the far side of the bubble. Massive fed printing occurred in 2008 and 2009 along with QE1 and QE 2 afterwards. Anyone fearing inflation has had years to get into the market. The people left are those who are not impressed or who don't have the money to play. Meanwhile world silver production climbs every year.
This is a horrible market to go long in. I love metals. I've been telling anyone who would listen to buy buy buy since 2008. I also called the peak almost perfectly in 2011. If I saw ANY reason to start putting gold and silver back in the bank, I would seize it. Right now I simply can't.
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San Jose, CA
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"I also called the peak almost perfectly in 2011."
Yes, you did. I'm your witness. Congrats on making the right call. At the end of the day, you'd be alright when you make more right bets than wrong bets.
Say 2011 is the top for the precious metals. I'd say that 2021 might be the time to go all in on PMs. I'll double check on it, but I'm fairly certain that'd be the bottom of the PM market, give or take 2 years.
See you at the top of the housing market buddy.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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E-man says
Oh I really hope so. This market is becoming violent and I have no idea how to pick a top. I think Canada is the best model for the next bubble but who knows.
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Scottsdale, AZ
robertoaribas's website
iwog says
use the post i wrote a long while back.. when to sell in a bubble... This time around, I'm not going to jump the gun out of fear, I'm not shooting till I see the whites of their eyes!
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1216058
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Seattle, WA
David Losh's website
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iwog says
I'm going to share this story about silver just because it was my first experience with it.
My first home sale was to a couple related to my girl freind. The guy told me he had the cash for a hefty down payment, so I put him with a lender. The lender called me to tell me the guy had no verifiable funds, so I asked.
I go to the guys apartment, and in the closet he has boxes, and boxes of silver coins. Well, that wasn't going to work, so I drove him to all the places he could sell his collection. We went to half a dozen places, and each told him they would pay a per cent of what he thought the coins were worth.
He finally sold, complained, but got the house he still lives in today.
It just depends on how well you sell, as well as when you sell. Had he liquidated before, or after, or when the market was hot, he could have done better.
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Nampa, ID
robertoaribas says
I think this is a very good, simple and powerful statement and is the way to trade any market. I'm a currency trader actively trading 30 diff. pairs and my buy and sell is determined by price proving itself. When buying any market the 1st question is "what can I afford to lose", not "do I feel lucky" and then drawing lines in the sand of the logical price points found and determined then pulling the trigger.
Gold could drop to 1425+/- very quickly and for me that would not be out of sync in the overall picture and to be honest I absolutely expect it. Silver is a mixed bag, so at present I'm looking at 23-20's for longer term support.
Gold and silver I will trade (physical) independently based on price and there's no other way to do it better, talking about price and not instrument used to do so. I'm not day trading either metals so where price is at present I'm not looking to do anything unless I see the white in there eyes as it were and price changes that opinion.
Although I do enjoy everyone's opinion from the so called pro's to the novice I do heavily filter the information being shared (background music) and just stay with the plan based on the foundation of "what can I afford to lose".