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Revisiting Silver


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 2 Jul 2012, 4:12am PDT   33,239 views   268 comments
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Although it didn't crash as quickly as I expected, the chart is pure bubble crash at this point.

1. well defined parabolic peak
2. well defined bull trap
3. lower highs, lower lows
4. bear market trend that isn't anywhere close to capitulation

I wouldn't touch the stuff under any circumstances unless it drops near $10 an ounce.

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dunnross   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 3:48am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 69

iwog says

Excellent job pretending to have a point but not actually saying anything. If I didn't read your comments, please clarify where my misunderstanding is.

What I said was this money is not being multiplied, like before the crash, because banks are not lending it.

iwog says

Ahhhh......so your precious high powered money turns into crap when it is put back on deposit at the fed because banks have no one to lend to. Brilliant.

The FED is buying worthless MBS's with this money. The FED's balance sheet includes these at face value, but, actually, they are worth pennies on the dollar.

iwog says

I suppose that's why I have 51 friends and you have 6 aliases.

When you accuse someone of something, you better have some proof of it. But, for you, of course, it's almost every comment you make that doesn't have any proof or substance behind it.

B.A.C.A.H.   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 4:16am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 70

Jeez dunross, does it really matter? getalife.

dunnross   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 5:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 71

B.A.C.A.H. says

Jeez dunross, does it really matter? getalife.

Tell that to iwog and 51 of his Virtual friends (Virtual with a BIG V).

B.A.C.A.H.   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 8:07am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 72

You guys don't need some survivalist's web site or whackos in flyover states to rationalize using gold and silver as money. American eagles are $50 gold pieces and silver dollars. There's several dominations of pre-1965 US silver coinage that are money, and even up to 1970 issue on the half dollars. Canadian Maple leafs are $5 Canadian money.

dunnross   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 9:27am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 73

underwaterman says

Dunross, it is hard to have a conversation with personal attacks like these. They don't add to the discussion, they incite and derail the conversation about silver.

I don't respond to your comments because I don't want to be a target like you've made Iwog who I noticed hasn't responded with a personal attack back. You have some good comments and ones that need clarification but it is hard to hear or even read them with these kinds of attacks.

I am sorry. I am just tired of both iwog and roberto running the show, around here, insulting everyone right and left, and there is nobody who can stand up for themselves. The type of incessant bragging that they are both doing, and defamatory remarks which they make, dwarfs any kind of insulting words which may come from me. Roberto has crowned himself as king of knowledge, but, actually, he is just a wannabe professor realtor. Iwog doesn't know the difference between High Powered Money and Bank Reserves, but they try to pontificate here, like they are Maynard Keynes and Milton Freedman.

iwog   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 3:04pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 74

dunnross says

The type of incessant bragging that they are both doing, and defamatory remarks which they make, dwarfs any kind of insulting words which may come from me.

dunnross says

Unlike some of iwog's and other people's predictions, my predictions have been right on the money every time. I have the record to prove it, as I showed you the link to the post which I posted back in 2006 when I told everyone that I sold my house and bought gold with the proceeds at $450/oz.

Note: Gold never came anywhere near $450 an ounce in 2006 and dunross hasn't show anyone any links.

iwog   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 3:12pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 75

underwaterman says

Silver is still in a long term uptrend based on this chart.

Source: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/11/21_The_Roadmap_For_%243%2C000%2B_Gold%2C_%24100%2B_Silver_%26_1%2C650_HUI.html

The chart doesn't look bad unless you take into account how long the bull market has run. Markets are driven by the way people perceive the media, how long their memory extends back, and what percentage of people are long.

The gold and silver sellers have saturated radio and TV for several years now. It would take an extraordinary number of people all going long to move the markets higher than $50 an ounce and the longer they wait, the more excess supply is going to be available.

Silver might yet make new highs, but I don't think so. I can't imagine anyone has been sitting on the sidelines this long just waiting to jump in.

Furthermore the media is going to be buzzing next year how another hard asset, real estate, is not only an inflation hedge but earns an income as well.

dunnross   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 4:03pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 76

iwog says

Note: Gold never came anywhere near $450 an ounce in 2006 and dunross hasn't show anyone any links.

I did explain before that I started buying gold even before I sold my house, back in 2005. I also showed you all my links back from 2006, when I was using goldenboy as the only other alias which I had on patrick. Now those links are gone, but, perhaps, patrick can dig them out in his archives. Basically, I told everyone to sell their house and buy gold with it.

iwog   Thu, 22 Nov 2012, 4:39pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 77

dunnross says

I did explain before that I started buying gold even before I sold my house, back in 2005. I also showed you all my links back from 2006, when I was using goldenboy as the only other alias which I had on patrick. Now those links are gone, but, perhaps, patrick can dig them out in his archives. Basically, I told everyone to sell their house and buy gold with it.

I don't believe anything you say here.

I believe that someone who has preached repeatedly that the 2013 market for housing will reach nominal 1975 levels is so completely out of touch with reality that there's no way you could even sign a home purchase contract let alone formulate an investment plan for gold and silver back in 2005.

It would be like me predicting silver at $1.25 an ounce by the end of next year. This is not an exaggeration.

StillLooking   Sat, 24 Nov 2012, 3:18am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 78

iWog,

Silver is going higher exactly because real estate is a horrible investment. If the government was actively trying to suppress the price of real estate and increase the price of silver, then real estate would be a good buy.

Do you understand this key concept?

iwog   Sat, 24 Nov 2012, 7:59am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 79

StillLooking says

iWog,

Silver is going higher exactly because real estate is a horrible investment. If the government was actively trying to suppress the price of real estate and increase the price of silver, then real estate would be a good buy.

Do you understand this key concept?

No. I think it's absurd.

The government is not trying to suppress the price of silver in fact I doubt the government employs a single person that even cares what the silver market does.

The government is definitely trying to increase the price of real estate however the premise that actions which drive one hard asset up in value would drive the other hard asset in the opposite direction is ridiculous. Both silver and real estate are considered inflation hedges.

StillLooking   Sat, 24 Nov 2012, 1:43pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 80

If the government is actively working to raise the price of real estate in relation to other asset classes, then real estate must be overpriced.

The government is raising the price of real estate above its true intrinsic value.

everything   Sat, 24 Nov 2012, 10:42pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 81

Market manipulation should be a known. From 2001-2009 dow 8 thousand something to 13 thousand something. Then, a run for the exits! Time to start over. 2009-2012 dow 8 thousand something to 13 thousand something. We did in 3 what it took us ten.

Regarding your comment on miners spending billions and billions ramping up mining projects, well, with most metal prices doubled in less than ten years, some in only a few years like this would you not pour as much as you could into expanding your mining operations? I know I would!, and especially while interest rates were cheap!!!

Regarding silver manipulation, question is, are they manipulating it up or down at any given investment cycle, and how long do these cycles last.

dunnross   Sat, 24 Nov 2012, 10:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 82

underwaterman says

The banks are offloading this junk to the taxpayer again at full false valuations allowing the banks to theoretically make more loans and increase lending.

Why isn't this illegal? Why isn't there a massive outrage or legal actions? Why are we allowing these banksters to get away with murder?

woppa   Sun, 25 Nov 2012, 1:00am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 83

Dunnross the answer is simple. The large majority of the population is completely ignorant, only a very small percentage have a very good understanding of all the crap that goes on. Americans are much too busy demonizibg unions for all our problems, arguing about health care, taxes, war, gay rights, and abortion, the things we can actually see in front of our faces and at least pretend to understand. It's ignorance, plain and simple. God bless America!

dunnross   Sun, 25 Nov 2012, 7:49am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 84

underwaterman says

they are not helping homeowners.

Why should they help irresponsible homeowners/housedebtors? They shouldn't help anyone, because, they shouldn't have gotten this money from the taxpayer in the first place. All these banks should be bankrupt, and let new ones arise from their ashes. Banks which pay people to save money, not to speculate.

dunnross   Sun, 25 Nov 2012, 11:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 85

underwaterman says

The homeowner while not entirely devoid of responsibility is at the bottom rung of the whole mess.

I am sorry, but the bottom of the rung is not the housedebtor. The bottom of the rung is the renter who watched this fake bubble inflate, but was prudent enough not to jump in, and worked his a*ss off trying to save up for the day when his patience pays off, and the market returns to sane valuations. But now, instead of receiving the reward for his prudence he is being told that he has to wait some more, because of irresponsible homedebtors and greedy banksters who need to get their reward, first, for screwing up.

dunnross   Sun, 25 Nov 2012, 11:12am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 86

underwaterman says

take away all equity from peoples homes where the average joe stores his wealth and savings

When people like you finally realize that there was no equity taken away, because, there was no equity, there to begin with? Yes, that would be the true bottom of the market...

dunnross   Sun, 25 Nov 2012, 2:05pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 87

underwaterman says

All the savers really get screwed because they get no bailout.

From the 4 Kondratieff seasons, savers only get one, when they finally come out on top of everyone else. This is the winter season, and this one is theirs.

uomo_senza_nome   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 7:26pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 88

underwaterman,

Ted Butler is a dubious source. And so is Harvey Organ,

See this:

http://www.financialsensearchive.com/editorials/townsend/2010/0419.html

I also suggest reading the comments section of this podcast:

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/harvey-organ-get-physical-gold-silver/73933

lisalisa   Tue, 27 Nov 2012, 11:17pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 89

Crash JP Morgan buy silver..

&playnext=1&list=PLD0A12B0EC0D8BA4C&feature=results_video

uomo_senza_nome   Wed, 28 Nov 2012, 11:02am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 90

underwaterman says

Contrast the above flawed article against the work of GATA for example and you will see the quality difference in the work of GATA.

James Turk is a credible source?

WTF, he doesn't know what he's talking about. King World News is another gold/silver pimp site.

To really understand the divergence between physical and paper, you need to dig a little deeper.

Such as this article:

http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/central-bank-gold-leasing/

uomo_senza_nome   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 12:10am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 91

underwaterman says

James Turk the founder of Goldmoney, author of one of the best
books on gold and gold history, and gold banker for Dubai for 20 years?

So what?

Attacking the source instead of the content I posted is called ad hominem. Of course you can choose to ignore me or the facts.

Cheers

woppa   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 2:31am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 92

Guns and ammo will be more valuable then silver and gold in a currency breakdown. Pile guns and ammo.

iwog   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 3:58am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 93

underwaterman says

So Iwog, when the discussion started 6 months ago, silver was sitting at 27.10 the week of July 6th, 2012. It is now sitting at 34.10, a 26% gain 5 months later as of today from the time you wrote off silver as over in a classic bull trap.

What do you think is causing the price of silver to gain 26% since July given the supply is 4.6% increase this year? It certainly seems to be going opposite your prediction.

I was using platinum in modeling the silver bubble. Used for predicting the crash from $44 to $26, it was absolutely stunningly perfect, almost to the day.

Unfortunately for my prediction, the silver chart diverged from platinum which was probably caused by 2 things:

- Silver being widely held with a much larger market and relentless marketing.
- Silver ETFs.

Here's the 1980 bubble. I would suggest shaving the top $!5 off the top because it was due entirely to the Hunts attempting to corner the market. It shows several secondary peaks however each one successively lower.

I don't discount another charge at $50, however falling well short of $50 will convince a lot of the die hards that the jig is up.

woppa   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 6:08am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 94

I've actually given this a great deal of thought. Perhaps it's for another thread, but lots of land , a vegetable garden, some animals, solar panels, wind turbines, batteries to harness the energy, a couple wells, a house that can by heated by wood, all things on my list. It all means nothing if you don't have the guns and ammo, the skill and the will to use it if you must. You'd just be setting up a nice life for the next person who does have that skill and will.

NuttBoxer   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 7:04am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 95

iwog says

I was using platinum in modeling the silver bubble. Used for predicting the crash from $44 to $26, it was absolutely stunningly perfect, almost to the day.

Unfortunately for my prediction, the silver chart diverged from platinum which was probably caused by 2 things:

- Silver being widely held with a much larger market and relentless marketing.
- Silver ETFs.

Here's the 1980 bubble. I would suggest shaving the top $!5 off the top because it was due entirely to the Hunts attempting to corner the market. It shows several secondary peaks however each one successively lower.

I don't discount another charge at $50, however falling well short of $50 will convince a lot of the die hards that the jig is up.

The 1980's bubble hinged on two brothers attempting to corner the market, we have nothing of the sort going on here.

Your chart at the beginning is at least 5 years too short. Silver has been the primary trend for the past 12 years, and will continue for another 3-8(my money's on 8). You need to think longer term investment.

As long as our central bank continues to inflate, gold and silver will continue to rise.

iwog   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 9:27am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 96

I'm open to the possibility that silver has one more run up before the final crash, but there's no question in my mind that I'd rather have the bulk of my money in real estate right now.

Not only do I see 100% appreciation over the next decade, but 70% leverage and dividends to boot.

I still think that once people get back to work and hyperinflation simply doesn't show up, people are going to bail out of metals. You can only hold a non-performing asset for so long.

It was all great while silver and gold made double digit gains every year, but things have flattened out now.

Bellingham Bill   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 10:05am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 97

to break real estate the middle class has to be broken.

a la the 1930s.

The System is biased against letting this happen, unless the blame can be put onto The Other Guys. . .

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CUUR0000SEHA

woppa   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 10:36am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 98

Americans are little bitches, we could be at 50% unemployment and we'll all sit there with our tails between our legs. If you really believe so surely in hyperinflation the only reasonably intelligent course is to start a homestead at least 4 or 5 hours away from any major city, learn to grow food and raise animals, and learn to shoot guns and horde munitions. Hopefully you would have other various skills required to stay self sufficient (maintaining you're electric car). Only then would I begin buying gold and silver. That's just me.

woppa   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 10:49am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 99

If we experience deflation and then hyperinflation, to the point where a loaf of bread costs a million dollars, then I really have to believe people would be killing each other to survive. I am not a genius on this subject, I have only done enough research to have a very basic understanding of what the theories and scenarios are that some people believe will come true. I also read a blog called fofoa, although I admit a lot of what he writes is well over my head. He believes that silver will be virtually worthless and only gold can be currency. I am not sure why, I have to re-read.

Bellingham Bill   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 10:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 100

underwaterman says

I read recently that once the debt to GDP reaches 60% and we are sitting at 100%, the country always defaults because the interest payments can't be paid

interest paid to ourselves does not leave our economy.

Debt owned by foreigners is at 35% currently.

Bellingham Bill   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 12:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 101

underwaterman says

hyperinflation will not happen if we owe only 65% to ourselves

Hyperinflation happens when spenders -- the "middle class" -- have more money than there are necessities available on the market to be purchased, and the price of necessities just soaks up all the extra money, and the monetary authorities just keep adding money to keep the insanity going . . .

Our economy has a massive surplus of "necessities" -- well, food at least.

Fuel is arguable here but at least the natural gas supply glut is saving our bacon to some extent:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=dhb

shows that natgas is at 1995 levels in real terms.

(rising gasoline costs are just making us economize more on gasoline usage, and there are still much more savings here to be had, though rising diesel costs will push up producer costs on everything, but the embedded fuel cost in products is not that significant, really)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FGTCMDODNS

is federal government debt, at it does look scary.

But adjusted by the interest rate, we get:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=dhc

and that shows how our debt service costs aren't any higher than 1990!

Interest being paid to domestic debt holders is just basically giving them a tax break, dig?

B.A.C.A.H.   Thu, 29 Nov 2012, 1:33pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 102

underwaterman says

Some say gold will be used for international settlement and silver for domestic.

That's how it was for thirty years, 1934 - 1964.

iwog   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 4:14am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 103

You realize that "very close" to an all time (2008) high means 0% inflation over 4 years right?

Commodities are very volatile but rarely affect the end product price by more than a few cents. That is because in our economy, the cost of the food in a cereal box is actually a very minor component.

You can see this the most in Coke and other soft drinks. Do you really think sugar water costs a buck? ; )

yup1   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 4:52am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 104

Metal commodities are in a bubble.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=metals-price-index&months=360

yup1   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 4:52am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 105

Silver is actually worse

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=silver&months=360

yup1   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 5:09am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 106

underwaterman says

Yup, how do these links prove metals or silver is in a "bubble"?

I am sorry they don't "prove" anything. But your chart does not "prove " anything either.

yup1   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 5:23am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 107

Silver peaked in April 2011 and has been falling ever since. The chart for silver from April 2011 until now is terrible if you are bullish. Lower highs and lower lows. The chart I linked, a 30 year chart, shows the characterists of a bubble. You can be in denial if you want to.

Silver and gold as money. As soon as I start to see it being easily carried, easily exchanged for goods and services, and not easily counterfeited, it will be money. None of those things are going to happen in the near future. There is not enough of it to go back to coining it. It is completely unrealistic to believe that we are going to go from a fiat currency/credit based system to one backed by precious or in the case of silver semi precious metals.

If we tried to go back to a gold and silver backed monetary system asset prices would plummet, because they are all based on the amount of credit money available in the system.

yup1   Sat, 1 Dec 2012, 5:31am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 108

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=silver&months=120

A 10 year chart for silver 631% return, that my friend is a bubble.

Notice the distinct down trend from April 2011, that my friend is a bubble bursting.

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