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Revisiting Silver


By iwog   Follow   Mon, 2 Jul 2012, 4:12am PDT   31,419 views   268 comments
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Although it didn't crash as quickly as I expected, the chart is pure bubble crash at this point.

1. well defined parabolic peak
2. well defined bull trap
3. lower highs, lower lows
4. bear market trend that isn't anywhere close to capitulation

I wouldn't touch the stuff under any circumstances unless it drops near $10 an ounce.

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Peter P   Sat, 15 Dec 2012, 12:51pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 149

underwaterman says

I suggest you read my post above on the weak hands. The market will
eat you alive if you try to beat HFT and algorithmic trading and corrupt brokerages.

You do not need to beat HFT and algorithms. They just create a whole different market micro-structure.

For example, HFT does not affect a 5 min bar series the same way it affects a tick series. You need to be careful with physical stops. The game has changed, but human traders can co-exist with robots.

Peter P   Sat, 15 Dec 2012, 12:59pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 150

underwaterman says

There is no accurate price discovery in a manipulated market from my perspective and in a market where a firm pays
the brokerage to look at your stops and orders and put in orders before yours, it isn't an even playing field anymore.

Depending on your time frame stops may or may not hurt you. Lower time-frame trading has become very difficult.

underwaterman says

That is why people are withdrawing money from the market and volume is low now.

Not sure if that is the reason. The stock market is not very volatile, which makes a horrible trading environment.

Peter P   Sat, 15 Dec 2012, 1:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 151

underwaterman says

How would a thief even know you have a safe and something worth stealing?

You better hide the safe and hide it well.

The Professor   Tue, 25 Dec 2012, 8:37am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 152

So why has silver dropped this month?

uomo_senza_nome   Tue, 25 Dec 2012, 9:57pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 153

The Professor says

So why has silver dropped this month?

Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver LOL ROTFL LMAO

bgamall4   Sun, 30 Dec 2012, 3:30am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 154

underwaterman says

Simple answer: Manipulation, pure and simple. What sane investor sells massive amounts of gold for a major loss in the middle of the night when there is no volume? They only do this to push the price down on purpose. They pulled the same trick last year in December. The metals went right back to their fundamental prices in January after the manipulation raid is over. I think they want to push the price down of the metals for the end of year comparisons.

You know, this is how they bid up housing, but in reverse. They actually pay cash and pay thousands over the comp to bid housing up. They are evil and should be stopped.

Peter P   Sun, 30 Dec 2012, 3:33am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 155

Gold is international. Just watch GC/YG/ZG at night and you will see that there is a lot of trading going on.

Facebooksux   Thu, 17 Jan 2013, 12:30pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 156

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/us-mint-out-silver-coins-suspends-sales

Gee, the Mint ran out of Silver Eagles.

I guess the economy is GREAT and there's nothing wrong with my BernankBux!!!

tr6   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 8:29am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 157

robertoaribas says

The silver market is billions of dollars of trades; One person, hell even one government can't "manipulate it" to make it go down. Since you are very stupid, you don't respond to the substance, and attack me.

When the oil market went to almost 150 in 2008, there was one player that had a 12% position. I would say that one player can manipulate almost any commodity market. Oil is a much bigger market than silver.

tr6   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 9:07am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 158

robertoaribas says

every single time oil goes up, that same claim comes out; every single time absolutely 100% of economists refute it; Oil goes up for many reasons, supply, demand, fear premium based on middle east politics, but the same person cornering a bunch of it, would later have to sell it, creating a glut... so the net result, would be huge risk for potentially negative payoff.

You are full of it. I was in the market at the time and it had nothing to do with supply and demand. Who are these 100% of economists that refute it? You are starting to sound like a person who does not do his homework and blabs about every topic.

Bigsby   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 4:02pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 159

underwaterman says

robertoaribas says

Please, post more investment advice, so I can do the opposite and make money!

Yes, my sole purpose in life is to serve miss roberta and post for your amusement and insane attacks and incessant ranting about your investment.

And your incessant ranting on gold and silver in virtually every thread you've posted on? Presumably that doesn't count.

Bigsby   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 5:22pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 160

underwaterman says

You'll have to excuse those of us with a more private, sane, and intelligent approach.

What would that be then? Buying RE in 2005 and 2006 and selling in 2012? Or perhaps lapping up the predictions of gold bulls, some of whom seemed to have gold reaching $10,000+ by 2011. How have those 'private, sane and intelligent' approaches been working for you?

Bigsby   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 7:45pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 161

underwaterman says

underwaterman says

This is a thread about silver and it's big daddy gold. I'm a little tired of you hijacking every thread to make it about your neurosis and narcissism.

Bigsby says

And your incessant ranting on gold and silver in virtually every thread you've posted on? Presumably that doesn't count.

Out goes miss roberta, in comes the mental midget tag team to fill in hijacking the thread. Where are all of your minime midget buddies? I bet they will be here soon adding more nonsense and attacks to the thread because miss roberta can't defend herself.

You do like your repetitive themes, don't you? You accuse people of hijacking threads whilst you simultaneously post the same gold related drivel in every single thread you go to. You accuse Roberto of stalking you whilst you appear to post at least five overly long and over-wrought posts to every one of his short, generally insulting posts. You complain about people insulting you whilst invariably insulting people in your own posts. And on and on you go.

Bigsby   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 7:48pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 162

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

underwaterman says

You'll have to excuse those of us with a more private, sane, and intelligent approach.

What would that be then? Buying RE in 2005 and 2006 and selling in 2012? Or perhaps lapping up the predictions of gold bulls, some of whom seemed to have gold reaching $10,000+ by 2011. How have those 'private, sane and intelligent' approaches been working for you?

That approach would be to start ignoring obvious midget brains and start lapping up more good information from people who know something about gold and silver and basic economics rather than wasting time mentally wrestling with clowns like you.

Knock yourself out. I'm sure you'll have fun following those who predicted gold to be $10,000 in 2011. Clearly they know what they're talking about.

Bigsby   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 7:50pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 163

underwaterman says

Yes, I see you adopted the strawman argument of your master as well midget minime. Yes, all my posts in every other thread than this one just talks about gold and silver. Your master miss roberta and your clown circus attacks my arguments via my investments and then proceed to attack me for answering your questions about said investments. Every post in the thread before miss roberta appears waving his big dick 14 house investment was on topic by me without any mention of gold and silver including the last threads.

It's not a strawman argument you plum. You've posted the same stuff about gold in completely different and utterly unrelated threads. I was pointing out your hypocrisy. You whine about things that you yourself do all the bloody time.

Bigsby   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 7:59pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 164

underwaterman says

Care to ever present a real argument on a topic appropriate to the thread or is it you just feel compelled to constantly attack the person without adding anything to the discussion?

There's no point where you and your comments are concerned. You don't want a discussion, you simply want to make your points and insult those who disagree. You have already posted over-and-over again about the enormous woodie you have for gold. I don't share your excitement and wouldn't bore everyone with repeated 500+ word posts about what I believed the future of gold was once I'd made my point. You, in contrast, appear to like the sound of your own typing and seem very pleased with yourself simply repeating the same points constantly whatever the thread is about.
Why not just give it a rest and post about something else for a change? And whilst you're at it, why not have a break from your Roberto fixation for a while? You're coming across as more than a little unhinged.

tatupu70   Sun, 20 Jan 2013, 8:23pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 165

underwater--

For the record, its not an Ad Hominem attack if Roberto uses your previous history of poor investing decisions to conclude that your current investment ideas are probably not worth following. That's just logic 101.

An Ad Hominem attack would be if he said that because you don't know the difference between the word lose and loose, therefore all your investing decisions are poor.

Do you see the difference?

everything   Mon, 21 Jan 2013, 2:01pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 166

The last two years have been excellent times to invest in silver. Last year we went from about $27 to about $37, back down to $27 then up to about $35, LOTS of opportunity to buy and sell, much more than most RE deals. Heck, since the RE market crashed silver has been the best investment of almost anything.

In 2008 silver went from $10 up to almost $50 in 2010!, know of any RE deals go up 5 times in value between 2008 and 2010?, didn't think so!

Roberto!, with your cash flow, learn to buy into these dips, RE is not the only game in town.

Gold is an entirely different game, that's for the big players now, we got world government banks literally printing money and using that to buy gold. That's big demand!

When world governments are buying gold people are paying some attention.

pdh   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 3:45am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 167

robertoaribas says

My posts, which are on her for the past number of years, show how I've analyzed the market, and how successful my return for such has been.

And what an attention-whore you are.

Bigsby   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 9:19am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 168

underwaterman says

I actively avoid this idiot as I've stated many times and is why I spend most of my time in threads like these so I don't have to listen to the crap he and his merry band of mental midgets put out.

Don't be stupid. You quite obviously don't actively avoid him. On the contrary, you go out of your way to post multiple responses to each and every one of his posts at you. On what planet does that amount to actively avoiding someone?

Bigsby   Tue, 22 Jan 2013, 9:44am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 169

underwaterman says

I don't talk about gold and silver except when asked about it. I have only talked about it in 2 threads ever, this one and the last thread. I only talked about it last thread after my 30 comments on housing bubble and you clowns started attacking my investment and asking about it.

Well, that's bullshit for a start. You posted about it in all of the last three threads you've been spending your time on. Only one of those was related:

Revisiting Silver
Why is for sale inventory so low?
12 Cities Where You Can Buy a Foreclosed Home for Half Price

Can't be bothered to look further than that, but I'd hazard a guess those three threads right there constitute a good portion of your total comments.

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 4:14am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 170

underwaterman says

You idiots expect me to crawl into a whole and let accusations and lies fly so I answer attacks with demonstrations of distorted ignorant comments just as I'm answering yours for the 2nd time. I answer each distorted comment thrown at me and accuse me of not ignoring him or you. Nice catch 22 you've set up there. Stupid is as stupid does as forest gump says.

I don't expect that at all, but you shouldn't pretend that you are actively avoiding him either. Just respond to him rather than always spouting that people are stalking you or that you are avoiding them. See?

The Professor   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 4:58am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)     Comment 171

underwaterman says

You idiots expect me to crawl into a whole and let accusations and lies fly so I answer attacks with demonstrations of distorted ignorant comments just as I'm answering yours for the 2nd time.

Or ignore them. It really works.

bgamall4   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:02am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 172

robertoaribas says

Oh, but that would just prove home prices are manipulated!!!

Home prices are manipulated. Never has Wall Street sought to manipulate home prices with cash purchases that bust through the comps. Never! And it will make the market volatile, and the small investor had better be careful. Things are good now. But as we have seen over and over, the uber rich are happy to fleece the merely rich.

The Professor   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:03am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (1)     Comment 173

underwaterman says

To expand on everythings comment. Compare the percentage gains from the last bull run in gold and silver to todays bull market and you will see we have not yet reached the 3rd parabolic phase of the precious metal bull run.

I like to collect old silver dimes, quarters, and halfs, especially Franklin halfs. Currently my coins are worth about 22 times face value.

In your opinion, how high do you expect silver to go and how soon?

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:04am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 174

underwaterman says

No, I don't see. You complain when I respond to his stalking me into this thread and his statement "No way, I'm going to expose you for the fraud that you are" or something to this effect. I ended the conversation in the last thread and now you and he are following me into this thread . He follows me into this thread for no other reason but to continue his attack on me just as you are doing now. I respond to his statements but somehow it is me attacking him and me talking about gold in a gold and silver thread. I came into this thread to update the movement in silver to avoid your combined idiocy.

I'm not complaining about you responding to him - that is simply you twisting what I am saying. You complain about his insults, you claim he's stalking you, you claim you are actively ignoring him. The point is that you also insult all the time, you post more responses to him than he does to you, and you most certainly aren't ignoring him.
And my point about your gold and silver posts is that you are repeating the same points over and over again in different unrelated threads. You denied that. I showed you'd done it in the last three threads you've posted on. You sound like you are peddling something.

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:20am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 175

underwaterman says

Yes, I did deny it because it is untrue. I responded to questions asked of me by you and your clown circus. Post real examples with permalinks and I'll complete the demonstration showing how each remark is a response to a previous question. Some points are repeated over and over again because you guys don't talk about my actual arguments, but ignore or distort them so I'm left with nothing but essentially repeating a simple logical argument to point out how you've distorted it.

Anybody can go to the threads I mentioned and see what you posted. You've just admitted what I said was true and yet you are still trying to deny it in the same bloody post.

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:42am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 176

underwaterman says

The Professor says

Or ignore them. It really works.

This works with most people but these guys are pretty thickheaded. I've tried this and it doesn't seem to stop them from attacking or posting in threads. In some cases, it seems to support their distortions because they will attack and then no response comes and people assume their point is correct and you are running away in fear.

No, you haven't. If you had ignored said people, then you wouldn't be spending your time posting half page responses to them.
And what distortions are those? You weren't responding to any comment by Roberto etc... or any comment directed at you when you jumped on the opportunity to start on your gold fixation in the 'Why is for sale inventory so low' thread. So who exactly is distorting the truth?

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:50am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 177

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

The point is that you also insult all the time, you post more responses to him than he does to you

Already answered multiple times. Tit for tat. Only my tat is a little more colorful.

So don't fuckin' complain about it!

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:54am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 178

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

Bigsby says

The point is that you also insult all the time, you post more responses to him than he does to you

Already answered multiple times. Tit for tat. Only my tat is a little more colorful.

So don't fuckin' complain about it!

Your the only one complaining about it from what I can see.

Duh! You complain about people insulting you all the time whilst you do as much if not more of the insulting. I'm complaining about your hypocrisy. See the difference?

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 5:56am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 179

underwaterman says

So Bigsby, let me repeat myself since I know how much you like it:

underwaterman says

Is this going to be your only contribution to the thread: To continue attacking me with distortions because I dare to confront the distortions from miss roberta? Why don't contribute something useful or go and cry to your mommy or to someone who cares.

Er, they aren't distortions. And my contribution to this thread is to respond to what you are saying in response to me. Seems reasonable enough considering the way forums generally work.

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 6:02am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 180

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

Duh! You complain about people insulting you all the time whilst you do as much if not more of the insulting.

I tend to answer an insult or personal attack with an insult. Call me crazy. Call me sane.

And I don't have a problem with that, but you have also responded to many of my posts with insults when I've said nothing insulting to you. And again, if you insult, don't complain about others doing the same.

And I see you just had to add an additional later insult to your above post. Really rather pathetic.

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 6:09am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 181

underwaterman says

Bigsby says

And what distortions are those? You weren't responding to any comment by Roberto etc... or any comment directed at you when you jumped on the opportunity to start on your gold fixation in the 'Why is for sale inventory so low' thread. So who exactly is distorting the truth?

Same answer as before: you are distorting the truth. Post the permalink and I will demonstrate how pretty much every post is a response to an attack or a question directed at me. Stop babbling and present evidence for this meaningless and pointless topic you've created to waste everyones time with.

Why do I need to post a permalink? That would go to one post. Anyone can go and read the entire thread mentioned and see the truth of the matter.

Bigsby   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 6:10am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike     Comment 182

underwaterman says

underwaterman says

Offically pushing the ignore button on Bigsby.

Saw that 11 others are ignoring him when I selected the link.

That might be a new metric I use before commenting on anything.

If there are a lot of ignores, just don't respond to begin with.

And all 11 came in a very short period of time when I got involved in a flame war with RealtorsareLiars and his many pseudonyms.

David Losh   Wed, 23 Jan 2013, 11:35pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 183

E-man says

10) people are willing to take on more debt.

11) investors were able to buy properties with 7% cap rate, 25% cash on cash return with leverage, and 40%+ IRR excluding the built-in equity.

I'll take exception with the last two items on your list, but not much.

People may be willing to take on more debt, but can't because of two other items you mentioned, lower foreclosure rate, and lower bankruptcy rate. Foreclosure, and bankruptcy took out a high risk segment of the population.

There is a large segment of the popluation that is maxed out on credit waiting for the economy to improve, or home prices to rise enough to not have to file bankrupcy, or go into foreclosure.

That leaves the good people, the golden borrowers taking on debt because they think it's a good idea, it's not.

With the exception of housing, owning a home, the economy is doing great. There is tons of cash, and the government deficit is looking more like a bad dream we are waking up from.

The housing market can, and is, correcting better than I ever thought it could have, it's just going to be different going forward.

The Professor   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 6:22am PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 184

Underwaterman, Your analysis of the metal market is interesting. Your feud with Roberto is not. Ignore personal attacks and stay on topic.

There is truth to what E-man says:
E-man says

Sometimes you're speculating without realizing it. Remember that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I agree that the fundamentals do NOT support economical recovery but the market could stay irrational longer than we can stay alive.

Bigsby   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:00pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 185

underwaterman says

Laurie Goodman testified before congress there was 10 million homes sitting in inventory. This was back in 2010 I believe (I've posted the sources in other threads)

Your clearly misleading use of that figure was shown to you in that thread (12 Cities Where You Can Buy a Foreclosed Home for Half Price), and yet here you are still peddling exactly the same stuff you posted in that thread.

The Professor   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 2:36pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 186

underwaterman says

The Professor says

Underwaterman, Your analysis of the metal market is interesting. Your feud with Roberto is not. Ignore personal attacks and stay on topic.

So let me understand you. Roberto stalks into the thread again and again executes an ad hominem personal attack against me instead of talking about the topic and I respond to his attacks and you choose to tell ME to stay on topic because you personally are not interested in my "feud" with Roberto.

How would you like someone stalking you always personally attacking you?

Somehow I don't think you would just ignore him. I also don't think you would like me telling you what to do and what to focus on in your comments.

I'm certainly not here to focus exclusively on your interests.

Sorry, no offence intended.

I was just pointing out that I find your analysis interesting and your feuding tedious.

I think Roberto has called everyone stupid. I know he has called me stupid at least once. It is just part of his persona; he likes to push buttons.

Criticism can be constructive or destructive. If it is constructive, listen and learn. If it is destructive, carefully consider the source, and move on with your life.

The Professor   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 3:14pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 187

I have been collecting coins for over 40 years. At one time I planned on collecting every US coin minted in the 20th century. There are a couple I could never afford. I collected the state quarters but I have always preferred real, silver, coins.

I remember when silver coins still circulated. In 1965 the mint changed from intrinsically valuable 90% silver coins to base metal tokens. They still produced 40% silver half dollars for a couple more years. We pulled all the silver coins out as fast as we could. I remember when I cashed some silver coins in the late seventies I was getting 17 times face value.

underwaterman says

Dollar cost average in on gold and silver and simply wait as an investor for an extended time frame 2-10 years.

I buy 90% silver from my favorite pawn shop. I bought some when it was under $5 an ounce. I bought some more when it was under $10 an ounce. I regularly dollar cost average into 90% silver coins. The guys at the pawn shop let me pick through their purchases and I often find some really nice Franklins, Mercurys, and Washingtons.

I have a 403B, Roth, and pension plan but I still like shiny coins. The Silver American Eagles are beautiful.

I figure that a silver dime could buy a couple of candy bars or a beer back in the day, can still be cashed in for a beer today, and can probably buy me a beer when I'm old.

E-man   Thu, 24 Jan 2013, 4:36pm PST   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike     Comment 188

underwaterman says

No disrespect but there is a reason why case shiller housing is correct and is used by economists now. It takes out all the bias and compares apples to apples. I can't point out the bias exactly in your chart because I don't have their methodology but it is there.

Underwaterman,

Take a look at those two graphs again. They are C-S graphs. See what happens when you only look for information that fits your preconceived belief? It's really dangerous when you let your emotion gets in the way of investing.

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