http://www.redfin.com/CA/Concord/1820-3rd-St-94519/home/1261080
Listing price: $181,000
My cash offer: $175,000
Final sales price: $200,0000
For you Zillow groupies, Zillow has this home valued at $161,300
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1820-3rd-St-Concord-CA-94519/18345944_zpid/

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Its a weird market out there. There is hardly anything for sale around us and I'm now starting to see even the crap that I'd never want to live in go pending. Basically we started looking around March and by April the market suddenly turned but again- mostly because there's simply less inventory. The gentrified areas even worse. We just got lucky I suppose.
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dublin hillz says
I agree, the lower interest rates go the more principal you are paying each month too. A better comparison is to take the actual interest portion plus maintenance expections per month and compare that to rent. Usually the monthly taxes are are cancelled out by MI deduction the first 10 years atleast.
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Danville, CA
gregpfielding's website
edvard2 says
The second-half of the year is usually much better for buyers. Hang in there.
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San Jose, CA
We just got lucky I suppose.
gregpfielding says
What exactly should they hanging in there for?
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43 threads
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Danville, CA
gregpfielding's website
In normal years, the number of sales begins to fade in the summer. Buyers usually have less competition and a little more sway with sellers into the fall and winter.
This year, as the Spring rally fades and the mainstream press starts to question the housing recovery (like every year), it will probably shift to more of a buyer's market again.
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31 male
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So iwog, I know you are able to ingest the data and change your mind. You had said previously that once house prices resumed an upward trend, so would interest rates. Do you still feel this is true? Because then you would feel that rates should hit an inflection point and reverse their 30 year trend downward, any day now, no?
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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errc says
That would be my assumption yes, however interest rate trends are measured over years and not weeks.
The fed has operation twist going full tilt which is holding down long term rates. I'm not sure how much this is depressing mortgage rates, but it's having some effect. There's also the wealth disparity trend which has the effect of pouring more money into lending than there are consumers which can also hold rates down.
This is uncharted territory so I'm far from certain what happens next.
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gregpfielding says
We bought. Got lucky, as mentioned. I could care less if the house goes up in value. Houses aren't investments anyway. They're a place to live. But the market is really weird. Its not typical, that's for sure. There's just not a lot for sale. Every open house we went to was absolutely jam-packed. Stuff around us that usually stayed on the market for 4-5 months sold in 2-3 weeks.
So- you've got no supply, very low rates, plus I also think that at least in the Bay Area a lot of people are suddenly thinking its "ok" to buy now, and thus there's more overall interest in buying period. A lot of people like us who sat out the bubble and saved up are now looking.
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San Jose, CA
gregpfielding says
LOL... why are you telling somebody who just bought a house to hang in their????? LOL
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San Jose, CA
Oh, the wisdom of realtors is beyond belief. LOL
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Los Angeles, CA
In non ghetto/good school areas- I am seeing flips being priced at 2005 price levels. Buy at 450, flip at 650k (standard 4 bedroom 2 bath debt trap for families wanting good schools - the same targets as always).
I wouldnt flip in the ghetto now, only the good school areas - people will pay any amount of $ for their kids. And it does add up if you got 3 kids in private school probably better to move to the local fortress and get an ARM loan and put em in public school.
Seriously its feeling like 2005. Except with foreclosures everywhere. so weird! never before seen housing market like this one.
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19 threads
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Los Angeles, CA
Seriously its crazy now. Seems like bubble pricing is back.
Here is one that sold in 06 for 640k
It just listed at 619k and is now immediately in escrow.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Agoura-Hills/30615-Lakefront-Dr-91301/home/3368271
Lots of these to see, but not much inventory of course.
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San Francisco, CA
dublin hillz says
We are looking in a less "trendy" neighborhood, but I'm ok with that. Even a smaller house would be fine, because I am happy to knock out a wall or two and/or refinish the basement.
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Not that we're looking anymore ( obviously) but as of now there's no way I'd even consider SF, the Peninsula, or even maybe the Oakland hills. Those places are beyond crazy at this point and I wouldn't event try. Amazing how fast things changed- again maybe due to there being less inventory.
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19 threads
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Los Angeles, CA
I remember the bubble took off this fast also.
Because I was looking and buying at that time. I was looking in 99,00,01,02,03,04 to buy and selling in 05,06.
Basically the trend is that when prices are going up its INSANE and you CANT FIND ANYTHING at a fair price (only ever higher).
Down markets is everything is overpriced also - but very few sales, prices slowly slowly grind down.
After the 911 attacks they lowered int rates super low and started this whole mess from which we cannot apparently escape.
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Ducky, Did you see this one in your 'hood?
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Concord/1421-Nicholas-Dr-94520/home/863077
Bought in 2001 for $272,500
Refi for $416k in 2007
Foreclosed June 14, 2012 for $508,115
Currently listed for $240,400
Should be a good comp.
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50 comments
Pleasanton, CA
So does this mean I'm doomed. I've been looking in Oakland and am having such a hard time. 9 offers /one excepted then bank foreclosed. I've even gone so far as to check out Stockton and Modesto. The same thing is happening even there but not as fast as the Bay area. I want to diiiiiie!
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Laguna Beach, CA
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Carolyn C says
Brokers love buyers like you. I mean, with a passion.
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Since around the turn of the millennium (or the 911 attacks as suggested above). the real estate market has been distorted so much as to render it completely dysfunctional. Take your pick: the insane lending practices and programs, and lack of inventory of 2001 to 2006, the financial and foreclosure crisis of 2007 to 2010, the lack of new construction from 2008 to present, now lack of inventory (2011-present) to the arguably insanely low interest rates of most of the last 12 years, but even more magnified since 2008 (how much lower can they go? 2%? 1%). Makes the 80s and 90s seem downright quaint by comparison.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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Carolyn C says
Is your landlord doing nasty stuff with the rent price or something? A lot of your posts seem to convey that you are really anxious to borrow for a house. I can understand the desire for home ownership, but it is always best to step back and weigh the costs and benefits. A house is a new set of compromises, some things superior to renting, some inferior. You have to keep a cool head about you or you will end up as either another foreclosure statistic, or roped into a house that you have no money left to furnish (but you'll furnish it anyway on credit, putting even more stress in your life).
I am dead serious: get a piece of paper and make two columns. Renting and Buying. First list the pro's of buying and the con's of renting. Then list the con's of buying and the pro's of renting. If you can't come up with any pro's for renting or con's for buying, then you shouldn't buy because you aren't thinking rationally yet. Now, if you get a healthy list and the pro's of buying outweigh the con's, or really outweigh the pro's of renting, then sure, make steps toward buying. Maybe it is just me, but actually listing out my fears / worries always makes me feel better because that list is always shorter than I think it is before doing it!
My fiancee and I are also really irritated that the Bay Area is all frothed up and turning into a speculator's wonderland. It is life though. We are all rooting for a responsible system that requires 20%+ down payments, some sort of limitation on speculator/investor activity* and lower prices overall, but life isn't fair and certainly there have been far greater injustices all throughout history. Hell, I am in industrial China for work right now and I can tell you that none of us have a darn thing to whine about if we are fortunate enough to live in one of the best climates in the greatest country on Earth. It's all about perspective, and a lot of people can't see beyond the Bay Area, which is why we get insanity like parents refusing to vaccinate children. People don't have REAL problems in the Bay Area, and should be grateful for it rather than complaining. Sorry if it sounds harsh, but it is the way of things. People in the Bay Area, myself included, do not have any real problems when you take the world as a whole.
*yeah, certainly not ALL of us p'netters are rooting for that one lol...
Options in the Bay Area:
- Rent, toss out emotional illusions and learn to enjoy your life while you can, because it is finite
- Borrow as much as you absolutely can with no regard for the future and finance a house, and try to enjoy life under a mountain of debt
- Leave the area for somewhere more reasonable and make a life there, adjusting to the place and enjoying it
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The propaganda machine of the REIC has been brainwashing Americans so well for so long this poor Carolyn C. is thinking of going into decades of debt so she can live in Stockton.
ARE YOU INSANE?
That could well be ground zero for the oft mentioned Cannibal Anarchy.
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19 threads
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Los Angeles, CA
DUDES!
Lets remember in CA a mortgage purchase loan is NON RECOURSE and thus you can walk away scot free (unless you HELOC over 150k, apparently they changed the law and you get 150k free heloc with a house purchase that they cannot get from you unless they prove fraud?)
anyway..... The only skin in game u got is your down payment.
FHA wants 3.5% but allows seller to contribute 6% - thats a 102.5% loan that is non recourse. (i know u pay MI w/low dp, but what they hell its a 729k loan!)
They have also brought back interest only loans. yep. not FHA though. Try unionbank.com a 400k IO ARM at 3.2% is $1100 - compare that to your rent payment.
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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pazuzu says
I went to college in Stockton (U of the Pacific). Spent 5 years there. Honestly, parts of that city are actually really nice; beautiful older houses with a lot of character and large lots. I am not even talking about the gated communities there. It would actually work well as a place to retire...close enough to the BA and Yosemite for trips out, inexpensive and quiet for living. The obvious issues there are the lack of high paying jobs and the crime, although if you aren't stupid you will never have an issue with the crime. Stockton gets a really bad reputation, but damn near everyone that talks trash has never lived there. I greatly prefer the Bay Area at this stage in life, but being that many of my hobbies center on crafting and fabrication, Stockton would be a decent place to retire. Now that Stockton declared bankruptcy, things may even improve since the city is freeing itself from budget-breaking entitlements and union contracts.
Anyway, it is by no means a paradise, but it isn't nearly as bad as people say it is. People in the Bay Area like to snub their noses at it to make themselves feel better about paying out the ass for crummy rentals and houses.
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4 threads
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Fremont, CA
bmwman is offering very sound advice as a balance sheet usually helps determine what makes sense if you are accurate in your assumptions.
I agree with Dublin Hillz. I can afford to rent a much nicer home than I am willing to buy.
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San Jose, CA
@bmwman91 Good advice on renting, I would just add to that, that renting is an opportunity to save save save!
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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evilmonkeyboy says
Darn tootin'! (or damn straight for those not gifted with the linguistic arts of the hick). Rent cheap, go out and life your life with enough money to DO what you want. The operative word is DO.
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BoomAndBustCycle says
I used to think the same too... I always thought when we bought it would be a much crappier house than we were renting, but it turned out the opposite. I found a fixer in January which has turned out to be much, much nicer than our rental and the monthly payment is the same! I know we were lucky, but I think after the first of the year you may see more discounted properties. NEVER, NEVER buy in the spring or summer! You will get screwed! NEVER follow the herd! Look for something that needs work - sweat equity! Look and you will be rewarded! I have been looking since 2004...
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Pleasanton, CA
My situation is special. I would be insane NOT to buy even at inflated rates. I won't share with you my circumstances. But I don't have forever to buy. My living situation is a bit unbearable living with three kids 10,12,13 in a tiny 800sf apartment that has no insulation over a south facing carport that heats up to 92 degrees on hot days has been torture. Not third world torture. Yes I do have alot to be grateful for and I have always been a whiner. The lure of Stockton/Modesto is their $50,000 homes for sale. $217.00 a month rent or less depending on how much I put down is so tempting. My kids sail in the bay and I need to be closer. My Debt will stay pretty much the same either way.
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1sfrenter says
Zillow sucks and is really inaccurate! If you are looking at values use redfin price this house application..
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edvard2 says
We just bought in March and are very happy! We bought a fixer and now have over $100k in equity. It's crazy I know, but it's the truth! I feel guilty, but I am glad not to have to worry about my payment going up! Since I got a really low a lot of my payment is going to equity... I am happy with our purchase!
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19 threads
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Los Angeles, CA
yeah my friend bought in jan and has over 100k in equity based on recent comps now.
its just like 2003/4 'seemingly'
i actually bought a house in december 03 and then the next spring it went up 100k. (i sold it! thank god! you people with the ez 100k think about cashing in real hard)
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11 threads
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San Francisco, CA
bmwman91 says
Stockton is bankrupt: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/03/stockton-bankruptcy-cause-idINL2E8I32L820120703
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Los Angeles, CA
Iwog, sorry to switch subject - I seem to remember you had some good refinance experience with amerisave, right? Any advice on what to look out for with that company?
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San Francisco, CA
PockyClipsNow says
If you qualify income-wise, or buy in certain census tracts, you can get a decent loan through Union Bank with no PMI even if you put only 5% down ("Equal Opportunity Mortgage - Union Bank")
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Mountain View, CA
bmwman91's website
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1sfrenter says
Yup. In 3-5 years, it will probably be heralded as the best thing that ever happened to the place.
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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SubOink says
Just be quick with the documents. Have bank statements, tax returns, insurance forms, and prior mortgage forms ready to send the day you apply.
Amerisave lets you lock in a rate online, but you'll lose your lock if you don't jump through all their hoops.
Otherwise my experience has been mostly positive although they were extremely slow with my first refinance. They were quicker the second time.
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Hi Suboink. I see you're in LA so you might want to check out a company in Pasadena since it's close to you. A few months ago I re-financed one of my properties (most are paid for) with Security Pacific Home Loans and couldn't be happier. I would definately use them again if I ever need to. I have 800+ FICO so I was able to recieve the best rates. I don't have the time or patience to go back and forth with someone in a cubicle hundreds of miles away, scanning and uploading tax returns, assests, etc. I called one of the principles there, Raphy Kallegian (sp?), he told me what I needed to bring, I drove over there with dozens of pages of tax returns, insurance forms, and the other stuff that lenders require and personally handed it all to him. He had his secretary copy it and upload it to the system while he entered some other info into the computer and I walked out of there office in about 50 minutes. My next communication was about 25 days later to see if I wanted to come in or have a notary come to me since I was in another part of the state. I signed the papers the next day and it was a done deal.....very simple. They are located on Lake Ave. in Pasadena, CA just north of Colorado Blvd. 123 North Lake Avenue Pasadena, CA 91101
(626) 405-4300
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47 male
Lafayette, CA
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I've had bad experiences with local loan brokers. The last one screwed up my rate lock and ended up costing me a few thousand dollars.
What I like about Amerisave is that the borrower has some control over the process. They have also made good when the rate lock expired and they paid the fee to extend it.
I'm looking at Cash Call right now due to the fact they write 5-10 mortgages, but I don't have anything to buy right now.
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Los Angeles, CA
iwog says
Thanks Iwog!
Lurking, thanks for the contact. I have too many buddys that are brokers so if I wanted to go that route I'd use them as they are close friends but I personally don't really believe in brokers. We did our loan straight up thru WF and it was super easy and very fast and no broker could actually do better. I am considering doing one with them but their rate is not as aggressive as Amerisave.
Time to get them documents ready...
Sorry for the insert. You guys can go back to arguing when the economy will crash again or keep on crashing or what not. In the meantime, I'll refi and save more money :)
Happy 4th!
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The original loan was with WF so I tried to do it directly with them and they didn't have as good a rate and wanted points so I went with this outfit and he did a WF loan...........it's crazy, I had Wells Fargo, they wanted more money/not as good a term as I got and then after it's done WF sends me a letter thanking me for paying off the loan and then I get another letter a few weeks later thanking me for getting a WF loan. All that was done was money was moved in a circle and WF wanted more to do it so that's why I saved money with the broker. Good luck... you should at least check with your broker friends because it may save you money and a better rate than going directly to WF.