http://ochousingnews.com/news/house-prices-in-new-england-crashing
House prices in New England crashing
By golfplan18 Follow Wed, 4 Jul 2012, 7:51am 1,291 views 13 comments
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There isn't a shred of data in this entire article that indicates New England home prices are crashing.
Prices have been flat there just like most places.
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For once I actually agree with Iwog. Prices here really haven't "crashed". I don't think a drop of 10-20% over a six year period is a crash. This is not Phoenix but it isn't SF either.
Even if you go back further to mid 2006 you'll see prices didn't really tank
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/massachusetts/boston/
Inventories on the other hand have gone down. Granted of course it is seasonal here with the winter.
Upper end was about 550 in April 2006 went as low as 483K and is now 523K
That's a decline of 4%
Mid was 390 in April 2006, went as low as 310 and is now 334
14% decline
Low end about 300K went to 218 and is now 228k
A decline of 24%
"The median asking price for homes in Boston peaked in May 2006 at $389,920 and is now $55,020 (14.1%) lower. From a low of $310,920 in January 2012, the median asking price in Boston has increased by $23,980 (7.7%)."
You also have to factor in that the student population here is pretty high and that can prop up to a point the rental markets at least for apartments. We don't really have massive amounts of new home construction. Road construction sure but not homes. A friend of mine moved to VT and frankly that's the same. CT might have had some overflow speculation from the NYC area but that doesn't trickle down that far. Not all places are populated in Mass, the Cape especially.
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The article does say "New England", not Boston. New England is CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME all put together. I just love how IWOG always picks the single data point that most closely supports him even if it means ignoring a sea of contradictory data.
Ok, just like SF isn't all of CA, Boston is not all of NE. I don't know about the rest of New England but my friends in RI say it's been really bad with prices going from a statewide average of 300k down to 200k from the peak. Variations are much bigger depending on county/town. They live in TIverton and say TIverton/Fall River has just plain old crashed, like 50%+ down.
Let's look at other cities in NE. Springfield the second largest city in MA, Down 152 to 90. How about Manchester NH 335 to 150. Hartford CT 200 to 100. Providence RI, 270 to 100. Oddly no one has the numbers for Portland so call it unknown. I would call these crash numbers.
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bob2356 says
So what you're saying is New England is Massachusetts.....not Boston?
That's pretty funny. BTW Case Shiller measures the entire Boston metro area and not just the city proper.
bob2356 says
No source, no time reference, no ability to cross check. This is how you're disputing my Case Shiller data? With nothing?
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There are maybe four zip codes anyone would want to live in NE. Couple in Boston. Maybe one or two across the river.
Then there is the rest.
And it's doomed to be engulfed in the impending Cannibal Anarchy.
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Looks like they are flattening out, well based on the 2012 data , however linear regression might suggest otherwise if you look at the entire data series.
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iwog says
Geez do you actually read or just jump in. As I said, but will now write it out since you don't know states abbreviations, New England is 6 states: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Mass, Rhode Island, Connecticut for a total of 71,991.8 sq miles. The Boston Metro area (MSA) at 4674 sq miles is a very small part of New England. It's even a small part of Massachusetts at 10,554 sq miles. It's just not that big a city.
Several sources for data since shiller doesn't have the smaller cities, I will look up again and post if you insist, it's right though. Of course since IWOG is always right no matter what any data I provide it will be inadequate so I don't think I will bother.
Didn't you argue extensively with great vehemence time and time again that case schiller is meaningless when it showed prices that disagreed with your arguments? Why is it the bedrock of your post when it agrees with you? Curious.
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bob2356 says
Some data is always better than no data. Yes I insist because it helps everyone understand your position that New England home prices have fallen significantly since 2009.
bob2356 says
Not at all. I argued that Case Shiller long term data spanning many decades cannot be correct.
As far as short term market direction is concerned, it's probably the most accurate source out there. I'm sorry if you see these as contradictory because they aren't.
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"in New England, particularly New York"
NY is not part of NE. Keith Jurow has looked at NY data, which has nothing to do with NE. This summary of his work is hopelessly confused.
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bob2356 says
Um...Springfield might be down but there's a fair reason for that. It was hit by a freakin tornado!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/tornado-in-springfield-massachusetts
It's only been a year it takes time to rebuild. We aren't used to tornado's here, only hurricanes and they usually give us at least a half week to get prepared.
I wouldn't call these crash numbers because frankly you are looking at some areas that haven't grown that much to begin with. Much of the growth in the area was out of cities and into suburbs.
Boston is the biggest city in the region. Obviously it isn't on the same size of say NYC or LA or SF. But there's countless towns with less than 100k people where the market has been doing ok. It has been flat. Much of the development if you check a map illustrates bands around boston there is the rt 128 belt around it and then the rt 495 around that. Between these state roads are plenty of suburbs and a few cities
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Massachusetts_Route_128.png The population per square mile here is also pretty high. There's be no way we could make Phoenix style housing complexes without zoning, political and social issues. It's not like each house only houses one person or is owned by one here.
http://rismedia.com/2012-01-23/new-england-2012-housing-market-outlook-forecast/
I'm not claiming the market here is going to boom any time soon but it could be argued that we hit bottom.
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iwog says
My numbers are from 2007 peak, the same as your chart that you posted. Apples to apples ok?
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mdovell says
Ok I give up. The tail wags the dog. Boston is 5% of the land area, 20% of the population so therefore Boston is the entire New England market.