WatchHere's a clarification of why Dunnross is nothing more than a board troll.
On the following graph, Robert claims that the rise in inventory B is insignificant compared to the drop in inventory A.
Dunross demands that Robert prove B is insignificant by submitting a statistical regressive analysis of A versus B. Otherwise Dunross says he's going to claim victory and win the argument.
Now I don't really care if you think the housing market is going lower or higher or flat. However this type of childish stupidity should not be tolerated by anyone regardless of your views on the market.
Let this be on the record, that the two weasels, Iwog and his pet, are trying to weasel out of this argument, as always. Don't you think that this type of proof would be somewhat straightforward for a Berkeley graduating Math Professor? The point is, and it should now be obvious to everyone, that this rise in inventory is not Statistical Noise, because there is a fundamental explanation behind it. You see, there was a Foreclosure and Mortgage settlement filed in court back in March. This settlement is now clearing the way for more foreclosures coming down the pipe. In fact, there is a huge wave of foreclosures, coming in, and for Phoenix it's as certain as their annual heat wave. Of course, our two hoodlum realtards don't want you to know that, and, so they keep weaseling their way out, but this time around, I am sure that most of you would agree, that they are backed into a corner.
Oh, BTW, here is the link, which predicted this rise in foreclosures in Phoenix, back in March, and low and behold, it is here and now:
http://phoenixwaterfronttalk.com/2012/03/18/upcoming-wave-of-phoenix-foreclosures/
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Arizona has one of the highest rates of underwater homeowners in the nation.
Banks used to foreclose in 4 months during 2008-2009. In 2011 they have taken 9+ months on average. It's obvious why REO supply dropped. Banks are simply letting people squat for a half year more before they actually get to foreclosing, not because magically all the distressed homes were bought.
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dunnross says
NO, of course there is no way to PROVE it... Any more than if unemployment changes direction one month to PROVE that is the start of a counter trend... the problem is that you are very stupid, and don't understand this simple fact.
dunnross says
Again, facts get in the way of your theory.
In Maricopa County, a NTR filing has to be filed 90 days before a foreclosure can occur. This is the first place that we would notice this tsunami of foreclosures. What do we see so far? 4000 NTR's in June, down from 4800 in May, 4200 in April. In fact, these numbers are down 60% from a year ago, and compared to the peak number of 12,000 filed in 2008 show the simple fact that it is not occurring now, and not going to happen in the next six months... In fact, there isn't a single shred of evidence this is ever coming.
In June, there were 2000 foreclosures in Maricopa county, split roughly evenly between banks taking the property back, and investors buying them at the auction.
To put it in perspective, there were 9043 sales in June, of which 1329 where bank or HUD owned properties.
SO there are actually 300 LESS bank owned homes in the metro area at the end of June, compared to the beginning of June...
Add to that the 2700 short sales that occurred, and we can see zero sign of any impending market degradation whatsoever.
Now, go back to your silly insults. Anyone reading this can see who has the data, the facts, and the mathematical intelligence to put it together rationally, and who is the blowhard.
While this twit keeps shadowing every fact filled post with his stupidity, this is not an idle specuation for me. I am completing my investments in 14 properties for rental in this market, to the tune of 2 million dollars in current market value, and a rental stream of $5000 a month over all expenses including maintenance and vacanancy, plus $1500 in mortgage payoff a month... That is before we even factor in value increases, which seem all but certain given the data.
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robertoaribas says
Ask yourself what those increases will be worth when the place now known as Phoenix is reduced to a 24/7 free fire fight between rival neonazi cannibal hoards, christianist nativist cults and bands of starving Mexicans.
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I removed the account of "Crashing Housing" who just kept changing his username, trolling, and pissing everyone off. That also removed threads he created, and that was probably one of them.
Even after many warnings, he contined to say things like : "Iwog you filthy fuckin' liar."
I don't like to delete anyone or suppress anything, but that guy just made continuous insults, all the time.
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robertoaribas says
The only thing you are good at is fabricating numbers. Which Berkeley math class did you have to take to learn that? There are 20000 foreclosures in Maricopa county, not 2000.
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That's too bad Patrick, Realtors deserve to be called liars for about 10 years.
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Real mathematicians cashed out in 2007 by betting against mortgage-linked CDOs.
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Patrick,
Some comments do get old, including mine.
I'm changing my username to FILTHY FUCKING LIAR. ROFL
I never know what source to believe, but this is a whole bunch. LOL
http://www.foreclosure.com/search/AZ_013.html
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HEY YOU says
Let this go on record on how much faith you can have when realtors throw out numbers.
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I do not mind "liar" if you have some real evidence of a lie. That would arguably be truth and not merely slander.
I very much mind "filthy fucking" used many times. Even once. It just degrades the whole forum.
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Patrick says
Patrick, problem is that there is a huge campaign going on in NAR & CAR today, to get people to buy overpriced real estate. They are trying to resuscitate this bear market back to life, by resorting to the most immoral means. These trolls are hungry for sales, and they are on the hunt for gullible people. Since they ran out of most gullible fools back in 2005, they are now using smart "Mathematicians" like roberto to sucker people back into the market. "Crashing Housing" had the right approach with them, because he didn't try to counter them with facts or numbers. These tactics proved to be ineffective, because these guys are professional con artists.
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dunnross says
the problem is, you seem to have a reading comprehension issue.. I posted there were 2000 foreclosures in the month of June. I also posted the exact monthly NTR filing for the past 3 months, totally up to 13,000 filed foreclosings in just the past 3 months. Incidentally, at its peak, there were over 54,000 homes in the foreclosure process, so 20,000 is a stunning improvement in just a couple years!
I don't fabricate numbers, I analyze them...
You are simply too uneducated and opinionated to talk to; You cannot even recognize the difference between numbers of foreclosures in the pipeline, and number that happened in a month, and hence think that is a discrepancydunnross says
That very article that you linked, says that foreclosures in Non judicial states have dropped by 23%... DID YOU EVEN READ THE ARTICLE BEFORE POSTING IT TO BACK YOUR CASE????
It is actually funny, that your own links and graphs can be used to disprove you! Really, you might practice reading your sources, and learn how to think, before you embarrass yourself further.
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dunnross says
That's just clearly not true. CH or whatever his name was on any given day has posted nothing but repetitive and insulting nonsense from the start. He had no other purpose but to annoy and offend.
As for your conspiracy theory about Iwog and Roberto, well you give your opinion and they give theirs. They do try to back up their views with data, so I fail to see what your problem is with them. You may not like what they are saying but that doesn't make them mouthpieces for the real estate business.
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You still have to live in AZ. I called my friend who lives in Phoenix at around 7 pm one day and she said it had cooled down to just a tad above 100 !!
However Sedona, Flagstaff are nice places-don't know why Phoenix developed and those places did not.
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You either like free speech of you don't.
Even if the two guys mentioned are sometimes correct about house prices *in there particular market* doesn't mean shit.
1.9% GDP growth, 1% real wage growth, 47 million on food stamps, etc.
People pay their mortgage with wages.
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Preach it clambo!
But its even worse isn't it? USA incomes have been falling for quite some time.
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"Dunnross says:
Oh, BTW, here is the link, which predicted this rise in foreclosures in Phoenix, back in March, and low and behold, it is here and now:
http://phoenixwaterfronttalk.com/2012/03/18/upcoming-wave-of-phoenix-foreclosures/
Im not sure you actually read what your source article indicates, because if you did, you will notice it says, verbatim:
"No tsunami or tidal wave on the horizon for Arizona."
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lostand confused says
It's great to shoot at neonazi cannibal hoards at full auto in 110 degree heat, shrieking for them to burn in hell forever, the sweat streaming down your face and back and cooking the blood of your adversaries when it hits your flesh. Phoenix will be the heart of cannibal anarchy!
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pazuzu says
Pretty much fucked by '77 or '78.
If the house was paid for, pension vested and kids finished college OK. After that, you were fucked rising prices of everything that mattered and wage stagnation. In the end, the rich will be whoever is holding the fork and losers will be however is on the fork.
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dunnross says
I agree that the NAR and CAR have very busy propoganda arms which do indeed lie or otherwise distort the truth to get people to overpay for a house.
But I object to using "filthy fucking" etc in referring to anyone on this forum.
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Patrick,
Thanks for keeping your site clean for decent opinion without insults. This is one of the problems with this country, we can no longer engage in civil discourse while maintaining the only difference between us and the animals.
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I agree, calling someone a "filthy f*cking liar" is ridiculous and immature.
I also think roberto calling people "morons" or "half wits" is bordering the line as well, and he tends to be abusive and use personal insults in pretty much every post where anyone questions inventory levels in Phoenix.
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Goran_K says
If anyone wants to question or discuss anything, I can do so politely. When EVERY post I write I am immediately called a liar, told I made up the numbers, and contradicted with complete nonsense, yeah I tend to insult the other poster...
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Patrick says
Thank you! I've never seen a bigger troll on ANY moderated forum.
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Patrick says
I think "Crashing Housing" had a negative effect on the quality of discussion here. However much I agreed with him/her (read as "desired") that home prices would crash, merely repeating that with every post didn't do much except make perma-bulls look like sane people.
Perhaps a measure of trollishness is really the number of people that have a user on ignore. If that goes beyond a threshold, you have a potential troll that you need to watch.
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robertoaribas: With the heavy influx of cash-investors in AZ, do you foresee rental prices heading down in the near-future?
I have no data to back it up, but it seems like there are many investors fleeing from low-yields in other markets and into SFHs.
In addition to the increase rental supply hitting the market monthly, those investors may be satisfied with a low 3% ROI if it means quick rentals and no vacancies.
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robertoaribas says
You know roberto, I actually like the data you bring up about your local market, if even as a simple intellectual exercise since I have no interest in actually living (or investing in) Arizona.
But I feel your points get washed over and marginalized when you slather them with personal insults.
IMHO.
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zesta says
That is a good question, and one I spent/spend a great deal of time studying. Obviously, as investors buy foreclosed homes, that puts more rental supply on the market. However, it is likely that the former owner is now a renter so i view those as a wash.
1.5 years ago, when I started buying, the rental market was very very weak. I read at the time that valley wide, the rate of vacancy was 12 or 14 percent or something, and can personally attest to only few calls on my rentals. I remodeled mine nicer than the surrounding ones, and took a very active quick response to all inquiries to get them rented.
Today, when I look on the mls or craigslist around my properties, there seems to be less competition, and slightly higher prices, which is a trend I'm certainly very happy to see.
Now, my properties are all more centrally located, so I can't speak to the more far flung areas, maybe the vacancy rates are higher there.
Will investors chase ROI's down to 3%? My goodness, I hope so! I'll happily start selling then! Rentals are a pain in the butt and much higher risk than other investments, so without a much higher ROI I wouldn't do it!
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zesta says
I don't have the knowledge of the Phoenix market that Roberto has, but if you look at Las Vegas which also attracted a lot of investor money post-crash, I think you'll find a somewhat comparable case to look at.
In short, Vegas crashed hard (just like Phoenix). Investors ran in full force to pick up properties priced at fire sale prices. The rental market was great for investors for the last three months of 2009 and the first half of 2010, in effect it seemed like things stabilized, kind of like what Roberto is describing in Phoenix. However, since the 2nd half of 2010, rents have steadily dropped since then (not crashed but slowly drifted down). I could see the same thing happening to Phoenix as that particular market attracts more investor money and the market becomes saturated.
DoctorHousingBubble had a good article detailing the falling rental prices in Las Vegas that he posted about 5 months ago (ironically enough, the Doctor quotes a post from Patrick.net):
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/doubling-down-on-rentals-las-vegas-real-estate-las-vegas-rentals/
When it comes down to it, I find it very hard to believe that investor demand will provide enough juice for a housing recovery in any market. Investors by definition, and in practice, cannot be the sole source for any recovery, and with 70% cash transactions in Las Vegas, we know for certain it's not "the people" buying up all those houses.
There is a caveat here though, in the fact that supply is being squeezed at the moment (I believe artificially but some say otherwise). This wasn't a characteristic of 2009-2010. That being said, I believe this is a temporary situation, robo-signing scandals aside, at some point, the banks aren't going to let underwater, non-paying, loan owners squat forever (or will they?).
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Rents could turn south again, who knows...Especially if the economy enters another dip of the recession.
Phoenix has been adding jobs over the past year or year and a half, while I believe Vegas has not, but we will only get the answer to these questions as time goes on.
Also, if I recall from that thread, those rentals were sort of way out on the fringe, which isn't my investment plan. I try to buy near employment centers, near Arizona State University, and/or on the light rail lines.
But obviously, there is risk. You study the market as best you can, and make your best bets! That's all you can do!
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lostand confused says
Too many crystal shops and yoga nerds.
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robertoaribas says
Thanks for the reply. I agree that a former foreclosed owner probably becomes a renter and the new influx of rentals may not be a huge concern.
In your opinion did PHX and LV crash harder than other metro-areas because of overbuilding? If overbuilding were one of the causes, perhaps there may be additional drops in rental rates due to extra supply, not just extra rentals. In any case though, I think you're covering yourself in that scenario by buying near employment hubs.
Thanks for your input on this site. I'm amazed you have no qualms posting on this site without an anonymous alias.
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I had in the past couple weekends been to both Vegas and Scottsdale to get a look at potential investment to turn into rental properties and IMHO, it's risky. Not because I think rents will go down, which it possibly will, but because the class of people whom you'd potentially be renting to. The upside is small compared to the potential downside the large demographic of people living in those towns. I was taken aback by the people there. The best way to describe the locals would be just a notch above Mad Max or the locals of the Salton Sea area.