Watch1) Who wins the Whitehouse and by how much?
a) The House
b) The Senate
2) The Market will/won't rally/collapse?
3) Housing will/won't collapse?
4) Any Large failures? Business, small or large Government entities?
Any other predictions? Serious only...since we will quote you when you are proven wrong!
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47 male
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1. Obama wins in November by 5%
a. House: Republicans although the margin will narrow a bit from 2010.
b. Senate: Republicans by 1 or 2 seats.
2. The market will remain relatively flat.
3. Housing will not collapse. 2013 lows will be higher than 2012 lows.
4. E*trade will disappear and be bought by TD or Schwab
5. gold and silver will continue to decline. No spike in interest rates or inflation.
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1) Obama wins comfortably, loses some battlegroud states like Florida and Ohio around 290's - 240's.
1a) lower house R. maintains confortable lead, that's all it matters
1b) Will be slight gain at most. 52/48. that's all it matters.
2) The market will do what it has recently. Summer doldrums followed by year-end and new year rally again. +5-10% YOY.
3) No chance housing wil collapse (which I presume to mean -10% YOY. At worst, it will be a flat market or slightly lower.
4) Apple killed Nokia and RIMM, GRMN is next.
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1-4: We're Screwed.
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1) Obama wins comfortably, both in the College and in popular vote (I like 5% in the popular)
a) Big sweep in the house but Dems fail to retake the majority
b) Senate adds one or two to Democratic majority
2) DJI closes above 13 by EOY, with steady increases overall through 2013. Hits 14k
3) Housing falls more overall. Bay Area, including SF drops at least 5%
4) Unemployment falls to 7 and change by EOY, continues fall in 2013.
5) AAPL hits $700 by eoy
6) Oil prices drop in the next quarter
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1. Romney Wins.
2. Mormons take delivery of tactical nukes and take out suburbs of Sacramento.
3. Romney and LDS demand surrender of all states West of the Mississippi to the LDS Plenipotentiary.
3. Republican-controlled Congress repeals 13th and 14th and 19th Amendments.
4. Romney accepts legislation but includes signing memo that declares Latinos and Italians and Jews as 'Negro'.
5. Starving neonazi irregulars face off against the newly formed NeoNegro Militia, LDS Plenipotentiary occupation forces and the US's White Power Defense Force, which rejected Pentagon command when it is revealed newly appointed generals to the JCS are all Mormon bishops.
6. Eastern cities are laid to waste and irradiated by fast-thinking nuclear strikes.
7. Romney surrenders the USA to the LDS North American Plenipotentiary.
8. LDS Plenopotentiary appoints Romney Sublime Porte for life.
9. Romney appears on TV and tells reporters that everything he's done is legal and that if anyone has concerns maybe they ought to get with a temple leader and get their minds right.
10. Washington DC is bulldozed into the Potomac and the Capital of the Mormon States of America is moved to Salt Lake City.
11. Romney sons announce they are taking an extra 550 wives each and will begin creating the 'Timeless American Dynasty of Mormon."
12. NAR announced it's never been a better time to buy or sell a house.
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APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Tell us something we don't know!!
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CL says
Hehehehe.
Zo. You agree the other 11 predictions are reasonable propositions?
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APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says
Of course. It's not a question of "if" but "when"! :)
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Exactly.
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SFace says
Garman's existence is assured because of general aviation. They aren't just in the business of making stuff that's sold at Best Buy. Stick your head inside most any Cessna, Piper (new and old) or Beechcraft and you'll see Garman avionics and radio gear.
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iwog says
If we have a Republican Congress and Obama stays in office, we would go another four years without a Federal budget. Obama's last budget was rejected 97-3 in the Senate...and that can't continue.
Also, Obama can't win without Ohio and Florida. If he doesn't win them it's game over.
Ohio has not failed to predict a presidential race since 1960 and this year will be no different. Why do you think he's spending so much time there?
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He's leading in the polls in Ohio. And the thing about those rules, is that they only apply until they're updated, modified or reexamined. A lot has changed since 1960, electorally and otherwise.
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CL says
OK...well, I know the area and that doesn't make sense. He'll carry Cuyahoga and Summit counties for sure (if Mondale and Dukakis carried them, Obama sure as hell will) but Franklin and Hamilton are very unlikely and that's where the action is.
Out of sixteen districts, Ohio will only have three Democrats in its entire House delegation in the next Congress. Why? The 2010 elections and then reapportionment/redistricting. You and I know that won't last forever but for that trend to not continue in 2012 (especially considering that Ohio is, due to its demographics, Tea Party fucking central) does not make sense. It will continue. It may intensify.
And...if THAT is the state Obama is banking on to get him a second term (just as Kerry was hoping he would win it in 2004 and nearly did), I'll just say the odds are against it.
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This just popped up:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/brad-pitts-mother-pens-anti-345647
I don't give two shits about Brad Pitt or his wife or his mother but my point is that Ohio (and Pennsylvania for that matter, excepting the area around Philadelphia) is highly predominated with people like his mother...and they VOTE. They determine races there and for that reason I don't think Obama can win Ohio this year.
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rootvg says
Obama really only needs to win Ohio or Florida. But I do agree that who ever wins Ohio will probably win the election.
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http://www.270towin.com/
Looks pretty easy this time. Play along!
rootvg says
Fair enough.
Here's the aggregate from RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
I think RCP leans to the right too, but that might not be just because they are conservatives, but because they include the outlier, Rasmussen polls.
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Romney will win in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, and Iowa, but I have no idea who will win the election.
iwog says
Possibly so, but I think the demise of another major retailer like Best Buy or JCP is more likely.
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Quick note on the electoral math:
Ohio is do-or-die for Obama. Florida is do-or-die for Romney. They're both competitive, but lean differently: if Romney takes Ohio then he'll almost certainly have Florida and clinch the election; and if Obama takes Florida then he'll almost certainly have Ohio.
Michigan is another important swing state, and will probably go whichever way Ohio does. They're both heavy manufacturing states where the auto bailout will be a key issue. That's not enough to clinch it for Obama if he takes both, but gets him pretty close. He'd only need to pick up something like 10 electoral votes out of Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Romney would have to sweep (or nearly sweep) these states if Obama takes Ohio and Michigan.
The strategic texture of the electoral college probably favors Obama by a reasonable margin; but the economic picture is shaping up to benefit Romney. Far too close to call right now.
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msilenus says
I really don't think Michigan is in play. Romney is more likely to get Colorado, Nevada, or New Hampshire than Michigan.
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zzyzzx says
I think that's right. But does Ohio go the way Michigan does, which is likely towards Obama? If so, I'd say Romney is getting trounced.
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You know, Romney is a really upstanding guy, family man, smart businessman, extremely generous with his time and money ... so why does he scare me so much? Maybe it's the last decade of being screwed over by smart businessmen who do the sort of things that made him rich that's making me shy away from this paragon of capitalism. Not that I don't believe capitalism has its place, it surely does as a motivator for imperfect people to make a society produce while serving individual self interest. This is vital, and most people understand it intuitively, if they haven't had intuition educated out of them yet. But the kind of crooked business we've seen lately has us calling foul and theft, and practically nobody in government seeming to give a rip. Romney fits snugly into the role of the guy who sent our jobs overseas, and so, regardless of his moral superiority over the president, we are scared of what he may do to further consolidate the stranglehold big banks have on our America, that he may actually hand out the jackboots that hedge fund owned business presses down on our necks.
Has the Obama administration failed to help the economy back to its feet? Absolutely! Obama has no clue what he is doing when it comes to the economy, and furthermore is too proud to take suggestions from those who do. I'd like to see him gone for any number of arrogant self serving things he's done with his term.
But, at least in thEory, he's the candidate for the working class, ready to uphold worker rights against big business.
So that's why I'm waivering here. Sometimes the devil you know is less scary than the devil you don't.
I voted Ron Paul, the the Main stream media demonized him effectively and he had no chance.
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Quigley says
Do some research about how Bain Capital "earned" money and you'll never again consider voting for Mitt Romney. Most of his deals followed this pattern:
1. buy company
2. use good corporate credit to borrow hundreds of millions
3. steal money through dividends and fees
4. abandon company to irrelevancy or bankruptcy.
There are no exaggerations or untruths here.
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Exactly, iwog, I have done the research on Bain. It's vulture capitalism in truth, and Romney was the CEO. They put up Staples and Dominos as success stories but those are more like examples to throw off the investigators. I agree with everything you said. Romney made his millions in a legal but dishonest way. It's really just a testament to how disgusted I am with Obama that I can even entertain the notion of this shark running the country.
However it would make sense from a historical POV. If you consider that the housing boom/bust was a setup to 1) transfer wealth away from middle class and then 2)make housing cheap again so workers would accept lower wages, then things make sense. To compete on the global market, American workers had to have a serious pay cut. But with housing high, that was unrealistic. Everyone was going to be a rich rock star in the 90s. So they orchestrate a financial disaster that would hit everyone. Then, when you're just trying to feed your family and not be homeless, that $12/hour job at the copper pipe factory (Mississippi) looks pretty good.
Romney would be the perfect person to preside over the extreme wealthy class's return to power. If things go as they have in history, we'll have the bad old days of 14 hour shifts at dual income families just to pay bills, child labor, and a political system that forces us to choose between a Douchebag and a Turd Sandwich (credit Southpark). (if you vote for a third party you're throwing your vote away!)
Bad news for working people.
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Quigley says
What do Presidents do to cure the economy? What role does Congress play in all of that? And most Presidents are not macro-economists. They surround themselves with people who do know, and seek counsel from people their team identify with. Obama has Volcker on his team, praised by Dems, Republicans and Ron Paul. Bush et al have had the troglodyte neocons who got us where we are.
It's too easy to say, "A pox on both your houses".