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So, Do You REALLY Think We Are At The Bottom???

By Call it Crazy   Follow   Thu, 12 Jul 2012, 7:38am   4,773 views   85 comments
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RealtyTrac: 2Q foreclosure activity rises as some states see reboot
http://www.housingwire.com/news/realtytrac-2q-foreclosure-activity-rises-some-states-see-reboot

snip:
....."Foreclosures starts in the second quarter saw a 9% increase from the first quarter and rose 6% from 2Q 2011, marking the first year-over-year increase in quarterly foreclosure starts since the fourth quarter of 2009, according to RealtyTrac's Midyear 2012 Foreclosure Market Report."

snip:
...."In California, June also brought a 18% year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts, boosting the state's foreclosure rate to the highest nationwide for the month, marking the first time California's monthly foreclosure rate ranked No. 1 since RealtyTrac began reporting the numbers in 2005."

snip:
...."First-half foreclosure activity increased from a year ago in 20 states, including Indiana (32%), Pennsylvania (24%), South Carolina (23%), Connecticut (23%), Florida (23%) and Illinois (22%). But even with those dramatic increases, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia posted the top state foreclosure rates in the first half of the year."

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1. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   46   1:28pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Protected   Call it Crazy says You can do new kitchens (or any normal maintainence) on a $100. a month/$1200. a year repair budget???? I call B.S. on that!! A kitchen remodel isn't normal maintenance. Most of my units have their original kitchen cabinets and I always upgrade to tile which will easily last 20-30 years. The only thing an ordinary landlord would have to do regarding the kitchen is replace the stove, dishwasher, refrigerator, or oven every 10-15 years. The cost is miniscule. This is the second time you've twisted what I said to misrepresent me. Please stop. Call it Crazy says A roof, kitchen or bath would take years to break even before considering anything else like paint, carpet and other repairs. Sorry, you blew it.. A 40 or 50-year composition roof is $10,000 out the door with new gutters and should last longer than the average investor will. I generally complete all necessary painting between tenants myself and it takes a single day and about $150 in paint. Carpets need replacing about once every 5-7 years and cost about $2000. $100 a month is all inclusive. I didn't just throw the number out there, it's an accurate estimate of all repairs in a 3-br, 2-ba rental home.

2. tatupu70 Follow Befriend (3) 15 threads 5,718 comments

   47   1:34pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Call it Crazy says So, as Iwog states, is $100 a month budget realistic?? As Iwog states again, yes.

3. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 249 threads 2,915 comments

   48   1:40pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   iwog says This is the second time you've twisted what I said to misrepresent me. Please stop. You have misrepresented yourself... I'm just busting your balls because I also do all my own repairs, upgrades, and maintainence, so I know the costs... the numbers you throw out don't work in price and in reality... But if they work for you (or you believe they do in your fantasy), I'm happy for you!!!

4. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

   49   1:45pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Sheesh, how can a discussion on house maintenance get so personal?

5. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   50   1:47pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   wthrfrk80 says Sheesh, how can a discussion on house maintenance get so personal? Yeah, let's turn down the temperature here guys. It's not that serious a discussion.

6. everything Follow Befriend (2) 3 threads 565 comments Madison, WI

   51   1:51pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Debt driven society, cash flows are all that matter.

7. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 210 comments

   52   1:53pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says Yeah, repairing a kitchen every 15 years for a rental is ridiculous. That kitchen would be in disrepair by year 3 or 4 with no maintenance, same with bathrooms, carpet and interior paint. Depends on the renters, but if the renters were causing items to be in disrepair, it'd be coming out of their deposit

8. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 210 comments

   53   1:57pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says I think that's a big worry, but also this whole ponzi model is dependent on rates remaining low across the board. If rates were to rise even 1% to 1.5%, do you think investors would park their money in bottom barrel REOs in Phoenix, Las Vegas, or Concord, CA? I think everyone knows the answer to that question. I'll take a stab at your implication too... Are you implying that the investors will sell properties to chase higher returns in other markets if rates rise?

9. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

   54   2:00pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   zesta says Depends on the renters, but if the renters were causing items to be in disrepair, it'd be coming out of their deposit Only if it was detected before they left, and you could prove they were negligent and caused the damage. For instance, I am renting a 4 bedroom home right now. The toilet seals for both bathrooms began leaking only 2 months into my lease. I called the owner, and it took one and a half days for their "handy man" to come out, all the while I'm soaking up the water that is slowly leaking out with my own towels. Well the water had soaked into the bathroom floor, requiring not only the seal replacement, but also removal of some of the floor to get rid of the water damage, and then the floor had to be replaced again. Total repair bill according to their "handy man" came out to over $2,900 dollars. The previous renters didn't pay for it, and I didn't pay for it, it came straight out of the owners pocket. According to iwog's budget, that is nearly 2.5 years of funds in that one single repair. I'm not saying iwog's budget is unrealistic, but after seeing a nearly $3,000 bill to repair two toilets, and bathroom floors, I can see why being a landlord isn't for everyone.

10. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    55   2:02pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Any kind of work like that you have to do yourself. Any hired help will overcharge or scam you. They're no better than auto mechanics.

11. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 249 threads 2,915 comments

    56   2:03pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   Goran_K says Yeah, let's turn down the temperature here guys. It's not that serious a discussion. Who said it was serious??? I thought we were having fun!!!! Now what is serious, I'm suppose to be working here but you guys are distracting me!! I'm not being very productive today, but I AM having FUN!!! wthrfrk80 says Sheesh, how can a discussion on house maintenance get so personal? ..too much coffee today????

12. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    57   2:04pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says I'm not being very productive today, but I AM having FUN!!! I'm trying to be productive but I'm having too much fun ordering stuff on NewEgg.com (and Patrick.net)

13. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 249 threads 2,915 comments

    58   2:04pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Goran_K says Total repair bill according to their "handy man" came out to over $2,900 dollars. The previous renters didn't pay for it, and I didn't pay for it, it came straight out of the owners pocket. According to iwog's budget, that is nearly 2.5 years of funds in that one single repair. You proved my point!!

14. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    59   2:05pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says ..too much coffee today???? 2 cups...

15. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    60   2:06pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   Call it Crazy says You proved my point!! Glad to help. I'm not saying my situation should be representative of what any rental owner should expect, but I also don't think my situation is rare and isolated either. You add in leaking sinks, overloaded washer that spills water, rain water leaking into unproperly sealed double door, roof damaged by high wind allowing water to leak into home, clogged gutters making water flow into areas that aren't on a declining gradient (so the water pools), clogged or improper plumbing, replacing kitchen/bathroom fans, replacing light bulbs, broken fixtures and door knobs, any type of floor damage, mold remediation, dry rot damage, termite infestation... God help you if you get a slab leak. Good luck getting the "renters" to pay for that out of their deposit.

16. BoomAndBustCycle Follow Befriend 28 threads 353 comments

    61   2:12pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says Repairs done correctly and with superior materials Hey Iwog, The renters questioning you live in shit-box rentals and don't appreciate things "done correctly" with "superior materials". They personally wouldn't pay extra for luxuries and nice things, so in their minds, you can't get higher rent for upgrades and repairs.

17. freak80 Follow Befriend (4) 52 threads 4,416 comments Corning, NY Premium

    62   2:16pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   The second law of thermo is a real b*tch.

18. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 249 threads 2,915 comments

    63   2:21pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike (2)   wthrfrk80 says Call it Crazy says ..too much coffee today???? 2 cups... Hell, I'm way ahead of you!!!! (maybe that's my problem why I'm in "rare" form today!)

19. Call it Crazy Follow Befriend 249 threads 2,915 comments

    64   2:28pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike (2)   Goran_K says I'm not saying my situation should be representative of what any rental owner should expect, but I also don't think my situation is rare and isolated either. It's definitely not, I think it is normal wear and tear.. I've probablly done thousands in repairs in the rental I'm in (counting labor). I found it was just easier to do what needed to be done than hassle with trying to get the landlord here. Plus, my landlord is the ultimate "shoemaker" and "Rube Goldberg" when it comes to repairs, so for the safety of my family, I just do them the right way. Plus, doing the repairs keeps me "in shape" for the next house the old lady wants to buy (Ha Ha Ha).... Of course, Mr. Landlord will get hit with all the receipts when it's time for me to "check out"...

20. duckhead Follow Befriend 3 threads 81 comments

    65   2:40pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Frankly I am appalled by the lack of respect shown to DUCKHEADS around here. If Iwog says he can paint a whole house in one day I believe him! After all have you ever seen a ducker paint??? Well I can tell you we have some tricks, for instance after we sand, we flap our wings and all the dust is gone *POOF* then after we wipe everything down we flap our wings again and *POOF* everything is INSTANTLY DRY. Then we runaround on our little duck feet taping and masking everything so fast you didn’t even know we did it!!!! After that we prime then flap our wings and *POOF* everything is INSTANTLY DRY, then all we have to do is paint the whole house then we flap our wings and *POOF* everything is instantly dry, then we peel up all the tape and masking, pack up, clean, nice. Easily done in one day!!! CHABOOMBA

21. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 210 comments

    66   2:43pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says I'm not saying iwog's budget is unrealistic, but after seeing a nearly $3,000 bill to repair two toilets, and bathroom floors, I can see why being a landlord isn't for everyone. $3k for the repair sounds a little expensive you probably have to admit. Full bathroom renovations can be done for that much. If the landlord was little more proactive it sounds like resealing the toilet was all that was needed. If you ask that one poster that keeps posting about how little building costs are, he'll probably tell you he could build 1/3 house for $3k (haha) Anyway, I agree that budgeting $100/mo for a 4 bedroom house could be low, but if was well maintained to begin with, it really shouldn't be much higher. Curious as long as you've been renting, how many times have you needed a major 1k+ repair? Many landlord's should be keeping landlord insurance anyway, which is probably 25% higher than homeowner's insurance and would cover major water damage. If the landlord is even more conservative they could opt for home warranty, which isn't the best deal, but would help cap unknown costs.

22. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    67   2:44pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   Protected   duckhead says Frankly I am appalled by the lack of respect shown to DUCKHEADS around here. If Iwog says he can paint a whole house in one day I believe him! After all have you ever seen a ducker paint??? Well I can tell you we have some tricks, for instance after we sand, we flap our wings and all the dust is gone *POOF* then after we wipe everything down we flap our wings again and *POOF* everything is INSTANTLY DRY. Then we runaround on our little duck feet taping and masking everything so fast you didn’t even know we did it!!!! After that we prime then flap our wings and *POOF* everything is INSTANTLY DRY, then all we have to do is paint the whole house. Easily done in one day!!! CHABOOMBA

23. Goran_K Follow Befriend (4) 26 threads 1,566 comments Laguna Beach, CA Premium

    68   2:49pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   zesta says Anyway, I agree that budgeting $100/mo for a 4 bedroom house could be low, but if was well maintained to begin with, it really shouldn't be much higher. I think that's the caveat. Can you really expect a bottom barrel REO built in the 60s to 80s to really be well maintained or to not need some deferred maintenance at some point? I think that expectation is highly unrealistic. Sure you could buy a newer home built in the 90s to 2000s with better quality fixtures and materials, but then your ROI starts to dwindle since those homes are often much more desirable and go for higher prices. All the risk, and potential disasters that face homeowners also face landlords as well.

24. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    69   2:52pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (3)   Protected   BoomAndBustCycle says The renters questioning you live in shit-box rentals and don't appreciate things "done correctly" with "superior materials". They personally wouldn't pay extra for luxuries and nice things, so in their minds, you can't get higher rent for upgrades and repairs. You have no idea what you are talking about. My rentals are premium for the market and I get premium rents accordingly. These are very nice 3 and 4br homes in safe neighborhoods. The fact I've had one single eviction and a 0% vacancy rate in 4 years is all the verification I need that I'm doing things right.

25. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 210 comments

    70   2:59pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Goran_K says zesta says Anyway, I agree that budgeting $100/mo for a 4 bedroom house could be low, but if was well maintained to begin with, it really shouldn't be much higher. I think that's the caveat. Can you really expect a bottom barrel REO built in the 60s to 80s to really be well maintained or to not need some deferred maintenance at some point? I think that expectation is highly unrealistic. Sure you could buy a newer home built in the 90s to 2000s with better quality fixtures and materials, but then your ROI starts to dwindle since those homes are often much more desirable and go for higher prices. All the risk, and potential disasters that face homeowners also face landlords as well. I can agree with all this. It's up to the investor/landlord to correctly identify and manage their properties. If they're adept at doing so, they'll get a great ROI and if not, well they won't be investors for very long. To be honest I think evictions are a landlord's greatest fear, not maintenance issues. That's probably a greater unknown and a bigger potential for loss.

26. pazuzu Follow Befriend 6 threads 198 comments

    71   3:00pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike (1)   iwog: "...all the verification I need that I'm doing things right." LOL the amount of posting you do here says quite the opposite.

27. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    72   3:03pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike (1)   Protected   zesta says To be honest I think evictions are a landlord's greatest fear, not maintenance issues. That's probably a greater unknown and a bigger potential for loss. I just did one and it was very smooth. I started the process when the tenant was 5 days late and wouldn't return phone calls, and finished 2.5 months later. 1 month is paid for by the deposit, the rest would be covered by my insurance although I doubt my loss is even going to exceed the deductible.

28. zesta Follow Befriend 1 threads 210 comments

    73   3:40pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   iwog says zesta says To be honest I think evictions are a landlord's greatest fear, not maintenance issues. That's probably a greater unknown and a bigger potential for loss. I just did one and it was very smooth. I started the process when the tenant was 5 days late and wouldn't return phone calls, and finished 2.5 months later. 1 month is paid for by the deposit, the rest would be covered by my insurance although I doubt my loss is even going to exceed the deductible. I guess it depends. An eviction going to trial could potentially be a big expense especially as it adds to the vacancy or damages caused by a tenant with shallow pockets. What does your insurance cover as it relates to evictions?

29. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    74   3:43pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   zesta says What does your insurance cover as it relates to evictions? I'm not really sure although I think it covers the cost after a deductible. I have my own law firm so I just have the secretary do it all.

30. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    75   5:17pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   I have never seen a landlord's insurance policy that covers lost rent in an eviction... In AZ, I can evict in one month flat, and I'll back up IWOG on the maintenance prices. That 3000 bill is absurd, I just changed 3 toilets, and put in tile floors on an entire house for about that. Maybe if you just called the first handyman out of the phone book, that would be the bill, but if you are serious in this business, you will have someone that works much cheaper for the volume of work you send. AND, it is really helpful to be able to do some of the work yourself, so you can just say a big NO to ridiculous estimates.

31. REpro Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 478 comments San Jose, CA

    76   7:45pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   In TX eviction takes up to 3 weeks. I never hear about insurance covering rental loses due to tenant unpaid. You selected tenant and this is your problem. For small rental portfolio is it necessary to be capable to do most maintenance by myself. If you opt to hire a management company with their friend services, will eat your entire profit alive.

32. REpro Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 478 comments San Jose, CA

    77   8:04pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Maintenance/management cost for huge portfolio of single family houses in multi location, I see as the NEXT DISASTER for all those bank/pension funds backed investment companies growing rapidly all over country and buying everything by cash and sell it to Wall Street. They don’t know it yet until be too late. In past, large RE Investment Company always focuses on multi unit complex under one roof until now. For every small SF investor switching to multifamily building is a normal course of business.

33. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    78   8:32pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   REpro says Maintenance/management cost for huge portfolio of single family houses in multi location, I see as the NEXT DISASTER for all those bank/pension funds backed investment companies growing rapidly all over country and buying everything by cash and sell it to Wall Street. How would it be a disaster? The larger the portfolio, the more spread out the risk. WTF do you care if you have to replace a $10k roof if you're receiving $100k per month in rental income? Besides home repairs are VERY simple to estimate, in fact most of them can be predicted when viewing the house for the first time. Roof in 5 years Water heater in 2 years toilets are old and mechanisms/wax ring should be replaced. And so on.

34. REpro Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 478 comments San Jose, CA

    79   9:32pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Roof over 100 houses replacement vs. one roof over 100 units building. Visiting 100 houses per day or just one multifamily. Do the math???

35. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    80   10:02pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   REpro says Roof over 100 houses replacement vs. one roof over 100 units building. Visiting 100 houses per day or just one multifamily. Do the math??? Is this a joke? Do you really think a REIT purchaser goes out of his way to buy homes with a bad roof? 100 in a row no less? An appraiser can tell you how much longer a roof will last in 30 seconds. Before buying a house, a buyer can estimate the exact repair costs almost to the nearest $100. In fact I've gotten pretty damn good at it myself over the years and I'm no expert. They way you describe it, these homes are being purchased blind. Even in the worst case scenario, even buying these homes without any inspection whatsoever, the odds in a given year of a home needing a new roof is about 1 in 25.

36. REpro Follow Befriend (1) 22 threads 478 comments San Jose, CA

    81   10:50pm Thu 12 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (1)   Dislike   iwog says I have my own law firm so I just have the secretary do it all. iwog says An appraiser can tell you how much longer a roof will last in 30 seconds. Roofs are different. Your appraiser must be better than roofer 30 years in business. OR maybe he is as prosperous as law firm, where secretary do it all. By the way, I don’t remember anyone going to dentist, where his secretary does all work LOL.

37. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,653 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    82   7:39am Fri 13 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   REpro says Roofs are different. Your appraiser must be better than roofer 30 years in business. It's obvious you have no experience with any of this. I'll leave it at that.

38. E-man Follow Befriend (31) 34 threads 2,612 comments San Jose, CA Premium

    83   9:09am Fri 13 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   Protected   "To be honest I think evictions are a landlord's greatest fear, not maintenance issues. That's probably a greater unknown and a bigger potential for loss." Zesta, For an inexperience landlord, yes. However, it is much worse for a tenant. Almost no landlords will rent to a tenant with an eviction on their record. Therefore, the landlord and investor forum boards advocate to all landlords that if they're going to file an eviction, go through with it. Put an eviction on the tenant's report. There is a price to be paid for every action. Right or wrong. I had an applicant recently that has been looking for a rental for over 3 years. She said no one would rent to her because she has an eviction on her record in early 2009. She and her two teen daughters have been living in a relative's living for all these time. She's really tired and exhausted with the search and rejection. She would pay 4 months in advance if I'm willing to rent to her. How's that for an experience?

39. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    84   11:38am Fri 13 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   E-man says Almost no landlords will rent to a tenant with an eviction on their record. Therefore, the landlord and investor forum boards advocate to all landlords that if they're going to file an eviction, go through with it. Put an eviction on the tenant's report. There is a price to be paid for every action. Right or wrong. I agree, I have only rented to one tenant with an eviction. He lost his job in 2008, and was evicted for failure to pay rent. He got another job six months later, caught up on his late bills. Even his evicting landlord gave him a good reference, that he left the place clean, and it was merely the job loss that led to his eviction. Given that, I took a chance on him, and he paid more up front to get the place.

40. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 56 threads 4,081 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

    85   3:07pm Mon 10 Jun 2013   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like   Dislike   hey how did the market do since you posted this, call it lazy?

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