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Why Romney is winning and why he will win

By CaptainShuddup   Follow   Thu, 19 Jul 2012, 12:18pm   13,779 views   225 comments
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/226943-poll-romney-opens-up-big-lead-nationally

Mitt Romney has opened up 7 percent lead over President Obama nationally, according to the latest survey from conservative polling outlet Rasmussen.

Romney took 50 percent of the vote against Obama’s 43. It’s the first time Romney has hit 50 percent in the poll and is his largest lead over the president to date.

The disappointing jobs data released last week could be weighing the president down. Rasmussen found that only 38 percent of those polled said they approved of the president’s handling of the economy, versus 48 that disapproved.

Still, the poll could be an outlier, as most polls show a considerably tighter race. According to Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Romney holds only a 1 percent lead over Obama, while the president holds a one-point lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

The RCP average includes Romney’s seven-point Rasmussen lead, as well as a few other potential outliers, including an Associated Press poll that shows Obama up by eight and a Reuters poll that shows Obama up by seven — both of which were released this week.

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll of 500 likely voters has a 3 percent margin of error.

Him draw bad card...

Most Liked Comments

1. robertoaribas Follow Befriend (23) 55 threads 3,810 comments Scottsdale, AZ robertoaribas's website

   1   3:42pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike   I would save quite a bit of money, if Rmoney wins. I now have 11 homes, soon to be 14, and his business tax ideas are much more friendly to someone like me, then Obama's. BUT, I got here, because education was reasonably priced, and between financial aid and work, plus scholarships, I was able to go to college and graduate school. I want a world where others have the opportunities I had, not what the US is becoming: A country like Brazil, where if you aren't born into a wealthy family, you can never achieve anything.

2. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   2   2:49pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Protected   CaptainShuddup says Well only Jesus should write in Parables. Everyone else is taken for face value, ESPECIALLY Politicians. You're so disingenuous at times I doubt you care about anything at all. What's important to you besides cheap oil? Anything?

3. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

   3   3:37pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Also,...haha,....let's see what that graph looks like after the debates. Really, and I do mean this as serious advice. If you want to bet on Romney, and get good odds. Open an IEM account, and buy one third of your position right after each debate. But 1.5 to 1 odds you can get right now looks pretty good, if you want to believe the polls. Invest 500, and get back 750 (plus your 500) if Romney wins.

4. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

   4   4:52pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   robertoaribas says A country like Brazil, where if you aren't born into a wealthy family, you can never achieve anything. I agree that's where the right wants to take us. Not that it's impossible for the truly gifted, but in the future we are headed toward, social mobility will be MUCH tougher. It will be much more difficult to even identify extremely gifted children, if they are poor. We are already way down the list on social mobility compared to many countries, including a couple where a complete education is free.

5. monkframe Follow Befriend 7 threads 187 comments Pacifica, CA

   5   7:45pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   I only wish there were more difference between these two candidates. Supreme Court picks, sure. Some rights for some long-underserved groups, maybe. But in large part, the empire rolls on. Google "lily pad bases" if you don't believe it.

6. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

   6   11:15am Fri 20 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (5)   Dislike (2)

7. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

   7   3:35pm Fri 20 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   Honest Abe says That straight A student didn't do it on his own, someone else made that happen. I agree that the student is the one who earned their success. But if the students was poor, thank goodness there were good public schools where his or her gifts could take root where he or she could get the support they deserve. (yeah, yeah, I know...public schools aren't all good. True. All private schools aren't good either. It is very tough in some neighborhoods for a public school to work miracles. They take everyone that the private schools don't get. But even there, in those worst neighborhoods, a lot of children in unfortunate situations are given opportunities that they deserve and that they ( yes THEY) take advantage of, at least sometimes.

8. xrpb11a Follow Befriend (4) 2 threads 787 comments

   8   6:47pm Sun 22 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike   No. I find it insulting to insert a Business Owner Demeaning sentence in the middle of a normal stump speech, just to jazz up his base. bdrasin says You find it insulting when someone says: "The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together"?

9. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

   9   2:27pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)   Protected   CaptainShuddup says Well not according to Obama, how could you vote for someone that doesn't respect your hard work? Talk about defeating self interest. Yes, I defeat my short term interest in favor of my long term interest. Business sucks now. Other lawyers have abandoned their former practice in favor of bankruptcy so competition is crazy. No one has any money, but I'm doing fine because of my transition to landlordism and speculation in markets you hate so much. I want to save capitalism so I can earn money again. You want to destroy capitalism and force me to survive on hoarding.

10. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    10   2:38pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   CaptainShuddup says Yeah but by your own admission you've been relegated to slinging shacks for a living. That's not what I said. Besides part of Obamacare is a tax increase on rental income. If I earn over $250,000, I'll get a tax increase on slinging my shacks. Not gonna happen with 8 properties, but I can dream.

11. bdrasin Follow Befriend 6 threads 490 comments Alameda, CA

    11   3:00pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Honest Abe says bdrasin - that doesn't change anything. What he said was what he meant...if you got a business you didn't build that, someone else made that happen. Its all collective, liberal, commie hogwash. Got it. If you built a business, it means that you also built all of the infrastructure which helped made your success possible, presumably through time travel. Anyone who doesn't believe that is a communist. Makes perfect sense.

12. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

    12   3:25pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   If you think Romney will win you should open an account here: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm You can get a good deal. Here is the graph showing price history. Obama has been favored all along, but his chances have gone up since SCOTUS ruled on "Obamacare." Obama now looks the best he has looked since ROmney secured the nomination. Seriously open an account. It looks like Romney is close to .40 (worth $1.00 if Romney wins). http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm Money doesn't talk. It screams.

13. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

    13   4:21pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Here I found a bigger "book" on the election. http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp They have it about the same or Obama only slightly less favored but presumably you could put on a big bet at these price. In other words at a casino now you could bet 100 on Romney, and get back 140 (plus your 100), if Romney wins. If you want to bet on Obama you have to bet 170, to get back 100 (plus your 170). Why are those numbers different ? 140 versus 170 ? That's because of the book makers edge (profit). Split the difference and it's 155 (equivalent to about .39 on the IEM), even better than the current price on IEM. If I didn't know better, I would think that Rasmussen might be trying to pull a Barclays Libor move and get people to bet on Romney. Just kidding (I put this line to help Thomas.wong understand the libor scandal). What if the Casinos have taken too many bets globally with people betting on ROmney at these great odds ? It sure would relieve some of the pressure if Romney odds would improve at least for a while and they could lay off their risk with some cheaper bets on Obama. Then again, maybe the only reason odds are so good for Romney (for betting on Romney that is (odds against his winning)) is that too many people are betting on Obama. What if it's the billionares hedging. If the rich benefit as much as some think with a Romney win, shouldn't they be placing huge bets on Obama, to hedge ? MAybe that's the reason Obama is so far ahead with the money. The billionaires hedge. There's the reason for the BS polls. Billionaires are trying to swing "the market" to where they can put on their billionaires hedge bets at better prices. Stupid money....or is it ?

14. Buster Follow Befriend (7) 22 threads 325 comments

    14   7:33pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   CaptainShuddup says Well only Jesus should write in Parables. Everyone else is taken for face value, ESPECIALLY Politicians. Amen. Lord Romney and LDS Kingdom forever!

15. xrpb11a Follow Befriend (4) 2 threads 787 comments

    15   8:31pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   yeah, well your medical premiums are, as well as your deductibles... The effect is the same as a tax increase. iwog says CaptainShuddup says I want to save you from Obama, I'm voting Romney for YOUR own good. Bullshit. I see no danger from Obama. My taxes aren't going up under Obamacare and I already pay for medical insurance for my employees.

16. Bill Frank Follow Befriend 1 threads 16 comments

    16   10:24pm Thu 19 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (3)   Dislike (1)   Love how some folks get all jazzed up about Obama vs. Romney, Repubs vs. Dems. It's all just a grand show for mass consumption with the ruling elite winning regardless of who wins the "election." Sorry, what you think is a choice is really a non-choice. American Democracy: RIP.

17. CaptainShuddup Follow Befriend (1) 249 threads 4,739 comments

    17   7:05am Fri 20 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   marcus says Pathetic that you don't understand the point. NO You don't understand the insult that is and the slap in the face of every hard working son of a bitch that ever made something of them selves and a better future for their kids. Marcus your parents are more responsible for your success, like your education, your career, and the values and ethics you have not Obama. You should have greater self esteem, don't let the bastard get you down. Fuck Elizabeth too, she can make a Tee Pee in her living room and play cow boy and Indians in her make believe fantasy world she lives in. But she probably wouldn't follow through with that either.

18. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

    18   11:14am Fri 20 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   CaptainShuddup says Every speech Obama does is to divide the country. His speeches always have an "Us against them" under tone and theme. Yeah, it's terrible the way he's playing his cards, and that he wants to be reelected, the way he talks truthfully about the differences between what people get with him versus Romney.

19. iwog Follow Befriend (48) 274 threads 12,571 comments 47 male Lafayette, CA Premium

    19   2:20pm Fri 20 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (2)   Dislike   Protected   xrpb11a says yeah, well your medical premiums are, as well as your deductibles... The effect is the same as a tax increase. My insurance premiums go up every year by double digits and have for over a decade. Every......single......year. Do you know what I'd say if my insurance premiums only went up 10% this year? I'd say "wonderful!"

20. marcus Follow Befriend (5) 168 threads 5,091 comments

    20   2:22pm Fri 20 Jul 2012   Share   Quote   Permalink   Like (4)   Dislike (2)